If there is anyone on the board who thinks Z will win the Classic, I would like to hear the argument.
I don\'t think she has any chance but I have torn up too many tickets over the years after having had such a strong view (think Big Brown Derby) that I don\'t want to be too dismissive and I want to entertain the other side of the argument.
Much appreciated in advance.
This is going to be one fun week.
Jim,
This is a tough mare to just dismiss.
I see problems for every single horse in the field. The pace is gonna be no picnic with the likes of QR, Haynesfield, Espoir City, and First Dude. Seems like Lucky and Blame will be in the next flight, and then Zenyatta bringing up the rear.
I have real questions about Blame as far as getting the distance with the 126#. The 2 times he\'s tried 124 or more he has been beaten. So now we\'re asking him to do something he hasn\'t proven he can do. Is he a threat? Sure. Do you think Gomez is gonna want QR or Quality Road to get a big jump on him like last time?
If he tries to keep him closer, I\'m pretty sure he\'ll hang. Could be wrong.
Does anybody think Haynesfield is gonna open up on QR, or do any of us think QR is gonna open up on Haynesfield? I doubt it, you can\'t let a nice horse like one of these get away from you if you need to be near the front end. First Dude is likely to hang around for awhile, but Espoir City can really run, and he\'s really tough if the surface comes up wet. It\'s hard to play a horse shipping from Japan, but he\'ll make his presence known for a good part of the race. He\'s likely to make things interesting for the first 8 or 9 furlongs. Could be wrong.
Can anyone name even a single Grade 1 winner that Quality Road has ever beaten in a route race? There aren\'t any, maybe that\'s a coincidence. (At the time he beat Haynesfield, he was not yet a Grade 1 winner). He\'s fast, dangerous, and if he has the right fuel in him, of course he\'s a helluva horse. I think it would have been better for QR if they would have skipped those 2 mile races early in the 2010 campaign, they proved nothing, everybody knows he\'s fast, and they may have contributed to this horse being over the top now when it really counts.
Lucky is a very nice 3 year old in my opinion. He\'s W-A-Y better than 99% of the people on this board thought he was early in the year. Coming from California synthetic and way too slow. I have a ton of respect for Baffert getting this colt to the top of his game next week. He\'ll have to have a clean trip to have a real good shot, but I think he can live the distance.
I don\'t know what to say about Z that hasn\'t been said. On paper, it looks like she is a complete outsider, but she did last year also. Surface, blah, blah, blah. If anyone besides Espoir City is bred to like the wet track its Z.
She can get the 10f, she\'s already proven that, its just a matter of how fast she can get it. She stands to get an equal to better trip than last years BC race, and the long stretch could play to her advantage. I would be very leery of John Shireffs in this situation. Last year he had both Life Is Sweet and Zenyatta ready to run big. I have no doubt Zenyatta will run by far the best race of this 2010 season. This is the race they have trained and pointed for all year long. They\'re not afraid of anyone in this field. Can she get her doors blown off? Off course, any of them can get drilled. She\'s 6 years old and she may wake up on November 6th and feel old. I have no concerns with her carrying the weight, she doesn\'t have to be forwardly placed, she is proven at the Classic Distance, and I feel Mike will give her a great ride, its just a matter of if she\'s good enough. Think what you want, but this is one horse who has risen to the occassion every single time, she\'s been in the limelight, she\'s been the center of attention. She\'s always found a way to get the job done. With her style of running, it will be very late in the race before it would even dawn on her that she might get beat, otherwise, she\'s just gonna keep on moving down the lane. Every single horse in this race has always had an excuse when they got beat, except her. She\'s been a slave to pedestrian fractions, to traffic problems, she\'s always found a way to come running late. The same cannot be said for every other horse in this race. She\'s very likely to run her race and get into the mix. I view races like this as how many jockeys will panic or make poor decisions when things aren\'t going as planned for their horse. I\'m a fan of Mike Smith, I like John Shireffs as a person. The last thing I heard Mike say is when she runs her race, she stands alone. I think Zenyatta runs her best race. Could be wrong.
Lastly, I\'m not gonna defend my comments here. Either you agree or disagree. Doesn\'t make any difference. When I looked at the string and there were about 100 views without a single person stating that they felt she would win the Classic. I\'m just having my say. There\'s no sense talking smack now, that\'ll come later guys.
Peace out.
I couldn\'t agree more. I initially thought she was a toss but then I re-watched her 2 dirt races and found them to be 2 of her most impressive. She gets weight and I think a -2 may be enough to win if she saves ground and there is a pace to run at which there undoubtedly should be. I am not a fan of how they campaigned her but her record and desire to win is too much for me to totally ignore.
Tough not to use a horse that\'s 19-0...regardless of what her numbers are. Are there questions? Yes, but she has the fewest amount of questions to answer compared to anyone else in the field.
She should get a decent pace to run at, her running style works for the long stretch at CD, and asking myself \"who will be the best of the closers\" it\'s Z IMO.
We\'ve all wasted money trying to beat her, and smalltimer is right, maybe she wakes up next Saturday and feels old, but if I had to take just 1 (luckily I don\'t) it would be Zenyatta.
Sure, I think Zenyatta can win the Classic.
First, subjectively, we\'ve been underestimating her from day 4 or 5 or something like that and as much as we may not like the campaigns her connections mapped out, one has to at the very least grudgingly admire her accomplishments. We, figure players, associate good runs and good efforts with performance, not to mention, accomplishment achievements. Usually they\'re synonymous and but often when performance outstrips accomplishment, we eagerly anticipate the next run armed with information which we hope will be undervalued. That\'s all wrong though. To echo Herman Edwards who bellowed, \"We play to win the game,\" thoroughbreds run to win the race. That\'s really all the counts. So no losses over a three year span is really quite impressive and the last 16 wins all within a 3-point band, is also quite impressive.
Now in so far as her sheet, her pattern, I offer the following. It\'s been pretty well conjectured, and if not quite proven nonetheless somewhat generally accepted that synthetic tracks have constrained brilliance, speed in particular, and as a result the range of performance is much narrower. Synthetics tend blunt speed and races are run more often like turf contests where generally whoever runs last runs best. Nothing new here, but since Zenyatta is so good over synthetics, and those are her home courses, most, all but two, of her runs have come over such surfaces and coupled with her come-from-behind style of running, both factors have indirectly and adversely, affected her performance figures. Also how many true speed horses has she ever faced over these surfaces? Has she faced any Sidney\'s Candy types over synthetics? Seems she hasn\'t met many if any and such confirmed speed types tend to stretch out the field and increase the performance range of figures, a la a dirt race.
She jumped up 5-1/2 points in her first dirt run--a not uncommon experience among synthetic-to-dirt performers and she\'s only improved a 0-1/4-point in the 2-1/2 years since. Of course those pair-ups and slight bounces have all come over the synthetic surfaces, save one. That might be construed as improvement, development--the fact that she\'s essentially been able to perform consistently at that new level, albeit with an absence of new peaks.
