Tag Team in company style. Quick time, efficient, physically and mentally sharp.
The Dame may just toy with these little boys.....
BTW did anybody else besides me notice how slow that 1/8th was for QR in his last race.
Almost 14 seconds.....ugh!
12.4, 11.3,11.3,11.3,11.2,11.4
25.2, 37.0, 48.3, 100.0, 111.4
Last 1/8th in 11.4
Final qtr in 23.1
Looks like she\'s as ready as she\'s ever gonna be
I\'m thinking we might see something SPECTACULAR!!
Here\'s the link
http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/30/zenyatta-strong-in-final-workout/
Still time for the bashers to get refunds.
Speaking of refunds, some jumper paid 200-1 in England, and they claim 900 pounds was booked at 1000-1 on Betfair.
Presumably not by one guy.
Perfect. I hope they don\'t shut up about this work either. Keep bringing the suckers into the pool.
It\'s too bad they didn\'t ship her to Churchill early and have the workout there. Just like the Derby, I prefer to see California horses work on dirt rather than synthetics when their next race is on dirt.
I really don\'t know how to interpret a great work at Hollywood when she\'s running at Churchill Downs.
When I first read this I assumed the work was at CD. That would pique my interest. She worked well at Hollywood? People are excited about this? O boy. HP
They don\'t ship her early. Her works are always at HOL, so they\'re doing what they always do with her. She won\'t workout at CD either. They feel like she\'s ready.
Agree!
Sherriffs pushing ALL the right buttons as usual.
TNT-type training efforts........
Who are the \"suckers\" exactly? Are you a remote viewer or something? You already know the outcome of the race? The suckers might turn out to be half of the wise-guys on this board!
Actually, they said they already know she likes Churchill, so they weren\'t going to work her there, just gallop her. Her work was about 2 seconds faster than her usual work and she barely broke a sweat. Take it or leave it as you wish.
People love to hate on those that are successful. It somehow make them feel better about themselves.
These aren\'t fans of the game, just gamblers. Sad really, that some around here can\'t embrace a phenomenal horse while trying to look for an edge in a race they want to play.
I hate on success of others and am no fan of the game because I exploit over-bet synthetic champions who routinely come up short on dirt? Ummm Okay.. Another gem P.
I don\'t know who some of this is aimed at...I just think Zenyatta working big at HOL is not really news.
It\'s amazing how everyone gets up in arms at the slightest comment. If the horse wins she deserves all the credit in the world and if she loses it doesn\'t diminish anything she\'s accomplished, despite all the naysaying.
She already likes CD, all systems go, whatever. It will still be another race where you\'re standing there in front of the tote trying to decide what to do with your money. How you bet this race is not a life altering statement. LOL
HP
No, it wasnt towards you.. It was towards to post suggesting that I am not a fan of racing because I plan on betting against a synthetic champion about to face the most difficult competition of her life on dirt.
I was unaware that such actions were blasphemy against the horse racing community.
Sekrah,
I think anyone that doesn\'t like Zenyatta\'s chances are in a great position. Barring something crazy, she\'s gonna take a ton of money and that represents an increased value for any other horse in the race.
If she gets beat she\'s nothing more than a plastic fraud, if she runs great and wins or narrowly loses, some will ultimately give her credit for her ability.
At the end of the day, she will at least be looked upon as a great female who once again was willing to risk her unbeaten streak in order to make history.
The easy way would have been the Distaff or skipping the BC altogether.
Peace out
Mr B earlier today on TVG said this was the BEST Prep work before a BIG race he had EVER seen.
She is Locked and Loaded Boys!
Nice job by 60 minutes.
Almost makes me want to not bet and just root for her......almost. Always liked that Andy Rooner, born just outside Saratoga Springs.
