What is the best method to handicap first time starters. The spa has so many of these races that overlap vertical wager bets that it is difficult to exclude some horses especially since you cannot see bet patterns for the fourth leg of Pick 4 wagers. I have tried to use Pedigree, Tomlinson ratings and Breeze Figs from the form with limited success. Any suggestions from the board.
I would use these things:
1. workout time comparison from the most distant compared to the most recent working up to a race.
2. gate works are very important.. see who the fastest is and who the slowest is.
3. im not a pedigree/sire person when an individual horse has established its own pattern or numbers but i go to it as a puzzle piece for first time out horses.. when something sticks out SO much with some kind of verification AND im getting great ML odds i will play it.. such as Ronin Dax yesterday.
u can redboard that race if u want.. this is what i saw..
Tapits horses overall have been pretty fast and that 10 TGI overall number (within a fairly decent sample size) compared to the others stuck out like a sore thumb. The overall includes all the categories but with that sticking out by multiple points and with the horse showing improvement with every workout 2nd out within each distace of 4 to 6 furlongs it provided me with a sort of verification that he was ready to run in that race compared to the field. check out the works.. http://www1.drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=08004716 ..he was also 8/1 ML and completely over looked as the trainer was 0 for 8 or something first time turfers (which the public sees in the DRF). i put the trust in what the horse showed me NOT the trainer stats.
4. Look to the board to see if what u personally like is being wagered and if there is any money put on a horse that doesnt seem right. Not that this effects a horses performance but if you see a 12 to 1 shot at a saratoga type track a 2 to 1 on the board and you dont like the horse on paper i would stay away. Those works can be tricky especially when horses are shipping in from training tracks.. other states.. or even across country at times running dirt, poly or turf first time out.
5. Id stay away from maiden claimers if possible unless they have run already a couple times or something really sticks out. the MSW horses run more consistent imo based on what you see on paper... just as allowance and stakes horses run more consistent overall when compared to the cheaper claimers.
6. watch for trainers who run their horses on dirt for the first time then go straight to turf. you will see at times horses suck on dirt and then run big on grass 2nd time out(but 1st time turf). that angle just adds more of a dimension of something i personally dont want to be part of unless its forced on me like a pick 4 leg, etc.
7. look out for horses who have run once or twice and get lasix first time.
those are a few pointers and i guess il add more if i think of anything else.. im just going off the top of my head.
My guess is you don\'t use our product, probably because you don\'t bet enough. The key questions about first time starters-- intent and precocity-- are best answered by the trainer profiles and pedigree data on our sheets. Look in the Red Board Room for the data for any maiden race.
Some trainers get them ready first time out, some don\'t. Some do when they run in maiden claimers, not special weights, and vica versa. Some run better when they get bet, some don\'t. Some improve dramatically second out, and with those, the first out figure often should be ignored.
With pedigree data, while sire info is useful, the really useful info is found on the dam side. Finding a mare that has thrown foals who run big figures early is very valuable, especially if they are not well known (stake) horses.
Pay attention to sales prices, especially 2yo sales prices. Yearling prices are based on pedigree and conformation, 2yo prices are based on whether the horse worked fast. The classic situation is a horse who sold for 25k as a yearling but 400k as a 2yo-- his pedigree is worth 25k, so he has shown a lot of ability.
Finally, with big name trainers (like Pletcher), downgrade his first time starters if they are homebreds. Usually those guys get to pick their runners at sales, but for long time (or big) clients they will take on horses they ordinarily would not.
That post is worth a lot of money.
That\'s a great question. I really enjoy trying to handicap them, too. Here\'s what you do:
Find a patch of soft dirt or dust and, using a dried baobab branch, draw a grid on it the night before with as many rows and columns as there are horses. The next morning, hoping it doesn\'t rain, examine the bug tracks and the row/column with the most traffic is your winner.
I thought NYC made some good comments. Some of guys on the board here know which sires\' offspring mature faster/slower, too. For sprints you can look at the works, of course. I always like a longer work in there. For routes, it\'s more pedigree for me, though it\'s nice to see if they have worked on the surface and track they will be running on, too.
Trainer stats help because some trainers just don\'t place the emphasis on pushing that first outing. To me, it\'s a combination of pedigree and work tabs--and bug tracks, of course.
