ITS PEANUT BUTTER JACKSON BEND TIME!
horse developed beautifully last year.. Came out this year perfectly in line with all his efforts and has shown an on and off pattern. KEY NOTE though is that his last race was run in the slop which was his first ever and the race was also BLAZING fast...his pattern already suggested that he would toss in that off effort anyway and an \"8\" with those sloppy conditions (his first) and h_pace is not a surprise to me at all. im putting a huge X across that last number as that thoro number has no representation for what this horse has shown to us this year. By doing this I am saying that the 8 is a NON effort and coming from the last effort prior of a \"2\" (which is is line with his top 0 last year) and 6 weeks off from THAT effort into the Preakness I can expect a new top effort in the Preakness. Dismissing that last effort and seeing that he is forging towards that 0 last year and can very well surpass it tomorrow! JB has NEVER WENT backwards off 6 weeks rest and this is the best shot to run a top effort with so many angles going into his favor.
Small Recap:
1. has never gone back off 6 weeks off from a top effort.
2. has 6 weeks off from his 3yo top effort.
3. ran an off 8 non-effort in his first slop and brutal pace in an expected off race anyway according to his 3 yo pattern.
4. offers 12-1 ML value
5. excusing the 8 non effort he is forging towards his 2 yo top (0.25) with perfect 6 weeks timing into the Preakness.
6. Based on the above and what he has shown to us on Thorograph, a career top or new top effort can be expected in the Preakness.
7. That effort would win.
What else do you guys need to play a 12-1 ML?! imo Jackson Bend is the play here in the Preakness. ML looks great to me at 12 -1 for this angle and a solid key in many exotic plays. I will be all over him everywhere. Good Luck to all!
So you\'re saying he\'s had 6 weeks off even though he hasn\'t had 6 week off? Should we pretend every other Derby starter that race never happened a couple weeks ago either either? Not sniping... Just trying to figure this out...
His last race of an 8 is a complete toss out cause its NON effort. How do I know this? Well the last time he raced an 8 was last august and he has improved and developed completely from that point. ALL his top efforts this year are 2s which are in line with each other. To me there is a HUGE reason that 8 number is so bad and to me imo its bc he ran slop first time and it was a brutal pace. Two things that the horse hasnt experienced before. Do you think its a logical to think that JB will run 8s this year? I personally dont think so and will toss that race out like it never happened unless im meeting similar situations in the future (ex: classic race in the slop going 10F assuming a faster pace, etc). That doesnt exist for tomorrows race.
The 4 and 8 are only comparable bc they are non efforts and havent helped or hurt this horses best efforts. If anything the 4 helped space his top efforts out giving him enough rest and im projecting the 8 to do the same consistent with what he has shown us. PUT AN X on the 4 and 8.. those numbers mean NOTHING on Preakness day cause his PATTERN suggests a TOP effort tomorrow with the 6 weeks from his top effort. those 4s and 8 will only mean something later on if he continues his on and off PATTERN. His PATTERN suggests that the 4 and 8 are non efforts that SHOULD be dismissed completely. They are in no way a part of this horses true racing abilities.
With that being said the 2 efforts of \"2s\" this year are in line with his 0 effort last year. He has proved that he can run a top effort off 6 weeks off numerous times and hes entering this race with that amount of time from his last top effort. THIS years line to me entering the Preakness is 2 and 2! NOT 2, 4, 2, 8...because I AM expecting an effort. An EFFORT WOULD EQUAL A 2, 0, OR NEW EFFORT. My pattern read is for a TOP race consitent with his alternate line (which doesnt include off efforts) AND also consistent with the rest he has from his last TRUE effort which happens to be in this situation a top. Look at his career pattern with 6 weeks off. They are all tops (10 to a 6, 5 to a 0, 4 to a 2 (which is a 3yo top)). My opinion is consistent with this read and I am expecting a top effort tomorrow with a \"pair\" of 2s entering the Preakness based on pattern.
The major question to me is will he run a 2 top? a 0 top? or a new top? Well whatever he runs he will certainly be right there with everyone since most are slower than him. In my opinion hes %33 to run a 2 (in the money) and %66 to run a 0 or better (a win at 12-1 ML). Either way, in my opinion, unless he has some wide ground losing trip, is that hes %100 itm with a great shot to win at a nice price.