Enjoy the upcoming week everyone
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Yeah, if that footage shown on 60 Minutes is recent, she\'s looks absolutely amazing. I thought it was a great story, too. I had no idea she was so mellow off the track, perhaps that\'s why she\'s lasted so long. If Mike Smith is right and there\'s more to her that she\'s never reached, she\'ll win - if not, there\'s no way to say for sure. She has such an amazing efficiency to her stride and terrific flexibility in her rear end when she pushes off. I do agree with Smith, if she wins, she\'ll be the greatest ever. One thing for sure, we\'ll never see anything close to her for the rest of our lives. This will be my last post until after the race. I can\'t take all the negativity regarding some opinions about her. I\'m not sure if people are just looking for heated conversations or if they really have no heart and are like machines pushing the button for the next bet. The only thing for sure is if you look at that mare and don\'t see once in a lifetime greatness, you know nothing whatsoever about racehorses. Reminds me of when a great horse broke down at Gulfstream (he was like 1-9 that day) and Cigar (I think) won - it was at the beginning of Cigar\'s long streak I think. There were actually people cheering when that other horse broke down because they bet on Cigar. That\'s the kind of person who would knock Zenyatta or wish her to lose. It\'s just so distasteful and low-class. . .
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> People love to hate on those that are successful.
> It somehow make them feel better about themselves.
>
>
> These aren\'t fans of the game, just gamblers. Sad
> really, that some around here can\'t embrace a
> phenomenal horse while trying to look for an edge
> in a race they want to play.
This is a handicapping board! There is nothing wrong with taking a stand against a heavily bet fan favorite. In fact, it is usually the right move.
This isn\'t the Peppermint Pony Club.
That \"other horse\" was Holy Bull. He didn\'t break down, he pulled up, but went on to have a nice breeding career.
And rooting for Zenyatta to lose is not like rooting for a horse to breakdown and lose its life. Settle down. I understand you are a fan, but this is actually a website with lots of gamblers on it. It is not heretical to both root against tand bet against a favorite. That doesn\'t make anybody a bad person...
Dana666 Wrote:
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There were actually people cheering when
> that other horse broke down because they bet on
> Cigar. That\'s the kind of person who would knock
> Zenyatta or wish her to lose. It\'s just so
> distasteful and low-class. . .
OK, if I\'m the guy who\'s betting on Quality Road or Blame, next Saturday, and \"wish her to lose,\" that makes me what??? I think the answer is \"gambler.\" And if I \"knock\" her, which I don\'t, because I have no interest in engaging in such dialogue, that might just mean I\'m a student of the racing game who is willing to make a stand based on a different analytical framework than your own. Unless I missed a tongue-in-cheek cue, your analogy was incredibly offensive to a substantial portion of the horse playing population.
Frankly, there\'s a certain venom attached to many of the \'bet against\' posts that has NOTHING to do with a \'gambling\' play.
No reason to deny that, or excuse it.
Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> Frankly, there\'s a certain venom attached to many
> of the \'bet against\' posts that has NOTHING to do
> with a \'gambling\' play.
>
> No reason to deny that, or excuse it.
True, but there was no attempt to make such a distinction, and would you say the venom is comparable to hoping the horse breaks down? That was the analogy.
Jimbo
Well stated!
sekrah Wrote:
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> I hate on success of others and am no fan of the
> game because I exploit over-bet synthetic
> champions who routinely come up short on dirt?
> Ummm Okay.. Another gem P.
When has Zenyatta come up short in any race?
Um okay.
Now that\'s truly a gem.
Boscar is correct. It\'s one thing to take a stand against her, I\'ve never had a problem with that.
It\'s the constant put downs and negativity that has been a constant in the handicapping discussions.
Perhaps this Saturday you can win back all of the money you\'ve burned betting against her.
Lets see how many of you post before the race which horse is going to beat her. If she loses, every last one of you will claim that you nailed it.
Amen.
I thought the purpose of this board was to use TG figs and patterns to help indentify bad favorites and live longshots.
Next Saturday, in a 14 horse field, we will have a favorite that needs to run a lifetime top and get a perfect closing trip while 3 other faster horses that will be forwardly placed (and as such almost certainly get better trips) back up. This favorite has a 10-15% chance to win and will be bet as if she has a 33-42% chance to win. As a horseplayer, these are the type of opportunties for which you wait.
