First of all, whether or not it was a bad ride, Al Khali had a bad trip, which is what matters. That kind of thing happens when the pace is really slow-- everyone can keep up, they get stacked up, horses behind the pack either face ground loss or trouble. The random (luck) factor goes up exponentially in those situations. Rider\'s aggressiveness is rewarded.
Second-- in the Nearctic, a Euro won, the 4 I put up as a box ran 2-3-4-5, beating the other Euros. The filly that won was clearly a first lasix jump-up, since she was much slower in Europe than the other Euros, let alone the ones from here.
In the E. P. Taylor, only two were NOT from Europe. Miss Keller beat all but one of them.
In the International, as I said in ROTW, Al Khali was solid and Marsh Side probably wasn\'t going to run well. Those were the only ones with 2\'s or better, lots had around 3\'s. Once MS didn\'t run and Al Khali had all that trouble, anyone who could run around a 3 was a contender (and the winner, who was getting almost a point in weight,didn\'t even have to run that fast). Haven\'t done the figure yet, but the blanket finish would indicate the race went somewhere around a 3.
The only tip I can give you about first lasix is that horses who bleed often have erratic patterns, stop, hang, or are eased. The filly in the Nearctic had an eratic pattern, but even if you thought lasix would help it would be tough to give her a 5 point new top (around what she ran) in part because so few fillies run that fast. There are some situations where the better you are the less likely you are to have the winner. Good bets lose all the time. (Well, not ALL).
2000 Breeders Cup Turf Kalanisi
I had this horse that day. Mick Kanane was the rider I believe. Has was 9th on the rail the entire trip behind a slow pace. Then watch what happens! Green Silks in behind Fantastic Light. We ALL wish it worked out this good all the time but it does\'nt. And when it doesnt the name calling starts.......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2f8TOBwlfq8
BTW-Bailey said closers are at a BIG disadvantage on the CD Turf. I guess thats why Gary Stevens was on War Chant....;)
Silver:
I had a $100 double keying Tiznow with 3 in the BC Turf including Quiet Resolve who got nipped at 42-1. A friend at my house that day was screaming his lungs out for Kinane/Kalinisi. I threw him out of my house and he never got to see Tiznow\'s battle with Giants Causeway .Have not spoken to him since.
Bailey is correct....going long at CD favors up front runners. Not so at a mile.
Great trip of all time: Fraise up the rail in BC Turf at Gulfstream....\'94 I think!
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I\'m assuming your buddy bet Kalinisi??
P-Dub:
He had a $5 double with Giant Causeway. Chalk eater that he was/probably still is.
Maybe 2 of the more exciting races in BC history and perhaps the biggest chapter in my \"Woulda Coulda Shoulda\" life playing this incredible game.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I have a buddy just like him. Quick story:
We\'re at the Big Cap (a trip I plan every year for the past 20, which includes making all reservations and planning everything - car, hotel, box seats, flights, paying up front and getting money from the fellas later)
So its Saturday, he\'s taken a beating for a day and a half, and he decides to place a good sized wager on Yodeling Dan in a 1 1/2 mile turf race. He\'s something like 6/5.
I place a wager on a FG turf sprint, win bet/ex/tris, and get back to the box. I am watching the tv in the box as my horse draws away for the win and I hit everything. As I\'m cheering my horse home, the 6/5 shot at SA isn\'t looking good and I\'m told to keep quiet. Huh?? He says the box is for live racing, go upstairs if you want to root for a horse somewhere else.
YD runs 3rd. I tell him in my classic P-Dub way that I can watch the race in the box (throwing in the parts about 20 years, event planning, I didn\'t tell you to bet some crappy 6/5 shot, etc..). I added that instead of playing another chalk loser, he could have played the race I told him about but refused to bet. That prompted an Eff Off and him stomping out of the box upstairs. I couldn\'t stop laughing.
Only difference is he came back 30 minutes later.
Kinane was following Fantastic Light the entire trip. FL stayed inside down the stretch simply because he had a horse to his outside and could not get out. With 50 yds left the Jock is essentially standing up on the horse and full of run.
