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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: drbillym on September 05, 2010, 07:22:28 AM

Title: Saratoga today
Post by: drbillym on September 05, 2010, 07:22:28 AM
Sorry to see meet ending, a few thoughts on today\'s card:
Race 1:  lots of speed might set it up for closers-will box Summer Patriot and Conservative in the exacta, and use them in doubles with Sortliege in the 2nd-Kimmel had a bad meet but this one looks ready to wire the field.  And in the 11th, ya know Maker wants to win first off a claim from Dutrow and Atlantic Beauty looks like a wire to wire winner.  Thoughts anyone?
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: richiebee on September 05, 2010, 08:26:27 AM
I took a big stand against Atlantic Beauty last time at even money, a 150K
yearling dropping from MSW to 25 claimers. Note the DRF comment was \"lugged out,
bore out\"

Maker very good off the claim for Ken and Sarah, but what is his strike rate when
he waits out the \"jail\" term and runs back for the price which the horse was
claimed for?

My \"stab\" in this race will be Seattle Dynasty, who put in a career best effort 2
weeks ago adding blinkers, same distance, same level, and gets a huge rider
switch from Studart to Castellano.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: jack72906 on September 05, 2010, 08:53:47 AM
This last race today has ugly written all over it. Richie, your \"stab\" will be the same one I\'m taking along with a few others in the multi race plays. Tough to bet against Castellano right now. When he gets the lead in these cheap races he usually finishes. There are a few speedballs here though.

For AB the comments should have read \"zigzagging\". She was all over the place in the final furlong, but she did have a decent :48 half(4/32) recently, gets LeParoux, and Maker is 44% first after claim, maiden, 3yo.

Good luck with this one. I think I\'ll end up using about 7 in this race.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: nyc1347 on September 05, 2010, 09:58:16 AM
Race 4 -   loving the BOMB Shipping News!  Mena should get a great set up here!
Title: Re: Saratoga today - BIAS
Post by: nyc1347 on September 05, 2010, 10:04:02 AM
woooooooooooooow thats a redic TURF BIAS!!!!   =O
Title: Re: Saratoga today - BIAS
Post by: drbillym on September 05, 2010, 10:11:40 AM
yes, stupid of me to go against it.  Won\'t make that mistake again.
Title: Re: Saratoga today - BIAS
Post by: P-Dub on September 05, 2010, 10:15:33 AM
nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> woooooooooooooow thats a redic TURF BIAS!!!!   =O


Maybe, maybe not.  That horse was projected to be out front and held his speed.

SAR 11 -  I like a couple longshots: #3 Lady Symphony and #2 Swales Park, and agree that the #5 Atlantic Beauty will be tough on the lead.
Title: Re: Saratoga today - BIAS
Post by: nyc1347 on September 05, 2010, 10:26:56 AM
hey guys just a little angle/opinion here.. i had aprilmayjune and posted my opinion several racing days ago at saratoga.  that horse was 5 to 1 and go bet down to 2 to 1 and did NOTHING at all.  horses that have fired good and came out bad the next time havent we seen OTHER horses in that same race last out do bad?   such as the rachel alexandra situation with her at monmouth and then that second place horse.. both ran bad next out.. well in this last race at saratoga aprilmayjune ran terrible recently.. atlantic beauty and lady symphony came out of that same race.  seems it be more fitting for chad brown and pletcher to run 1-2 to cap off the meet how they both started it.  im staying far away from this race.. be careful and good luck!
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: Leamas57 on September 05, 2010, 10:28:28 AM
Texas Aggie might have trouble with Sortilege (8).  We\'ll know in two minutes.

Leamas.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: nyc1347 on September 05, 2010, 11:43:04 AM
Race 4 - loving the BOMB Shipping News! Mena should get a great set up here!



OMFG!!!! MY HEART IS POUNDING OUT OF MY CHEST!!!!!! WHATS THIS GONNA PAY?!?!! =D!!! HOPE YOU ALL HAD IT!! perfect spot for a bunch of \"0 for\'s\" and first time lasix!!!!!! =O !!
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: Leamas57 on September 05, 2010, 11:59:51 AM
Nice hit--for show if I am guessing what you did.

Leamas.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: nyc1347 on September 05, 2010, 12:04:54 PM
u kno it!  =)  thank you!  in the midst of all that i accidently deleted my post..  i have ..