But rather than interpret the Oaklawn 2010 performance as evidence that Zenyatta is still equally as fast over synthetic and dirt, perhaps we can say that this was really an off race. (Conjecture, but plausible, I think.) Sure she ran a point off her top, technically a pair-up, but horses that get to the races at 3 generally hit their best levels at 5 or 6. Not so with Zenyatta and given her pedigree, the sire profile and the dam-sire, one has to wonder some. Dams-sire Kris S gets late developing route and grass runners while Street Cry from the more precocious Mr. Prospector line, won the Stephen Foster as 4yo, at 9 furlongs shows a TGI favoring older runners, distance and synthetic, although the surface accomplishment parameters are more equally weighted between dirt and synthetic. Add to that her pattern--she\'s cycling forward. Now her running style prospectively works against her but we don\'t know the post yet and Smith can ride inside when he has to or at least 2w2w. Also, trainer Shireffs is also pretty good in this spot--synthetic to dirt--and they\'re not all Zenyatta. In other words, a 3-point new top or so is not out of the question. She gets a bit of weight--0-1/2 a point or so, and with a decent, not great, 2w2w trip, who knows.
And that kind of performance certainly makes her competitive. Blame finally ran a poor one for him, he was due. But even if he rebounds, he too could face traffic problems and concedes some weight. Quality Road is just plain backing up and looks to be dueling or running with Haynesfield who bounced the last time he ran as fast as his last. Fly Down is intriguing but the likelihood is that the Travers knocked him out, or at least enough such that he won\'t run his best here. Lookin at Lucky is a heck of a good 3yo but off 3 efforts, and maybe his last isn\'t good enough.
Now is Zenyatta a good bet. Nope. She has to run a new top here and that may not be good enough. But I do think she has a shot to do it. I can\'t say she will win and I\'ll take a shots against her but I don\'t rule her out for reasons cited above.
I just came across this montage of Zenyatta....she\'s simply a freak...it only solidifies my feeling that you can\'t throw her out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi0YaVefoeE&feature=related
TGAB thx for the thoughts.
She will run her race and be about 5/2.
I found your comments about Blame to be interesting?
A good bet is a winning bet, and Zenyatta stands a better chance at winning this race than any horse in the field.
Forget the numbers. This mare hasn\'t just won 19 straight at the top level, she\'s done it despite a hugely detrimental running style. She shouldn\'t have won 5 straight, much less 19, not when there are fractions that no horse should be able to catch after lagging behind by 15 lengths. She\'s a freak, more so than many realize, and she\'s going to love 1 1/4 miles and that long stretch.
Pletcher\'s a good trainer but not nearly as good as a Bob Baffert. He doesn\'t know how to get his horse to peak on one big day. Now he\'s out trying to train stamina into Quality Road instead of just letting the big horse roll as he best rolls. If they let him run as he wants, I\'d bet him underneath, now I\'m not so sure he\'ll even hit the board.
The horse who does have Baffert is Zenyatta\'s biggest threat. Lucky\'s a good horse, he\'ll go 1 1/4 miles, he\'s a fighter, and he has Baffert.
Blame does nothing for me, and the rest are filler.
Don\'t let the numbers fool you. They fooled a lot of people last year. She\'s the best horse in the field, and that gives her a real chance at winning.
This isn\'t written to disagree with your conclusion, but to disagree with just about everything else you wrote in this post.
Zenyatta\'s running style was detrimental to her winning? Did you read Jerry\'s post above in which he explains how it was well suited to winning on poly?
Pletchers not as good as Baffert? How do you conclude that? By his results and the record or by your passion?
Pletcher can\'t get his horse to peak on a big day? What big day are you talking about? The days on which he wins Grade 1 after Grade 1 races? Or the day on which he won the Kentucky Derby with a plug?
If Lucky wins this race he won\'t do it \'with Baffert\' as you suggest (Baffert will be in the stands)...he will do it with his talent, which a dozen other trainers could have brought out in him.
Blame does nothing for you? I\'ll tell you that I wouldn\'t mind owning him so he could do for me exactly what he has done.
As for Zenyatta\'s numbers fooling me, they didn\'t fool me last year...I bet Gio Ponti because I hoped the best grass horse in the race would beat her on that b------t track surface. God Bless her if she wins this race and good picking on your part...but please line up your reasoning with reality.
Alm wrote:
\"Did you read Jerry\'s post above in which he explains how it was well suited to winning on poly?\"
That was Alan, not JB, though in his third paragraph, Alan sounds quite a bit like Classhandicapper.
There are legitimate questions about every horse in this race, so I wouldn\'t single out Zenyatta. Along those same lines, I wouldn\'t single any of them in a bet, unless the odds seem seriously disproportionate. It\'s a nice race to conclude a Pick-4 for those so inclined, and an even nicer race to generate some interesting bar and message board discussion, but no horse has the complete package of speed, consistency and class to instill stand alone confidence. All I know is that I can\'t leave a 19-0 horse, who has already done a couple of pretty similar things, off my exotic wagers.
TGAB,
An interesting post. I have to be honest though in that if I had 100 guesses I would not have guessed that either your TGJB would write this. Rich Curtis has a point in that a few of the points are reminiscent of Class Handicapper.
Predicting a potential 3 point new top for a 6 year old mare with a string of 12 races in a row in a tight range makes close to zero sense for me. Of course it is \"possible\". But I wonder if you would define \"possibe\" as 1% or 20% or 40%.
You think Quality Road is just plain going backwards. Ok. Possible. I guess that would make Zenyatta a significant favorite over QR in a \"match up\". I will take even money for a drink at Saratoga next summer. If you want to raise the ante, I will add an ice cream from Ben & Jerry\'s.
When you say \"we\" have been underestimating her since her 4th or 5th race, is the \"we\" Thorograph? Or all the figure makers? Either way, I am not sure I accept it. I don\'t think I have underestimated her even though she has taken my money many many times. What I think I did, was take what I believed to be her over-rated perception and underlaid odds, and \"created\" a betting opportunity a few times that didn\'t exist, because her competition has been absolutely MISERABLE for most of 3 seasons and there just weren\'t real viable options in most of those races. A handicapping mistake for sure, but not one of underestimating her.
Quality Road will sit fine off of Haynesfield. Not sure why many suddenly see QR as a \"need the lead\" horse. He tracked a target in some of his best performances. I don\'t see Haynesfield as a real contender, despite his last. He got a soft pace and ran through the roof. He is a perfect horse for QR to track IMO, cheap speed. I think the horse QR will have to hold off is Lookin at Lucky, not Zenyatta. If QR is not over the top and fires his best as a fresh horse, he wins. If he is a bit off his best, then LAL comes and gets him.