Leamas
Good stuff!
Nothing better than an actual handicapping discussion on a talent laden forum. Would add a few things.
Without specific regard to pedigree, a science few understand, it is difficult to make a point unless generalizations are used. With that written:
The age of the first timer is very important at least in terms of precocity. If a juvenile, fine, if a sophomore or older, precocity loses most of its luster.
As a general rule, the younger the horse the more influence from the sire.
Horses that are not fit, seldom win and fillies are much easier to get fit than colts and geldings.
The best starting point for cappin a firster is to ask \"Why was this mare bred to this stallion?
Trainer intent is of course important in any race, but horses win races not trainers.
Big stables, generally have \"big\" owners and many of these have farms or training centers to leg up their charges.
Works are obviously of major importance and can be interpreted differently. Two time tested tenets one positve and one negative are; 1) gaps in works are never good and 2) a firster that progresses quickly in the distance of their works is coming to hand. Most trainers will work three eights a trio of times before progressing, but a horse that goes three poles, then a week later a half then another week later five eights is almost always live.
Which sale?? Is of added significance. The best yearling sale right now is FasigTipton. The last sale, in July, four thousand yearlings applied...four hundred accepted.
Lastly over the last decade or so, owners have wanted a quicker return on their investments and the two year old in training sales have offered to feed that need. Most of these sales offer video of the 2yo\'s work, on line.
A good case in point occured Sunday at Delmar when Da Bomber made his debut. This Cal bred, altered son of the precocious Distorted Humor son Da Stoops ($3500 stud fee) was shipped to cross country to Timonium for the sale and worked a hole in the wind, with an exceptional gallop out and was RNA\'d for some eighty grand, from memory. The work is online at fasigtipton.com and is as good as a juvy can work. Shipped cross coast, again, he was RNA\'d again for big money, was sold privately, and was 8-1 on the morning line in a weak field, but had worked very well for his debut, got a tough trip and still got up at some $28.
Sorry for the ramble but this is a topic I relish. bbb
Found this gem while I should’ve been working yesterday. Question...
If a horses sales prices are not listed on the sheets, does that indicate the horse was a homebred?
Thanks in advance.
If you look at tomorrow’s (Friday) Pimlico Race 1
#2 Holiday Time does not have sales price ..But because “Breeder†is Peter Blum and “Owner†is Peter Blum, we can assume filly is a homebred.
# 3 Timeless Curls shows a Keeneland Yearling Sale in Sept 2016 and was bought for “only†$35K. I say “only†because the Sire is Curlin who stands for $150K . He serviced a Dam, who in her last recorded race, gets beat in a $30K claimer at Will Rogers Downs. So why does the breeder take the $35K at a Yearling auction after it paid $150K for Curlin’s services plus expenses of pregnant Dam, etc. Was it confirmation? A Vet issue?
most important factors i have found
(not in any order after #1).
1. trainer
2. pedigree (true nicks is a great free site with outstanding info--plug in the sire and dam and get a free report)
3. market support
4. workouts (assess an independent clocker\'s report, but don\'t ever let them put you off a long price you fancy)
5. visual paddock inspection (if you\'re not versed in this, avoid it--NYRA has Maggie who is pretty decent though shouldn\'t be taken as gospel)
6. thorograph offers statistics not found anywhere else that are VERY solid; learn to use them
I\'ve been ganbling for many decades; I find maiden races amonmg the most profitable. Don\'t be put off by them, esp. at Gulfstream winter meet and NYRA and So. cal all year.
Is the owner / breeder information anywhere on the sheets or are you comparing that with other information found else where? If it is on the sheets, I must be missing it and would feel very dumb having asked this question.
It\'s on Brisnet Past Performances or Daily Racing Forms.
I\'d like to add one more angle to Dana\'s list and lucrative as recently as Race #4? on Ky Derby day last Saturday @ Bel.
In that case, a turf route, a full field of experienced maidens. Most had run three or more times some many more times. A very few had previously run competively. So in effect a bunch of losers. One of the two first time starters won @ 20/1.
In this case taking a chance on an unknown vs believing none of the veterans was capable. The favorite ran second beaten about four lengths.
