i say yes...she\'s coming off the 3rd and 4th best figs of her career, pairing up, and would be third off the layoff...at race time it would be 10 months since her career top in the haskell, enough recovery time, no?? asmussen and jackson should be chomping at the bit to face z under these circumstances...rachel has already won on a synthetic, what better way to faceoff and win than on z\'s turf...sure there are cons, just feel this is THE SPOT!!!! thoughts.....
Fear of losing should be out of Jackson and Asmussen\'s system. Fear of losing to Zenyatta might still be another level.
In this idea\'s favor, Hollywood seems to be the most front-runner friendly of the Cali synths.
Would be a bold move.
But very unlikely given their stated opinions that Rachel is not back (despite what the speed figs are showing).
To me theres no reason for RA to go out west. She will be pointed accordingly towards races that will prepare her for BC Day which will be here in the east at Churchill Downs on dirt. RA wouldn\'t gain anything by running synthetic.
From what I see it makes sense for Z to run out there keeping her comfortable with what she has always done even if its just for a few months for just one start.. they can ship her back east at the end of delmar meet or even for saratoga.. run a one prep or 2 preps on dirt and then BC Day. While that is set for Z they can try to continue improving RA towards her top efforts on dirt.. seems to me its best to wait and then meet in a prep just prior to the BC... maybe the Woodward?
Another interesting idea.. since Monmouth Park is running this great season 3 days a week maybe they can meet in the Haskell? With the projected quality racing coming this season it would add the cherry on top to get them to run together that day.. the race takes place in August and they will both have perfect rest after their next starts going into it. Im sure Monmouth would probably raise the Haskell purse to at least to $2 Million for it to happen too.
Either way they will eventually meet in the Classic so I wouldnt go out of my way in this case as that decision will not make sense for RA to go west.. doesnt seem to me like it would do anything to help her along the way.
Allow me to be the first to say that unless they have invented a time machine those two won\'t be running against each other in the Haskell.
The Haskell is for Three year olds so they won\'t be able to do that. I\'m not sure what distance the Iselin is so that could be an alternative. For the same reason that Rachel should not ship to Synth (possible track disadavantage), Z should not ship to Monmouth. That track is extremely speed favoring.
whoooooooooops =) well u gys know what i mean.. some kind of race at monmouth.. the Iselin goes 9F! That would work for me!
jerry....should rachel try zenyatta on the poly....my feeling, if rachel pops to a neg3 the next race, let\'s say, in the ogden phipps, isn\'t it a waste of an effort if it\'s not against zenyatta...
Does anybody else besides me have trouble with Rachel getting negative 1\'s in her last two races (roughly) and them being \"scored\" as her 3rd and 4th best races?
TGJB,
How \"tricky\" were the variants on those days? The connections obviously think the horse isn\'t right and many people who have seen a lot of horse races over the years, also don\'t think she is right. Zardana jumps \"way up\" and beats her, then the Mott horse jumps \"way up\" and beats her? After the 1st race, I thought maybe you were right when you talked about Zardana running huge and if she hadn\'t done the jump up, Rachel would have won by 12 and nobody would be questioning her. But it happened AGAIN. HArd to believe this is another jump up.
If the connections believed she really ran that fast, they would not be using the words they are using with her and would not be as cautious as they are being.
I\'m kinda with jimbo here. Rachel just isn\'t the same racehorse as last year.
Last year, she blows both these fields away.
Yes, her next out is 3rd on the layoff, but she\'s really been all out in both efforts. She\'s just not sharp enough physically to take on Quality Road or Z right now. I could be wrong.
As far as Z, she\'s probably sitting on a pretty good race also. If you subscribe to the theory that her Apple Blossom was nothing more than a workout.
I do think Rachel really needs to throw a big one next time. I\'d like to see her win in commanding fashion.