Race 7 -  sneaky girl

Race 10 - Le Mi Geaux

and i am adding Race 6 -  Smart Farming along with the ROTW obviously with Devon Rock..  

GOODL LUCK!
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: drbillym on September 05, 2010, 12:23:53 PM
Like your chat room idea.  Will use Smart Farming second to lead pipe cinch Chardonniere.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: Rick B. on September 05, 2010, 12:25:42 PM
Great call *beforehand*, and nice hit!

Hope you took the \"full swing\" at it.

(Even though I know better, I *still* puss out and cut my bet down when the tote doesn\'t line up with my numbers; worst betting mistake that can be made, IMO.)
Title: Re: Saratoga today - drbilly
Post by: nyc1347 on September 05, 2010, 12:26:24 PM
BE CAREFUL!!!!  garret gomez has SUUUUUUUUCKED and has been ICE COLD ON THE TURF especially recently!!!!!!
Title: Re: Saratoga today - drbilly
Post by: drbillym on September 05, 2010, 12:40:27 PM
will put your horse on top, too, nyc.  enjoying the chatting today-wish I had made the TGJB seminar-rick b.-playing Miss Nepal at Mth?
Title: Re: Saratoga today - drbilly
Post by: Rick B. on September 05, 2010, 12:50:11 PM
Think I\'ll watch. 3-1 is kind of short, and the jock...who?
 
There will be a ton of $8.00 horses at Del Mar later this afternoon,
Title: Re: Saratoga today - drbilly
Post by: Rick B. on September 05, 2010, 12:54:55 PM
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...and the jock...who?

What a shitty ride on Miss Nepal.

Lesson reaffirmed: the money I don\'t piss away is just as green as the money I win.
Title: Re: Saratoga today - drbilly
Post by: drbillym on September 05, 2010, 01:21:39 PM
Yeah, poor ride, lost momentum.  Now I need Barclay to bail me out.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: richiebee on September 05, 2010, 05:04:43 PM
You think you accidentally deleted your post, but it is still up on my screen.

In the first race, you saw \"nothing wrong with Romp\"

Romp beat only the ambulance home.

In the second race you said \"looks chalky to me, Texas Aggie should have no
issues with these\"

Texas Aggie was beaten 12 or so lengths in 7th. She did beat the last place
finisher by 8 lengths however.

In the fourth race, your big score, you say, kinda like Dr Strangelove, that
you were \"loving the Bomb\". My take on this is that after nearly two weeks of
posting losers who didn\'t even hit the board, you got to the point where you have
to bet almost any horse who goes off at odds of in excess of 30/1 to replenish
your bankroll.

You say you want to open a \"chat room\" where TG issues could be discussed. What
TG methodology was utilized in this selection-- the horse was eased and beaten 35
lengths in his two starts. Yes I understand first Lasix and I have been betting
Roy Lerman for about 20 years.

On to the seventh race where you tabbed RUUUUUUUUDY, who ran FOUUUUUUUUURTH. If
you were betting this one to show, what did you expect to collect with the
likelihood that Ash Zee, one of the shortest prices at the meet, would have to be
in the top 3?

On to the feature where Le Mi Geaux, your best bet of the day,  ran a no factor,
no speed, no close, no threat fifth. You spouted some gibberish about the Dutrow
Magic Potion. I must have missed the \"DMP\" symbol. I\'ll let you past post here--
what in the TGs made this filly a standout selection in this field? The extra
rest? (BTW the fillies coming back off the shortest rest ran 1-2).

So let all the NYC fan club members excoriate me for criticizing him. Yes, I
realize you are all members of the \"Millennial\" generation, the generation where
people are awarded for merely participating as opposed to actually succeeding.

I think I got one more post in me before serious racing resumes in October....

Note to the TG webmeister/IT Dept. Its the damnedest thing. I have the full text
of NYC\'s post of 9/5/10 at 12:58 PM (where he posted one bomb show horse and four
other runners who were beaten so badly they may soon be seen on the side of a
milk carton), but when I select \"quote this message\" I only get the text
pertaining to the winning wager. Revisionist History-- what else to expect where
NYC is involved?
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: jbelfior on September 05, 2010, 05:38:08 PM
Hey Richie:

Better watch those \"millenials.\" They\'re capable of anything including getting an \"Obomination\" elected.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: Rick B. on September 05, 2010, 06:11:05 PM
I declare both nyc1347 and richiebee wrong here.

