So as we look at First Dude entering the Belmont I figured I would look at the last 5 years to see how horses ran coming from a top effort the very previous race prior entering this race..
a total of 31 horses ran their top efforts or new top efforts the last 5 years the race right before the Belmont.
of those horses:
8 ran top efforts (aprrox %26)
3 paired their last top effort (approx %9.5)
and 20 horses regressed or bounced (%64.5) in the Belmont
Interesting to me was that there were actually 31 total horses that ran top efforts or new top effort the last 5 years (about 6 horses average per year) the race right before the Belmont.. that a pretty big number!
With only 3 weeks rest off its not likely and realistic that First Dude can come back to a new top effort especially going 12F. Using this small scale (just the last 5 years) whats left over is a minimal chance of a pair and a huge chance that he will regress/bounce.
Tough to know what to do with this (at least for me) without knowing the spacing of the previous race or the number of races they ran prior to that. Just randomly picking the 2006 Belmont, I see Sun River, High Finance and Double Galore ran lifetime tops the race before Belmont. Sun River (who was 3rd) ran a lifetime top 3 weeks before the Belmont and a nice effort 7 weeks before that; HF ran his top 5 weeks before the Belmont and another pretty big effort 3 weeks before that at KEE. Double Galore ran 5 races (including the Belmont) in 11 weeks and was eased. (As an aside, I\'ve never heard of Myung Kwon Cho who was DG\'s trainer). Thoughts?
NYC,
thanks for taking the time to do the analysis and the post, much appreciated.
No problem.. i didnt think it was necessary to continue to other years as i got the point quick that there is a huge amount of horses regressing/bouncing off top efforts going into the Belmont.
Beginner.. the spacing to me wasnt that much of a big deal as First Dude has very low rest coming into the race. Most of these 3 year olds have 3-6 weeks or so average rest prior to the belmont as the season has been a go for 5 months entering the Belmont and each horse is spaced accordingly between races.
Entering the Belmont we know that First Dude does not have that much rest and it is not likely he will run a top effort ESPECIALLY off of a negative number AND going 12F next out. With that being said theres a huge chance he wont run well and can probably be left out if he runs.
Also, I havent seen Fly Downs number but he falls into this category too. When projecting his last race it looks pretty close to if not a negative number to me. He has more rest though so more to be seen when the numbers come out as well as others who may have set a top last out.
Got it - thanks for the follow-up. Appreciate it.
You got it. As a general rule when horses run negative numbers in the first half of the 3yo season I love seeing 3 months rest to the next start to come back to a horse race so that they can run to a nice top or new top effort.. might sound excessive but these horses are very fragile and break down easily.
Birdstone and bernardini are great examples of horses who broke thru top efforts then were able to come back bc they had nice rest. over the past several years weve been blessed with freak horses like big brown, curlin, smarty jones, etc.. who were able to somewhat maintain negative efforts off short rest but realistically they were good enough to bounce and still win (Rachel Alexandra) cause they were great consistent fast animals compared to horses they were running against at that time.. all the others who couldnt such as keyed entry, bellamy road, sinister miniester etc they bounced off the walls and did pretty much nothing after they reacted so badly.
Going into the belmont we have 2 horses that are right around that negative area and they arent freak horses per say so i wouldnt be willing to think they can go forward again. Overall i havent even seen horses pair that much after running the negatives so im really looking against both Fly Down and First Dude. Again, I do not know Fly Downs line and if he only improved a little bit there is a chance he can go forward again but I cant form a true opinion without seeing his numbers.
If anyone can post Fly Downs thorograph that be awesome!
Beware the Dude. (Caveat Dudeor)
Now I have to specify which Dude (this after I had to qualify my use of FD...).
The First Dude. This horse is a cruiser. Admittedly he ran a big race and it was a big jump, but this guy has the kind of running style that suggests to me he could go all day. Amazingly, he has a turn of foot, too, but if they can sit him off the lead and let him gobble up a couple more feet of ground with every stride than the others can, he will win the Belmont.
