Thanks for the enlightenment regarding the value of the wide trips in the handicapping process!
It certainly came into play this weekend and especially after the PP draw. I always like FC because he beat my horse Storm Cadet in the fall...and knowing that EM had to probably go 3W and 3W with traffic made up my mind about FC as the strongest play!
Keep up the great work...
When has Empire Maker not had to go a bit wide? I mean you had to factor the wide but that didn\'t give Funny the win. Its possible that Empire ran a couple lengths more than Funny but if he was a killer he doesnt lose ground in late stretch. If you lose track of that fact you\'re into the same delusion that is currently afflicting Bobby and Jerry. But I\'m fairly certain Bobby isn\'t really deluded anymore. His charge missed one workout is my understanding, I seriously doubt that cost him the loss. I think Bobby is scared to death of Funny now. He don\'t want him at shorter distances because Funny\'s proven he will be in front of Empire. And now, I don\'t think he wants him at 12 marks cause Empire was losing the game at 10. Do you see how these things tend to build on each other?
Bobby is gonna put him away and try to get him to where he\'s a better horse later in the year, cause he ain\'t good enough now. you gotta remember this is the horse Bobby said would win the Derby and now he realizes the Three Year Old Eclipse is in jeopardy.
lol
Tabi
Tabitha,
Here was my take...in the Wood, they both had easy routes, neither going too wide. And I believe that EM was going all out to beat FC...and only beat him by 1/4 length. Just the added distance that EM would have to run into the first turn at Churchill or the extra effort to spring out of the gates to get to FC by the 1st turn would use some of him up. Then he had to traffic around all the rest and probably still have to go 3-4 W in turn 2 would not leave him much gas to run FC down, who we knew would have an easier trip because of his early speed. And I feel that spent EM showed it in the last 1/8th and 1/16th.
Also, Preakness...tighter turns???
SJU5
Tabi,
I know you hate Frankel but don\'t let that cloud your opinion of his horse. He ran farther and faster than Funny on Saturday. And, he bounced.
I hear what your saying. All I\'m trying to point out is that genuine closers with great stamina don\'t lose ground against pace horses at the very end after going wide.
O.K. I take that back, Cryptoclearance was a genuine closer and he lost ground in the stretch against Easy Goer in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. But Easy Goer was no run of the mill horse.
Part of my rationale pertains to Peace Rules effort as well. I think Peace and Empire are similar horses. I know Bobby doesn\'t, but what the hay.
You can blame it on a trip of a couple extra lengths or lack of foundation because of a missed work or a bounce, but I think that is a mistake. I think both of Bobby\'s horses ran their race and Bobby knows it. If Bobby brings him back for the Belmont, wins it and F.C. doesn\'t bounce I\'ll eat my words.
Tabi