I agree that JB derby was a non effort. He\'s very sharp for this race and will be right towards the front with the good draw that he got. A decent trip is likely as long as he doesn\'t have to go too fast early. My main concern with him is that he hasn\'t developed from 2 to 3. This is not the typical profile of a triple crown race winner. I also think this race is further than he wants to go.
I don\'t think he can win. But I think you are going to get a good price on him. At the price I am going to use him underneath but won\'t be surprised if he backs up down the lane.
MJ -
For him to develop from his last years top effort he would need to be in the negative territory.. which would be freakish that early in jan-mar.. u kno like smarty jones, eske, big brown, bernardini, etc.. Hes running tops of 2 this year but they are in line with that 0 effort especially being his second and third best races ever.. even an off 4 effort was his next best race ever. Nothin wrong with that. Hes running better than ever outside of that one 0 effort. Going into this race with what he has previously shown to us he seems to have the best shot to get by that top or at least to it.
Race looks even better for him when you have others such as Paddy and SS who have new tops with only 2 weeks rest. LAL probably runs between a 0.75 to 3.75 with no value. Dublin stuck outside and has already shown to get those wide trips.. and the horses who will save ground from the inside are too slow to win other than Yawanna. YT has a nice top but im expecting a reaction from his last race. No one else left to mention except Caracortado who runs his best on poly.
Not sure how you can say Caracortado runs his best on synthetic with absolutely no data to back that up, other than a maiden debut over a bullring track almost a year ago. His synth numbers are well in line with, if not better than, most horses shipping from California after several synth races and then popping a zero or better on dirt. I think he needs to be given the standard 50% chance of popping a big number and should be factored into tickets accordingly.
I understand your take. Can\'t say you\'re wrong to look at it that way. But for me, not getting back to your two year old top this far along at 3 is a negative, and I don\'t care how fast the 2 year old top was.
This horse isn\'t bred to be a classic horse, he\'s not bred to get the distance, and I don\'t like him to win. But I think with the draw and set-up he is likely to get, plus the fact that all the info I am getting is telling me this guy is acting very, very keen right now, tells me he probably will give it his all. And I agree the the derby effort is a toss. The horse spit out the bit at the top of the stretch and was obviously spinning his wheels all the way around.
I don\'t think he want to go this far, and I\'m pretty confident in that. I also think he is going to be right up front and I don\'t know how fast they are going to go. I\'m thinking he loses steam down the lane, but he\'s a gutty little guy and I think he will try his heart out. At the price he is going to be he is worth using underneath for me. I give him about the same chance to hit the board as Aikenite and First Dude, maybe a little better, but that\'s just me.
Good Luck though.
My take on JB is he is racing beyond his preferred distance. He was a precocious two year old, ran well in his 3yo debut going a one turn mile with a reasonable pace, bounced a little when stretched further and running on a slower pace, holding off a closing Aikenite, then returned to his current top running again on a comfortable pace, holding off an unshod Awesome Act and a sick Schoolyard Dreams.
In the Derby, he was back off a much faster pace, made a strong middle move (slop OK), then couldn\'t sustain the last quarter mile. 9.% furlongs, unless the pace is slow and the others are all compromised, may still be too far.
Agree with your analysis of JB. I think he is distance limited but always tries hard. Nice work. I think he will be 2nd.
The data is there to me Tread. U notice the HUGE jump when he ran on poly? He only reacted from that point bc he didnt get enough rest and went back NOT because he jumped from such a HIGHER (sorry) dirt number.. first time he got rest about 6 weeks he went forward again which proves that hes better on poly. that BIG jump tells me he should run better on poly than dirt especially not reacting from his top poly efforts with significant rest (3 months or so from top to top). if he ran first out ever on poly imo he wouldve ran a much faster effort than his dirt number represents. I take this as him being a poly horse and not dirt.
Understood, I just personally think you are reading way too much into the FPX race given it was his very first out and that is a bull ring track where horses spend almost as much time on turns as they do straight aways. I\'m not saying to make him they key to the race, but it certainly cannot be that large a surprise if he happens to run a zero here and be right in the thick of it.
Thanks for the analysis NYC. Good reasoning behind the JB selection.
I agree with most of it, but I have to side with others in that I think he\'s distance limited but more importantly he has run A LOT of races so I can\'t use him. Of course if there were no questions he wouldn\'t be 12-1 then would he?
Good luck.
