He may be coming off LAL in the Preakness. No decision has been made as Martin Garcia could land there. Which puts Garcia in a \"No Lose\" spot because if LAL gets a bad trip then LAL is just plain UnLucky. But if he gets a clean trip then he looks good and Gomez looks bad.
Unless of coursae Gomez flops over on Dublin for D.Wayne and he runs well. T Thompson currently has Dublin but if Pat Day can get YANKED for Jerry Bailey or Shane Sellers for Jerry Bailey then T Thompson can get yanked for Garrett.
A little controvery Preakness week never hurt and it involves the Top Jock, Da Coach and The Silver Haired Fox well that is just all the better.
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> He may be coming off LAL in the Preakness. No
> decision has been made as Martin Garcia could land
> there. Which puts Garcia in a \"No Lose\" spot
> because if LAL gets a bad trip then LAL is just
> plain UnLucky. But if he gets a clean trip then
> he looks good and Gomez looks bad.
>
> Unless of coursae Gomez flops over on Dublin for
> D.Wayne and he runs well. T Thompson currently has
> Dublin but if Pat Day can get YANKED for Jerry
> Bailey or Shane Sellers for Jerry Bailey then T
> Thompson can get yanked for Garrett.
>
> A little controvery Preakness week never hurt and
> it involves the Top Jock, Da Coach and The Silver
> Haired Fox well that is just all the better.
somone\'s crazy for sure...
If Gomez comes off for Garcia,Baffy is whacky. Garcia not in the same area code as Gomez on several levels.LAL\'s derby troubled trip from the rail easiest thing about that race to possibly predict.
Mike
miff Wrote:
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> If Gomez comes off for Garcia,Baffy is whacky.
> Garcia not in the same area code as Gomez on
> several levels.LAL\'s derby troubled trip from the
> rail easiest thing about that race to possibly
> predict.
>
>
> Mike
It\'s not just the last race. It\'s the race before (certainly not the horse\'s fault on that one), and the one before, and I think the one before that. Even if it\'s not Gomez\'s fault, per se, the horse needs another rider. Why should we expect the horse to not be reluctant at this point when Gomez is on his back, knowing he\'s about to go out and get pinched, slammed, or rammed into the rail?
This is the right call.
There is no circumstance where replacing Garrett Gomez with Matt Garcia is \"the right call\" not even close!
Mike
Are you confusing Matt Garcia with Martin Garcia?
Martin Garcia rides first call for Baffert now, right?
Rick,
Correct, Martin rides ist call for BAFFY.Got a great break when Baffy \"adopted\" him since he\'s an ordinary rider.Much the same when Kiaran Mc Laughlin did that with Fernando Jara some years ago. Many thought he would be a top jock,never understood that with Jara,or Martin Garcia for that matter.
Wonder what his record is when not riding Baffy Cadillacs.
Mike
I don\'t think Baffert\'s named a rider, but I\'d take anyone over Gomez for this horse at this time. Who\'s Dominguez or Leparoux on?
miff Wrote:
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> Rick,
>
> Correct, Martin rides ist call for BAFFY.Got a
> great break when Baffy \"adopted\" him since he\'s an
> ordinary rider.
Martin was interviewed by one of the racing channels (HRTV?) about how he ended up riding for Baffert, and he as much as admitted that he bugged the hell out of Baffert and kissed his butt until Baffert finally agreed to use him.
I\'ll bet Baffert just ate that [stuff] up...and what does he care if Garcia ends up being a bust -- there are 20 other jocks around whose lips uncontrollably pucker whenever Baffert walks by.
Rick,
Have you seen the stats Martin Garcia has when he rides for Baffert?
Rich Curtis Wrote:
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> Rick,
>
> Have you seen the stats Martin Garcia has when
> he rides for Baffert?
No, but I\'m sure they\'re very good.
The kid can ride, no doubt. I\'m still of the opinion that he needs Baffert more than Baffert needs him, though. No offense intended.
Baffy is a bit of a superstitious guy. Having sat next to him on a BC Day people were changing seats, boxes, sitting, standing,etc.
He thinks this horse is snakebit and so is Gomez on him. I mean he is probably changing his underwear but just not telling anybody.......
Dublin has been finishing weakly
Gomez\' strength is a strong finish.