The horses outside Kinane began to fade as his began to kick and he suddenly found himself fanning out into a perfect running lane to take dead aim.
Not sure if this was the War Chant year or not. But I had Dansili in that race that.year and could not get to the outside and shot like a rocket through the entire field veering to the rail in the last 80 yds or so.
Even though War Chant ran clear on the outside down the stretch in the gallop out Dansili was 3 lengths clear of the field. They don\'t pay for the gallop out and with these races there really is NO \"tab him for next time\".
Pocket trips like Artie Schiller an Kip DeVille happen and wide trips like War Chant and Silic happen. I bet out on Silic and when you get paid you don\'t care how he got there. Just that he got there......
It\'s tough to maintain friendships at the track. This is an ultra competitiive game and most people have no clue how to act, especially when they\'re blowing.
Most if not all of my closest friends have never stepped foot into a racetrack.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Jerry,
Thanks for the insights.
I agree!!
My point on the Kalanisi trip of 2000 was, somewhat to defend some of the criticsm that Garcia was taking for his ride in the ROTW. Fantastic Light ended up dead while Kalanisi got lucky just after Durkin called him as \"being in a difficult spot\"
I do hope everyone can offer insights or experiences leading up to the Cup. This can only help all of us and its not exactly like there are millions of visitors to the Board. There are plenty of other sources of talking heads, scribes, tip sheets, etc, etc to confuse people.
Looking forward to sensible and intelligent conversation over the next 2.5 weeks.
Silver:
As previously mentioned, I will look for forwardly placed turfers going long on the CD turf. I agree with Bailey\'s comments regarding the CD bias goinglong. That being said, I will look for something stretching out of the First Lady (Keenland) to a 1 3/8 ths.
I do not agree that this idea fits with the BC Mile.
BC Classic looks chalky. Can anyone really imagine someone other than Blame, QR, or Zenyatta winning this race?
As far as the BC Sprint; IMO this one has one of the best chances of producing a nice payout in the win and or exacta pool. The Division is not strong and if they want to make Girolamo the favorite, be my guest.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Breeders Cup Turf at CD
Great Communicator-wired but it was a total bog
Bucks Boy-wired
Quiet Resolve-almost wired or thereabouts at 42-1
Miss Aledged I believe came from out of it. That I believe was also very soft turf
Part of Baileys point was in the Turf Sprint only going 5 on a 7/8ths course with a not so long stretch speed horses have an edge.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> BC Classic looks chalky. Can anyone really imagine
> someone other than Blame, QR, or Zenyatta winning
> this race?
JB--
If Haynesfield (already acclimating at CD) and First Dude both go, I think Looking at Lucky has a much better chance of winning than does QR.
Even though the top 4 should all be in an array between 2/1 and 5/1, the fact that the four of them are taking action should make this a nice conclusion to the Multiple Race Wagers.
Richie:
LAL is an interesting discussion. Will certainly be of value coming out of Prep in Indiana which will inevitably get the Randy Moss like commentary \"no horse has ever won the Classic prepping in Indiana.\"
You will also here Randy say numerous times...\"Trained by Bob Baffert.\"
Big move into a lively pace may set him up well. Won\'t be easy, but you may get better than 8-1.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B,
I think you are likely quite a bit off on your odds for Lookin at Lucky. The top books in London have him co-favored with Zenyatta. Half the price of Quality Road.
While I don\'t believe he will be half the price of Quality Road, I don\'t believe he will be 8-1. Maybe 5-1. Zenyatta 5-2, maybe the next 3 around 5-1.
Bailey was a little unsure on LAL. Thought in his last race he beat absolutely nothing, which he did, compared to what he is going to have to beat next out.
If this horse is 9-2 or so there is not a lot of value or premium in his price. Baffert no doubt will have ready to run the race of his life. Is that good enough is the question.
\"Thought in his last race he beat absolutely nothing, which he did, compared to what he is going to have to beat next out\"
Silver,
Re LAL,a fair statement which also applies to Quality Road and Zenyatta.