Im just taking that dirt number for what it is.. the huge jump and him sustaining those numbers represents poly to me. if he ran first out career poly he probaly wouldve been much better (around an 8 or so to me) which would be MORE in line with his true development of his numbers. The lonely first out number has no indication whatsoever with his overall development cause it stands out as so slow. Even being first out at FPX a horse that were to improve SO MUCH going to poly wouldve bounced off the walls.. and he didnt which should tell us that hes slower on dirt. Hes right in line BUT those are poly efforts. Going into the Preakness on dirt hes a toss to me. I doubt the poly numbers would translate for him personally in this racing situation. just my opinion.
JBs 3 yo tops this year were:
a 2 at 8F and
a 2 going 9F this year!
His TOP of 0.25 last year was at 8.5F.
He is running completely in line no matter the distance and ALL of these efforts are a TOP that his pattern suggests him to run in the Preakness which is 9.5F.
Dont see where you guys are thinking he cant get the distance... u guys are looking at him with \"distance\" and dont realize that if it wasnt for Eskendereya, we would have a multiple stakes winner this year who isnt running his ultimate best against this crop at these distances.
On raw figures alone SS is currently (7:10pm eastern time friday) an 8/5 fave *LAL is 9/5*. Based on those odds, SS being co-4th fastest, and 2 weeks off a career top in here.. you guys could have him all u want even with a forward move. He would most likely need another top in here to win this.. doesnt make too much sense in a betting perspective.
Is anyone really surprised?? I said earlier in the week 9-5 and believe that is what he will be. Wise guy money will start taking the other prices and I doubt anybody is jumping up out of bed tomorrow to go abd get all the 8-5 they can get.
What is surprising here is LAL but Baffert has had a lot of succes in the Preakness (4 winners) and this is a pretty good horse. He will drift to 5-2 I predict and I don\'t see any value there either.
Playing for a price is not a sin. Playing for a price because you refuse to bet the best horse is.
There are exotics and multi race wagers to balance some of this out. I will not be in the win pool at 9-5. But I also will not be playing against Super Saver on ALL Tickets either.
and Paddy O\' is 8 to 1 3rd choice! HUGE prices underneath the 2 faves!
Not sure if you are interested in any facts, but practically half the Derby field moved up dramatically 2nd start out, and many of them did it over a similar surface. What I\'m trying to say is, how are you so certain the move-up was due to the surface change and not just normal 2yr old improvement?
Some examples:
Dublin improved 6pts
Paddy improved 4pts
Super Saver improved 4.5 pts
Jackson Bend improved 5 pts
Northern Giant improved 8 pts
Pleasant Prince improved 10 points moving to poly and then ran his lifetime top on dirt this year
Schoolyard Dream improved 6 points
Aikenite improved 5.5 points
Line of David improved 6 points
Sydney improved 7 points
HomeboyKris improved 7 points
Make Music For me improved 8 points
Amyway, I\'m sure he will finish out of the money now after such an in-depth study, but your reasons for discounting this horse do not add up.
How about First Dude, 1 length behind Pop in the BG and 4X the price. Pulling for SS though, as I\'m alive in the dd.....figured that was the only to get value on him.
TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure if you are interested in any facts, but
> practically half the Derby field moved up
> dramatically 2nd start out, and many of them did
> it over a similar surface. What I\'m trying to say
> is, how are you so certain the move-up was due to
> the surface change and not just normal 2yr old
> improvement?
>
> Some examples:
> Dublin improved 6pts
> Paddy improved 4pts
> Super Saver improved 4.5 pts
> Jackson Bend improved 5 pts
> Northern Giant improved 8 pts
> Pleasant Prince improved 10 points moving to poly
> and then ran his lifetime top on dirt this year
> Schoolyard Dream improved 6 points
> Aikenite improved 5.5 points
> Line of David improved 6 points
> Sydney improved 7 points
> HomeboyKris improved 7 points
> Make Music For me improved 8 points
>
> Amyway, I\'m sure he will finish out of the money
> now after such an in-depth study, but your reasons
> for discounting this horse do not add up.
those horses moved forward going from dirt to dirt or dirt to turf etc... What I am saying is that bc of the slow dirt effort he improved huge going to poly.. if the fpx dirt effort on dirt were to translate to poly then his first out on poly wouldve been much faster because of how huge he ran so early on poly. to me he wouldve run a much faster 1st out effort poly than what his dirt was. By running such a nice poly top really early and reacting only bc of rest (which we can prove in his pattern) i am saying that he took to poly much better than he would have to dirt.