* nyc1347: no altering posts to make your results look better. BAD Internet form, and will result in you being treated as a forum pariah.

* richiebee: nyc\'s foul notwithstanding, his friends and foes would likely agree that the bomb he got home more than amply compensated for his losers; it\'s no different than, say, Jason L. on his radio program mentioning a \"cold $137 double\" the TG Analysis had, while not mentioning that the rest of the selections stunk. Be fair -- he DID post the winner in advance this time.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: richiebee on September 05, 2010, 06:33:55 PM
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I declare both nyc1347 and richiebee wrong here.
>
> * nyc1347: no altering posts to make your results
> look better. BAD Internet form, and will result in
> you being treated as a forum pariah.
>
> * richiebee: nyc\'s foul notwithstanding, his
> friends and foes would likely agree that the bomb
> he got home more than amply compensated for his
> losers; it\'s no different than, say, Jason L. on
> his radio program mentioning a \"cold $137 double\"
> the TG Analysis had, while not mentioning that the
> rest of the selections stunk. Be fair -- he DID
> post the winner in advance this time.

Rick:

Sorry if I offended anyone\'s sensibilities.

I gave credit to NYC for his big mutuel. I also asked the person who has
absolutely dominated this board with mostly infantile drivel, who has the
chutzpah to suggest that there be a chat room for TG users, to explain the
TG methodology behind his selection of Shipping News, eased and beaten 35
lengths in 2 lifetime starts.

I had the decency not to touch NYC\'s ROTW analysis, which he probably posted
5 minutes after the ROTW was released. Get a life, NYC!! Read a book. Watch
a movie (the documentary about Pat Tillman is supposed to be tremendous).

This does not count as my last post of September; I have a little work to do on
it. NYC if you have figured out how to delete posts, maybe you should start with
August 15.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: Rick B. on September 05, 2010, 06:45:09 PM
richiebee Wrote:
> Rick:
>
> Sorry if I offended anyone\'s sensibilities.
>
> I gave credit to NYC for his big mutuel.

Then I simply missed it. Only asking for fairness...not defending nyc, nor repudiating any of your other complaints about the guy\'s posts.

I\'m not the \"forum police\" anyway, so I think I\'ll take my own favorite piece of advice and STFU.

Sorry for the oversight!
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: miff on September 06, 2010, 06:35:25 AM
\"Note to the TG webmeister/IT Dept. Its the damnedest thing. I have the full text
of NYC\'s post of 9/5/10 at 12:58 PM (where he posted one bomb show horse and four
other runners who were beaten so badly they may soon be seen on the side of a
milk carton), but when I select \"quote this message\" I only get the text
pertaining to the winning wager. Revisionist History-- what else to expect where
NYC is involved?\"

Bee,

....happened to notice the same thing. NYC a \'ficticious\' poster,a Kool Aid drinking plant????

As to your comments re the sudden change in the NYC methodology for the \'rest\' guru, noted the same thing.Hmmmm, strange stuff.Suggest TG get the incomparable Chief Inspector Clouseau on the case.


Mike
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: colt on September 06, 2010, 07:01:04 AM
I am sure there is a plausible explanation coming...it will go something like this...\"I only took a stab on the others, but I BET A TON on the BOMB\"....
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: kensharkey on September 06, 2010, 07:46:08 AM
good point. he started out with only 4000 show bets, now hes playing win and others......
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: jimbo66 on September 06, 2010, 09:35:33 AM
If NYC1347 is betting 4k on anything, I am a monkey\'s uncle.

People betting real money are motivated by winning, not past-posting phony wins, claiming to have backed off losing picks and dislocating their shoulder by patting himself on the back.........

This isn\'t a cheapshot, because I wish I was younger, but over-under on NYC\'s age is 23.5 and I am taking the \"under\".........  2nd year college student?
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: richiebee on September 06, 2010, 04:32:41 PM
Jimbo:

I take this to mean I wont be \"seeing\" you in the chat room.

