First of the dead rail horses from BC weekend (at least the first I noticed) just won the 8th at CD at $17.60.
lol i just posted the same thing.I was waiting for one to run back
The only winner i\'ve had so far today.
That was the second one to run back. The first was yesterday in the 8th at MNR. Also won. Paid $5.00.
So the dead rail was on both days or just on Saturday? I saw where Wise Dan has been entered at CD on Thanksgiving Day!!
bstaubs22 Wrote:
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> So the dead rail was on both days or just on
> Saturday? I saw where Wise Dan has been entered at
> CD on Thanksgiving Day!!
Just to clarify, Wise Dan wasn\'t tagged with an \"X\", the dead rail symbol, for his BC performance. He paired.
so should we figure that he will not move up as much on Thurs?
I\'m confused now because watching the replay, HE is down on the inside when they turn for home and seems like he could have gone on but he almost looks like hes stuck in quick stand.
I am (finally) entering all of the dead rail horses into my DRF StableMail.
When you get to Hurricane Ike, watch it: the DRF search engine returns TWO horses with the same name.
Yes, that happens at times, as names seem to get reused after some years pass; what makes my find on Hurricane Ike stick out is that the two Ike\'s in this case were foaled only one year apart.
The 2007 foal out of Graeme Hall is the one that ran in this years BC...well, that\'s what it said in the the DRF; I didn\'t check any lip tattoos or anything.
Beware!
Bstaubs,
Most of the way WD was off the rail,hence no X.WD in Thursday against slower than the BC field he faced and although he paired his fig, he only did a little running,may be favorite.
Mike
bstaubs22 Wrote:
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> I\'m confused now because watching the replay, HE
> is down on the inside when they turn for home and
> seems like he could have gone on but he almost
> looks like hes stuck in quick stand.
I\'m going to defer to the TG experts on this one. Unless I am blind, Wise Dan doesn\'t have an X next to his BC Day figure.
So when a horse pairs like Wise Dan and will be the likely favorite on Thursday, should we think he is a vulnerable favorite and may regress off his fig or could he be ready for a new top?
Bstaubs,
Tough to say, he last pp line looks ugly but he ran with much better and paired. Depends on odds,race dynamics.If you ask different sheet players about whether he\'ll regress or go forward, you\'ll surely get different answers.
As JB will tell you, after you get comfortable with the sheets, you will make your own interpretations.
Mike
Rick
Girolamo runs in the cigar mile on Sat off the X, I didn\'t like him in the BC, what do you all think on Sat?
Yep. I would also point out that it\'s not a great idea to blindly bet any group of horses, coming off a dead rail or not. There\'s an edge because the public will be downgrading the horse off a bad race when we know there is an excuse, but the horse still has to be good enough if it runs its race.
Having said that, there have been dead rails not just those two days, but on the days leading up to them, and some at other tracks as well, and several of the horses that ran over them figure to start running back this weekend. People using our data will have a big edge over those who use Ragozin, Beyer or anything else, unless they keep track of dead rails themselves.
In fact, I think I may do the ROTW about a race that has one in it...
Let me ask you TGJB...if a horse runs on a dead rail...and then comes back on regular rest...is this a negative?
What I\'m driving at is...isn\'t it more taxing to run on a dead rail? May take something out of a horse because even if he/she didn\'t run his/her race...the horse still had to run over the dead rail and maybe that\'s MORE tiring? Even though it may look like a non-effort number-wise?
Would it take awhile to snap back to a previous top or might it take awhile to shake off the whole \"dead rail\" thing?
HP
Alan brought this up a couple of weeks ago and I started laughing, not because it\'s a stupid question but because that particular discussion has been going on for at least 20 years. I understand the logic of that idea, but all I can say is that it doesn\'t seem to work that way. In fact, an unusually high percentage of dead rail horses come back to run tops, causing at least one guy (Charlie Singer, you out there?) to refer to the dead rail races as conditioners. And he said it 20 years ago.
Gee. As long as it\'s not a stupid question. Thanks a lot. HP
I live on the beach and the difference between running on the dry sand and wet packed sand is nite and day.
The dry sand you just wear out and quit running much sooner. Could this be considered a \"conditoner\"? Maybe! Or maybe the other wet packed surface allows you to keep running much harder for a lot longer.
These kinds off Bias\'s provide good winning wagering opportunities like an extreme speed bias that killed a closers chances or falsely pumped up a winner.
Tab the Ronnie Werner sprinter filly he ran in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. She never had a chance down there.
SECRET GYPSY 124 Werner, Ronny W.
05NOV10CD7 ft 7 1:22:31 STK1000k 11 19ΒΌ 124 X12 1w
close up, rail, bid 3/8 pl, stead, drifted out bit 1/4 pl, tired
Best I can tell on synthetics is the Dead Rail\'s seem to manifest themselves in a manner that effects a path(or path\'s) off the fence and not necessarily the rail itself - guessing it\'s almost like a track bias issue . ..
Churchill Tomorrow: check out Direct Line (3rd), Lubango (8th) and Taptown (10th)....especially the last if he gets in...made a nice middle move near the rail and flattened down the lane.
alm Wrote:
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> Churchill Tomorrow: check out Direct Line (3rd),
> Lubango (8th) and Taptown (10th)....especially the
> last if he gets in...made a nice middle move near
> the rail and flattened down the lane.
Taptowne ran on Nov 4 and was given a 1w yet is not given an \"X\".....what to make of that? Any thoughts?
I think TG assigns the X to horses that race the entire distance (or nearly the entire distance) on the rail....Taptown broke from the 6 post and angled in after about a quarter mile...my point about the horse had to do with the fact that he didn\'t start to run until that point and then stayed on the rail the rest of the way...he made a strong middle move into contention and then tired badly (or appeared to.)
While he might not have earned the X, he still had the disadvantage of trying to win from the rail. He is also a lightly raced maiden and might get a lot out of the effort, X or no. We will see.
Thanks. I am curious about Apart in the Clark. Reviewing his race on BC Friday, he was 1W on the first turn and most of the backstretch before going 4W to circle the field. His final # makes sense, but I am wondering if it is better than it looked. He looks a little slow for these and may be an underlay, but as we saw with Blame/Stall last year, improving 3YOs are dangerous at this time of year.
Meanwhile, the Cigar Mile is a better race than the BC Dirt Mile.
I\'ve Stable Alerted (like Google a noun becomes a verb) these horses from the post Breeders\' Cup sheets as well. A number of horses came off similar situation in May and returned and won at healthy prices in the spring. On Turkey Day at Hollywood Riveting Reason had dead rail mark from B Cup undercard. Won and paid $2.60. As noted there\'s Girolamo in the Aqu Cigar Mile. Then there\'s War Whoop in Saturday\'s last at Churchill. He certainly won\'t be 1:5. Enjoy the holiday weekend racing.