This could move Dublin up.
Neutral at best for Lucky.
Gomez will be riding Dublin in the Preakness, but a heart transplant would be better!
LAL runs and gets Garcia,BRILLIANT! or \"someone else\". Why use Dominquez or Bejarano?
Mike
I think Dominguez already committed to First Dude, a semi live horse imo.
Bejarano is the biggest mystery.
He\'s one of the most talented riders in America yet he gets relatively crappy mounts.
This move is nuts for sure...let\'s see how posts get drawn. If this bunch is as ordinary as it looks and as you and others have stated, and if he draws well in comparison to Garcia and Borel, I will bet Gomez\'s determination to add insult to injury to Baffert. Absolutely. This is a Horse Gods thing.
It\'s hard to beleive but just a few years ago Martin Garcia was making my breakfast sandwich at the Stable Cafe in Pleasanton, CA. True story.
I\'m kinda rooting for him. He used to get the bacon crispy and perfect
It certainly would make a great story if Garcia wins.
I keep asking myself why? Why is Baffert running here? They can freshen him up and run in the Swaps followed by the Travers or Haskell.
Does Baffert know something we don\'t or perhaps they\'re afraid of Sydney\'s Candy in the Swaps? I\'m puzzled.
It\'s hard to beleive but just a few years ago Martin Garcia was making my breakfast sandwich at the Stable Cafe in Pleasanton, CA. True story.
I\'m kinda rooting for him. He used to get the bacon crispy and perfect.
Buck,
If he loses Baffy, he\'ll be making your breakfast sandwich again!
Mike
Miff wrote:
\"If he loses Baffy, he\'ll be making your breakfast sandwich again!\"
A serious question for you, Miff: Are you confusing Martin Garcia with Matt Garcia?
No!
Miff wrote:
\"There is no circumstance where replacing Garrett Gomez with Matt Garcia is \'the right call\' not even close!\"
When you made this post, Miff, which Garcia were you thinking about?
Rich,
I meant Martin(wrote Matt). Gomez maybe first or second strongest rider in the game today, a perfect fit for LAL who needs scrubbing(lacks quick).Martin Garcia not in same area code as a rider as Gomez.
Baffy looking to change his luck perhaps but taking much lesser rider, regardless of the Preakness outcome.Derby trip for LAL highly predictable from poison rail, nothing to do with the rider.
Mike
Miff,
I agree with you on the rider change. I wouldn\'t make it either. Gomez is a better rider than Martin Garcia. However, Garcia has a terrific record on the Baffert horses--a huge winning percentage and a nice fat flat-bet profit. In addition, Garcia gets plenty of rides from trainers who are not widely considered idiots. I\'m not sure Martin Garcia deserves to be ridiculed like this.
Jockeys don\'t win races. Horses do. Looking At Lucky is SLOW. He has one fast race on dirt, a classic syth to dirt - one and your done - pattern and yet you guys are all still blaming the jockey. The horse is a pig. I\'ll book all your bets on him in the Preakness. He\'s off the board.
MO Wrote:
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> Jockeys don\'t win races. Horses do. Looking At
> Lucky is SLOW. He has one fast race on dirt, a
> classic syth to dirt - one and your done - pattern
> and yet you guys are all still blaming the jockey.
> The horse is a pig. I\'ll book all your bets on him
> in the Preakness. He\'s off the board.
15-yard personal foul for gross misuse of the word pig.
Pigs don\'t win the Rebel the way Lucky did.
Agree 100% with Ill-bred.
I haven\'t seen that kind of poor classification of a quality horse since Miff called Tale of Ekati a \"slow rat\", which almost cost him 25k...... :)
Perhaps he was just living up to his name that day......
all this talk works for me though. looks like a square price Saturday of 2-1 on the eventual Triple Crown winner........now there\'s a new thread...........
MO Wrote:
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> Perhaps he was just living up to his name that
> day......
>
> all this talk works for me though. looks like a
> square price Saturday of 2-1 on the eventual
> Triple Crown winner........now there\'s a new
> thread...........
I hate to be one of those racing gods people but if that stuff is true he will not be winning any tri crowns..He ranks with Funny Cide and crew IMO.