Big Z sucks up for a respectable 4th, killing value in the Super, but not a serious threat.
Jim
Funny Cide Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A good bet is a winning bet, and...
Here is where I part company with some of the most strident Zenyatta backers, who seem willing to take her in this year\'s Classic, odds unseen; that is ridiculous.
\"A good bet is a winning bet\"? Really? Let\'s flip coins* then -- you pay me a buck a flip, and I\'ll pay you back $1.80 every time it comes up heads. Tails, I keep the buck.
You\'ll hit a ton of winning bets (good bets, by your definition), and we can play as long as you want, until you are completely out of money.
Deal?
* no synthetic coins.
Rick,
One guy saying a good bet is a winning bet is hardly the voice of Zenyatta backers.
How many have stated that they will bet her no matter what the odds are?? Few if any.
I am one of the biggest Zenyatta supporters on this board, and I left her off everything last year. Cost me P3 tickets and a P4.
You\'ve made it known what you think of the horse and connections. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, just stick to the facts. Few if any have stated she is a good bet at a short price.
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rick,
>
> One guy saying a good bet is a winning bet is
> hardly the voice of Zenyatta backers.
I agree. Who said otherwise?
I was pretty specific, Paul: I wrote \"the most strident\" of Zenyatta\'s backers. I meant that as \"a little\".
> How many have stated that they will bet her no
> matter what the odds are?? Few if any.
Poster Funny Cide implied as much. And a well-known west coast workout analyst thought $7 on Zenyatta in last year\'s Classic was a big price, so I can safely count him in. Do you know for sure I meant more than 2 people?
\"Stick to the facts\", you say. How about sticking to what I wrote, not your erroneous interpretation of same. Your standard bull rush (as it were) to defend all slights towards Smith, Zenyatta, Shirreffs, et. al., whether real or imagined, is tiresome; why not give it a rest?
I\'m also a bit surprised by TGAB\'s post and can\'t view Z running down this field as a realistic conclusion. Maybe I have drunk too much Kool Aide ?
The winner of this race will be HOY, few can argue that but there is no real value in the vertical betting at all. Z will certainly be the favorite maybe at 5/2 and LAL the 4th choice maybe at 5/1. It\'s more probable that the tri and super could be the top 4 choices in some order and I can\'t see anyone other than the top 4 possibly winning ?
Blame\'s last race really bothers me and I be surprised to see QR back in negative 5 land but will have to use both on a smaller horizontal ticket. It\'s difficult to come up with excuses for horses that have a mapped out campaign and will only run a handful of times. I do feel that QR is over the top but a negative 2 with all the question marks may win this race ?
So for me it\'s Lucky and hoping for some big prices leading up to the classic for a non life changing but a pick 3 or 4 that you can brag about for a bit !!!
Good luck to all,
FD
Thanks to everyone for the great thoughts.
Really really appreciated.
Gives me alot to think about and fortunately, we still have about 9 days to do the thinking.
Jimbo,
No doubt QR has tracked and sit off the lead in some of his best performances.
Let\'s look at those examples:
Mar 28, 2009. Going 9 furlongs, QR sat behind that incredible 9 furlong horse, Casey\'s on Call and swallowed him at the 3/4 marker;
Feb 6, 2009. Going 9 furlongs, QR sat behind that other great animal, Past The Point and swallowed him between the 3/4 and mile marker;
Sept 4, 2010. Going 9 furlongs, QR sat behind that other world beater, Arcodoro and swallowed this one at the 3/4 marker.
In both of his 10 furlong efforts, the Travers and The Gold Cup he gave way in the final 1/8th. In the Travers he was sitting off that horse, Our Edge, and then was swallowed up by Summer Bird. In the Gold Cup, QR sat off Tizway and was again swallowed up by Summer Bird.
Has he ever really passed a good horse at 9 furlongs?
Haynesfield may be, as you say, \"cheap speed\", but I suspect he\'ll run farther and faster than Casey\'s On Call, Past The Point and Arcodoro. I could be wrong.
In the Travers and Gold Cup, QR sat on 46.4/111 and 49.3/113. If you draw a line through his races at 6.5 furlongs, flat Mile races it says the pace of the race hasn\'t beaten him, the distance has.
I have the belief that Zenyatta will adapt to whatever pace scenario unfolds. In her last 10 outs she has sit off fractions like these, and still found a way to get the win:
47/111 48/111.1/135.2 48.4/113.3 49.2/112.4 47.4/111.4/136(10 f)
47.3/111/135.3 48/112.3/137.2 (OP) 47.2/111.1/136.4 50.3/115 48.3/113
Neither Haynesfield nor QR have thrown anything faster than a 111.2 in their last races, so it\'s not like they\'re just gonna show her that much faster fractions than she\'s encountered before. They run 1.35/1.36/137 at the mile marker, so I would expect her to be in the same position in the race as her history has shown. Its fair to say, Mike will have Z sitting in a position waiting for the front runners to back up and make her run, it doesn\'t mean Z will have to change her normal running style. I can assure you that Mike Smith knows what color the 1/4, 1/2 mile and mile markers are. Conversely, I think horses like Haynesfield, QR and a couple other speed horses will have to alter their preferred running styles due to the running style of others on the front end. Z should probably just run her normal race and it may or may not be good enough. Again, I could be wrong. Good luck Jimbo.
Peace out.
Jim,
I\'m glad I started the dialogue, I was afraid you had a topic that no one was gonna touch. At this point, it\'s pretty civil dialogue and that\'s even better!!
Frank:
Agree with all that you\'ve said, but if Fly Down wins the Classic is he HOY?
If FD wins the Classic and Zen is a close second is she HOY?
Jimbo mentioned a ticket without the 2 Amazons, Goldie and Zen. Maybe the way to
go is to toss the 2 short priced Euro turf faves, Goldie and Workforce.
The race I am looking forward to is the Juvie where my suspicion is that the 2
high profile NY based 2YOs, Uncle Mo and Boys at Costconova, might be short colts
and without the proper foundation for a two turn 1-1/16th. Know I am going to get
killed here by the true Kool Aid fanatics, the ones who dont even bother mixing
the powder with water.
Rich,
Can\'t see FD running with these IMO after that big top but a very good point for HOY if any other than the top 4 win the Classic.
That should provide some lively debate on here !!!
As for Kool Aide ? State your flavor of chocie ! Lime here.
Just sayin guys! Laying off Haynesfield and First Dude. Maybe one more.
Negative # whatever this will add up!
There were Zenyatta-like odds that you would be the first and most verbose respondant to the OP.
I find it interesting that you feel the need to editorialize by using terms like \"incredible 9 furlong horse\" \"great animal\" and \"world beater\" to demean the competition that QR has faced and at the same time draw a conclusion that the pace scenarios and quality of competition that Zenyatta has been facing in the Cal restriced state bred graded stakes races are equivalent to open company G1s.
