...the more time I spent on this over the weekend, the more I am leaning in the direction of Blame over Quality Road in the Claissc.
A few reasons:
I think he is a true 2 turn horse and so I think theres a legit reason to throw out the JCG loss to Haynesfield
He has had very good results over the Churchill track. Just like with Super Saver before the Derby, at Churchill more so than any other track, I weight affinity for the surface very importantly.
I will wait to see if Pletcher horses are exploding during the rest of the card before making any final decisions but if I had to pick now (assuming a neutral draw for Blame), that\'s how I would go.
Thoughts?
J-Covello,
Wouldn\'t want to talk you off a horse, but that last race was miserable against Haynesfield. Really miserable. I guess the litmus test for me was what you think of his win over Quality Road at Saratoga. I don\'t believe that was a good race for Quality Road and I think we saw Blame\'s best that day. To me, for Blame to beat Quality Road he has to run his best AND have Quality Road have an off race. Considering Blame looks to be either shorter priced than Quality Road or at best, the same price, that makes him a bad play IMO.
Speaking of getting into trouble, the more I look at the Turf Mile, I am falling in love with Sydney\'s Candy. He gets a few pounds as a 3-year old, figures to get the easiest kind of lead, comes into the race fresh, and will be on a turf course that sometimes has shown to favor horses with early speed. Plus, I get a pretty damn good price. (thinking 8-1 or so). I know betting against Goldikova is sticking your head in the lion\'s mouth, but if you are going to beat her, I like somebody to get away on the front end and do it. Not sure I want to look for a closer to outkick her. Give me an outside post for Goldikova, translating to a wide trip, and I will feel even better. I keep remembering how Ouija Board got beat the year she lost, where she was also best, when Frankel\'s horse went wire to wire (Intercontinental?). I think she was a half or full to Banks Hill. Sydney\'s Candy is a 3 year old, so could even improve a bit. And I believe that the way he won that Delmar race, going head and head through quick fractions, makes the decent figure he got translate to an even better figure. (I can hear TGAB\'s voice telling me \"be careful about adjusting figures, it is a slippery slope\")
Hi Jimbo:
Very good points. However, with regard to his effort against Haynesfield.
Do you really believe the JCGC was important to win for Blame\'s connections? Or is it more likely that off a 2 month layoff they wanted to just lay back and make one run with a nice pull up thank you, see you in 5 weeks on our favorite surface?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
A couple of things:
You can read Blame\'s chart several different ways...one of these is to consider the last race a tune-up for the Breeders Cup...even if it was not intended that way. I agree that he will run the best he can at Churchill...it\'s his track. Reading it that way, he\'s my key horse against the mare...and I can\'t see Quality Road denting this point-of-view. Nor Haynesfield. I think they will make this race shape whatever it becomes, but that they won\'t win it.
As for Sydney\'s Candy, I don\'t think he\'s the one. His turf race wasn\'t that fast and I don\'t want to bet a horse to improve just to make a bet. I think the mare is always dangerous, but we know what she can do racing in this country. She won\'t necessarily step up her game, particularly at her age. The horse that might step up a level, because he can use legal medications not permissable in Europe, is Paco Boy. Let\'s see if there is a medication change with him. I will key him various ways, particularly horizontally.
Joe B,
I don\'t like to over-analyze trainer intent. Through the lens I am looking through, even if he wasn\'t fully cranked, it was a lousy performance. He showed SLIGHT momentum late to 2nd, but this wasn\'t Monarchos closing into Congaree to set him up for the DErby, or REal Quiet closing into INdian Charlie, to set him up for his next race.
He was very flat.
And I think very little of Haynesfield, which makes the performance worse IMHO.
jim
Espoir City
Etched
First Dude
Haynesfield
Morning Line
QR
Kinda favors the horses in behind them that work out the best ground saving trip right?
