Just a few thoughts and opinions off the top of my head with some of these horses.. in semi-particular order:
Ice Box - popped a top in the florida because of momentum within his pattern. when he got enough rest he did run 2nd in the derby but that effort was backwards WITH rest from his top. Next out after was no good. Because this horse has no momentum coming into this race i cant really expect anything but an off effort here. Zito COLD as ice at saratoga!
A little warm - love the horse but i think with that last effort and the way things went down they are going to just let him get an easy lead here and scamper away.. is a fighter but i dont think hes going to be able to keep going with more pressure. SS will be sent! this in turn will affect him and miners reserve.
super saver - i just cant see him having any kind of winning effort. has raced wide the last few races and will be wide again and sent. wire to wire or stalk from the outside and then kick clear? i dont think so!
afleet express - should run an ok effort but that last race in the jim dandy did not impress me.. he saved ground all the way and look how much the jockey worked him to just get up for 3rd with no solid kick in the stretch. doesnt seem to me he likes going that long and now hes going even longer!
friend or foe - seems much better to me sprinting.. can we REALLY take a stance with all confidence say that we can rely on him to scoot away going 10F? i really really doubt it! seems to me like he has one move here and it would have to be a monster move to win! just not likely to me
Admiral Alex - fresh off a win going two turns and i think he can get a piece of this underneath.. this is a a softer crop overall compared to past years so why not give a chance to a slower horse who has all the room to improve off a win and 4 weeks rest?
Afleet Again - didnt fire off plenty of rest in the haskell? why? that race shouldve been a good effort..that wasnt good and there is no indication that he will fire at all.. especially from the outside. no confidence at all in this one.
fly down - another one of those momentum horses that popped several races ago in the dwyer stakes. this one will be coming late but dont you agree that it would take all the speed horses to die out as well as all the stalkers not to fire in order for him to win at this longer distance? i mean he is a late closer so that is the ONLY way that could happen and its not likely with...
Trappe shot - saving all the ground and just waiting! this tough horse only had 3 weeks going into the haskell of those negatives and was on a hand ride til the middle of the stretch. didnt have THAT much of a kick which i can understand coming off only 3 weeks rest and stretching out a little longer.. now has 4 weeks coming into this race. lost to a fresh Lookin at lucky but still got 2nd.. 3 nice top races coming in here with no huge bounces tell me that this horse is in line within his means and should have no issues firing again. Anything that is around a top effort here is really competitive compared to others in this race and with all the other variables with other horses il take the horse that should just go on his own will passing horses around the far turn and hope he will keep going under jockey pressure in the stretch. will also have the step on late closers who will most likely come wider than him in the stretch. i think fly down is going wide this time..check out what happened late to him in the jim dandy!
number power is a big plus here but I think the biggest factor with TS is the trip he will get and want to emphasize that. I honestly dont think he will race his BEST effort but i think a 0 to neg 1 can win this here and hes more than capable.. also, a few like SS are notorious recently for wide trips, others are for speed, others for being too slow, and others for simply not being reliable and firing. with TS we dont have to worry about any of that this race.. its just sit.. wait.. and go.. and hope its good enough!
Good Luck Everyone!