On the CLASSIC, genius arab connections withdraw Richards Kid to point for winter Campaign in the middle east, BRILLIANT!
Love Baffy but he\'s smoking some strong stuff lamenting that Richards Kid could have been named Champion Older Horse or maybe HOY.
Baffy also loses El Brujo Rojo,gone bad again.
Mike
Jimbo:
Selections made by the talking heads at TVG, ESPN, etc will not include LAL. Same theory for the newspaper guys..
IMO, a ton of non-regulars\' money shows up on days like this.
Opinions on others in the Classic such as Fly Down or First Dude. Are we still thinking that the 3yo crop is below par?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B,
We will have to see what final odds are, but I believe LAL will be 5-1ish. I strongly doubt the horse is 8-1.
I wouldn\'t group Fly Down and First Dude together because IMO, they are very different. First Dude is a one-paced horse whose best race is not competitive (unless the Penn Derby figures are much faster than expected). He has a flat line at best and to me is a strange horse in the way he gets easily passed and then seems to fight back a bit after the race is over. I would have found him interesting in the BC Marathon.
Fly Down, on the other hand, has some upside and is somebody that will be on my spread pick-4 tickets. His Travers got a very good figure, although I have to admit I have trouble swallowing the negative 4. On the other hand, he is a horse that can run very fast, figures to benefit from the 1 1/4 and I will take the glass \"half full\" approach that his not changing leads is a sign of maturity issues and not physical issues. As such, I can view him as a horse with a very fast top, who will get some weight as a 3-year old, has a running style that may benefit from what looks like a fast pace in the Classic, has some upside and will be 20-1ish. In that case, he is a \"use\" for me.
Jim
Buck\'s Boy would get my vote for best BC trip ever and it\'s a textbook illustration of a few TG principles, especially the importance of ground loss. Those who insist that ground loss doesn\'t matter should watch this race, around three turns. I forget the year. HP
1998 at CD. Third leg of a huge pick 3 for me, Da Hoss was the first leg, 2x2x1 to Bucks Boy.
For whatever reason I\'ve done very well in BC\'s at CD. Santa Anita not so much.
Yes. I remember that day. I liked Hawksley Hill over Da Hoss. Did not believe in the Dickinson miracle and did not have the exacta. I do remember a certain figure maker making some comments after watching the interview with Michael on TV. LOL HP
Was Escena nosing Banshee Breeze the middle leg of that one? I do remember it was suckling pig and good red all around, compliments of you, thanks to that P3. Good times!
Magicnight that may have been.
I will say this about Escena that yr. She may have been one of the few \"clean\" winners that yr in 1998. I believe even Andy Beyer wrote an article implying as much.
There was ZERO TESTING or CONTROLS back then. Almost every winning trainer had previously had some sort PRIOR POSITIVE VIOLATION on his record. Except maybe Bob Baffert trainer of Silverbulletday.
Clenbuterol, Milkshakes....to say it was the Wild West is an understatment. More like Panic in Needle Park........
Magic-- Can\'t believe that was 12 years ago. And a certain lady\'s one-liner that night-- which I won\'t repeat here-- may still be the best off the cuff remark I have ever heard.
HP-- Dickinson\'s crap was after the 96 BC Mile at Woodbine. I was just thinking about that, and I\'m still pissed. But talk about amazing trips-- Da Hoss started from the rail, and had the speed to take advantage of it. In the paddock Michael told Stevens to take back. Stevens didn\'t like it, and said (according to a good friend of mine who was with the Prestons that day) \"I\'m not taking responsibility for this\".
Anyway, gate opens, Gary takes him back to last or close to it. Astoundingly, nobody shuts the rail off. DH has clear sailing up the rail the entire backstretch and turn.
Then, unfortunately, someone stuck a microphone in Michael\'s face...
That was no lady ....
Yes...that is getting through to my memory bank now. I remember watching it and thinking \"if you don\'t have any class when you win, it\'s just not in you.\" You may have phrased it differently. LMAO. HP
Silver, you don\'t think Awesome Again won the Classic clean???
What did he say??