I had a quiet night at work last night, and rather than handicap a card I had no
interest in playing (read: Ms. Richiebee made my plans for the day) I went through
NYC\'s pre posted selections starting with his August 14 selection of Grand
Couturier in the Sword Dancer and ending with his best bet of the day for Sunday,
Le Mi Geaux in the Spinaway. To prove that I am nothing if not merciful, I did
not include in the tabulation the two off the board selections in todays 2nd and
4th races at the Spa.

By my estimation NYC pre-posted 22 selections during that time at 3 tracks:
Arlington, Del Mar and Saratoga. Since NYC is rather secretive and elusive (pre
race) about his betting strategy, I have taken the liberty of assuming NYC
wagered 4K on each of these 22 selections for an investment of 88K.

From his 22 posted selections/show wagers, four (4) of his selections finished in
the top 3:

Workin for Hops (Secretariat at Arlington) (2.40)  total  4.8K
Dyanaslew in the Ballston Spa at Saratoga (6.60)   total 13.2K
Rigoletto in the Debutante at Del Mar (9.20)       total 18.4K
Shipping News Race 4 Sara 9/5 (22.60)              total 45.2K

Total return on cashed show wagers                     81.6K
Net loss on show wagers                                (6.4K)

Back out Shipping News from the equation and the picture is quite dismal.

And query whether the show wager on SN was 4K given that at that point (just
based on the 22 wager sample) NYC was more than 22K in arrears.

I do not have much experience with show wagering, but a strike rate of just over
18% is not overly impressive for one who fancies himself a master of said wager.

Thats all for me until serious racing starts again in October, though I might
make an appearance at Monmouth -- September has always been one of my favorite
months to hang at the Shore for various reasons.

Remember to have your pets spayed and neutered.

Goodnight John Boy.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: nyc1347 on September 06, 2010, 08:00:39 PM
Richibee your analysis is completely off as well as the amounts.  What about Blind Luck at $3.60?  or Crowded House $6.60?  those are just 2 of many wagers i loaded up on that made up for losses i took stabs on.  Its not logical to think i would put 4k on EVERY race.  My load up races with the Blind Lucks or random value stabs are much higher (4 times or so) my average show wager.  Even shipping news was an average wager as that wouldnt be logical to load up on either.

You are also assuming that I actually played every wager I posted.  There are situations where i decide to stay away for many reasons including how a track plays out for the day, scratches, a horse being wagered down, etc.  Nothing is consistent with this game and I try to be as consistent as possible with show wagers but when i seek value in this game I even turn to win and/or exactas at times where I see overlays such as Boys at Toscanova today.  %95 of the wagers I do are show wagers but in order to make money in this game the approach  has to be flexible.  

I think im going to start doing more analysis on here and in the chat room now rather than hiding my ways so i can open up and share my ideas completely rather than just opinion.  Maybe then people can have an idea where I am coming from and what my wagers are about.  Il be around ttyl
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: richiebee on September 07, 2010, 12:05:29 AM
nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richibee your analysis is completely off as well
> as the amounts.  What about Blind Luck at $3.60?
> or Crowded House $6.60?  those are just 2 of many
> wagers i loaded up on that made up for losses i
> took stabs on.  Its not logical to think i would
> put 4k on EVERY race.  My load up races with the
> Blind Lucks or random value stabs are much higher
> (4 times or so) my average show wager.  Even
> shipping news was an average wager as that wouldnt
> be logical to load up on either.
>
> You are also assuming that I actually played every
> wager I posted.  There are situations where i
> decide to stay away for many reasons including how
> a track plays out for the day, scratches, a horse
> being wagered down, etc.  Nothing is consistent
> with this game and I try to be as consistent as
> possible with show wagers but when i seek value in
> this game I even turn to win and/or exactas at
> times where I see overlays such as Boys at
> Toscanova today.  %95 of the wagers I do are show
> wagers but in order to make money in this game the
> approach  has to be flexible.  

NYC: Back in the 1970s a couple of young kids, maybe 7 and 9 years old, sold
a tout sheet called \"Kids Picks\" for $1 near the Clubhouse entrance at Saratoga.
Even though my feeling was these two kids were being exploited by their dad, they
seemed to be having fun so I used to buy the sheet, which was crudely hand
lettered, every day.

My point in bringing this up is to say that why spend $20 - $100 per day on a
product like ThoroGraph to come up with horses like Blind Luck (in a 6 runner
field) or the $3.10 \"overlay\" Boys at Toscanova, when there\'s a good chance I
could have gotten those selections from a 7 year old kid for $1?

