Lookin at Lucky - has the tendency to not fire after every top effort he has run. even with the break i would think an off effort is more than likely expected here and that would still put LAL right there.. I jumped off him to win cause something is telling me that he will most likely fire second off the layoff and with low odds il take a stand against a win.
Afleet Again - the pattern is beautiful with very nice timing into the race. i do see a few negatives here though. will most likely be bet down cause of jersey bravo and being the local horse plus the set up here is sketchy to me. I dont think from the 2 hole Bravo is going to let trappe shot get out and set any slow pace so he will be going pretty fast up front. Should have enough in the tank down the stretch but is it enough to be close to the pace win with a solid kick in the strech? Probably not.
Ice Box - only has one top effort good enough to still be slower than a few others here.. everything will have to go his way to win this and closing deep at monmouth is REALLY hard.. also has gone backwards since that top and anything but a top/new top would not be good enough so il pass.
First Dude - should be mid pack and get a nice trip. bounced 4 points last out going 10F but had no rest so that backwards move is DEF an excuse. Has PLENTY of rest here. Lets put a BIG X on that last effort as it has NO meaning to what today brings with FD coming into this race off the freshening with plenty of rest! The excuse for FD is MORE valid due to the fact that he has never bounced ever prior to that effort AND even with the bounce still ran his second best effort ever with NO rest! Eliminating that last effort for this SOLID excuse gives us a horse forging past a negative number! What makes us think he cant keep forging? Theres no end of the line here imo.. This angle is VERY strong here in this race and FD offers 6-1 ML value!
Our Dark Knight - even though the ML odds are great I think this one is more likely to bounce off that last number.
Super Saver - hes in line and i would expect an effort here that would be consistent with the 1-4 range.. that wouldnt be good enough to win but can give him somewhere in the number possibly. Use Underneath
Uptowncharlybrown - last 2 are off form and i wouldnt expect anything different then an effort within the 2-5 range.
Trappe Shot - should be somewhere up front and has nice number power here. bounced last out and that was NOT an excusable bounce. has even less rest coming into today off that bounce effort and a top effort to me should not expected.. with that said.. this one can run another 2 as easily as he can run an X race.. ur guess is as good as mine but i would use underneath lightly if anything.. offers no value too so much more negatives than positives.
Overall - LAL should be around 9/5 or so and deserves to be being the fastest here.. some questions keep coming back to me with the bounce situation and reliability issues to win this.. FD has a pattern that shows me he can run a HUUUUUGE effort today and go forward past his last top effort with an excused bounced in his last race and rest! FD has been reliable thru his career and no reason to think anything will change that today with all the positives going in.. GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE! =)
Nice analysis nyc. Trappe Shot is a nice colt, but the sheet is not as strong as I was hoping for.
I can\'t find any value here. Looks like a pass for me.
Toppled, any views here after the fine call in the JDandy?