She, not he. Condensed version-- there was a certain British guy hanging out with us who had a well earned reputation as a womanizer (ahem), and not a very discriminating one. He had already had a busy weekend by the time we got to Saturday night, where I was celebrating Da Hoss\' victory and a very succesful day of betting by taking a few friends out for dinner.
Anyway, the waitress came to tell us the specials. One was suckling pig, which caught our British friend\'s attention. The waitress, with a Southern accent, asked \"Have you tried our Kentucky suckling pigs\"? At which point a certain lady at the table-- who had just met him that weekend-- said, \"Oh, he\'s tried a few of your pigs, all right\".
Awesome Again may have been clean. He had beaten Silver Charm earlier in the year in the Foster when he was receiving 13 lbs. He won the Whitney(?) and prepped at Hawthorne. He was a good horse.
Pat Byrne also won 13 races in a row at CD the year before when he used Steve Allday as his Vet. Byrne had also been spotted personally medicating a horse (Nani\'s Rose) at Saratoga only a few hours before the horse was scheduled to run in a Stakes race.
I dont know if the horse was clean or Ben Johnson\'ed. I just know that there was a culture of cheats back then. Noel Hickey was busted multiple times. I beleive Hickey served a suspension for about 60 days that very year Bucks Boy won. As I said there were NO controls at CD or by the Breeders Cup back then.
These stories sound like a candidate for \"The Greatest Breeders Cup Trip Ever\"!
Please post the Video......
Say what you will about this year\'s crop of 3-year olds but 3-year olds have won the Classic 9 times in the past 26 winners. Oh and no horse older then 5 has ever won the race, not even the great Cigar. Just saying.
And no female had ever won the Classic, until Zenyatta came along.
I\'m just saying...
Peace out
Lets hope we get a throw down finish like these two. This first one is like a Quarter Horse finish and in the other Durkins final call gets me trembling a little.......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfOng-jaIh0&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRrndqe-pbM&feature=related
They just showed this one on TVG. What an effort by Judge Angelucci.
Alysheba and Chris Mcarron who IMO was the greatest Classic rider of all time.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I though P Dub was asking what did Dickinson say when the microphone was put in front of him. That is what i am curious about.
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> I though P Dub was asking what did Dickinson say
> when the microphone was put in front of him. That
> is what i am curious about.
You\'re right, I was referring to Dickinson.
Glad JB told the other story, what a classic response.
I agree that Chris McCarron was one of the great money riders (Angel Cordero, too). Chris won the Travers just a few days after his mother died, in a thrilling stretch duel nosing out the favorite, Behrens. After the race, we ran into him at an Italian restaurant where he was celebrating with his family. As he walked past our table and we offerred congratulations, he chatted with us for several minutes. Great Guy!
My vote for greatest BC race was the inaugural classic. Owners Allen and Crovo paid $180,000 to supplement Wild Again. They stiffed (or prepped) him in a 7f race in Northern California and got their price in the BC at 30-1. Went to Vegas and bet him HUGE-had to hide in the men\'s room first waiting for the photo, then surviving the inquiry!
P-Dub - This thread got dispersed a bit...I am assuming you are asking what Dickinson said?
I don\'t remember his exact words but he\'s on TV and as he\'s thanking everybody he gets to the owners saying something like he was happy they listened to his advice on where and when to run/prep the horse as opposed to \"other advisors\"...which was a reference to TGJB, since in the months leading up to the BC that year there was some disagreement about how to prep Da Hoss.
So this is what he said instead of just throwing a nice \"shout out\" to Thoro-Graph, without whom he would not have had a horse to train. Couldn\'t even muster an easygoing \"thank you.\" It was an additional platform for him to advance his argument and his \"lone, renegade genius\" status. Awful. HP
Dead on, except I think he sarcastically referred to me as their \"very smart advisor\".
Yes. Saracastic is right, his tone was uber-wiseass as only the Brits can do it. The most graceless \"winner\" I\'ve ever seen...to this day. HP
Zenyatta wasn\'t at all hard to believe to me. That\'s because I saw Dulcia a mare win the National Thoroughbred Championship back in the late 70\'s.