...it\'s time to go back to the drawing board on synthetic figures.
That being said, I think the figures are solid gold.
Because of the pace in many synthetic races, it\'s difficult to find a comparable figure for synth and dirt. If she can run a negative number this year at Oaklawn without getting out of a canter, then you should be wondering what number she would be able to throw down at full speed with a decent pace in front of her. But, I\'m on here to listen to you guys because you are figure handicappers and I\'m not. I do think there are horses who can defy speed figures. They mentioned that on Racing Post from England- calling her a speed figure handicappers nightmare. Certainly Zenyatta could be one. I think Buckpasser would have been another one. (And I am not comparing her to Buckpasser) Horses who only do what they have to do when they have to do it are very difficult to gauge regardless of what you use to handicap. I believe she can run as fast as she has to. I think she can come home in 22 and change and probably equal her last mile split of just under 1:34 at Churchill. I don\'t think Smith will let her stay in back as long as she usually does and her biomechanics keeps her accelerating in the stretch with each stride. But I am open minded and realize I could be wrong. My argument is that there are so many who aren\'t open minded enough to say that she could very well win, numbers or not. I do understand from a betting standpoint, wanting to make money she is not a good bet. I would think any bettor, numbers or not, would have at last one ticket with her included \"Just in case\". Hope you have a great and profitable BC.
Point well taken, Footlick.
I decided some time ago that she wouldn\'t win but am willing to look at this afresh. I remember how I lost a chance at a nice tri and super keeping Eight Belles out of the picture because I was stubborn (there must be a term related to misogyny that relates to female horses).
I have to admit now that she has a real chance. The extra furlong benefits her and hurts most of the others and if the track comes up the least bit slow, that works for her, too. She does seem to have another gear (watch her last again) and I am sure her dirt form will be at least as good. But if only one of LAL and Blame and QR and either FD runs their best, she has to run a big number to win--a new top. If she were 5-1, I would be sure to have her on top in some tickets. as you suggest. We both know that won\'t happen, though, so I will have to let her beat me and figure it\'s good for racing...
Leamas