What are the adjectives that you would use to describe \"Rinterval,\" \"St. Trinian\'s\" and \"Switch.\"
If Zenyatta wins, it will because she runs a figure that she has never run before on a track and distance (on dirt) that she has never run before. If you are comfortable at 2-1 odds, god bless you.
I think you have to decide if you feel she has run as fast as she could run before, or if she can make a dramatic figure improvement going from synthetic to dirt. If you really feel that she has been all out in any of her races, then you do and that is the figure you would go by. If you feel that there is another gear there, then you go have to extrapolate how much improvement you think she can make. But, she is one of the pure distance horses running in the BCC. No matter what she has been running against, again this year the paces have been so slow that those horses have run their last 1/16 in 6 flat or close to it most of the time. That means she has consistently and fairly easily run her\'s in 5 and change. She ran her last mile in the BC last year in a shade under 1:34, I believe and she negative split the whole race and the last 1/4 in 22 and change, I think. I don\'t have her fractional times in front of me so I am going by memory, which could be wrong. I feel she has the ability to run down any field she faces at anytime. She just has the biomechanics that keeps her accelerating with each stride, hitting her top speed at the wire. If her odds are too low, then that is fine. Then you have to decide whither to have a save ticket with her included in the gimmicks. Can you afford to have her spoil your possible big win because you \"think\" that she can\'t do it. By the way- thanks to all on this blog for being informative. I\'ve never been a figure handicapper but I find it very interesting listening to all the comments. Sorry this post was a little long.
Covello, you did this to annoy me, right?
For the record, Alan was not speaking for Thoro-Graph. And I suspect not even for himself, you never know-- he was making the case Covello wanted someone to make.
Sure, you can come up with a scenario where Z wins. It involves a combination of her running her best and several other horses not running theirs (or getting bad/wide trips, which is more likely, especially with LAL), or her running better than she ever has before. (I am willing to say that the \"S. Pace\" and \"h\" races don\'t accurately reflect what she could have run, because she didn\'t run tops, but there is no reason to believe she could have run faster than her top). And either way, she has to not lose much ground coming from last.
She\'s consistent, and very likely to get a check, not likely to win.
Wonder what those mares Z was beating in photos would go off at in this race...
Monmouth,
My point was that jimbo had said that QR had sit off the pace with a horse to target and had been able to go by. My point was those horses he sat off of were not elite type animals. Zenyatta doesn\'t join this part of the discussion because she\'s not gonna set off horses. She\'s just gonna try to run them down.
Horses that you mention in California, I would just use the adjective as the latest group beaten by Zenyatta. I felt like St. Trinian\'s prior to her injury was as good or better than the very best the east coast had to offer.
Regarding the odds of 2/1 you mention. I don\'t think there\'s one single horse in this race, including Zenyatta, who merits 2/1 in this field. Okay? Anything less than about 5/1 would not be acceptable to me. I did take the liberty in February when I was in Las Vegas to put a modest sum of money in the futures on Zenyatta at 14/1, so I guess I\'ll just have to live that.
Next objection?
You \"felt\" that way about St. Trinian\'s, did you? Too bad we don\'t have a way of actually measuring that.
Truly an excellent question about the mares she beat. Funny too, in a deeply funny way.
Footlick,
These are good points. I\'m not a figure guy either, so maybe I wouldn\'t like Zenyatta\'s chances either.
I am a believer that either a horse can carry the assigned weight and wants the distance or they don\'t.
I\'m sure the forum will be glad to hear this will include my last set of pace/fractions on this topic. Sorry to state the obvious, but 10 furlongs is the same distance in California, New York or Kentucky.
QR sat on a 23.1 quarter in the Travers and got the final mile in 137.3;
QR sat on a 25.0 quarter in the Gold Cup and got the final mile in 140.3;
Haynesfield sat on a 24.3 quarter and got the final mile in 135.4.
Blame sat on a 25.2 quarter and got the final mile in 137.4.
Zenyatta sat on a 27.1 quarter and got the final mile in 133.2
I\'m willing to trade lengths at the start for lengths at the finish.
Good luck to all.
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This isn\'t written to disagree with your
> conclusion, but to disagree with just about
> everything else you wrote in this post.
>
> Zenyatta\'s running style was detrimental to her
> winning? Did you read Jerry\'s post above in which
> he explains how it was well suited to winning on
> poly?
I don\'t need Jerry or any other person to tell me what I can determine for myself. I know all about synthetics and their impact, and the fact is that it can\'t explain away win after win after win by this mare, regardless of pace, regardless of competition. Blind Luck\'s a top filly with an identical running style and she\'s not undefeated on the synth.
> Pletchers not as good as Baffert? How do you
> conclude that? By his results and the record or
> by your passion?
Let me know when Pletcher gets within a stone\'s throw of Baffert in big races where horses are targeted months out.
> If Lucky wins this race he won\'t do it \'with
> Baffert\' as you suggest (Baffert will be in the
> stands)...he will do it with his talent, which a
> dozen other trainers could have brought out in
> him.
Something against Baffert?
> Blame does nothing for you? I\'ll tell you that I
> wouldn\'t mind owning him so he could do for me
> exactly what he has done.
Who said I wouldn\'t mind owning him? That\'s a stupid statement. Do you say that every time you hear someone take a stand against a horse?
> As for Zenyatta\'s numbers fooling me, they didn\'t
> fool me last year...I bet Gio Ponti because I
> hoped the best grass horse in the race would beat
> her on that b------t track surface. God Bless her
> if she wins this race and good picking on your
> part...but please line up your reasoning with
> reality.
Gio Ponti didn\'t win, did he? Congratulations for picking the wrong horse. May you have equal success this year!
Those horses Zenyatta was winning photos on would be 99/1 or so.
Rachel after her last race would have been what? 15/1? 20/1? 30/1?
I felt Rachel would collapse at 10 furlongs, and I kinda was right. She wouldn\'t have been given much more of a chance to win the Classic than those Cal females.
The good news is we won\'t have to talk about Zenyatta in another 10 days or so.
That was my point about Smallertimer\'s post. He made some very disparaging comments about the horses QR was facing in his 9F races, but ignores the fact that Rinterval is on the \"also eligible list\" for the Filly and Mare sprint.
I didn\'t refer to any of them as \"slugs\", \"slow rats\", or some of the less than complimentary names that have been thrown at Zenyatta. People have repeatedly referred to the \"tomato cans\" that Z has been beating.
Peace out.
You are nuts if you think RA wouldn\'t have been much shorter than those Cal fillies-- she\'s a HOTY with a win over older males. And even with the losses the only reason she would not be one of the 4 favorites would be because of the distance, which is not true about the others.
