The first look at the sheets says he is LOADED for the BC.
If his horses are going to run their numbers in KY, he\'s gonna be a huge factor
Boy, I could sure use an expert read on this Pletcher guy.
Was oh-fer-forever in the BC at one time, right? (Or am I confusing him with Frankel?)
Now he seems to win a BC race now and again...but certainly not in proportion to what one might expect, what with his pantheon of top-shelf horseflesh.
Is that about right so far?
Can we revisit this topic, and while we are at it, would it be inappropriate to work in a discussion about what sort of testing we might expect to be in place at Churchill in two weeks?
Loaded subject, I know. I swear I am not trying to start any crap; I wish to God it wasn\'t even any sort of issue at all.
Pletcher horses are 3 for 66 in Breeders Cup history (granted sometimes he has had more than one horse in the same race). His winners were:
Ashado (Distaff, 2004)
Speightstown (Sprint, 2004)
English Channel (Turf, 2007)
The 2004 BC was at Lone Star, the 2007 BC was at Monmouth.
He was 0 for 10 last year and 0 for 5 in 2008.
This is of course THE handicapping issue for the BC. I will say this-- an awful lot of people have set up campaigns with the BC specifically in mind, passing good spots to get here fresh (Dutrow with his 2yo, Pletcher with Malibu Prayer, QR, etc.). The logical conclusion would be that they at least think they can get their horses to run their races at CD.
Wasn\'t he a big o-for in the KY Derby also? The really good ones break through sooner or later and perhaps this is just his year to do so.
Rick B,
TAP\'s record speaks for itself, so if he\'s using,as some occasionally suggest here, it\'s not working out too well on big days.Did win the Derby this year with a slug that totally tripped out in the wet.
They are super testing for the BC, which is good for all the known stuff, useless for the undetectable \"magic bullet\" Good luck!
Mike
This news is from September. Not sure if the governor has signed it yet but he was expected to do so before the BC.
Racing commission OKs out-of-competition drug testing
State Commission expands authority for random checks, institutes five-year minimum suspension
By Will Graves - Associated Press
LOUISVILLE — Kentucky horse racing officials have expanded the state\'s power to test horses for drugs, passing a measure Tuesday that will allow them to test any horse eligible to race in the Bluegrass anywhere at any time.
The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission unanimously approved an aggressive random testing measure Tuesday in hopes of further curbing blood doping and drug use in the sport.
\"This is the best way to attack the most serious problem in racing,\" said Ned Bonnie, chairman of the racing commission\'s rules committee.
The policy has been tabbed as an emergency regulation by the KHRC, speeding up the ratification process. It will go into effect once signed by Gov. Steve Beshear and filed with the Legislative Research Commission, which should happen well before the Breeders\' Cup championships at Churchill Downs in early November.
The new rules will complement the race-day testing already in place. The new tests are designed to detect blood-doping agents that are difficult to discover in post-race tests.
The policy gives officials the power to test any horse eligible to race in the state for a series of banned substances, regardless of location. Similar rules are already in place in New York, New Jersey and Indiana.
\"I think our list of prohibitive substances is a little bit more expansive than it is in the other states,\" said KHRC attorney Tim West.
Under the rules, an owner or trainer would have no more than six hours to make a horse available for testing once notified.
Refusal to submit for testing in a timely manner makes the horse ineligible to race in Kentucky for six months, and it\'s likely other states would honor that suspension. If a horse tests positive for some of the worst drug violations, the penalties for its handlers are stiff — a minimum five-year suspension and up to $50,000 in fines.
An owner or trainer would receive a lifetime ban for a second violation.
While applauding the move, standardbred owner and breeder Alan Leavitt said the penalties are not in line with regulations in other states. Leavitt was hoping for an automatic 10-year suspension for a first offense.
\"I think it is a bad image for Kentucky to be giving to the racing world,\" Leavitt said.
The approved suspension period of five to 10 years is considerably higher than the original proposed ban of one to three years. Thoroughbred owner and commission member Tom Conway, who saddled 2010 Blue Grass Stakes winner Stately Victor, said the penalty was made flexible to fend off any potential legal challenges.
\"There was a group that thought it ought to be just a flat 10 years,\" Conway said. \"But that\'s tantamount to a life sentence for most people in racing.\"
Conway added he couldn\'t imagine a mitigating circumstance in a blood-doping case but wanted to give officials some wiggle room in handing out suspensions.