I have had a gut feeling ever since you began posting this past winter. That gut
feeling is that you want some recognition for your handicapping efforts, maybe to
one day have people pay you for your opinion much the way we pay JB and
the Thorogang for their opinions and data. Maybe you even have it in your mind to
create a product which people will one day pay you for. You could call it \"Show-
Nuff\" or \"Just for Show\". Possibly your chat endeavor will be the jumping off
point for a venture such as this. (I personally like \"Showgozin\", because it fits
in with my conspiracy theory that you have been planted here by the evil East
Village Empire in order to dumb down the TG product and create havoc on the TG
board)(You also may have been planted as revenge for JB dumping the Cube on the
Raggies).

Possibly the best manner in which to assemble a following would be to win a couple
of high profile handicapping contests or maybe take down a couple of mega Pick 6
pots; to achieve either of these objectives you are probably going to have to
rethink that \"95% show wager\" strategy and play with some serious big dogs in the
win pool.

As to my analysis of your selections, I will gladly add Blind Luck and Crowded
House to your accomplishments. I will also add the \"overlaid\" Boys at Toscanova
(very very surprised that Tricky plans to train this one up to the BC Juvie) and
the two off the board selections from todays card. Forgetting about how much you
bet or what pool you wagered in, you basically made 27 selections which produced
3 winners -- Dynaslew, Blind Luck and the \"overlaid\" Boys at Toscanova. Two of
the winners were rather short priced. I know you can do better than this. Hell,
give a chimpanzee a program and a magic marker...I won\'t go there.  


 
> I think im going to start doing more analysis on
> here and in the chat room now rather than hiding
> my ways so i can open up and share my ideas
> completely rather than just opinion.  Maybe then
> people can have an idea where I am coming from and
> what my wagers are about.  Il be around ttyl

This last paragraph confirms my gut feeling. Take some advice from an older man,
a man much too old to know what \"ttyl\" means; that advice is to get a map of the
Universe and try to locate yourself. The result might surprise you.

NYC I broke a promise to myself, my fellow posters, the lecherous Bob Barker
and the entire Walton family to disappear for 3 weeks. I thought I owed you a
response, but now its gotta go, love ya, bye bye.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: TGJB on September 07, 2010, 08:28:24 AM
Richie-- that one is a classic. I like Show-Nuff, myself.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: nyc1347 on September 07, 2010, 11:22:25 AM
> NYC: Back in the 1970s a couple of young kids,
> maybe 7 and 9 years old, sold
> a tout sheet called \"Kids Picks\" for $1 near the
> Clubhouse entrance at Saratoga.
> Even though my feeling was these two kids were
> being exploited by their dad, they
> seemed to be having fun so I used to buy the
> sheet, which was crudely hand
> lettered, every day.
>
> My point in bringing this up is to say that why
> spend $20 - $100 per day on a
> product like ThoroGraph to come up with horses
> like Blind Luck (in a 6 runner
> field) or the $3.10 \"overlay\" Boys at Toscanova,
> when there\'s a good chance I
> could have gotten those selections from a 7 year
> old kid for $1?
>



Richiebeeeeee

hahahaha loved the post!  ur too much.  lets be realistic here.  every pool is seperate from each other.  im a HUGE fish BUT its in a small pond (show pool). all your posts about me seem to try to slap some sense into my brain but  i have something going on here that has been working and will continue to do it as long as i am making profit... isnt that what this is all about?  Im OK with wagering 5k to make $2500 on something that is %80 on paper.. you are not ok with that so we have to just agree to disagree.  

ANYONE can pick numbers out of their heads but there is much more to making money.  Even if I use the thorographs and come up with a 12/1 ML that doesnt mean the horse will be value.  The public determines that and I take advantage of that with my wagers.  That 12/1 could be wagered down to one of the favorites... hell if i kno until i see the money in the pools for that given race.  Once agan the money i wager is NOT going into the betting pools.  You dont seem to understand that I am able to take advantage of track payouts for something that would be much less in person and you arent considering that gap... as well as a %3 rebate on overall wagers most of the time.  Either way we select its a true grind but neither is right or wrong.