I\'m pretty sure nobody on this board has referred to Z as a slug or a slow rat. That\'s known in the trade as a straw man. The lawyer on the other side of my RA suit specializes in them.
Small,
I take pride in authorship. Lets keep the jargon correct,it\'s garbage cans, not tomato cans.
Thinking of shorting California Bonds figuring if Z loses the whole State will fail.
Mike
I didn\'t imply anyone referred to Zenyatta as a slug or a slow rat. But, multiple times her competition was denegrated.
I\'m kind of baffled by this thread to begin with. Asking if the greatest handicap horse of all time has a legit shot to win a race she dominated last year? Are you serious? Really? Nobody in the history of thoroughbred horse racing has accomplishged what she has. Not Cigar. Not Citation. Not Big Red. Racing surface be damned.
She is the most accomplished 10F horse in the field by a mile, literally. One thing TG figures cannot account for is a horse\'s intelligence, their heart and their will to win. She has these over a barrel.
As for the Classic, I see zero value in betting the race as a stand alone event. All four of the horses that can win this will be 5-1 or shorter. Will have to play aggresive win parlays, double, pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s to make it worth playing.
The mere fact that Sherriffs and company are shipping Z 2,800 miles to run against the top male horses in the world on hard Kentucky dirt puts to rest the year\'s long debate on this board of how she\'s a sythetic specialist who never races anybody.
It will be a beautiful site seeing her picking \'em off one by one on the far turn as she gathers momentum like a teal blue locomotive. In my opinion they\'re all runnign for second money. By 3 or 4 lengths.
Who do you guys like tonight in the baseball game? The Bay Area is going crazy.
I never suggested Rachel would not be a lot shorter than those Cal fillies in this race.
You could have thrown everyone of them out this year, even Rachel.
If her camp thought she had a snowballs chance in hell, she\'d have been there.
Come on Mike. We know where the slow rats and slugs come from. Others used tomato cans, although garbage can could fit too. LOL
Califormin seems to be struggling just a bit financially, so go for it.
But, 50/50 the good ole US Government will be there to bail them out along with New York.
Buck,
Ok, even if I give you that Zenyatta is the smartest horse in the race. We\'ll see if that intelligence carries her to be able to run any faster than she has before.
Two things strike me as absolutely amazing about this thread:
1. The references to what Zenyatta did in last year\'s Classic as being so meaningful. If the last two year\'s Breeders Cups taught us ANYTHING at all, it is that the results of the races on Pro-Ride in the BC had no association with dirt form. Countless fast dirt horses fired duds. Horses that would have zero shot on dirt, won the Pro-Ride races. Midnight Lute would be the only exception I can think of that won on both surfaces in the BC.
2. P-Dub didn\'t have a dime on Zenyatta in last year\'s Classic. Next thing you know, he is going to say he never bets on Mike Smith because he is concerned about the wide trips. :)
Jim
Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
All four of the horses that can win this will be 5-1 or shorter.
Will have to play aggresive win parlays, double, pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s to make it worth playing.
I disagree that only four horses can win. I would expand that list to 6. And I believe that Zenyatta may be the only horse under 5-1, and that there will almost likely be no more than one other horse at 5-1 (LAL). I think Blame and QR will go off in the 6/8-1 range respectively.
That\'s twice. \"Wouldn\'t have been given mor of a chance than those Cal fillies\" and saying she would go off 15-30 to 1 is more than suggesting.
Actually, my guess is it was the other way around-- if they thought they had a chance of LOSING to Z they wouldn\'t be there, and they do so, they\'re not. Neither Jackson or Asmussen likes to take shots. And why do you assume the handicapping opinions of the connections are relevant in this or any case? Physical opinion, yes-- and if she\'s not right she shouldn\'t run.
Just another comment. Zenyatta\'s wins are extremely measured. I know they don\'t usually do that in this age, but it reminds me of what Shoe used to do with Forego. And before anybody starts I am not saying she is as good as Forego. But everybody has to realize that if Smith pushed her those wins would be by a much larger margin. They are very, very measured IMO. Thanks again for the blog.
Help me out here....exactly what did Shoe \'do\' with Forego, other than sit on a very fast horse and keep out of the way of his ability?
And you really think Smith hasn\'t been pushing this filly? Count \'em: he whacked her 8 times from the head of the lane in her last race. These were love taps???
JB,
This thread is the hottest thing in horse racing right now, you kidding me?
I did you a big favor.....LOL
I just did here what I always do with my stock picks when I have a strong view. I want to hear as many smart opinions about the other side of the argument as I can to make sure I am not missing something.
In this case, I really appreciate and respect everyone\'s views but at the end of the day, I am a numbers person and I think making too many adjustments to the numbers (i.e. for horse IQ, early pace, surface changes etc) renders the numbers irrelevant so I am going to go with one of the fast horses in the race (she is not one of them).
Now only if I can figure out which one of those to use.
I am inclined to go with Jimbo and QR. I don\'t care if he\'s not as good as he was in January (I mean the horse here, not Jimbo), he\'s still the fastest horse in this race and even though he hasn\'t won going this distance, he has run numbers going this distance that will very likely win the race.
As long as Pletcher\'s others aren\'t shooting blanks leading up to the Classic, I am pretty sure he\'s my horse.
Shoe said many, many times he made sure Forego did not win by much in many of his races to take it easy on him and to try to keep weight off of him in handicaps. But the track handicapper wasn\'t fooled. If you think Zenyatta is all out then you\'ll have no problem throwing her out. As far as Smith hitting her, you interpret it however you want. He is not whipping the hell out of her. I\'m not here for confrontation. That happens in too many other blogs. You interpret however it makes you happy.
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Rick,
> >
> > One guy saying a good bet is a winning bet is
> > hardly the voice of Zenyatta backers.
>
> I agree. Who said otherwise?
>
> I was pretty specific, Paul: I wrote \"the most
> strident\" of Zenyatta\'s backers. I meant that as
> \"a little\".
>
> > How many have stated that they will bet her no
> > matter what the odds are?? Few if any.
>
> Poster Funny Cide implied as much. And a
> well-known west coast workout analyst thought $7
> on Zenyatta in last year\'s Classic was a big
> price, so I can safely count him in. Do you know
> for sure I meant more than 2 people?
>
> \"Stick to the facts\", you say. How about sticking
> to what I wrote, not your erroneous interpretation
> of same. Your standard bull rush (as it were) to
> defend all slights towards Smith, Zenyatta,
> Shirreffs, et. al., whether real or imagined, is
> tiresome; why not give it a rest?
Erroneous interpretations??
-I haven\'t written anything about Zenyatta or Snith in quite awhile. Standard bullrush?? Whatever. A bit erroneous to say standard bullrush. You write non-stop about Zenyatta, Smith, the connections....all with the same point of view. You want to talk about tired?? Give me a break pal.