A horse like Dublin who ran HUGE 3rd time out (ALL on dirt) and improved big like Caracortado bounced off the walls 2 times after the 1.5 effort a 5.5 and a 10. Compare that now to CAra...Dont you think with Cara, if that dirt effort were to mean anything, wouldve reacted much more than he did the 2 races after his poly top? He reacted only a couple points in 2 straight races and when he got about 6 weeks rest he ran another big one (something lets say Dublin didnt do in this example)! IF the first effort on dirt translated within his pattern I wouldve expected for Caracortado to bounce much more in those few races after his top cause of huge development and no rest. He didnt so imo i am taking that as an indication that he loves the poly much more than the dirt and still runs slightly worse off top poly efforts w no rest. This also tells me his next race on Poly should be pretty big since he will have plenty of rest from his last top poly effort.
also.. a majority of the time i see HUGE jumps and horses run consistent setting new top after decent rest are patterns with turf or poly horses. this situation coincides more with that angle more than dirt.
if he ran an 8 or 9 or so on dirt then those on poly and only bounced a few points each of those 2 races than set a new top it wouldve been in line perfectly with his pattern. with such a huge jump up i wouldnt think he could sustain that level unless he did get rest.. from poly top to top he had 3 months but the other off efforts coincided with very small reactions rather than huge bounces like Dublins 2yo line.
When a horse makes THAT much of a jump forward so fast it usually takes a lot of time to get back to that top or new top effort and they usually dont stay in line like Cara has done. Cara imo has done that bc his dirt effort was not part of his pattern as he runs slower on that surface and imo wouldnt have run at this top level on dirt. If it translated equally it wouldve imo looked much more like Dublin, Sidneys Candy or Homeboykris.
In today\'s Thoroughbred Times, Len Friedman states that there is only one horse he can toss in the Preakness. That horse is Jackson Bend!
Too funny.
I\'m going to key Paddy and SD to win. Will use Lucky and SS to either take 2nd or 3rd but not together. Will use AIK, JB, FD to take 2nd or third with them, and all the rest to take 3rd only. Will also play some tickets tossing SS and LAL completely.
So-
2,10 / 7,8 / 2,10 x 6 units
2,10 / 7,8 / 1,6,11 x 5 units
2,10 / 2,10 / 7,8 x 4 units
2,10 / 1,6,11 / 7,8 x 3 units
2,10 / 2,10 / 1,6,11 x 3 units
2,10 / 1,6,11 / 2,10 x 2 units
2,10 / 7,8 / 3,4,5,9,12 x 1.5 units
2,10 / 2,10 / 3,4,5,9,12 x 1 unit
Optional save with
7,8 / 2,10 / 2,10 x 1.5 unit
7,8 / 2,10 / 1,6,11 x 1 unit
7,8 / 1,6,11 / 2,10 x 1 unit
Can\'t say I\'m real likely to win, but I think it\'s the right way for me to play this race based upon my opinions and to make sure whatever I bet is offering some value. The combos with LAL and SS in the tri will be way over bet. If you can get a tri home without one of them you should be able to get some value. Without both and you will be sitting very good. If they both run in I pretty much don\'t care who else runs in with them it is likely to be an underlay, especially if it finishes SS,LAL/SS,LAL/Anything. So I\'ll just have to let the chalky combos beat me and live to swing another day if they do.
Good Luck to all.
thats hilarious lol.. i mean.. he ran TERRIBLE effort last out BUT to my personal opinion it was absolutely excused. he had plenty of rest, ran slop first out, and experienced things hes never done before.. dunno what else to say but im expecting a nice effort today and with that angle his nice efforts are right there at a nice price with his pattern somewhat concealed in the programs and DRF. funny stuff though lol good luck to u all going to be a great day!
Don\'t see what\'s funny about throwing out Jacksons Bend first. Simply horrible pick IMO.
Super Saver most likely winner on speed and pace. I was hoping his Derby win would be downgraded due to his \"perfect trip\". Unfortunately, the bettors realize that his great trip was not due to luck but a product of his flexibility, tactical speed and the services of Calvin Borel, all of which he retains today.