Finding violators can be difficult given the small window in which most blood-doping agents are detectable, West said, but the severe penalties are in place to act as a deterrent.
\"I would say that if we never catch anybody then the rule has been effective,\" West said. \"As long as we\'re testing people and not catching people, then the rule has done its job.\"
Read more: http://www.kentucky.com/2010/09/08/1424235/racing-commission-oks-out-of-competition.html#ixzz138OuQrYx
miff Wrote:
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> TAP\'s record speaks for itself, so if he\'s
> using,as some occasionally suggest here, it\'s not
> working out too well on big days.
> They are super testing for the BC
My opinion is that TAP is a pretty smart guy, and if he is using the rest of the year, he\'s NOT bringing them in all jacked up for the BC...hence his horrible record, the theory goes. And it\'s a compelling theory alright.
>useless for the undetectable \"magic bullet\".
I no longer believe this part. Testing will never get in front of the cheaters, but it has largely caught up.
Unidentifiable substances exist, at the moment; these will eventually be identified. \"Undetectable\" stuff? Not anymore: if it has mass, correct application of GC-MS will find it (and if the testing labs are using anything less, they are just wasting time and money); if it doesn\'t have mass, it doesn\'t exist.
\"I no longer believe this part. Testing will never get in front of the cheaters, but it has largely caught up\"
Rick,
Right now in NY, they are beside themselves trying to find out what Rudy Rod is doing.Masking agents,designer cocktails et al.Pre and post race blood and urine show nothing. Special extra security/scrutiny reveals nothing.
The official line is he is tapping, using massage therapy,power nutrition and a host of old/new stuff.Rudy might be 1/10 the \'horseman\" of about 10-15 trainers on the NYRA circuit but is winning at an unheard of 38% at the present meet and 30% for the year.Thats not possible unless he is using.
The testers are not even close to catching up to the chemists,though the clowns that run run racing would have you believe that. It\'s a PR exercise thats too late even though they have improved the testing for traditional stuff.
Mike
miff Wrote:
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> The testers are not even close to catching up to
> the chemists,though the clowns that run run racing
> would have you believe that.
If this were true, then why do certain guys pretty much go cold on big days like BC?
Doesn\'t make sense, unless the REAL problem in NY is how testing is performed, and how often -- a problem with the humans, not with the actual test technology, per se.
If the testing is performed and applied correctly, it\'s quite capable of catching some punk-ass former 5% rider with a so-called magic needle. These \"clowns\" that you say run racing seem to have you sold on the idea that they have really stepped up surveillance and testing on Rudy Rod, and yet he\'s still getting 30% winners. And you believe them?
I don\'t. No \"magic bullets\" -- I don\'t know you personally, Mike, but frankly, it\'s been my experience that that\'s how losers think: there is \"something out there\" (ala The X-Files), that always prevents them from winning. Really, if you were a trainer and had such a thing, so powerful yet completely undetectable -- why stop at 30% winners? Why not just load up and win everything, shoot for 100%?
It\'s more likely that the problems with testing are bureaucracy, human incompetence, lack of funding, indifference, etc...the boring stuff that has always plagued places that suffer from organizational failure.
\"Really, if you were a trainer and had such a thing, so powerful yet completely undetectable -- why stop at 30% winners? Why not just load up and win everything, shoot for 100%?\"
Rick,
That may be case, but not every horse responds the same way to what any guy is illegally using.Oscar did not win every race either.
As far as certain guys disappearing on big days(assume you mean TAP), ya gotta have the horse to win, he hasn\'t.
Mike
Miff:
RudyRod\'s work on display in Race 2 at Belmont today.
Endless Circle not only went from a horse running \"4s\" and \"6s\" to a horse
running negative numbers at age 6, he also went from a gappy horse showing vet
scratches to a horse which has already started 11 times as a 6YO.
Last week, Todd Schrupp on TVG mentioned RR\'s amazing results, and Paul LoDuca
(to his credit, one of the few TVG hosts with any knowledge of NY racing)
replied that RR\'s success is the result of \"hard work\", that RR is \"at the barn
early every morning\".
Could TG please start to include a trainer stat which denotes the time a trainer
gets to the barn each morning? How has Bob Baffert, a notorious late riser,
gotten into the Hall of Fame?