That being said I think he will be very tough in the preakness but I\'m pretty certain the Belmont will get him..
SS\'s TC chance is related to the absolute lack of anything resembling a runner in the current TC group.May not have even won the derby without the perfect set up/trip and the very rough trip of a couple of others.
What astounds me is that a guy capable of making perfect, crispy bacon could make 115.
I think the Preakness is the more difficult of the 2. He\'s never run there whereas he loves Belmont, and he has to run the Preakness on 2 weeks rest.
but given this lack luster bunch, I think he will absolutely air ala Smarty Jones and then all he has to worry about is Ice Box, who won\'t change leads. Triple crown. Book it.
How much do you want to bet?
magicnight Wrote:
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> What astounds me is that a guy capable of making
> perfect, crispy bacon could make 115.
I\'m still LOL. Good one.
MO,
LAL isn\'t a pig or anything close. As for calling him lucky to win the Rebel, I didn\'t know that kind of trouble was considered luck.
are you giving me odds? or should I go to Vegas......LOL
let me know when he runs back to the Rebel and then runs a new top. Then we can talk. Right now, he\'s a complete toss. You gotta take a stand to make money. I took my stand BEFORE the Derby. I said LAL was SLOW. And I cashed a nice WP ticket on horse I said was a mortal lock to win the Derby. And I will cash on another mortal lock in the Preakness at 2-1. Now if you want give me odds of say 5-1, I\'ll bet YOU $500 straight up right now that not only does SS win, but LAL is off the board. Then we will see who\'s arm is in a sling.
after SS, aren\'t there quite a few horses in the same ballpark? just curious how many others you consider faster than LAL. i was thinking SS/LAL/+few/+few for my supers. thx.
That\'s a bad bet for anyone. I would be more likely to take the other side, that LAL hits the board and SS gets beat and I get 5:1
Leamas
LAL might very well beat SS as that horse can run. All he needs is a cleanish trip. He\'s been hard used the last few months, though.
Leamas
troubled trips like he has had often times take the heart out of a horse. They are creatures of habit. If he gets squeezed at the start, he might just spit the bit this time.
Agreed, but he always tries. If you look at how much he effectively spotted SS early and how much he made up by the finish line, he showed his heart and his talent. Same at SA, he came again after a major steadying. Maybe there\'s only so much heart in even a horse--you could be right, but I say he\'s got one more race in him and a horse is more likely to get a clean trip than a dirty one.
I believe strongly that he runs within a length of SS on either side if he doesn\'t get trashed again. I think SS and LAL will fill in the 2nd and 3rd spots or the 3rd and 4th spots of the super. I will probaly use PP, FD, YT and Dublin on top of those two in the tri for $10 and then concoct a super with LAL and SS in 2nd and 4th and 3rd and 4th for a $2 super, using a few others. I will only have $200 in the race, but I will try to beat both for the P-3 or P-4 as well.
Leamas
MO Wrote:
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> let me know when he runs back to the Rebel and
> then runs a new top. Then we can talk.
So if he doesn\'t do this, he\'s a pig?? Pigs don\'t win 3 GR1 races and finish 2nd by a head in the BC Juvenile. That was the point. You or anybody else would love to own this \"pig\".
> Right now, he\'s a complete toss. You gotta take a stand to
> make money. I took my stand BEFORE the Derby. I
> said LAL was SLOW. And I cashed a nice WP ticket
> on horse I said was a mortal lock to win the
> Derby.
We\'ve heard all about this selection you made. That race is over, others posted SS as the winner, and many more cashed the race. Enough already.
> And I will cash on another mortal lock in
> the Preakness at 2-1. Now if you want give me odds
> of say 5-1, I\'ll bet YOU $500 straight up right
> now that not only does SS win, but LAL is off the
> board. Then we will see who\'s arm is in a sling.
So something that you say is a mortal lock to happen, you want 5-1 odds?? Sounds like I should lay 1-9. I have plenty of money in my Twin Spires account, I\'ll stick with that. Go work on the ML for the Finger Lakes 3rd.
\"Triple Crown. Book it.\"
You need odds with that confidence? I thought you were laying it down. I guess not.
MO:
LAL: 5 GRADED stakes wins.
Rest of Preakness field combined: 5 GRADED stakes wins.
