QR must be sent hard from the gate practically eliminating any chance for a moderate pace and Haynesfield. QR takes them as far as he can. A Donn like performance will be required.
Who benefits the most?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I think he does. The Whitney seemed to show that he can\'t beat other good horses with a slow half. If he wins, it\'s because he\'s too far out in front to catch.
I\'m leaning against, though, given lukewarm works.
Joe,
QR has 12 races, broke bad in 3 of them and assumably loads first and sits in the gate the longest.If your scenario is correct and QR tries to go quickly down the road, then LAL,Blame and Z benefit.
Not certain QR can outrun the gate quick Haynesfield early and QR\'s worse performance was when he was inside behind horses in last years Travers(wet track)
Mike
Velasquez doesn\'t have to send at all. I can easily see QR stalking First Dude & Haynesfield with a cozy spot inside saving ground. Plethcer and Johnny are smart enough to realize that\'s their best shot
I agree with Uncle Buck and if I liked QR before the post draw I would like him more now. I would say the opposite for Big Drama and Girolamo who are in a very bad spot E
Trainer is on record saying this horse does not like being down on the inside. This is public knowledge, and you can bet Asmussen/Dominguez - Romans/Albarado are aware of it too. Watch his race replays and you will see that they have not let this horse run on the rail since the Travers last summer. Watch how they run him in the Hal\'s Hope after he broke clear from the 2 post. Then watch how they ran him in the Donn. They clearly don\'t want him on the rail inside the other speed.
The way I see it TAP/Johhny V have two choices: send QR clear and get him out and off the rail like in the Hal\'s Hope, or let the outside speed take off from the 3 and 4 hole and hope you can drop over behind them and assume an outside stalking position like in the Donn. Johnny V is about as good out of the gate as you will see, QR is pretty headstrong (we can\'t even be sure he won\'t act up behind the gate) and this is the Breeder\'s Cup - he\'s not 2/5 to beat this field on talent alone. So I would think sending him would be safer and play more to both the jock and the horse\'s natural strengths. If you do it the other way and take back you have to worry about at least one of those other speed horses not taking off and race riding you all the way around along the rail, with the other speed horse out in front and perhaps on an uncontested lead. In fact, if QR doesn\'t break well I would bet dollars to donuts that this type of trip is a very likely outcome.
I\'m not going to pretend that I know what the race tactics/trip are actually going to be. And I\'ve seen enough gate bobbles in my time to know that it\'s a risky proposition to handicap a race based on what you think the intent is going to be out of the gate. But if I were a betting man, and I am, I would say the 1 hole would have been this stable\'s last choice.
The good news for QR fans is that the horse has shown that he can break from the inside and work out an outside stalking trip either by sending or dropping back and over. But can he do it against this field?
I already didn\'t really like his sheet much and don\'t think 1 1/4 is his best distance anyway. So this is just another knock against him IMO.
Makes the race easier to play for me.
Agreed Uncle Buck. The dialogue here that this is doom for QR is baffling and illogical to say the least. Nevermind that the rail absolutely dominated the Breeders Cup back in 2006 here at CD.
I really appreciate your comments. It seems to me, however, having watched (is it thousands?) of John V races that the jockey will indeed drop in behind whatever speed takes off and angle out as soon as he is able. When he does this he will assume a pressing position off the one or two leaders. He almost never rides the rail and this horse has been trained to be less keen for this race...or so it seems.
Sek,
The rail itself may be fine this weekend. We are speaking of QR possibly being pinned inside or forced hard early.Guaranteed this horse will pull/grab if he\'s pinned down inside.He only works outside of horses in the AM and raced only once in his career down inside(his worst effort, not fig)
If you like him, no problem, if you disliked him,the post adds to your dislike given the way the early part looks on paper going in.Having said all that, he\'ll get a perfect trip and whistle!!
Good luck!
Mike
Alm,
Agree 100% with you, but maybe for different reasons. Not so much because of watching Johnny V. race, but simply because the way this horse runs and what the trainer thinks of the horse.
1. They have said many many times that Quality Road prefers a target.
2. They probably have at least mild concerns about his ability to get 1 1/4. Certainly not as much concern as many on this board, but at least some concern, as reflected by their change in recent training methods. (longer, slower works, seemingly teaching him to rate kinder and relax. Hard to believe they will \"send\")
I am just afraid that slower and more moderate fractions mean a slower and more moderate QR. His bigger stretch performances (Florida Derby, Donn) were off of fast fractions. Not sure if that is coincidence or not, but the race shape that would seem to suit him best would be if Haynesfield goes out in 46 and 1:10 and JV angles out and gives him his patented \"favorites\" ride in the 2 path.
Jimbo I cannot fathom them (team Tap) not sending. Horses in general, and this colt in particular, almost always show speed after being on the shelf and QR\'s past performances verify this tenet.
At Churchill, at ten furlongs, this post is beyond horrible. This one figures to be off at double his morning line, or higher and while his best contends he will not be on any of my tickets. bbb
Bellsbendboy,
Respect your view on his chances to win, as you are certainly allowed that. And I don\'t like the post. However, he isn\'t going off at double his morning line. You are smoking something very good, if you believe that.
Jimbo,
Zenyatta will probably be close to even money, that pushes up the odds on the others.
Blame and LAL are horses liked by many, while the knocks on QR have been documented. He will be over his ML and may well be pretty close to double at near 10/1, assuming the 2 mentioned get strong support too. Blames\'s CD form will take money and Baffert is always popular with the crowd. We\'ll see in a few days.