> I have had a gut feeling ever since you began
> posting this past winter. That gut
> feeling is that you want some recognition for your
> handicapping efforts, maybe to
> one day have people pay you for your opinion much
> the way we pay JB and
> the Thorogang for their opinions and data. Maybe
> you even have it in your mind to
> create a product which people will one day pay you
> for. You could call it \"Show-
> Nuff\" or \"Just for Show\". Possibly your chat
> endeavor will be the jumping off
> point for a venture such as this. (I personally
> like \"Showgozin\", because it fits
> in with my conspiracy theory that you have been
> planted here by the evil East
> Village Empire in order to dumb down the TG
> product and create havoc on the TG
> board)(You also may have been planted as revenge
> for JB dumping the Cube on the
> Raggies).
>
> Possibly the best manner in which to assemble a
> following would be to win a couple
> of high profile handicapping contests or maybe
> take down a couple of mega Pick 6
> pots; to achieve either of these objectives you
> are probably going to have to
> rethink that \"95% show wager\" strategy and play
> with some serious big dogs in the
> win pool.
>
> As to my analysis of your selections, I will
> gladly add Blind Luck and Crowded
> House to your accomplishments. I will also add the
> \"overlaid\" Boys at Toscanova
> (very very surprised that Tricky plans to train
> this one up to the BC Juvie) and
> the two off the board selections from todays card.
> Forgetting about how much you
> bet or what pool you wagered in, you basically
> made 27 selections which produced
> 3 winners -- Dynaslew, Blind Luck and the
> \"overlaid\" Boys at Toscanova. Two of
> the winners were rather short priced. I know you
> can do better than this. Hell,
> give a chimpanzee a program and a magic marker...I
> won\'t go there.  
>
>
>  
> > I think im going to start doing more analysis
> on
> > here and in the chat room now rather than
> hiding
> > my ways so i can open up and share my ideas
> > completely rather than just opinion.  Maybe
> then
> > people can have an idea where I am coming from
> and
> > what my wagers are about.  Il be around ttyl
>
> This last paragraph confirms my gut feeling. Take
> some advice from an older man,
> a man much too old to know what \"ttyl\" means; that
> advice is to get a map of the
> Universe and try to locate yourself. The result
> might surprise you.
>
> NYC I broke a promise to myself, my fellow
> posters, the lecherous Bob Barker
> and the entire Walton family to disappear for 3
> weeks. I thought I owed you a
> response, but now its gotta go, love ya, bye bye.


The thorographs are the best thing in my opinion to happen to people like us who wager.  I spend a lot of money of these figures and have made money with no problems.  I have no secret intent on getting $1 or $10 or $100 on ANY money.  This is my life and i breathe it everyday.  The chat room is to be able to share opinions on what we all like through a racing day and nothing else. If you or anyone want to come into the room then fine.  If not, fine.. its just another tab on my browser.  

On a side note, I love the idea of Tricky saving Boys at Toscanova.  Realistically he would only be missing one race til BC day and it wouldnt be good for him to run his eyeballs out that given race for some reason and then bounce off the walls 4 weeks later on the big day.  You know how fragile these young fast horses can be so the safe route is much better in this situation especially for millions of dollars.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: Boscar Obarra on September 07, 2010, 02:34:32 PM
Hey, you know if you can pick $3 payoffs that score 80% of the time, you can make a lot of money.  Lots.

 Without the muss and fuss of picking winners , exactas, or perish the thought , a pick 6.

 Nice going.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: Marlin on September 07, 2010, 07:37:50 PM
I will be happy to book all the bets NYC is willing to place PRIOR to the running of the race.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: nyc1347 on September 07, 2010, 07:51:57 PM
lets do it Marlin.  il wager a max of 500 per show wager on each race... pay me track odds plus %3 on every wager amount.  il meet you once the Hawthorne meet starts at any track youd like.  we can clear up after every race i wager on is finished.  il buy the thorographs for the day too.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: marcus on September 07, 2010, 09:12:20 PM
I would gladly take you on nyc or any of your friends - except only Stks races at Kentucky / Churchill Downs , So Cal , Woodbine,UAE or UK ( Japan if available ) . Win only - no place , no show  . I need to raise some money to write and produce a play - and pay some bills and stuff etc  . ..
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: Leamas57 on September 07, 2010, 09:30:41 PM
Go get \'em NYC. I love this guy! Say what you want about \"The Kid.\"  He\'s got the moxy.