Lookin At Lucky is a class act but as the effects his troubled trips cannot quantified like ground loss and pace (to a certain extent), all we can do is draw a line through them and he would have to improve on his best figures to top SS. Possible but not probable. He still is a must include in the Exacta, keying SS, as well as Paddy O\' Prado. I will include Dublin and Pleasant Prince on the bottom of the Exacta but I think the probable pace scenario favors the speedy ones, especially if they show flexibility.
Good luck to all.
Bob
Super Saver and yawanna twist are by far the best looking in the post parade. Jackson Bend looks OK, but not great. Same with LAL. Did not get a chance to bet, but if I were betting, its a win bet at 2-1 on SS and and exacta box 5,6,8.
good luck to all.
Congratulations Baffert, Garcia, and the owners.
This horse deserves more respect than he has received around here. He again showed a lot of heart battling down the stretch.
Congrats to the horse and his connections but i thought he was unbettable at 2-1. If you found value there, you found it with the two that came in behind him.
WOOOHOOOOO!!! $6.60!!! LMFAO!! HEADED TO AC BOOOOOOYS!!!! $3200 to show will do just fyyyyyyyne =) A shame he couldnt win I wouldve had a $2 pick 3!
Congrats to all, especially the jock. Gotta love it. Looking forward to the fig and a paired effort.
Gotta feel for Dublin. And First Who? Ran Super Saver right into the ground. I don\'t know what Calvin was thinking chasing him that wide around the first turn, but for that horse (FD) to keep running, it was pretty impressive. Would love to see Jackson Bend in the Met Mile.
Agreed MO, First Dude ran a huge race. Dublin did well to finish 5th after that ridiculous start he had.
A very exciting race to watch, didn\'t have a dime on it but was rooting for Lucky down the stretch.
Well, it looks like the only factors I forgot to consider were the effects of their big Derby races for Super Saver and Paddy O\'Prado who bounced big time. Lookin At Lucky finally got the lucky trip he needed and was a game winner. Behind him it was longshot city with First Dude, Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist in close pursuit.
It does appear that Borel\'s ground saving tactics have made an impression on his fellow jockeys as nobody went more than 2 wide on the 1st turn and not much wider on the far turn - unusual for a large 12 horse field.
Though it didn\'t really make much difference, Borel seemed to go against the strategy he followed in the Derby where he would rate SS if the pace were hot. He apparently decided the pace would be soft and sent his horse at the start and pressed a very hot pace. Rating SS would not have made that much difference though, as his horse just didn\'t have it today.
Bob
I\'m wondering if this is this first time a 2 yo has won the Preakness? Anybody got stats on this sort of thing?
Northern Dancer was also foaled on May 27...
First Dude galloped out in front of the field. If he gets loose on the lead at Belmont and can slow the pace down, he will be very tough to run down.
MO wrote:
\"I\'m wondering if this is this first time a 2 yo has won the Preakness?\"
There\'s your tabloid headline, MO: \"Sandwich Maker Does It With A Piglet In Maryland\"
NYC--
So you\'re saying that after your big build up of JB, your only investment on the
win end was a $2 Pick 3?
Once again let me repeat -- show wagering is like riding a Moped or boinking a
fat woman -- no matter how much you enjoy it, why would you want to brag about it?
(And actually your bragging sometimes takes on the tone of an NFL end zone celebration).
But don\'t let me spoil your fun. Enjoy the time at AC with its wonderful
combination of Staten Island wannabe gangsters escaping from their parents\'
basement in their Daddylacs and the Chinese grandmothers enjoying a day away from
their bedbug infested tenements on the lower East Side.
Jackson Bend ran very big. In the early stages he seemed to be uncomfortable on
the inside, was tossing his head around, either resenting being inside of runners
or not reacting kindly to Mike Smith\'s restraint. I look forward to seeing Nick
(\"the Lord is my assistant trainer\") Zito bring this one back for Summer/Fall.
Speaking of restraint, watch Tyler Baze\'s wrestling match with Harissa in the
Blackeyed Susan. Also watch Harissa\'s gallop out after the wire. Will be looking
to bet this one back.
Another big day for Smart Strike, siring his first 3YO Classic winner and the
winner of the Dixie Stakes. (The double paid $117-- thank you Michael D. for the
gentle nudge on Strike a Deal). (Smart Strike is also the dam sire of First Dude).
Errata: LAL is Smart Strike\'s SECOND Classic winner; Curlin came first. (Thanx
Chuck).
