anyone doing well so far...getting my ass kicked and the analysis is no better. Any comments appreciated before I make the trip mid-August.
O\'Neil\'s horses seem to have really awakened during the first week. He said on TVG the other day he \"freshened\" them for the meet
I am doing very poorly at Del Mar so far as well.
Something I am missing clearly.
I am backing off this week and seeing if I can make sense of things before jumping back into the pool.
Typical of the despicable Del Mar surface, one day it plays outside stalk, next day inside speed.Saw clueless Joe Harper,Del Mar CEO, continuing to defend the surface.
New track guru out there basically calls that surface a nightmare to maintain, day to day, night to morning, sun to clouds.
Mike
Aggressively went after two pick 4s opening week at Del Mar with negative results.
I don\'t think the best horse wins on that Polytrack, but it is unlike Keeneland, where there is at least some pattern/sense to the alternate synthetic universe.
On Del Mar turf, horses that sit a little off the pace can blast home and the deep closers have trouble catching them. So far the turf is playing more Hollywood than Santa Anita in the races I\'ve watched.
One thing I would say is to focus on grass races. They seem much more formful - the grass course is deepish and fair and class shows there. Polytrack races are rough, no doubt - the best horse seldom wins. No one can figure those out. You really have to watch the weather, too. The track changed so much the first week, went on to favor inside speed by Sunday, yet the rail was death Friday/Saturday -- how do you plan for these bias swings? I\'m doing Sunday\'s pick six looking at the charts for Friday/Saturday thinking I don\'t want to be inside, crazy stuff. You\'re not the only one. The only saving grace is that if you manage to hit one, you\'ll get rewarded. You need a huge bankroll though. I would also say to watch replays and try to decipher which horses like Polytrack and which don\'t - Santa Anita is much closer to the Del Mar surface than Hollywood. Yes, Doug O\'Neil has awakened - everything he sends out is running. Mike Mitchell a usual heavy hitter at Del Mar seems a little cold. If you figure something out, let us know! Richard\'s Kid is running in his usual Pacific Classic Prep on Friday - mile and a half on the poly - whoo hooo! Oh, my other tip is to wheel races on poly in multi-race exotics - Del Mar is one of the few tracks where that will pay off. I know that concept is anathema to any serious handicapper, but try it - single grass races and wheel poly track races in pick 3\'s, pick 4\'s, etc.
I am having some luck looking for hidden speed, and good trips from the rail. David Flores seems to be aware of the inside bias, is riding well, and he should be able to stalk the speed on the rail in race 5(#1). In the eighth, Bonde is being his usually reliable 25%, and looks like he(#1) can wire the field from the rail.
Dana wrote:
\"the rail was death Friday/Saturday\"
If the rail was death Friday, then an awful lot of funerals were taking place in the winner\'s circle because horses on the inside won every race except one. In fact, the inside was only a head (in race five) away from sweeping the card.