I see the makings of a super horse here, and am a little suprised that few others here do.
Leamas
Leamas57 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Beware the Dude. (Caveat Dudeor)
>
> I see the makings of a super horse here, and am a
> little suprised that few others here do.
>
> Leamas
Leamas:
I\'ve seen super horses, and believe me, First Dude is not a super horse.
FD is NW2LT going into the Belmont. Let me spell that out: Non. Winner. Two.
Races. Life. Time. If you are going to coronate FD as a \"Super Horse\" at this
point in his career, at least crown him with one of those cardboard hats they
give out at Burger King.
He certainly may be able to win the Belmont next Saturday against a mediocre
bunch of 3YOs.
The cream of the crop will not be at Belmont Park for the \"Test of the Champion\".
The \"cream\" this year actually resembles skim milk.
In my mind the 2 best 3YOs still racing are Lookin at Lucky and Biofuel, who have
to be considered the favorites for two of the Summer\'s big 3YO events, the
Haskell and the Alabama.
Biofuel humbled a field of 3YO fillies at Woodbine over the weekend; if you watch
the replay of this race and do not see immense talent, watch the race again.
Ice Box will enter the race with the most cred -- his win in the Florida Derby,
where he got a perfect set up -- and many on the Board have rightfully pointed out
that his unwillingness to change leads is cause for concern.
The most fascinating aspect of this years edition of the Belmont is that NP Zito
will saddle two favorites in the race after winning with 2 Belmont bombs in the
last 6 years.
Right now the Belmont entrant who interests me is an underachieving colt who is
trained by a Hall of Fame trainer who has historically had very little success
with Spring 3YOs (or Summer 3YOs for that matter).
First Dude is apparently named for the husband of America\'s most popular MILF,
Sarah Palin.
In this case \"MILF\" stands for \"Moron I\'d like to Forget\".
Richie
The rider switch won\'t hurt.Question is does the added distance help?
Same question you have to answer for the other one paced types-Stay Put and Stately Victor(one paced in his dirt efforts)
Uptowncharlybrown is another one I lump into that group.Strange horse.He does his best runnning after the wire.Watch the two gallop outs in his TB routes.Limehouse/Langfuhr you would think no shot but the bottom of the pedigree is sneaky at the Classic distances.
Leamas:
The key to beating this crazy game is knowing a \"super horse\" 3 minutes before he runs his eyeballs out at 23-1.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I actually made a post a few minutes before they let them go that day and the horses I mentioned were First Dude and PP.
Leamas
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Leamas57 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Beware the Dude. (Caveat Dudeor)
> >
> > I see the makings of a super horse here, and am
> a
> > little suprised that few others here do.
> >
> > Leamas
>
> Leamas:
>
> I\'ve seen super horses, and believe me, First Dude
> is not a super horse.
>
> FD is NW2LT going into the Belmont. Let me spell
> that out: Non. Winner. Two.
> Races. Life. Time. If you are going to coronate FD
> as a \"Super Horse\" at this
> point in his career, at least crown him with one
> of those cardboard hats they
> give out at Burger King.
>
> He certainly may be able to win the Belmont next
> Saturday against a mediocre
> bunch of 3YOs.
>
> The cream of the crop will not be at Belmont Park
> for the \"Test of the Champion\".
> The \"cream\" this year actually resembles skim
> milk.
>
> In my mind the 2 best 3YOs still racing are Lookin
> at Lucky and Biofuel, who have
> to be considered the favorites for two of the
> Summer\'s big 3YO events, the
> Haskell and the Alabama.
>
> Biofuel humbled a field of 3YO fillies at Woodbine
> over the weekend; if you watch
> the replay of this race and do not see immense
> talent, watch the race again.
>
> Ice Box will enter the race with the most cred --
> his win in the Florida Derby,
> where he got a perfect set up -- and many on the
> Board have rightfully pointed out
> that his unwillingness to change leads is cause
> for concern.