If she stays in the same area she\'s been in the last 2 races, she\'s gonna struggle against Z at 9f. I\'m not seeing Rachel get 10 furlongs in the Classic against the horses likely to be there.
figurewise, don\'t you think she\'s sitting on a neg 3 the next out....wouldn\'t that beat zenyatta...i think jerry has always said rachel\'s numbers are superior to z....i feel it\'s better to act, then react...meaning, better to assume rachel can get to neg 3 next out against z, then waste a bullet against another field....if she runs the neg 3 and it\'s not against z, then you have a greater chance of bouncing all the way from neg 3 to zero against zenyatta...the woodward is a good case study of this where rachel ran a neg 4 in the haskell and then bounce to zero....visually, i thought rachel showed a ton of heart to finish out both of her races this year...only been using thorograph for two years...trying to learn something here...thanks for the replies...
For what it\'s worth I think these figs are dead right. The two horses that beat her are no slouches and their figs fall right in line.
For whatever reason Rachel isn\'t switching leads on cue this year. She\'s been late to do that in both her races. She\'s about 175lbs bigger than last year.
\"For what it\'s worth I think these figs are dead right. The two horses that beat her are no slouches and their figs fall right in line\".
MJ,
RA TG figs faster than all other reliable data, point+ or so.Very strong example of also having regard for what happens on the racetrack, numbers aside.
Mike
Miff wrote:
\"RA TG figs faster than all other reliable data, point+ or so.\"
Would you please give me a list of \"all other reliable data\" so that I will know what you are referring to?
Rich,
Thats a matter of opinion. For example, many use Bris figs and others like that, which I feel are garbage, but others swear by.
I do not think that anyone makes BETTER figures than Mark Hopkins(Beyer Speed Figs) TG and possibly Rags, which I have never really studied but see often.Think these guys get it \"right\"(no such thing really) a high percentage of the time.
Mike
Miff wrote:
\"...Mark Hopkins(Beyer Speed Figs) TG and possibly Rags, which I have never really studied but see often.Think these guys get it \"right\"(no such thing really) a high percentage of the time.\"
Thank you. What % of the time would you say these guys differ?
Over a 3 month comparative study,they differed by more than the value 2 points 18% of the time.Strangely on \"big\" races they only differed 9% of the time.
Variant was the main culprit in the differences,not ground loss.
Mike
Thank you. Where does Beyer fit in that stat?
Here\'s where I\'m going with this, Miff:
Two sheet points is a serious difference. Look at results charts and start playing around with two sheet points worth of difference and you will be rewriting the hell out of the results.
Take TG, Rags, and Beyer. What % of the time will all three of them agree on the numbers?
If all three of them do not agree, at least one of them is necessarily wrong.
And if all three of them do in fact agree, we still do not have anything like a guarantee of three-way accuracy. All we have is a prerequisite for it.
MJ,
Take a closer look at Zardana\'s sheet.
Do you really think her win over Rachel and the associated figure, \"falls right in line\" with her other figures? (a five point top or something of that order)
What sort of \"line\" could Zardana possibly have? She finshed just ahead of Rachel in one race and 13 lengths behind her in the next. There is nothing even remotely resembling that sort of reaction in her prior racing history, so the race before was obviously a huge new top for her and not \"in line\" with anything she has previously done.
Jimbo-- in answer to your earlier question, no, neither figure was tough to do, either within the race or within the day.
well, rachel\'s connections may have wasted a bullet today...thought back in may when i started this thread she was sitting on a neg 3...probably got it..
the connections figured rachel needed to get her confidence back, but it was they who were lacking confidence in rachel...jb said asmussen uses thorograph numbers to manage his horses...he messed up on this one....she should have went to the polycrap and end these debates on the racetrack...hopefully next time...they\'ll meet, but probably a wolfson-enhanced filly will wind up beating these two...
First of all, Asmussen uses Ragozin except for Parra\'s horses, where I advise using ours-- I was unwilling to match the ridiculously low (and I\'m not kidding) prices that Friedman charges \"clients\", which is essentially to charge them the same thing they charge bettors for sheets, plus throwing in any data they need for their horses, stake noms, or horses they are considering buying, for free. The obvious intent is to be able to say they have big name horseman clients in order to get some credibility, since they have no history of succesfully recommending purchases, let alone one that compares to ours.
But you\'re right more than you know about Steve, and lots of other trainers. He would say \"I want to run him against weaker to get his confidence up\", and I would say \"You mean you want to get YOUR confidence up\".