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NYC--
>
> So you\'re saying that after your big build up of
> JB, your only investment on the
> win end was a $2 Pick 3?
>
> Once again let me repeat -- show wagering is like
> riding a Moped or boinking a
> fat woman -- no matter how much you enjoy it, why
> would you want to brag about it?
> (And actually your bragging sometimes takes on the
> tone of an NFL end zone celebration).
>
> But don\'t let me spoil your fun. Enjoy the time at
> AC with its wonderful
> combination of Staten Island wannabe gangsters
> escaping from their parents\'
> basement in their Daddylacs and the Chinese
> grandmothers enjoying a day away from
> their bedbug infested tenements on the lower East
> Side.
>
> Jackson Bend ran very big. In the early stages he
> seemed to be uncomfortable on
> the inside, was tossing his head around, either
> resenting being inside of runners
> or not reacting kindly to Mike Smith\'s restraint.
> I look forward to seeing Nick
> (\"the Lord is my assistant trainer\") Zito bring
> this one back for Summer/Fall.
>
> Speaking of restraint, watch Tyler Baze\'s
> wrestling match with Harissa in the
> Blackeyed Susan. Also watch Harissa\'s gallop out
> after the wire. Will be looking
> to bet this one back.
>
> Another big day for Smart Strike, siring his first
> 3YO Classic winner and the
> winner of the Dixie Stakes. (The double paid
> $117-- thank you Michael D. for the
> gentle nudge on Strike a Deal). (Smart Strike is
> also the dam sire of First Dude).
>
> Errata: LAL is Smart Strike\'s SECOND Classic
> winner; Curlin came first. (Thanx
> Chuck).
Richie, I used Strike a Deal in exactas, tris, and every pick they offered. I cashed not a penny. Good to see somebody cashed.
The key there was the lack of pace. He had the figures, and was only a little less than 50% to run back imo. He figured to get the good trip here with no front-runners in the gate (Matz had said they were going to try and rate Nic), and the price covered the layoff risk.
I invested almost $4500 into the race..
I did $500 win which lost.
3200 alone was a show wager which made me a little over 7000.
i played pick 3s and 4s for more which i lost but put in a $2 saver all with all with Jackson Bend just for the idea of being alive if it was bombs away which for a couple hundred was well worth it. My other tickets were more if they came out. Also played $50-$100 exactas with JB on top of a few horses.
I honestly do feel good about myself as my picks on here doing a show wager alone have made some really nice money over the last several months of posting them in these bigger races. There were few people (not even including Ragozin) who use these 2 products on the computer and in person that didnt even consider JB as a contender..P.eckhart came on here (who never posts) and said it was a horrible pick... so yes in this situation I actually feel pretty good about myself and the pattern analysis...especially when my SHOW paid just as much as LAL to WIN.. there are loads of people on bragging about THAT here and everywhere and that seems ok.. doesnt make too much sense to me... we all cashed just about the same ROI.
BTW, what do you guys think JB ran?
NYC--
I feel better knowing about that $500 on the schnozzle
Just hate to see someone put in all the legwork to come up with a live longshot
but then not have enough self confidence to back it up on the front end.
My apologies (also to Moped riders, large women, wannabe gangsters and Chinese
grandmothers everywhere).
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NYC--
>
> I feel better knowing about that $500 on the
> schnozzle
>
> Just hate to see someone put in all the legwork to
> come up with a live longshot
> but then not have enough self confidence to back
> it up on the front end.
>
> My apologies (also to Moped riders, large women,
> wannabe gangsters and Chinese
> grandmothers everywhere).
lmao i love it.. and this game. When I love a horse like THAT yes I will certainly do some kind of a win and exacta wager with him on top especially at 12 to 1 and higher. The ROI would be great if everything went as planned.
In reality, it doesnt though. Ive learned over the years that things ALWAYS do seem to happen when a horse runs his race (good and bad) and ive run into soooo many situations where a horse should have won but got some kind of Bozo wide trip and he loses BUT hes still in the money (check out LAL in last years BC cup.. he still paid %50 ROI which was a steal imo based on his huge number power in that field). Ive also seen situations where horses are overbet to win... win at lets say even money or 2 to 1 but still pay $4 to show because of that pool not being bet as much or longer shots coming out in the top 3 spots(the ROI for LAL yesterday was %90 in the show pool with a 3.80 payout!). There are many situations that happen but by picking spots in these bigger type races the ROI is much bigger than an average race and you essentially get paid more for your opinion to be correct.