Even though he won by just a head, Blame was definitely widening his lead as they crossed the line at Saratoga. Haynesfield won that JCGC so easily. Scary to leave off for me. I wonder if he\'s freaking at the right time. What do you guys think of Gio Ponti to hit the board in classic if he runs there? Racing and working on grass but he\'s bred for dirt. Interesting preparation by Clement if he is going for the Classic. You think he gets up there for a piece?
I felt Blame just bounced in the Jockey Club after running a huge race to run down Quality Road even though that one set slow fractions. Should have gotten the bounce out of his system in last and I don\'t see him having issues with the distance...
Quality Road - Distance challenged- When he wins a race past 1 1/8 against top level horses I\'ll be the first to admit I know nothing about horseracing. I\'ll play him for 3rd or fourth
Zenyatta- at 2/1 or less coming from dead last against top dirt horses I \'ll let her beat me..
Looking at Lucky-I need him to revert to his old form of getting in trouble in every race because he scares me a bit looks like he can run all day too..I\'ll protect with him as his odds should be over 8/1.
I really think Blame is top class and I hope he finally gets his due on Saturday..
Jimbo,
Good points as usual, thanks for the thoughts.
I am going to wait to see what I can learn about how they are training down at CD this week and then see how Pletchers horses are running, how the track is playing, etc before I make any final decisions but you have given me some good stuff to think about as usual.
I will let you know who I take because the best play on Saturday will surely be to take the other one :)
BTW, I hate Sydney\'s Candy. Not fast enough and I hate coming into this kind of race off of a layoff. I would use 6 others in that one before I used SC. So, what I just did for you was make it a lock that you are going to cash with that one :)
Haynesfield kind of won the Gold Cup close to the speed of his previous strongest races...and I don\'t think that will win at the BC. I don\'t think he is freaking.
Gio Ponti won\'t beat this group on the dirt. His race last year was more predictable, because he was on a grass-favoring surface. I have a feeling they are more likely to run him in the turf mile and I see him in the mix at the end, but not fast enough to win it.
Covel:
My feelings on SC have also cooled down.
Question for the Board?
Are we forgetting about Court Vision OR should I just forget about him?
Good Luck,
Joe B
Joe B,
SC worked like s--t and missed a start,also working poorly before that missed start too.CD is a sand based turf course and not hardish like the Cali turf courses or the NY turf courses this year.I\'m pretty certain that SC wants it firm/hard and it does not seem that it will be that way on Sat. Some modest rain will actually firm up that CD sand based course but the forecast does not seem to call for any rain to speak of.
Court Vision is ok, but if you follow the Euro scene at all and believe in translated speed figs, Goldikova and Paco Boy tower over these,on their best.
Good Luck,
Mike
Where are you getting those \"translated speed figs\"?
Mike:
Good point regarding the Euros in here. Curious to see if Gio Ponti goes to the Classic with this as part of the reason.
Latest weather models call for zero precip in Louisville this week.
One last remark because I can\'t ever keep quiet about old issues on this board. Anyone notice Garcia being replaced by Leparoux on Al Khali?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
JCovelo and Alm,
I hadn\'t heard about Sydney\'s Candy working poorly and as I listen to Welsch\'s report, sounds like he didn\'t love it but also didn\'t hate it.
However, you both say Sydney\'s Candy is too slow. Not sure I buy that. The top is 2.5 and he gets both 3 lbs and an extremely likely 1w/1w trip. What are the top contenders? Goldikova, obviously is the favorite. She comes off a pair of 1 and change races. You don\'t think Goldikova is losing more than a point of ground to Sydney\'s Candy? I do. I think 2 points of ground if Goldikova draws outside (Goldikova gets weight too, so no factor there). Goldis even money, Sydney\'s CAndy is 10-1. Gio Ponti comes off a \"2\". Another that will lose ground, but this one gives weight too. Paco Boy will be 2nd choice. Also likely to lose ground and gives weight, although Alm points out an intriguing point about 1st time lasix. Have to include Paco Boy on my tickets.