>
> The most fascinating aspect of this years edition
> of the Belmont is that NP Zito
> will saddle two favorites in the race after
> winning with 2 Belmont bombs in the
> last 6 years.
>
> Right now the Belmont entrant who interests me is
> an underachieving colt who is
> trained by a Hall of Fame trainer who has
> historically had very little success
> with Spring 3YOs (or Summer 3YOs for that
> matter).
>
> First Dude is apparently named for the husband of
> America\'s most popular MILF,
> Sarah Palin.
>
> In this case \"MILF\" stands for \"Moron I\'d like to
> Forget\".
Well, I deserve some rebuke for hyperbole with the use of \"superhorse\"(I did say \"the makings of a superhorse\"), but I see the Dude as having tremedous upside potential--Curlinesque, perhaps, and frankly don\'t give a _______ that he moved up quickly. You act as if the horse is a rat despite the fact that he got second in the Preakness ($336,000 in earnings) and could have won with a slightly more conservative ride.
As for the name, that is a terrible blight by association if it\'s true. Meanwhile, if this guys stays healthy, he will go on to win some big races and a lot of money. Superhorse--depending on your definition, perhaps not, supersized earnings potential--oh yeah!
I will take him against any other three year-old colt you want to come up with (except Endorsement--whom you wouldn\'t choose anyway) for earnings over the next year. Loser sends in a picture wearing the Burger King hat--and smiling, by next year\'s Belmont.
Leamas
I see you\'re still not over your crush on Endorsement yet. : )
No, and I can\'t wait to bet him once he\'s back :)
Leamas
Leamas:
Thanks for the good natured response and the proposed wager is intriguing.
I do not recall saying that FD was a rat. I do recall saying that he has a chance
of winning the Belmont next Saturday.
Leamas I turn 55 in a couple of months. When I first introduced myself to Racing
there were some true super horses in competition. I always go back to the same
five-- Secretariat, Forego, Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid. There have been
hundreds of brilliant horses who have campaigned since the Bid\'s almost mind
boggling 4YO campaign in 1980, but these five set the bar pretty high.
I get a little prickly when folks feel the need to have a superhorse each year.
I was dismayed to hear NYC call Ghostzapper, Smarty and Big Brown \"freaks\". They
were fast horses with very short shelf lives.
I do not think we will have another Triple Crown winner in my lifetime. It has
less to do with the spacing of the races than it does with trainers\' reluctance
to race their prospects frequently as 2YOs (look at the juvenile seasons of
Secretariat, Affirmed and the Bid)(also note that Spec Bid competed in all 3
of Gulfstream\'s 3YO prep races (Hutcheson, FOY, and Florida Derby) before
attempting to take the Triple Crown).
We are lucky to have two runners in training who can eventually take their place
among the all time greats if they have not already.
I\'ll consider the wager. You did say \"colt\" which means you may have anticipated
me taking Biofuel.
You can have Biofuel.
Leamas
Richie:
You forgot Ruffian.
Unfortunately those days are over. Like many other things in the world, horse racing has slowly degenerated over the last 30 years.
Jerry claims horses are faster than they were back in the 70\'s. Maybe so. But IMO, Ruffian would have left Zenyatta in the dust and Lookin at Lucky would not qualify as a workmate for Spectacular Bid.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Richiebee said:
> I get a little prickly when folks feel the need to
> have a superhorse each year.
> I was dismayed to hear NYC call Ghostzapper,
> Smarty and Big Brown \"freaks\". They
> were fast horses with very short shelf lives.
SHORT lived Richiebee because they were FREAK horses.. they ran in ranges of negative 3s to 6.5s at there prime! Before Midnight Lute and Quality Road came along to run Negative 7s GZ was the fastest horse of all time anad the above listed as well as others I havent mentioned were just a couple points off from that level. Horses never ran that fast back when Forego, etc. were running and were able to come back to run off short rest with no problems. I do respect those horses though cause they were hard hitting and ran amazing for their respective fields so I understand the prickly factor.