P-Dub,
I will hope and pray that zenyatta is even money, but I really don\'t believe she will be near that. I see 2-1 on her.
The shorter the price on her is, at least I have a chance to get SOME of the money back I have lost betting against her a dozen times or so..............
She shouldn\'t be, thats something we all agree on.
But with the hype, unbeaten record, defending champion, last career race, etc.. these situations often lead to an overbet horse despite the large field. I think she gets huge mutuel support and is below her ML close to even money.
She went off at 5/2 last year and the books in England having her dropping now to 2/1. Can\'t see her going off at anything more than that.
Alm, I agree with you that this is a patented Johnny V move. And he\'s done it with this horse a few times. I may be wrong, but I don\'t think he is going to find that to be such an easy move here, not with Haynesfield and First Dude to his immediate outside. Neither one of these are need the lead types, so I don\'t think they will come out gunning by default, although Etched probably will. FD and HF have enough tractable speed to keep QR pinned down on the inside if he doesn\'t go early. So I am pretty sure if QR breaks clean he comes out trying to clear FD and HF. He\'s going to have to. If you trained FD or HF and you knew a dangerous horse like QR had the rail and didn\'t like the inside, what would you tell your jock to do?
This is the BC Classic. Imagine the adrenaline. If you were TAP, would you take a chance on getting QR pinned to the inside.
You are probably right, but funny things go through jockeys\' minds (do they have minds?)at Churchill and they might not start raceriding right out of the gate...it\'s a long way to go while you\'re looking sideways.
And while I admit there\'s no telling what has actually been in TAPs mind as he has been training QR, it seems that he has been trying to take the edge off the horse. All in all, I like Blame the most, but if the worst scenario does not develop for QR, he\'s likely to be extremely dangerous off a good trip.
TAP on QR\'s rail draw:
\"That wasn\'t the post position we were hoping for but it\'s probably less of a DISADVANTAGE in a 12 horse field.It\'s a terrible post in the Kentucky Derby\"
Guess TAP does not subscribe to the ground loss, ground loss, ground loss theory in this case.
Mike
Miff - I don\'t think has anything to do with ground loss. He\'s clearly alluding to a 12 horse field vs. a 20 horse field in the Kentucky Derby. As in...it\'s more of a disadvantage to be inside 19 other horses as opposed to just 11.
HP
Agree completely
HP,
Totally agree.JB\'s comments suggest that the rail for QR is not a disadvantage.Can only imagine he feels it\'s ground saving, notwithstanding it appears to be a tactical disadvantage as to the dynamics of this race on paper.
Mike
Mike-- go look up which post has won the most derbies. Hint-- it\'s 1, last time I checked. And if someone has an easy way to check average finish position by post (relative to field size), I would love to see that too.
JB,
The winning post position thing is not an issue,the horses talent is. Some horses in post one that lost the derby may have won if posted elsewhere.Check out this year,LAL derby trip from the rail.
Just about anyone who gets paid for managing or understands race dynamics knows that the options that a jockey has in any race out of a chute are far less if rail posted.
The rail is meaningless to a style like Zenyatta, but pretty critical for a style like QR.Why do you think that every year trainers choose the far outside post for the derby rather than the rail.
Mike
Just about anyone? Really?
Present company excepted. LMAO. Waiting DECADES now for you to learn. I put up some horses earlier if you need to refer...
Good luck tmw! HP
HP,
If you have it handy, please put up the post positions of the derby winners for the past 22 years.How many were from post 1, I forgot.
The poison rail ties tightly into the introduction of the auxiliary gate which causes the first 3 slotted horses to angle off at the gap to avoid hitting the rail. I\'m sure you and JB knew that already.
Mike
Spot on Mike, although the inside four posts are affected. The chute bends like an old paper clip and if all the horses ran in a straight line, at a similar rate of speed, the rail horse is driven into the fence or has to check sharply, or both.
TAP can say what he wants, and has left it up to the boy but you can bet that if Quality Road breaks well, a big if, JV will send. bbb
Miff - Lighten up. I\'m joking. Whatever you say is right. Good luck! HP
Miff-- I\'m sure YOU know that in 22 years, with on average field of 18 or so, the average result would have the rail winning once, and there\'s probably at least a 30% chance that figure would be zero, randomly. And that\'s without looking at the horses who started from the rail.
But you knew that.
Will that still apply to the Classic, where no auxiliary gate will be necessary, so they could move the main gate out?
Not at all \"Bit\". Mike gets all juiced up, like many of us on big race days and got to the closing arguments before presenting a solid case. Nevertheless, his premise is accurate as the rail, at CD, traveling ten poles is as bad a post as there is.
Although, if you reduce the field size; the disadvantage is not as serious, as team TAP (three for a million at the BC) rather weakly, and repeatedly, has pointed out since the draw.
For Quality Road who has more number power than these, admittedly over his kind of track(s) he is still a tough bet even at twice his morning line, which he will be. The last time he saw this amazon beast eye to eye, he freaked at the gate at some twenty to one and had to be ordered off.
There is some fifteen hundred feet before the turn and if JV gets this one to
shutoff, get in the clear, and behave it will be a solid accomplishment, then he
can start worrying about holding off the hundred year freak and a pair
of talented grinders in what is clearly going to be quick splits. bbb