Cheers to all and on to the Belmont!
why bet 500 win when u had the pik 3s going with him? no need to risk more.
the win and show wager were done earlier in an online account honestly thinking i would get about 15 to 1 or more at post time. JB was actually bet down a little bit from his ML odds and I just decided to leave the win bet as it was at post time. I decided later to do some pick 3s and exactas keying JB since I was up for the day (not counting the pending win and show wagers i did earlier on JB) and the odds were there.
NYC
There\'s nothing wrong with cashing, no matter what type of wager is made. As a point of historical interest, show wagering was an essential part of Sam \"The Genius\" Lewin\'s approach. Lewin was a legendary handicapper in the era before exotics. He recognized that racing luck often resulted in the tearing up of a lot of win bets even when you pick the best horse. Lewin developed a betting strategy that sought a return of capital even when his selection encountered bad luck. In general terms, the strategy can be summarized as follows:
5-1 or higher -- 50% to Win and 50% to Show (this assumes a $4.00 payoff to show which would get your money back)
3-1 to 9-2 -- 40% to Win and 60% to Place (a place price of $3.40 would get your investment back)
Even money to 5-2 -- 100% to Win
Under even Money -- No investment is justified
The range of odds listed above would, of course, depend on field size. The key is getting at least $3.40 to place or $4.00 to show.
Over the years, I have often used Lewin\'s approach when I place large bets. It gives you some margin for error should your horse have bad luck, but still gets you a fair percentage on the front end. If the price is short, however, you bet to win only. If it\'s too short, pass the race.
Albany
LAL looks to have run a top in the Preakness.Nice trip and ride by Martin Garcia, finishing stronly.Beyer in at 102 and with ground the fig looks like app neg -1/2.Trip handicappers murdered the price on LAL after they showed LAL\'s derby debacle all week long.
First Dude,big sucker,ran lights out.Jackson Bend workmanlike again.Tricky\'s Twist ran well.
Dublin,kinda the \"trip\" horse(Gomez again) on this occasion, making a fairly severe right turn from the gate,costing a few lenghts.Sideways moves on straightaways not calculated in ground loss, I believe, but thats why you have to watch races(Icebox another sideways case and possible winner with any type of clear late run in the derby)
SS did not get the perfect trip and was exposed as the common slug I thought he was going into the derby.The SS weight stuff all bull and only an issue because he lost. TAP and co went into the Preakness fairly confident with the way SS was doing physically.TAP was aware and respectful though of the \"silent\" bounce, which appeared to surface.
Two weeks rest an excuse for SS?? The winner,third and 5th,6th place runners all ran ok with 2 weeks.
NYRA ill with the Belmont coming up ho-hum with very little buzz.
Mike
Miff wrote:
\"TAP and co went into the Preakness fairly confident with the way SS was doing physically.TAP was aware and respectful though of the \'silent\' bounce, which appeared to surface.\"
I\'m curious about your source for this, Miff, as well as your source for your pre-Derby post about the morale in the TAP barn. The reason I ask is that your style in these posts resembles the style Bob Woodward uses in those near-instant insider histories he writes shortly after big events. It\'s a controversial style. Woodward gets away with it because he\'s Woodward.
Rich,
Don\'t know what you are referring to,hundreds of people know TAP and his team and speak to them very often, I\'m just one. No deep throat stuff,just people talking about the game.If there was something that they did not want known, no one would hear it.
Here are TAP\'s own words after the race, he also expressed the same during the week leading up to the race.
TAP:
\"Sometimes you can look at all the signs on the outside and while he's eating well and he's training well and acts enthusiastic and energetic, someone asked me when do you know if two weeks is enough time?" he said.
"Really, it's at about the three-eighths pole in the race when you really know. He ran well up to that point and when Calvin called on him for a response at that point he didn't have that extra gear on the day. It's not only the two weeks from the Derby to the Preakness, but it was also back in three weeks off the Arkansas Derby. So he had two very good races close together. It probably wasn't enough time for him to improve and put forth another top race."
Miff,
Here\'s an example. Before the Derby, you posted the following:
\"TAP barn devastated by what they felt was a great chance in Esky. Bad karma may be with TAP runners and plan to toss all out of most slots esp SS.\"
Meanwhile, one could read news reports that discussed what a great job the imperturbable TAP was doing keeping everything light and happy around the barn after Esky was pulled.