Bee,
As you know, you can sleep at the barn, but if the horses have no talent, they don\'t win.I would venture a guess that no trainer in NY, licensed as along as Rudy, has had anywhere near his success. He\'s using or has God helping him,check the TG figs for many of his newly acquired.
Mike
Just as an aside, you can inject the hell out of a horse (hocks, etc) and keep him really sound, pain-free and firing. Most trainers do that judiciously and cautiously. Some fewer do it way too frequently (for the long-term health of the joint). Something to consider. It doesn\'t always take magic to get a horse to run his best constantly - sometimes it\'s just choosing short-term gain over long-term well-being.
The move-up guys aren\'t just keeping them firing. As Richie noted, Rudy (for example) is taking older horses with a considerable history and making them run a LOT faster than they ever have before.
miff Wrote:
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> ...magic bullet
Rick B. Wrote:
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> ...no magic bullet
From DRF Results:
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Hawthorne 10/23/2010
3rd Race
Off: 2:35 | 1 Mile 70 Yards | 3 Year Olds And Up | Claiming ($17,500) | Open | Purse: $11,484
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
3 Magic Bullet Razo E Jr 118 17.00 7.80 4.00
4 Sicomoro Perez E E 118 5.60 2.80
2 Gage Park Geroux F 122 6.60
Don\'t ask.
:::sigh:::
True. But you have to remember, that the only way to make a horse run faster (physically quicker - as opposed to having more endurance, lasting longer, etc) is to either eliminate pain or infirmary that was slowing it down (eliminate the things that slow it down, make it lose interest, etc), or giving it a stimulant.
There are not any stimulants we can\'t test for, even when they are the type of stimulation that comes with another drug (like a clenbuterol excess)
Thus I attribute the vast majority of mucking (which I think is less than most gamblers seem to) to various methods - legal or not - of controlling the aches and pains these guys have. JMO.
miff Wrote:
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> As far as certain guys disappearing on big
> days(assume you mean TAP), ya gotta have the horse
> to win, he hasn\'t.
>
> Mike
And the rest of the year, he\'s using? Or, is it that TAP has the horses to win all year long, except at BC time when they magically come up a wee bit short?
You are a man of many answers, Mike; a few of them are even consistent with each other.
Rick B,
Re TAP, only Kool Aid drinkers believe that he uses. His stock is so superior he has to win his share.Many of TAP\'s derby and BC horses are usually over the top when they show up.
Mike
Miff-- give me a list of the horses in the last 5 years that Pletcher has taken over from other trainers, and I\'ll pull sheets on them and post them.
Sight-- just to choose one example, EPO is neither a painkiller or stimulant, neither are broncho-dilators.
So Miff, you are saying that on an annual basis, Pletcher can\'t train a horse properly up to a Breeder\'s Cup race? He doesn\'t say at some point during the year, \"I\'m going to rest this one and try to get him to pop at the BC, because last year my horses were a little over the top and this year I\'ll do things differently.\" Wouldn\'t an intelligent person make adjustments to try to win the big ones?
TAP just keeps making the same blunder, every year, of pushing his horses too hard and having them come into the BC \"over the top\" every single year? Wouldn\'t he have to be a complete moron to do this same thing over and over again?
Either that or maybe he just doesn\'t care about winning BC races?
If you are correct and it\'s just a matter of his horses being \"over the top,\" since he\'s doing it every year he\'d have to be a total dunce - and I don\'t think that\'s the case.
HP
HP,
TAP\'s record for BC and TC entrants over many years is awful.Whatever he is or isn\'t doing training wise, his horses don\'t win anywhere near his normal strike rate on big days.
Mike
EPO doesn\'t do much more than normal splenic contraction at racetime does in the horse.
The legend is much greater than the reality of so much of this stuff.
I want to stay away from the drug speculation with TAP...it\'s almost pointless to comment on it anymore.
Regarding his putting horses over the top before the big days, however, it always seemed pretty clear to me that he did this and that he\'s trying to correct the pattern. You might ask why it took so long. One reason: because he works for owners who like winning the prep races...there\'s a lot of money in those races too...do you think an owner of a good horse has incredible patience in this regard, that he or she would prefer to lose a prep on the possibility that he might win the big race to follow?
That\'s a tough call for both the trainer and the owner. In this business, there is a lot to be said for taking the easier money now. You have no idea whether or not your horse will even stay healthy until the next race.