Its just not the same anymore though..The biggest reason was obviously the Sire Fees they were able to charge for these animals when they retired.. $250,000 for Ghostzapper in his first year?! =O Id short shelve him if I knew I could get THAT fee!
I\'m calling a technical foul on you, Richiebee, for failing to say the word \"Alydar\" after using the word \"Affirmed\". We just can\'t have that. We all know there is no Thorograph notation for \"running scared\", but that don\'t mean it don\'t exist.
magicnight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m calling a technical foul on you, Richiebee,
> for failing to say the word \"Alydar\" after using
> the word \"Affirmed\". We just can\'t have that. We
> all know there is no Thorograph notation for
> \"running scared\", but that don\'t mean it don\'t
> exist.
Wow. A horse that lost 7 out of the 10 races when matched up should be mentioned equally with the one that won 7 times.
Alydar was good, but he wasn\'t the horse that won the Triple Crown. If winning the Triple Crown doesn\'t distinguish a horse apart from the rest, then why do we bother talking about the Tripe Crown as a great accomplishment??
You can call it running scared or whatever you want. Obviously a talented horse, but he doesn\'t deserve to be mentioned with a Triple Crown winner.
On what basis would you ever even consider adding Alydar to this list??
nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------
>
> If anyone can post Fly Downs thorograph that be
> awesome!
Don\'t know for sure,but off the top of my head he was in the 7 or 8 range going into the Louisiana Derby so it\'s likely the Dwyer was a pretty significant jump up- and more than First Dude\'s five point top.
At 12f\'s I think pedigree has to be considered and IMO First Dude is better suited for this trip.MTB paired a big Derby top on short rest twice in the Preakness and Belmont.Going back a ways First Dude has a sheet similar to Belmont winners Tabasco Cat and Colonial Affair.They were also coming back on short rest off new tops.I\'m going against the percentages and playing First Dude to pair.
Ice Box fired another sharp 4f work same deal as before the Fla Derby and Ky Derby.He should be fine at the distance although he won\'t get the same pace setup.I give First Dude the tactical advantage and will be playing him on top in tri\'s and supers over IB to hit the board which is very chalky.
Hopefully something longer than Fly Down can hit the board.I\'m liking Uptowncharlybrown a little bit to hit the bottom of the tickets.
I was joking, Paul. Guilty of PWI.
It took over 50 posts on the Belmont before someone even mentioned Uptown.
Kerrison made his annual call to me yesterday, the Post will have some general analysis by me of the Belmont and the 3yo crop in the Monday or Tues edition.
magicnight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I was joking, Paul. Guilty of PWI.
LOL......I\'m sorry bro. You sounded kinda serious. You got me.
TGJB:
Why would anyone mention \"Uptown?\".
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe
He\'s competitive on dirt #\'s.Go to the ROTW archives for the Lexington on April 17th.
I have no idea how he scored in that poly race but he was wide and he had some trouble in the stretch if you watch the race closely.There was repeated bumping with the horse to his inside and he was still able to finish with good energy.
Barn change could also be viewed as a positive.
I\'ve seen worse looking horses hit the bottom of the tri or super in a Belmont.
uptown reminds me of Drosselmeyer or a slower Dublin.. wussy horses that cant get things done with ANY trip! they are scared.. best of the worst..or something along those lines.. and im joking but im not.. its true!
its like having a basketball team and u need to pick a center.. tim duncan is taken.. do you pick another guard to cover tim duncan? or do you pick shawn bradley (uptowncharlybrown) cause hes \"tall\" and just there?.. i mean you HAVE to pick shawn cause hes just tall, and there and whatever.. THAT is the best way i can explain uptown.. hes the shawn bradley of racehorses.. some days he will run bad or good.. some days he will run great.. BUT he will never win anything THAT big. hes just a goofy horse that runs for giggles. =)