1st race .... Love 9 thankfulness fastest horse in the race. nice line shortening up and adding blinkers. on neg side only 3 weeks rest into the race and lukas. still at 6-1 i\'ll make a nice win bet and use 1 and 10 in double
2nd race ..... tri box 1,3,4,10. 1 kesagami is interesting horse has run 7\'s three last races.A repeat gets the moneyand gets 7 pounds from the field. at 8-1 he is the value, but don\'t like the rail going 6 1/2 furlongs. hancho looks like the horse to beat
5th race.... Successful dan appears to be the one to beat. I like him with the 7 wealth to me. Wealth to me is a talented 3 year old tapit. good spacing (5 weeks into the race) just a point slower than the fastest and 30-1. Not crazy about greta. tri box 1,7,8,9 and exacta box 7,9
6th race is a puzzle will atta boy roy transfer his form to the turf. If so he can win this at 10-1
7th race ... looks like a cold exacta informed decision and dubai majesty. Don\'t thing chamapgne d\' oro like the poly and needs more distance.
9th race tri box 4,8,9,10 all good number power and nice odds on each. the favorite is 3 points slower than the above.
good luck to all . comments welcomed
On the race of the week (aka 7th race) --
First off, kudos to TG for an awesome race of the week....no matter what happens, I love races like this one and I think it was a great choice.
As to the original poster\'s picks, while Informed Decision and Dubai Majesty could both easily be there, there is a lot more to the race besides them.
First off, agree that Champagne D\'Oro and Sweet August Moon are tosses, and that throws some real equity into hitting the race. There are some nice prices that can run in the exotic tickets or even spoil that Exacta and it would be a shame to correctly toss CDO and SAM and then not hit the race because a big price that is haveable breaks up your ticket.
Two horses that I will not let beat me in this race are Dr. Zic and Waccamaw --
Dr. Zic has the speed to wire this field (and already has a wire job Grade 1 victory over this strip)......even if Dr. Zic is slightly slower than the top horses, Dr. Zic is in my opinion more likely to run her number which means the top two will HAVE to run better (especially taking into consideration ground loss) to beat her. While they might do that, I tend to agree with the ROTW analysis that Informed Decision may or may not fire (and I put Dubai Majesty in the same boat with Informed Decision...she might not fire also (n.b., she does not have her usual good figs on this Keeneland surface)....but she is a much more generous price than Informed Decision and probably a more solid chance to run her number than ID). If either one or the other of ID or DM do not run their fig, then original poster\'s exacta is out the window and since there are legit horses at a price who can be there if and when that happens, it is still a good opp.
As to Waccamaw, 30-1 just about says it all. She is not that far behind these to justify a price like that and since there is a really good chance she beats the tosses described above, it would be the foolish to leave her off Superfecta tickets.
Having said all this, they will probably be nowhere, but this is the type of race where, even if i get beat by my tosses, I still love having played it because I feel I have a good angle on some value and plays like this have to work out over time.
race 6 ... never dreamed atta boy would take that kind of money. I\'ll take ex box 4,6,9. who would have thought you could get 7-1 on silver timber and 4-1 on chamberlain bridge