TAP has made a lot of money for people in prep races with good horses...but winning with Super Saver might be an example of how he is changing his approach to the Classics when he can. I bet the horse because it seemed to me, clearly, that the horse was guided into the Derby with a very different approach than TAP had used with some better horses in previous years. And Eskendreya\'s getting hurt makes my point more clearly.
\"TAP\'s record for BC and TC entrants over many years is awful.\"
Everybody knows this Miff.
\"Many of TAP\'s derby and BC horses are usually over the top when they show up.\"
Maybe it\'s because he can\'t get his horses the proper \"Kool Aid\" on the big day. That\'s all.
As far as I\'m concerned it\'s usually a positive because his BC horses take money and you can toss a lot of them, despite the fact that they look like real contenders.
Good point about the preps, both in terms of purse money and the fact that a win
in a lot of the preps is good enough to \"make\" a stallion.
TAP has as far as I can recall had two positives in his career; one of them I
believe was Wait a While in the BC Filly/Mare Turf in 08.
Jerry,
Here\'s a list of horses he\'s gotten from other trainers in the last five years (it\'s not exhaustive, doesn\'t didn\'t include horses who only had a few previous races before the switch):
A. P. Arrow
Bad Mover
Ball Four
Bribon
Fleet Indian
Giant Mover
Go Go Shoot
Hilda\'s Passion
Hour Glass
Lawyer Ron
Le Grand Cru
McVictory
Quality Road
With Flying Colors
Z Humor
TGJB Wrote:
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> The move-up guys aren\'t just keeping them firing.
> As Richie noted, Rudy (for example) is taking
> older horses with a considerable history and
> making them run a LOT faster than they ever have
> before.
What kind of drug do you think can make a horse do this?
I always hear about \"the juice\" but no one ever knows what \"the juice\" is. Whatever it is, it\'s not nameless, faceless, and with unknown characteristics. If someone knows enough about \"the juice\" to give it to a horse, then the guys whose job it is to catch them also know what it is.
It\'s like thinking Rudy can fix broken legs but Larry Bramlage has no idea how he\'s doing it.
Nonsense. I\'ve posted here several times about broncho-dilators, red blood cell stimulators, lactic acid neuralizers, etc. If you don\'t get tired or get more oxygen performance improves.
I\'m not sure everyone realizes how small a change is required to make a BIG difference. A 1% improvement in time at a mile is a second. Think a second makes a difference in a horse race?
JB,
We spoke about lactic acid and more oxygen at the spa this summer and the comparison between Rudy R. and the Late Oscar B. and how their horses never got tired regardless of fractions, being pressed etc.. So many of the \" move up \" guy\'s just blast off wire to wire no matter who runs with them or how fast they go. They just have that extra gear to draw away in the stretch when they look beat ?
Look back at the Ferriola\'s, Scott Lakes, Parisella\'s, Bruce Levine, Shuman, Oscar and Rudy and there Mo\'s were always go to front and don\'t stop. Pletchers horses are different as they win and move up big figure wise from all over ?
I noticed this particularly last year as anything he sent from Palm Meadows to Gulf, Fair Grounds, Oaklawn, anywhere moved up big time. Quite a few were front runners but a lot came from off he pace etc.. You can also look at the difference in the Spa meet without the detention barn this year. Those numbers speak volumes ?
Granted this guy has as good or better stock given to him as any trainer in the history of racing ever has so it\'s a puzzle as to why he continually under performs at the big dances ?
I have a question, and maybe this has been addressed so I apologize if it has. I know that oxygenating the blood by transfusions has been banned in human sports. Is is allowed in thoroughbred racing? Or are you talking aboout oxygen tents. Sorry for my ignorance.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Nonsense. I\'ve posted here several times about
> broncho-dilators, red blood cell stimulators,
> lactic acid neuralizers, etc. If you don\'t get
> tired or get more oxygen performance improves.
>
> I\'m not sure everyone realizes how small a change
> is required to make a BIG difference. A 1%
> improvement in time at a mile is a second. Think a
> second makes a difference in a horse race?
Why don\'t they just hire you to catch \'em, Jerry?
Funny-- the Jockey Club did bring me in towork with their integrity panel, and recommended some of what I sugested (the early stuff about TCO2, about 3 years ago). But they balked at my saying all test results needed to be published, and to some degree are a toothless tiger-- they can just recommend, not mandate.
Until we know who is really being tested, how, for what, and what the results are, we can\'t begin to figure out the specifics of what is being done.