- The most strident of backers. So you\'re saying , what Rick, there are only 2 of those?? The most popular horse on the planet, and she has a couple of \"strident supporters\"?? Sure Rick, you were just referring to a couple people.
You seem a bit sensitive. Or does having the same undefeated horse slap you around at the mutuel windows contribute to you bitter attitude?? Can\'t blame you for that. Only the most strident of her detractors have had that happen to them. Maybe race 20 will be your race to get it all back.
Good luck with that.
You\'re kidding me right? Eight shots with the whip in a little over an 1/8th of a mile and there\'s more than one way to interpret that? She ran her best race that day, my friend...that was her best race. It may be good enough to win next week...I hope so...it will make for a great story, but I participate in this blog as a reality check on what I think.
Jimbo,
The thing the Classic taught me is this mare encountered a fair amount of traffic at the head of the stretch, was able to veer over, get straightened away, regather herself a bit, and win easily with a TON left in the tank. All that during a 990 feet of stretch at Santa Anita. The fact of the distance not compromising her chances leads me to where I am on the race. I think we\'ll see 100% of what she has in the tank, no sense sending her to the breeding shed without finding exactly how far and how fast she can run. We\'ll all know in 10 days if she is good enough.
Good luck
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> 2. P-Dub didn\'t have a dime on Zenyatta in last
> year\'s Classic. Next thing you know, he is going
> to say he never bets on Mike Smith because he is
> concerned about the wide trips. :)
>
>
> Jim
Jimbo,
Honestly, I didn\'t. I had kool aid instead of a beer.
Now Smith, had a nice bet on Becrux on the BC 2008 undercard where he, sit down please, comes up the rail to score at 14-1. Never been afraid of betting on Smith.
Love the comment Jimbo, good stuff.
No, I\'m not kidding. You interpret whatever you want. If you feel she was all out then you do. Have a great BC.
Smalltimer,
Appreciate your appreciation of the big mare. You are right, we will have our answer in 10 days. I do believe she will run her race, you would have to be a fool to think she won\'t run her race. I believe she is the most consistently fast horse in the last 20 years. I just don\'t believe she is as fast as the top colts on dirt. However, I don\'t see her out of the Super, as I will pencil in neagtive 1.5 for her, which will get her 3rd or 4th, with the right trip, and make the Classic a race I can\'t bet vertically, but I will fire all barrels horizontally against her.
She did everything you say she did in last year\'s Classic. She did it on Pro-Ride against a field that has had one horse come back and win since that race. It is one of those \"negative key races\" for those that believe in such things .
Best of luck,
Jim
Jim...What did you think of QR\'s last race? At 1/8th shorter where he looked to be in perfect form going in, that one scares me. Also since he has such monster numbers by every service don\'t you think he\'s going to get his odds bet down pretty low? I know a lot of the serious players are high on LAL, but the big group of occasional players that jump in on Cup day I think will be backing him heavily based on speed figures.
Jimbo,
You say, \"
Jimbo,
You say, \"She did it on Pro Ride against a field that has had one horse come back and win since that race. It is one of those negative key races for those that believe in those things.\"
What about Gio Ponti\'s 2 wins? What about Richard\'s Kid? What about Awesome Gem? What about Girolamo? What about the 2 wins by Twice Over?
Off the top of my head, thats 5 different horses that account for at least 7 different wins since the BC Classic in \'09.
Is that still a negative key race when nearly 1/2 of the field has won again?
Or are you just talking about those who came back and won on ProRide, if that is how you sculpt your template?
Funny story here: Last year we had a really nice 3 year old that ran 3 Grade 1 races at a mile and a quarter. He cut the following fractions in those races:
23.4/47.1/111.3/136.3/202.4
25.2/50.0/113.1/137.3/202.2
24.3/48.3/112.3/136.2/201.2
For 3 consecutive races he kept getting a little faster at 10 furlongs, based upon the final times, his ability to close and finish was not questioned.
In that 3rd race, at the 1/2 mile pole he was 10 lengths in front of Zenyatta, at the 3/4 mark he was 12 1/2 lengths in front of her, at 1 Mile he was 2 lengths in front of her, at the stretch call he was 1/2 length in front of her, and at the wire he was 3 widening lengths behind her. Yep, Summer Bird was a nice horse and I don\'t see where he suffered moving from the sloppy tracks at Belmont and Saratoga to the Pro Ride that day.
I wish he had remained healthy, cause he owned QR last year.
Good luck Jimbo
Tried to delete this one. sorry
Smalltimer,
Shame on me for quoting an outdated stat. When I read that about 4 months ago, Gio Ponti was the only horse from BC Classic who had come back and won. Since then, you are correct that Richard\'s Kid, Awesome Gem and Girolamo have won.
Gio Ponti on turf, Girolamo sprinting, but nonetheless they have won. My bad.
However, it doesn\'t change my opinion that on Pro-Ride, the field she beat last year was well below par for the race. Gio Ponti, a turf horse, came 2nd.
It also doesn\'t change the premise that I really am basing my opinion on, that the Pro-Ride wins for her and anybody else, mean nothing as far as racing at Churchill on dirt.
Jim
Hey man, thanks for the message.
Good question.
There are 3 things I am keying on with QR
1) He runs his best races off layoffs and he\'s had a freshening coming into this
2) Pletcher is now learning what other great trainers have over the years, that is have his horses ready for to run their big race in THE big race and not be over the top by the time they get there. We all saw Super Saver in the Ark Derby and then in the KY Derby. QR wasn\'t over the top for the Woodward, I think that\'s a good thing
3) He\'s the fastest horse in the race. I get anrgy when the fastest one beats me
I think the better question is how can we as handicappers avoid mixing our egos into our perceptions of her chances? If one loves her or hates her, does one need to be proven correct to have one\'s \"opinion\" validated - either way one camp or the other will be proven \"brilliant\" for their predictions. It is interesting how much ego can trump honest reality and perceptions get real cloudy when handicapping such epic races. I for one know the downside of needing to be right for all the wrong reasons - in the end such hubris kills.
I tried to attach (but I can\'t figure out how?) a so-called Ragozin insider\'s point of view (we have the T-G point of view so I figured let\'s see the other side, too) from The Thoroughbred Times. In short, he doesn\'t think she can do it based on the numbers as there are at least four horses as good as she. I have no prediction that I can stand by except to say that the mere definition of a once in a lifetime champion is he or she reaches down and finds something more in the time of their greatest challenge - the whole is more than the sum of it\'s parts so to speak. That information isn\'t going to found on either a Ragozin or Thorograph Sheet. Why does one player hit three home runs in a world series game and another strike out three times? Some athletes simply become more than they have ever been in that one moment of greatness. We\'ll see if she has that stuff inside her one way or the other.
