Terrific betting race with outside posts less of a negative while inside may be more of an issue.
The Met Mile of turf racing where route stalkers may serve you better than a stretch out sprinter as one mile chute almost always guarantees a demanding pace.
Would love a TG analysis on this one.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
It came up extremely complicated, not good for what we do with ROTW-- unlikely.
How about the Garden City at Belmont - look any better?
It\'s okay, but I did a Woodbine 2yo turf stake-- it\'s a chance to show how to use the sire profiles.
Check the Label;[morning line 5 – 2]. Carries high weight of 120 pounds (from 2 to 4 to all). Comes off three straight wins (not sure what he has beaten) (all 5s) Closer style seems inconsistent with the current basis of the track. Another gate to wire long shot today in the only turf race.
Gitchee Goomie;[morning line 15 -1]. Closing style like the inside horse.8s and 9s seems too slow for this group. Only 1 career win and 3 seconds.
Persuading;[morning line 20 – 1]. Races close to the pace and will need to contend with Queen of the Creek on the front end. Last out was the first on turf. Won and ran an 8 and has run 7s in the past so could move forward again.
Queen of the Creek;[morning line 3 -1]. Good solid filly who races on (needs) the front end. Big number (4) in last coming back quick 15 days (?). Will she react, if not given the bias of the course and her trip she should win.
No Explaining;[morning line 6 – 1] Big close to run third on 7/28 got a better number running against a slow pace at Woodbine to run third (@ 3-2) not as visually impressive. Gets in at 116 pounds. Trainer is 3 for 9 (8 ITM) shipping top quality turf runners (particularly fillies) from Canada to New York over the last 6 months.
Negligee;[morning line 6 – 1]. Coming off long (110 day) layoff, has been training up to this one very well but Terranova weak in this category. Mile and an eighth in grade one off a series of 5 furlong works looks like a tough order. She is coming off a nice 6 in last but my money says she\'ll be short. Look forward to the QE II in 28 days.
Snow Top Mountain;[morning line 5 -1]. A confirmed closer will be running with Check the Label et al, has nice numbers and pattern 5/6/5 and has never been worse than second in career but on the turf has 1 win 4 seconds in 5 starts. Underneath in exactas.
Triple Cream;[morning line 6 – 1] Forget the last (washed off the turf) prior to that 8s 9s look too slow.
Value in the race lies with No Explaining comes off a TG top, has a 4 pound weight advantage to the favorite (worth about 1.5 lengths at this distance) and a win at this distance on a good turf course. At a price Persuading should be close to the pace and may be able to withstand Check the Label and Snow Top Mountain who will be closing fastest.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Terrific betting race with outside posts less of a
> negative while inside may be more of an issue.
I agree. I think the winner comes from one of the three outermost posts:
11 - The Usual Q.T. has a solid line with great spacing. Doubt that he will be overbet in this big field. High weight is only a mild concern -- he\'s carried it comfortably before.
12 - Is Famous Name getting enough of a weight break here? Minus 14 lbs. = 3 TG points which makes this horse one of the fastest in here, and he\'s getting Lasix for the first time, BUT: he just ran the \"0\" and the \"2\" in his last 2 race, which makes this race the \"X\". Less than two weeks acclimation after a Sept. 4 race in Dublin...
(This is the kind of horse that will leave you wandering down the street, waving your arms and talking to yourself. Bet him and he pukes, and you are stupid, stupid, stupid for using an obvious Euro-bouncer; leave him out and he wins, and you ask why bother using TG if you are going to ignore a first-time-N.A. turfer from Europe getting a ton of weight and first sauce, that more than fits the race and is a price.)
13 - Grand Adventure\'s sheet is even better looking than The Usual Q.T.\'s. Ultra-consistent this year, great race spacing and perfectly managed, next step would seem to be the BC is he does well here.
Figure out a way to get Goldberg\'s horse (5 - Straight Story, hoping for stalk instead of dead send) into the mix, and you might catch a nice exacta.
Good luck with this race. Ultra-tough.
Terrific job on the ROTW...Thanks!
Rick:
Time to get back to our Goldberg discussion.
Again, I don\'t think he\'s shady....I was never a Strike a Deal fan. However Straight Story is a different \"story.\"
I\'m not in agreement with you on strategy. Conditioned in last, I look for him to be right on the pace tomorrow similar to his Belmont races early this year. Not sure if he can sit and pounce....we\'ll see. Not picked or mentioned in DRF, looks 12-1 or better.
Use with outside ones you mentioned.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Rick:
I can tell you with confidence that was the last Alan Goldberg horse I will ever play.
Horse does not want to be rated. Send him, strangle him, please strangle me for ever thinking this clown could win a race like this.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Rick,
What makes you think FAmous Name is getting 14 pounds? You have to remember that the figure he got in has last race is ALREADY factored for the heavy weight he carried. You can\'t factor it again. He was getting 5 pounds here from the highweights (119 vs 124)
Looks like he bounced despite getting lasix for the first time and Court Vision actually ran back to one of his 0 type races.
the only reason I drop the winner is Albarado...no other reason at all. We all have jocks that influence the bet...this guy kills me like no other person on earth. At 3/5 or 4/5 he\'s a certain bet against...7/1 or thereabouts...I always get my ass kicked...who\'s your killer?
Shanahan,
I think they are all killers for me. I think I only have a lifetime positive ROI with only one Jockey - Kent Desmormeaux. ONly because my two biggest wins ever were keyed by him winning.
Albarado rode Court Vision well today. I have chased this horse FOREVER as he seemingly always has figures that make him a strong contender, but doesn\'t seem to have the killer instinct.
If they rest him up for the BC, he might have a shot in the Mile, unless of course Goldikova comes, in which case he will have to settle for finishing underneath...
My killer was Eddie D back in the day. I was alive for $286K in a Santa Anita Pick 6 back in the 90s and was leading at the 1/8th pole. I got \"Eddie D\'d\" a bunch but none more painful than that. I too have had good luck with Desormeaux but my all time \"score\" jock, my go-to-guy was always Gary Stevens.
I do think The UQT wins the WO Mile yesterday if Victor was more patient and waited a bit longer
Jim, Goldikova will be tough to beat on firm ground, but she would be vulnerable in boggy conditions.
And the Mile may come up very tough. Gio Ponti is apparently headed for either the Classic or the Mile but I\'d bet he winds up in the Mile. Add Sidney\'s Candy and maybe even Paddy O\'Prado and - if it comes up soft - you might be looking at a very tough race.