it\'s been a pretty good year for ny breds in open stakes company. could the trend continue on Saturday?
been a fan of Friend or Foe since the maiden race. bred to go long with a nice stride, and plenty of speed. trip from post 8 a concern for this lightly raced, very big son of Friends Lake. best bet for Maragh is to drop back and try to do it in the fashion of FOF\'s granddad, imo. \'4\' and \'2.5\' last two won\'t be enough, but it\'s a nice sheet, and I\'m looking for a new top tomorrow.
and Stormy\'s Majesty might even get a piece here. \'1\' last is competitive. not sure he\'s got the class of some of these, but Prado should get right to the rail and save most of the ground. add in the weight allowance, and SM should wind up getting at least few lengths from some of the more popular foes.
always liked Fly Down, and he looks tough, but post and weight don\'t help.
early read is to key FOF.
I really like A Little Warm in the Jim Dandy. Because the horses in the Louisiana Derby didn\'t fire on the wet track in the Derby, the LAD gets overlooked . I think it was one of the classiest preps of the spring-it has already produced the Belmont winner. A Little Warm ran a good 2nd then came back at Delaware & ran a 2.5 point new top, something I think was well within his range. Weighted lightly at 115 pounds, a pair or move forward wins this thing. Numbers plus class edge-go to the windows.
Other races on the card look appealing:
2nd: Megaholtz is obvious off his winning 6 when he got DQ\'d
3rd: The reason I mentioned the obvious Megaholtz,is to pair up in the DD with 12-1 ml Unforgettable PJ. Paulino Ortiz is known to toss some bombs at Saratoga and even though he has not shown early speed in his turf routes,his tops are competitive with this bunch. I look for a vastly improved finish for PJ Saturday.
7th: Top It (10-1 ml) stretches out off 2010 June debut, Only 5yo in the field may have maturity edge while only spotting 4 lbs to the 3yos & is even weight with the 4s. Although his top was over a year ago in the mud, I\'m looking for him to move forward towards that top in his 2nd race of the year.
8th: If favorite The Noz pairs his turf sprint # at a route, he crushes this field, only threat could be red hot Chad Brown\'s 1st time starter Atitlan. If Top It performs as expected, I\'m looking at another decent DD pairing a favorite in open race with a double digit priced winner in the other leg.
10th-I love A Little Warm-see above.
11th -Ending the day with Chad Brown\'s British Banker to complete the late DD. I\'ll be checking to see if the 11 or 12 get in off the AEs since they appear to be the main competition.
Jim Dandy looks like a nice race. Here are my thoughts.
1-Steinbeck: Very athletic, nice-looking colt. Just wonder if he has enough speed to stay close to these. Why not keep him on the grass? Chased good ones in England/Ireland.
2-Afleet Express: I really like this guy. Emerging superstar? Be very tough to beat today and in the Travers!
3-Stormy\'s Majesty: Hard to fault. Very professional. Obviously big step up though. Looks like he\'ll stay.
4-Aikenite: Does finish, but I wonder about the extra distance. Will take a stand against.
5-A Ltitle Warm: Great looking horse. Another who is hard to fault. Do think it will be a different game trying to go by Afleet as opposed to Miner though - should be a good stretch duel.
6-Miner\'s Revenge: Think he may be in a little deep here.
8-Friend of Foe: Not sure he can compete versus these, doesn\'t look to me like he\'ll love the added ground either - still hard to fault an unbeaten colt much.
9-Fly Down: Hard to imagine he\'ll run by all these late. Maybe the Travers will be a different story though.
2-Afleet Express over
5-A Little Warm
good stuff toppled ... nice take on ALW. that guy was on my radar for the Preakness, for the reasons you mention. I actually used a few of those La Derby runners with SS in the Derby. if Zito scratches, Johnny V can control this race from on or just off the pace. if MR runs, however, I think we are looking at a decent pace, and the odds of a closer getting up increase.
In the 5th, I\'ll be looking to see if Insider Tip is wearing fronts. the horse needed more ground last year, and it\'s likely he wasn\'t ready to go last. could hit the board at a price.
I like both NY Breds at prices and Fly Down should be tough if Miners Reserve stays in the field.
Friend or Foe should get a stalking trip off the two pace horses if he can handle the stretchout.
Storm\'s Majesty could clunk up into it.
Fly Down should be coming best late.
Skeptical of the Delaware form translating for ALW and I have 9f questions on AE and ALW at short prices.
In the Diana lightly raced Maram could jump up to the 2 range third race back.Lezcano has to figure out the trip but she\'d be competitive with expected improvement.
Good Luck
How does Maram overcome her post and the bias? This is what pure numbers cannot answer.
Would have to run the race of her life just to get in the top 2.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Don\'t be surprised if you see Maram on the front end, or at the very least stalking. She will be \"sent\" and that will overcome the post position.
Good luck to all
Mike considering the way speed was holding they probably should have jsut sent him. Also being 2 turns for the dirst time he seemed to hang a little on the far turn when the rider was asking. Another day maybe.
I needed Shared Account in the Diana. Why her rider let the 1 out on the Backstretch. Watch it again!
Then he let the other two come up to him on the turn when he should have been attacking
Tried to keep FT pinned in and still let her out
Brutal!!.
Share your frustration with Prado, Silver. He is just not aggressive enough. Should have been closer to the front-totally misjudged the pace and then did all those things you mentioned. Congrats to toppled on A Little Warm.
Thanks. I didn\'t hit much else, as you can see, but I maximized my winnings on A Little Warm and walked out of Saratoga very happy.