The only suggestion I have as to how to play the race is to do it like you do any other race and map out your strategies. I want to wait until closer to the race when I factor in weather conditions, post positions, etc. All I hope for is a fast track with good weather and no excuses. Churchill can be a rather biased strip at times (especially big days right after rain!). I\'ve seen that track have a golden rail like none other, and I\'d hate to see something wacky like that affect her performance - but of course equine champions beat track biases and all adverse conditions anyway. Anyone who says they know one way or the other is just guessing. Without any other information, I think Lucky is probably her biggest threat because he is still improving and the others have shown what you\'ll get. I never thought of QR as a mile and a quarter horse, he\'s a miler to me, and one of the best. Someone else I guess could step up, but, hopefully, the long Churchill stretch and good weather will leave no excuses for anyone. If she wins, it will be hard to argue that she\'s not one of the greatest of all time or the greatest, from any objective point of view - what other horse in history has done what she will have done? If she loses, the doubters will rise up, confident in their negativity and remind us that she never beat anyone and ran slow numbers on plastic tracks in her own backyard.
Good luck to all horses and handicappers alike, and may everyone come home safely.
Cove,
I can\'t argue with the \" rage factor \" when beat by the fastest horse. That is of course with the exceptions of forecasting a bounce or 3/5 odds.
There is no doubt that QR is far and away the fastest horse in the race and if he is in negative 7 or negative 5 land he is home at the 1/8 pole and no one will catch him. That is a big but and I have to look back at the very slow fractions he set in the Whitney as I watched in disbelief as Blame ran him down ? Inexcusable is all I can come up with as I watched the reply 10 times and am accounting for the 5 lbs. in weights.
He is rested and if he fires you will be getting 3 or 4/1 on the fastest horse in the race. I\'m still very suspect of him at 10 furlongs and can\'t see him running close to his top here.
Applause for shaking up JB 9 days until lift off !!!
Good luck,
FD
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo,
> You say, \"She did it on Pro Ride against a field
> that has had one horse come back and win since
> that race. It is one of those negative key races
> for those that believe in those things.\"
> What about Gio Ponti\'s 2 wins? What about
> Richard\'s Kid? What about Awesome Gem? What about
> Girolamo? What about the 2 wins by Twice Over?
> Off the top of my head, thats 5 different horses
> that account for at least 7 different wins since
> the BC Classic in \'09.
> Is that still a negative key race when nearly 1/2
> of the field has won again?
> Or are you just talking about those who came back
> and won on ProRide, if that is how you sculpt your
> template?
>
> Funny story here: Last year we had a really nice
> 3 year old that ran 3 Grade 1 races at a mile and
> a quarter. He cut the following fractions in
> those races:
> 23.4/47.1/111.3/136.3/202.4
> 25.2/50.0/113.1/137.3/202.2
> 24.3/48.3/112.3/136.2/201.2
>
> For 3 consecutive races he kept getting a little
> faster at 10 furlongs, based upon the final times,
> his ability to close and finish was not
> questioned.
>
> In that 3rd race, at the 1/2 mile pole he was 10
> lengths in front of Zenyatta, at the 3/4 mark he
> was 12 1/2 lengths in front of her, at 1 Mile he
> was 2 lengths in front of her, at the stretch call
> he was 1/2 length in front of her, and at the wire
> he was 3 widening lengths behind her. Yep, Summer
> Bird was a nice horse and I don\'t see where he
> suffered moving from the sloppy tracks at Belmont
> and Saratoga to the Pro Ride that day.
> I wish he had remained healthy, cause he owned QR
> last year.
> Good luck Jimbo
Rip Van Winkle also won a G1 over in Europe this year.
I don\'t know how important or unimportant what older horses do later on. It\'s not like they\'re not a known quantity by the time they run in the Classic.
\"I tried to attach (but I can\'t figure out how?) a so-called Ragozin insider\'s point of view (we have the T-G point of view so I figured let\'s see the other side, too) from The Thoroughbred Times. In short, he doesn\'t think she can do it based on the numbers as there are at least four horses as good as she is.\"
Dana,
Don\'t know who the Rag insider you mention is, but on their stuff she is circling to her top(a figure equal to a neg -2 1/2 on TG)
Mike
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> -I haven\'t written anything about Zenyatta or
> Snith in quite awhile. Standard bullrush??
> Whatever. A bit erroneous to say standard
> bullrush. You write non-stop about Zenyatta,
> Smith, the connections....all with the same point
> of view. You want to talk about tired?? Give me a
> break pal.
I write non-stop about Zenyatta & co.?
You got the wrong guy, bud. Unless you can cough up some evidence.
> - The most strident of backers. So you\'re saying
> , what Rick, there are only 2 of those??
You got caught fabricating what I wrote, and now, what -- you want to argue specifics?
> You seem a bit sensitive. Or does having the same
> undefeated horse slap you around at the mutuel
> windows contribute to you bitter attitude??
Oh puh-leeze. If anybody on this forum is overly sensitive regarding things written about Zenyatta, Mike Smith, etc., it\'s YOU, hands down. I\'m not the one that JB has to continually admonish to tone it down around here.
And you are about to break your leg jumping to conclusions about Zenyatta beating me at the windows. I bet one race that she was in: last year\'s Classic. That\'s it. The rest of her races were largely unbettable. (Oooh, can I say that without offending your delicate sensibilities?)
If you would slow down, take a spoonful of your anti-bile medication, and go re-read my response to poster Funny Cide, you would see that my reply was not a slap at Zenyatta, or her supporters, per se -- it was the idea that any winning bet is a good bet. That\'s rubbish. Your subsequent, misguided responses to my post are pretty much eligible for the same scrap heap.
As far as any references to classhandicapper, frankly, I don\'t recall much of what he wrote, other how than the races are run may affect the performance. But we\'re dealing with an external element here--synthetic tracks. Other than that my short term memory is just that.
As far as the 3 point jump making close to zero sense, well maybe your right--if this were on synthetic I would agree, no top. But the dirt surface adds uncertainty. As I said, there\'s a chance the 2nd Oaklawn run was an off race. You mention 16 in a row within the band, but only two were on dirt and she jumped 5 points first dirt to start the skein. So far she shows 1 big dirt top and technically a pair-up. Yes, 6yos infrequently run new tops, and while she hasn\'t really improved in 2-1/2 years she also hasn\'t deteriorated, a lick. New tops at 6 are infrequent, and it would be easier to say the jump was more likely if she were 5, but she didn\'t race on dirt last year and the sire category is 5 and up. To reiterate the points are: 1. she got to the races as a late 3yo, ergo she\'s much more likely to hit her peak later than tradition as well, at age 5, or in this case, 6. The pedigree data slant towards favoring this contention. Long term, the fact that she\'s neither developed, nor deteriorated suggests to me that she might have another level in her which I project the new surface may enable. Short term, she\'s cycling forward.
