I just got back from Baltimore and stopped by the office to see what was going on, so I\'ll have more comments tomorrow about several posts, especially one of David Patent\'s on the other board. I had just enough of a saver on the exacta to break even for the race.
Every single TG player I know of except for me took a negative read on Peace Rules, and obviously you guys were right.
Meanwhile, I\'ve got a little excercise for David Patent. I\'m giving you the dreaded hypothetical $1,000 to bet on the Preakness USING FRIEDMAN\'S ANALYSIS, which I just saw. Looks to me like you are using Midway Road with all but 2 horses in exotics. Make a play assuming MR is on all tickets (possible but not a certainty, given that he says some are ONLY usable with a longshot key, and doesn\'t say it with others, and may have done some small side stuff with Kissin Saint). You can weight FC and PR a little heavier, but you don\'t get to really load up because he says they are underlays but can be used as \"savers\" in exotics.
I\'m guessing you get about 4-1 on the race.
I\'ll have some more comments on your post later.
Red board talk doesn\'t usually interest me but I bought TG Preakness card and David P\'s comments on the other board got me to reread TG\'s analysis. I\'m no TG apologist but I don\'t know what the hell DP\'s talking about. JB clearly pointed MIDWAY ROAD as the live longshot. And count me in on those who played PEACE RULES to have gone over the top and boxed FC&MR exacta. BEST MINISTER had a somewhat similar line as MR though a bigger jump to last top but I thought TG\'s analysis of MR also pointed to BM. Despite the \'ugly\' jump classy 3yo\'s in springtime tend to pair up.... By the way JB I\'m hoping you take some time after doing your Preakness numbers to discuss that ever changing variant.
With all due respect, and I do respect you, it isn\'t good for business to publish an Analysis, with specific betting instructions, and then explain that you, yourself bet the race differently.
You didn\'t recommend an FC-MR exacta. You didn\'t even recommend FC in the money in the Analysis of the race.
I don\'t mind losing...we all lose bets the larger percentage of the time. And I am not upset, because I am responsible for my own decisions.
But I won\'t be buying the Analyis product anymore.
Sorry you feel that way, and we don\'t push the analysis-- we feel it is much better to learn how to use the data yourself.
As I said after last year\'s Derby-- we do the analysis under the assumption that the ones who use that product are less sophisticated players, who bet less. Our handicappers are therefore told to give out plays with a small number of combinations, so the small player can cover them. This is not necessarily going to be the same play that you or I would make given a larger bankroll, or when we see the odds.
I bet about $500 on the race, less than 20% of what I bet on the Derby. Midway Road went off much longer than I thought he would, since both Friedman and myself were pushing him. I ended up having him on 90% of my tickets, but for the most part my play was very similar to the one I gave out. The differences were 1) since MR was a big price, most of my play was that part of the bet, and I protected big under PR, and smaller under the live longshots, 2) I only had a small amount on a tri and super part wheel with PR on top of the other \"longshots\" I liked, since they weren\'t going off long, and 3) I played a $10 exacta under FC to get my money back, because he was absolutely the only other horse who could beat MR if that one ran, and the exacta was paying about twice what I thought it would when I did the analysis (more than that with 20 minutes to post, when I bet).
Having said all that, I will also say this-- for what it is, our analysis is good value, and is better than anyone else is offering, and I believe could offer. It probably doesn\'t beat the takeout, but it does well, and you won\'t be getting picks like the $123 horse Alan put up Friday too many other places.
As a newcomer to your products I didn\'t trust that I could read and evaluate the Preakness on my own...am just gearing up on the whole thing...losing money in the process, but learning too.
So the Analysis was a convenient way to get YOUR insight on the Preakness.
I take the blame and I respect the way in which you bet the race on your own. Hopefully, I will have a better grip on the numbers in time and won\'t go that route.
Just an interesting, although depressing, note: I had a horse running Sunday and checked the TG sheets...and I knew before the race that I was going to lose, as a result.
My trainer was telling me that it was an easy spot...BS...the sheets indicated clearly that it was not.
Hopefully, the colt will advance off that race and get back to his peak soon.