You may not like his chances Saturday, but LAL is not porcine.
Gee,I thought this was a Thoro-graph board, with opinions based on the performance figures. 7,6,6,6,3,0,5,3 does not translate to \"fast\" no matter how many races you win, no matter how you look at it. I try not to fall in love with a particular horse. It may look like I\'m in love with SS, but I am not. It\'s just that he is the best horse in the race. And he\'s not particularly fast either. But I think I have a pretty clear read on this horses pattern thanks to this site. I deliberately made my opinions known BEFORE Jerry posted his analysis, to see if my interpretation matched his. I was pleased when I saw Jerry\'s analysis of both the Derby and Preakness. I had (finally) learned how to interpret the figures.
And so this is how I have come to my opinion of Looking At Lucky, politically incorrect as it may be. Sorry if I offended anyone.
And BTW, I don\'t think asking for odds on ANYTHING - MOTAL LOCK OR NOT - is inappropriate for ANY gambler. If you were on the other end, you\'de want to get as much as possible too. Besides, no body is going to lay $2500.00 against my $500.00 because, realistically and objectively my chances are pretty good. I can see why you would only offer me 1-9. So I\'ll pass. Hope you cash big.
See my post above on his Triple Crown call...big hair, small hat.
And he\'s no pig either!
Leamas
MO,
If you use sheets and are not taking into account that synthetic numbers are almost always slower than dirt numbers then you need to start. You think it\'s just a fluke that LAL\'s only dirt number other than the KD is signifigantly faster? You cannot compare the two as if they are the same. Thats why Caracortado is a big guess this weekend. Nobody....i mean Nobody knows for sure what kind of number he\'ll run first time dirt.
I do understand that synth figs are slower than dirt figs, that they are closer to turf figs. BUT, TG has that sire profile feature which says that LAL\'s sire (as Sydney\'s Candy\'s sire) preferred or at least ran faster on synth.
I also understand the stats provided by Jerry regarding the \"one and you\'re done\" angle, a profile that suits LAL. The whole synth thing is still evolving for sure, and I am certainly open to schooling from anyone knowledgeable on this subject (or others) posting here, but I think there is now enough data available to make reasonable conclusions based on past performance.
Taking into account LAL\'s troubled trip in the Derby, we all have to make a judgement call on how many lengths he lost and how much faster/better he may have run. Based on his Santa Anita Derby, his KY Derby looks like an improved effort.But was it?
If I were handicapping him in any other race and his name was Bay Colt, I would give him credit for losing 3-4 lengths because of the trouble. That means he still gets beat by 3-4 in the Derby. This justifies (to me) my interpretation of the horse\'s ability. He\'s not going to run any faster than a 3 in the Derby and he didn\'t. And if he runs faster than a 3 in the Preakness, it won\'t be a jump back to the 0 in the Rebel, but more likely a 2. Maybe a 1, which won\'t be good enough to win. And at short odds in all 3 slots facing a faster horse who will be the favorite and likely winner, all the guessing and hoping that LAL will return to his Rebel will be at great risk for very little return other than bragging rights. Like I said earlier, you have to take a stand to make money and when LAL pairs his Rebel and then pairs that figure next out (back to back 0\'s), then we\'ll talk about him being a fast horse. He\'s a May foal and has room to develope, but not on 2 weeks rest.
BTW, those 3\'s LAL ran were 3 3/4. What if LAL\'s line ran like this:
7,6,6,6,4,6,0,5,4???
Wouldn\'t that make the Rebel look like a fluke?
Based on his sire profile he should be no faster on dirt. Based on his pattern, he has to get back to the 3 first, and that won\'t be fast enough to hit the board.
MO Wrote:
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He\'s a May foal and has room to develop, but not on 2 weeks rest.
MO:
I agree with most of your analysis, but given LAL\'s success as a 2YO
I do not think the late foal date is a factor here.
appreciated.
Brutal week and Preaknees for this guy. Gets essentially not invited back on Lucky. Goes to Dunlin who draws brutal then takes a righthand turn from the gate.
With Belmont coming up his phone might resemble Maytag Repairman. He did pickup Blame and with LAL winning he picked up Blame.......
I know he picked up blame but what horse did he ride?
Leamas