As for underestimating her, well, she\'s beat us every time. However Jimbo, I accept your explanation as to making bets trying to beat her. And I do agree she\'s hasn\'t faced much in the last two years, especially this year.
As for the others in the race, I was trying to make a case for Zenyatta. QR could certainly run big and even his bad ones are good. Blame only has one bad effort, one. And I wouldn\'t be that dismissive of Haynesfield. He\'s already outrun his pedigree which tells you he\'s a freak of sorts. He has speed and he\'s only developed a point. Five of his last seven have been top efforts.
10%, 15% -- the chances she\'ll run the new top. It\'s hard to put a number on it. But I don\'t think it\'s 0 or less than 5 percent.
TGAB,
Fair enough. I understand you were making a case for her, which is what that troublemaker Covello asked for (he put you in this spot).
But to be honest, even if I give you the 10 to 15% chance of a new top (which I don\'t), it is a moot point. She will be 2-1, 5-2 tops, and needs a new top to win. At 10% she would need to be 9-1 to be fair valuee and at 15%, she would need to be 6.67 to 1. She won\'t be near those odds.
Quality Road needs a pair up to win. He will be 2 or 3 times Zenyatta\'s price (somewhere between 9-2 and 8-1). I give him a much better chance to pair then the 6 year old mare to run the new top and like I said, I get 2 or 3 times the value.
LAL needs a new top to win, but is an improving 3 year old, whose bet is as good as anybody elses except QR and the aberrational Fly Down performance. I will take the late season 3 year old colt to run the new top ahead of the 6 year old mare, as well. (again at better value, likely double her price again).
We will see. Should be interesting. Hoping to be alive horizontally in the pick-4 to QR and LAL, with a few tickets covering Fly Down.
9 days and counting!!
Good luck
Hey Jimbo,
I think you hit this right on the head. The issue for me is not can Zenyatta win. It\'s, is she a good bet. From the looks of it she will need to run a new top as a 6 year old, on dirt, close from the back and avoid a wide trip to get there. That\'s a tall order. Especially when I see all those 4w 5w comments in her running line. The synthetics seem to be much more forgiving for this type of move than a dirt track, especially Churchill.
The way I see it, you can\'t know for sure if a horse can do something they\'ve never done before. It\'s more a matter of trying to factor how likely or unlikely that is to happen. So if I\'m trying to figure out something like whether or not a horse can get a good trip or run a new top, I have to figure the odds into that somehow to compensate for the risk I am taking. If I\'m getting high odds I can usually tend to compensate for that risk, so I will bet a race like the horse can do what it needs to do. And if I\'m getting low odds I will tend to bet the race like the horse can\'t.
Given that Z is likely to go off at around 5/2 or so at best, I don\'t think you have a lot or room to compensate for the risk. So for me, the issue of whether or not she can win is a mute point. She obviously knows where the wire is, seems to be unaffected by early pace, is undefeated, etc. So she COULD win. But she is absolutely unbettable at those odds. So I\'ve got to play this one as if she has 0% chance to win.
I agree that there will be a fair amount of value to be found by playing against her horizontally in the multi-race exotics. But I also think you can find value in playing against Z in the exacta given the way the public likes to play the favorite over and under their primary horse in this pool. And if it rains I think you can play into it even more confidently.
You\'ve got some serious issues bro. Good luck with them.
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You\'ve got some serious issues bro.
I certainly have an issue with someone who regularly pulls the \"Cut, Snip and Obliterate\" act on his fellow forum members, then claims someone else has \"serious issues\" when they do it. You got me on that one.
Good luck with the Breeders Cup, Paul, and win or lose, may Zenyatta come home safe and sound to a happy retirement.
\"And I wouldn\'t be that dismissive of Haynesfield. He\'s already outrun his pedigree which tells you he\'s a freak of sorts. He has speed and he\'s only developed a point. Five of his last seven have been top efforts\"
TGAB,
There is more speed now with Morning Line showing up but under-rated Haynesfield has never been beaten when he makes the front.
Mike
The basic premise of his article was that on RAGS anyway she\'s quite a bit slower this year than past years. That was his argument against thinking she\'ll run a new top, which in his opinion, she would need to do to win it. Sorry I couldn\'t post it, the link they sent me is dead.
Dana,
I\'m thrilled that people are putting money into the pools that are solely talking about who will run tops and not the 5-6 other factors that will determine most of the outcomes.
Mike
Miff wrote:
\"I\'m thrilled that people are putting money into the pools that are solely talking about who will run tops and not the 5-6 other factors that will determine most of the outcomes.\"
Actually, most of the outcomes will be decided by seven factors, Miff, but one will be decided by eight.
Rich,
Pick a number,some have 10 factors, but info overload can kill you.
Mike
Rick,
I didn\'t cut and snip. I challenged you on one of the points you made. Thats all. From there it went a bit off course.
Agree to disagree. I\'ve got nothing against you Rick. Good luck as well.
The writer\'s name is Bob Ehalt by the way. Ifyou go to Thorobred Times site you may be able to find it. Title is : Zenyatta must overcome multiple obstacles to win second Classic
Just to be clear-- the opinions in that column are not from a Ragozin user. It\'s a weekly column where they interview Friedman, the opinions are his. That\'s the \"father of speed figures\" column (that part has now been changed at least twice after people including me complained).
Believe me, Ehalt is a Ragozin user.
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I didn\'t imply anyone referred to Zenyatta as a
> slug or a slow rat. But, multiple times her
> competition was denegrated.
Yes, and they made fun of her competition, too.
Leamas
Footlick Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just another comment. Zenyatta\'s wins are
> extremely measured. I know they don\'t usually do
> that in this age, but it reminds me of what Shoe
> used to do with Forego. And before anybody starts
> I am not saying she is as good as Forego. But
> everybody has to realize that if Smith pushed her
> those wins would be by a much larger margin. They
> are very, very measured IMO. Thanks again for the
> blog.
Oh, Please with the measured wins! Is the jock going to risk an 18-0 record on a win by a nose or maybe a head? --No way! I can see shutting a big winner down, but she was all out to win at the wire.
She\'s a big horse with a long stride and the extra furlong (and a half) will be in her favor, but the tighter turns, the extra year in age, and the competition are all big threats to her hegemony.
As I said a long time ago, my only fear in trying to beat her is that Blame, QR, and Lucky run off form. If any of those three fire a top effort, she will have evaporated a myth in one race. Big mistake to put it all on the line.
I will use QR, Blame, Lucky and maybe Fly Down in first and second with perhaps Z and First Dude in third and fourth ($5 super). If I had to pick the trifecta cold, it would probably be LAL, QR, First Dude.
Leamas
Zenyatta has a puncher\'s chance, but I think Lookin\' at Lucky looks best in here. Quality Road has gotten worse each time out and I don\'t think the distance is going to help. The race may not be the bonanza I had hoped for. I can see short priced horses in at least two of the top three spots. HP