Leamas
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: nyc1347 on September 07, 2010, 09:40:19 PM
il have to pass on that offer marcus but thank you.   u should kno that my m.o. is the show.  would be interesting is someone stepped up though lol  we can even start online somehow.. if i started tomorrow id CLEARLY whip out my mad handicapping claiming skillz and go with the 9 year old highweight donkey in tomorrows delaware race 5 Wander Time then id smooth it out with the last race at Suffolk downs with Lon\'s Honor \"forward\" looking pattern lol   XD  

all that aside i would gladly meet up with someone reputable on the board and we can do this in person at any track.. i think it be an interesting and most likely profitable day for me... im not cocky just confident.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: marcus on September 07, 2010, 11:00:40 PM
Personally speaking ,this type of refusal is all old parlor hustler talk - with all respect  . .. nyc\'s afraid of losing a handicapping contest - plain and simple , and using a \"playing not to lose \" approach , he\'s already a beaten man and knows it imo . Sure he\'s the Show-bet man and would be out of his game in a handicapping contest - I\'ll even go half way and would be amenable to Win and Place flyer\'s  .
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: P-Dub on September 08, 2010, 03:30:05 AM
marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Personally speaking ,this type of refusal is all
> old parlor hustler talk - with all respect  . ..
> nyc\'s afraid of losing a handicapping contest -
> plain and simple , and using a \"playing not to
> lose \" approach , he\'s already a beaten man and
> knows it imo . Sure he\'s the Show-bet man and
> would be out of his game in a handicapping contest
> - I\'ll even go half way and would be amenable to
> Win and Place flyer\'s  .


He never said he would win a handicapping contest, nor did he say he would bet to win or place.

He has said for some time that he bets mainly to show. Now some of the NYC haters want to change the rules. He clearly said he bets to show.

Either take his challenge, meet him at the track and book his wagers, or just keep quiet.

You guys want to bang on this guy relentlessly, here\'s your chance to take him on.  Its one thing to come on here and cheap shot the guy, but when he calls you all out for a challenge I don\'t see many lining up to book his SHOW wagers.

If he is as bad as some of you claim, you should board the first plane to any track you guys can agree on.

Puffing up and being a smart alec on a message board is one thing, go meet the guy and take is money.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: TGJB on September 08, 2010, 08:04:42 AM
NYC-- you are one clueless kid, no doubt. I did you the favor of admonishing you in private up to now, no more.

You get three posts a day from now on, and you already know the rules, both for posts and person-to-person emails. Handicapping (not betting) posts are fine, stop cluttering my board with all the other garbage. Cross any of the lines and you will have to do your social networking somewhere else.

Woooooooooooooooooooooo!
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: marcus on September 08, 2010, 08:11:57 AM
P-Dub , Your being disrespectful to yourself - I offered to take on Nyc\'s friends in a \"Handicapping \" contest as well - so get over it . Recommending show wagering to others as viable is egregiously wrong imo .
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: P-Dub on September 08, 2010, 10:13:39 AM
Why is that Marcus??  I don\'t need to \"get over\" anything.

I merely said if the guy is a bad as you think he is, take him up on his offer. Simple enough??

You\'re entitled to your opinion on how he wagers.  But if show wagering is such an awful thing, or as you stated, \"egregiously wrong\", then take him up on his offer.

Not hard to grasp. You think he sucks, loses money, wagers like a crazy man. Instead of shaping the competition in a different way, let him make his show bets, the bets you think are horrible, and take his money.

I never said I endorse his way of playing.

Last comment on this as I don\'t want to clutter the board on nyc subjects, JB just posted about the board clutter. PM the guy, meet at a track, and book his show wagers. Simple enough.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: Lost Cause on September 08, 2010, 10:21:44 AM
I have to agree with P-Dub on this.  You guys are trying to change the rules on NYC.  Take his show wagers at any track he desires give him his 3% rebate and see what happens. I actually would be interested in finding out the results.  Two posters offered to take him on so far.  One changed the rules and the other has not responded so far.

It\'s simple, if you think it\'s easy money to take from him go get it..but you can\'t just change the rules on him.
Title: Re: Saratoga today
Post by: marcus on September 08, 2010, 10:52:36 AM
Personally speaking , I\'ll let these recent (and future related ) posts stand on their own merits - folks can read this string and decide for themselves who is making sense .