Believe me, if Zenyatta was 10-1, I would use her as her key, I have nothing against the horse per se.
One needs to separate emotions from analysis. In 2007, many here did very well with Street Sense in the juvy and Kentucky Derby. Big scores. I guess that should have made them \"fan(s)\" of the horse. When it came to the Breeders Cup Classic, the ability to recognize that Street Sense was a terrible underlay at 6/5 with Curlin at 4-1 when you had them essentially w/ equal chances to win was the key to betting the race properly.
There are those that will bet Zenyatta next week at 7/5 with the same vim and vigor that they would if she was 7-1.
One is a good bet, the other a bad bet. Not too hard to figure out.
P-Dub - I\'ll be the first...Lookin\' at Lucky, and I\'m thinking 5-1, maybe higher? I don\'t like QR. Blame isn\'t bad but I have a more positive view of LAL. That said, hey, if these three \"forwardly placed\" horses hurt each other enough Z. has a shot. Right now I don\'t see it as a race I will be hitting that hard. HP
LAL seems like he\'s handling those recent efforts imo and does have good spacing . To figure he\'s sitting on a point or two top right now is not a reach in my opinion . I guess current odds of 9-2 at oddschecker is my only real negative for the horse and with that said - I\'m still not sure what to do with the race as a stand alone although personally speaking , FD\'s shaping up to be the one I\'d hate to get beat by the most . ..
No, I don\'t think anyone in their right mind would wish for a breakdown.
Of course, if some of these guys are ready to load as they claim, some powerful Voodoo might need to be employed at the 1/8 pole.
Zenyatta\'s true odds are somewhere between 10-1 and 15-1 against this field, IMO.
\"Zenyatta\'s true odds are somewhere between 10-1 and 15-1 against this field, IMO\"
Sek,
How much are you willing to book at those prices??
Mike
Why would I book a horse at its true odds? Anyway, I\'m don\'t make wagers with random strangers over the internet. Just not my thing. Anyway, I could combo bet my top 7 horses and likely do much better than -1500.
Anywhere here\'s my odds board for the Classic based on my number crunching calculation/formula
Dakota Phone 99-1
Crown of Thomas 99-1
Pleasant Prince 99-1
Paddy O Prado 65-1
Espoir City 32-1
Morning Line 32-1
First Dude 21-1
Zenyatta 15-1
Lookin At Lucky 15-1
Etched 12-1
Musket Man 10-1
Haynesfield 8-1
Blame 7-1
Fly Down 7-1
Quality Road 3-1
Bummer,
Looks like you will be passing the race as nearly every horse will be an underlay for you other than Quality Road. Or are you all in on that one?
QR, Fly Down, and Musket Man will not be underlays with my odds.. Etched might creep above 15-1 too.
If you like any one of those then I guess you are right. They all look too slow to me unless Fly Down can run back to his Travers#. He was my bet in the Belmont and it looks like either the 1 1/2 or the big effort in the Dwyer got him. He then got rest, came back to pair his top, made another big forward move in the Travers and then regressed off that in his last. The regression was pretty easy to see coming, especially considering it was a pretty big number and he bore in. Now he gets 5 weeks and should have a pace to run at, so I suppose it\'s a possibility that he could run back. Will need to get the trip though in my opinion if he is going to take down some of these older horses, and his closing kick isn\'t as good as some of the others. Plus he\'s already developed alot from where he started, so I think a repeat of that big number is very unlikely.
Given all of that I would make fair odds on him closer to 15-1, but that\'s just me.
Based on your line I would prefer Haynesfield, who looks much more interesting if you don\'t think he will go too fast early.
I also think fair odds on Blame are about 4-1, which is about half your line. He had no chance to run down Haynesfield after that one cleared and got to lay down more or less methodical 24 and change splits in their last, and Blame still kicked on down the lane better than Fly Down.