Good point. Always look to first time starters in mediocre fields, esp. if the prices are decent. Absolutely.
Wrong string, but I\'m too lazy to fix it...
The technical figure maker\'s term for what they (Ragozin) did with the Derby is ridiculous. It\'s what happens when you are fundamentalists-- we do this process, and whatever comes out is \"right\", by definition, whether it makes any sense or not.
Specifically, in this case, the only possible way you could come up with what they did is to tie the race to others on the day-- when it was pissing rain, and there was 90 minutes between races. Which is a joke-- no serious figure maker would do it. (Beyer got it right).
I would love to see someone on their board ask them how they came to those figures, and to post the whole race with the figures they ran, as we do. I\'m not holding my breath.
I would also point out this is two years in a row they screwed up that race-- last year they had the ground on Classic Empire way off, and after I pointed it out here, they didn\'t correct it, screwing their customers for the Preakness, WHO PAY THEM. Hey, it\'s only the Kentucky Derby.
Thank you for the explanation.
Tieing a mud race to a damp surface was beyond my imagination.
I didn\'t post that. Why is someone else using my name.
Leamas
Once again, I did not post this.
The Real Leamas....
canceling account, open a new one with new password and preferably a new email
Maybe you did, 8 years ago? This thread is from 2010.
What are you referring to? I don’t see your name mentioned anywhere ...
Yea you did, Leamas.. 8 years ago... :-D :-D :-D Funny.
Dana666 Wrote:
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> Good point. Always look to first time starters in
> mediocre fields, esp. if the prices are decent.
> Absolutely.
Here I am Watching the Steve Prefontaine Classic and in particular man mountains tossing the shot put 70 feet. I\'m also marveling at the effort Richiebee put into his post today, so many superscripts.
When I stumble upon a maiden claiming race finishing off the Sat SA card. I have no data but two first time starters each with a career of w/o\'s and a favorite that looks as if it c/b iffy. Hope the horizontal players included the firsters. I\'ll dutch them, good luck to all.
EDIT - More useful for the vertical players this time. Kinda short exacta? solid tri if one could find that.
I read long ago in either Quinn or Quiren that 1st step should be that sire gets 10% 1x starters and trainer gets same. Qualifies for second look. After this qualifier I look at workout pattern (not times). Is spacing of works logical? Then I look at the dam side to find class with a cursory glance at sales price.
Overlooking one of the most important points, dam stats. obviously not of much use when it\'s the 1st or 2nd foal, but when a mare is 3 of 4 winners with a stakes winner and offspring have several wins at 2yrs old, you better take notice regardless of trainer or sire.
good example of this happened on 5/25 in the 2nd race at BEL, Yes and Yes was out of a mare who had dropped 5 winners out of 5 starters, including a stakes winner and 3 turf winners. Would have been tough to bet on sire or trainer stats (which is probably why he went off at 35-1).
TreadHead Wrote:
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> Overlooking one of the most important points, dam
> stats. obviously not of much use when it\'s the
> 1st or 2nd foal, but when a mare is 3 of 4 winners
> with a stakes winner and offspring have several
> wins at 2yrs old, you better take notice
> regardless of trainer or sire.
>
> good example of this happened on 5/25 in the 2nd
> race at BEL, Yes and Yes was out of a mare who had
> dropped 5 winners out of 5 starters, including a
> stakes winner and 3 turf winners. Would have been
> tough to bet on sire or trainer stats (which is
> probably why he went off at 35-1).
In retrospect, Gleaves had at least one good reason to abandon steamy Miami for the time bieng . . .
Watch out for Phil.....
Don’t know what happened to him, been in Miami obscurity for years?
I knew him a little bit back when he was with Woody, early 80’s.
He bought a Spa house and is back here with a dozen or so 2yr olds, he owns or has a piece of most of them. I’ll be stopping by his barn to say hello soon🤫
A great Woody story 86 Travers, Phil was out on his own for not too long, he had Wise Times, Woody had Danzig Connection. Those 2 and Broad Brush are 3 across the track in a blanket photo. It comes back WT, Danzig and B.B.
I saw Woody a minute after it was official and said tough beat Mr Stephens. He smiled with that Cheshire Cat grin and said “ I’m glad for Phil plus I had the exacta REAL GOOD...â€