Does this sort of conflict matter? Not to me. You can\'t even enter a racetrack without hearing a hundred people trying to make you think they have some sort of insider access to racing people. It\'s kind of a racetrack currency that some people use as a replacement for the real thing.
It wouldn\'t bother me a bit if I could never hear another word of this \"inside stuff\" in my life. Everybody who goes to racetracks stumbles over this stuff--in large part because half the people who go to racetracks now are insiders.
But I think it might be a good idea if you were more clear about where you got this stuff--DRF, hot walker, etc. Just in case there is someone out there who makes the mistake of caring about this crap.
I like the idea of the structure but a HUGE key wagering a race where a horse sticks out for a show at some kind of value is to analyze the money in the show pools on each horse and project an idea of what the payout will be. THere are many times where a horse who is a favorite isnt even a favorite in the show pool. If there was a situation that came up where the horse i liked in the race is 5 to 1 but hes a favorite in the show pool i obviously stay away and wait for a better opportunity for a bigger show bet. Id just go with a small win instead or just stay away completely. The money in that show pool is way overlooked by many people and even though nothing is exact you can still get a great idea of who the faves are in that pool.
For bigger races I dont need to worry about that bc the ML is mostly king with the public. If the ML on Deans Kitten in the Derby was 3 to 1 instead of 50 to 1 I guarantee people wouldve bet the horse muuuuuuch more... the general public are suckers for it and thats where we thrive as thorograph players for value. I mean LAL paid almost DOUBLE the money to show bc the public falls victim to the sob stories on NBC about Borels derby ride, Pletchers 1st derby, etc. and think the horse will get at least 3rd for \"easy money\".. I see it myself everyday especially favorites.. people are clueless. Its redonkulous! But i love it!
Bartender asked me the other day right after the race why i liked JB and i said this exactly \"He had an on off on off pattern this year and with 6 weeks off his last top 3yo effort he was in line to his 2yo career top race which he had a good shot of getting thru today (no joke i really said this)\". And he was like \"OOOOK i see you play horses a lot\". He didnt know what to say haha I mean people have NO idea the powerful information we have. Its a great feeling!
Rich,
Did toss SS derby/preak,thought he was a slug, was wrong by one race, regardless of what anyone in the TAP camp said.Suggest you form your opinions and worry less about who knows what or whom.
No less than 3 people connected to Schoolyard Dream touted their horse all over NY going into the Preakness. Had to be a stone sucker to use this one race,optical illusion fraud.Inside information,please!
Mike
Miff wrote:
\"Did toss SS derby/preak,thought he was a slug, was wrong by one race, regardless of what anyone in the TAP camp said.Suggest you form your opinions and worry less about who knows what or whom.\"
I have no interest whatsoever in assessing your handicapping opinions, Miff. This is a message board. Everybody is ####ing great. My point was entirely about the incessant hints I see about inside information that I consider to be utterly worthless. And you are not the only person I\'m talking about. Some of the comments I\'ve read from others about the inner workings of the Baffert camp are so on-their-face idiotic that they threaten to blow the sun right out of the sky.
Now regarding Super Saver being a \"slug\": Miff: Super Saver is so much better at his job than most/all of us are at ours that it\'s ridiculous. And the same goes for Dublin and LAL and the other horses who come in for ridicule at the hands of people who like to use message boards to take nasty shots at the horses who lay it on the line on human command.
Rich,
Last post,my opinion on SS is mine, don\'t read it if you don\'t like it. As far as myself or others talking \"inside\"stuff that you object to, don\'t read it.The insights posted by someone re Baffy\'s MO on LAL was very perceptive, even though I did not agree.
You sound like someone getting waxed at the windows and misguiding your frustrations.
Mike
Miff wrote:
\"Last post,my opinion on SS is mine, don\'t read it if you don\'t like it.\"
Oh, OK. If I dislike something you have written, I will go back and unread it.
\"You sound like someone getting waxed at the windows and misguiding your frustrations.\"
Well, this is a tough game and I am not wanting for wax. But do you know what I do to relieve my frustrations after I get waxed? I go outside and walk around the block. And I keep on walking around the block until I hear a successful bettor call a Derby winner a \"pig\" or a \"slug.\" Then I tell the successful bettor to knock it off. Works wonders for me.