I guess my point is guys that with weight and \"likely\" ground loss factored, Sydney\'s Candy\'s best fits with these. And is a very good price.
However, like I said, the mediocre workouts and the missed race are troublesome, but my guess is that it helps my price.
THis horse winning will not knock me out of the pick-4, that\'s for sure.
Horses that are 10-1 are allowed to have a knock or two. That is why they aren\'t even money!!
Good luck,
Jim
Jimbo,
my guy says SC looked like he was having issues as well this AM.
Welsh is very professional in his comments (I think he does a great job actually) so he tries not to be too harsh in his commentaty on the negative side.
One thing to keep in mind about all of these clocker comments is that they are meaningless unless there is some relevant comparison points.
For example, everyone who saw Blind Luck physically for the first time during Oaks week said she looked terrible. She wasn\'t carrying alot of weight, she looked tucked up, etc. However, the problem with those comments is that\'s how she looks all of the time (she even fooled her connections with her appearance which is why she started off as a claimer). She hadn\'t lost weight because she had gotten knocked out by a prior race, that\'s just her makeup.
I have one horse in particular where weight loss is very indicative of how much the prior race took out of him. We can usually tell when he\'s about to run well (for him) based on how much weight he\'s carrying into a race.
Point of all of this is, each horse is different.
Reason I bring this up is that alot of the same people who talked about how great Sydney\'s Candy moved/looked during derby week are saying the exact opposite now. He isn\'t moving well. I put this next to the fact that there was clearly a sale that didn\'t go through and one reason could have been a minor vet issue (i.e. something that doesn\'t prevent him from running but something that casued a buyer to back away). To be clear, I absolutely don\'t know for sure that\'s what happened but I would say it\'s a logical conclusion based on what we now know about how he\'s not training as well as he did before the Derby.
With all of this said, Jimbo, I probably just locked up the win for you with this long-winded diatribe!
Jcovelo,
thanks for the comments. All good points. Hard to argue.
Jim
For sure, you should take a crack at a 10-1 shot you think has a shot....but the way I look at the numbers on this race Sydney\'s only and therefore best grass race is significantly slower than several others in the race.
He might jump up and outrun all of those, but I don\'t bet that way...I would rather spread around on the others who have run faster or try to guess which of these is most likely to run his best. I don\'t really care about ground loss AS MUCH at this level of competition.
For example, someone else on this string pointed out that Gio Ponti, if he is in the race, will suffer ground loss. That\'s true, but cycle back your memory of his races...this sucker is completely unafraid of running inside and moving through the field. He may drop back but he won\'t necessarily have to go wide.
Good horses are often brave horses (not always.) I think Gio Ponti can run a good one here, but I think this Paco Boy is the absolute threat.
Someone else mentioned Alan Garcia had been replaced on Al Khali...I hadn\'t heard that yet...often with Garcia he makes the move...I care more about where he ends up rather than where he leaves.
Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I felt Blame just bounced in the Jockey Club after
> running a huge race to run down Quality Road even
> though that one set slow fractions. Should have
> gotten the bounce out of his system in last and I
> don\'t see him having issues with the distance...
>
> Quality Road - Distance challenged- When he wins a
> race past 1 1/8 against top level horses I\'ll be
> the first to admit I know nothing about
> horseracing. I\'ll play him for 3rd or fourth
>
> Zenyatta- at 2/1 or less coming from dead last
> against top dirt horses I \'ll let her beat me..
>
> Looking at Lucky-I need him to revert to his old
> form of getting in trouble in every race because
> he scares me a bit looks like he can run all day
> too..I\'ll protect with him as his odds should be
> over 8/1.
>
> I really think Blame is top class and I hope he
> finally gets his due on Saturday..
Just finished with the sheets and I feel like Fly Down has to get thrown into this mix also..He might be 18/1..Good numbers and a closer off a healthy pace.