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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: mjellish on May 05, 2010, 02:33:29 PM

Title: Carryovers at Churchill
Post by: mjellish on May 05, 2010, 02:33:29 PM
Anyone thinking about taking a swing.  The Pick 6 looks tough, even if you single the Baffert horse, which I think a lot of people are going to do and I\'m not sure that is going to turn out.  But it\'s probably going to be 2.5 - 3 M$ pool.  I\'m going to at least make an attempt to sort it out.

Super 5 and end to the pick 6 is a 12 horse MCLM 10,000.
Title: Re: Carryovers at Churchill
Post by: ROBERT49 on May 05, 2010, 02:54:32 PM
i\'ll be taking a shot it. i think the 1A Concert has a shot to upset the baffert horse.there is also a flyer i will be using in the 10th-the 8 horse Visitor who looks awful, but the jockey/trainer combo has produced a pretty big roi over the last year, he\'s cutting back in distance, and dropping 2 classes.  just started looking at the pp\'s, so i have work to do.
Title: Re: Carryovers at Churchill
Post by: girly on May 05, 2010, 03:06:51 PM
Rock on dude! After the pissing contest I just read that would be refreshing! I rarely post anymore because I truly don\'t know \"\'nothin \'bout horseracin!\" but I have been following the threads and enjoy the conversations very much,usually. I really have learned a lot from you all.
By the way, if anyone wants to put some of their earnings into a non for profit donation for tax purposes, I know of a worthy cause. An agency in Upstate that uses retired and rescued horses for therapy for children. Does really good work for the horses and people. PM me if interested and I\'ll get the info/website for you to check out for yourself.
After the weekend, a twelve horse field sure looks less daunting!
Title: Re: pissing in the snow
Post by: girly on May 05, 2010, 03:35:28 PM
Sorry, Sekra-I couldn\'t resist. I don\'t think you have been crowing so much as  defending your point of view, but man, people get a little testosterone going and watch out! There was another thread a while back, not you I think, but I had an image of 10 guys in the snow seeing who could go the farthest! Anyway, kudos to you and all who have the balls enough to put their picks and thoughts out on the line for all to see!
Title: Re: pissing in the snow
Post by: smalltimer on May 05, 2010, 03:36:42 PM
I asked my Mom not to post on here.  Sorry   lol
Title: Re: pissing in the snow
Post by: girly on May 05, 2010, 03:39:21 PM
Ha Ha! I know, right? It\'s like suddenly realizing your Mom can see all your Facebook posts! Play nice, Boys!
Title: Re: pissing in the snow
Post by: smalltimer on May 05, 2010, 03:44:27 PM
My wife posted that when it comes to sex, I should be arrested for assault with a dead weapon.  My Mom seen that...I haven\'t heard the end of it and I\'m really tired of her tips on the rejuvenation process.  Ugh.....My Mom\'s 88 years old.
Title: Re: pissing in the snow
Post by: girly on May 05, 2010, 03:47:53 PM
As a Mom, It made me laugh, but this has veered way off-Okay, back to handicapping-
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: Ill-bred on May 06, 2010, 06:58:20 AM
They\'ve scratched #7 Spiritus in race 6.

I was going to single this horse.
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: Lost Cause on May 06, 2010, 07:54:28 AM
The #5 looks interesting there ...back on dirt today
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: sekrah on May 06, 2010, 12:19:51 PM
The 5 could get there.  I like the 2.  The 6 is also interesting.
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: Lost Cause on May 06, 2010, 12:25:19 PM
Nothing more frustrating than being out the first leg...Good luck to everyone who made it through the first leg..
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: Ill-bred on May 06, 2010, 12:38:01 PM
I had the 3 to start the pick six (very small ticket) and he ejecetd the rider at the start.  lol
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: sekrah on May 06, 2010, 12:55:51 PM
Yikes a winner.   Try again.

7th race -  I used the 6 in my P6, but checking the pools, the 8 is being completely ignored in the exotics and I might use him here.   Looks to be heading back towards her 3yo numbers, maybe Romans can get this one to fire first time out of his barn.
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: sekrah on May 06, 2010, 01:01:21 PM
This game is easy.
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: TreadHead on May 06, 2010, 01:28:33 PM
You are on fire brah!  Keep going pls  (I like 2 and 9 here)
Title: Re: Carryovers at Churchill
Post by: Ill-bred on May 06, 2010, 02:17:16 PM
I hope ROBERT49\'s 8 horse wins here in the last leg of the pick 4, cuz I tried (unsuccessfully) to beat Baffert, and now the 8 is my only money maker.

Live to 1 8 10 12 in p4...
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: sekrah on May 07, 2010, 02:35:13 AM
I needed the 1, 7, or 12 in the last leg.   Beaten by a Foley debuter.  What a boner.
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: Rick B. on May 07, 2010, 12:29:46 PM
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Beaten by a Foley debuter.

Not just a \"Foley debuter\".

A non-descript, sold-for-$1000-as-a-yearling Illinois-bred Foley debuter. A horse you might not give a 2nd look if he were debuting in a MCL3500 at Beulah.

134 P6 tickets were sold with this horse -- and the other five winners -- on board. 134!!

Forget more stringent testing of racehorses -- I want these winning Pick 6 bettors to be piss-tested, immediately.

Then -- I want whatever they are using.
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: Lost Cause on May 07, 2010, 01:07:19 PM
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Beaten by a Foley debuter.
>
> Not just a \"Foley debuter\".
>
> A non-descript, sold-for-$1000-as-a-yearling
> Illinois-bred Foley debuter. A horse you might not
> give a 2nd look if he were debuting in a MCL3500
> at Beulah.
>
> 134 P6 tickets were sold with this horse -- and
> the other five winners -- on board. 134!!
>
> Forget more stringent testing of racehorses -- I
> want these winning Pick 6 bettors to be
> piss-tested, immediately.
>
> Then -- I want whatever they are using.


That horse had to be played in that field..  He was working really well and Julien was up.  The biggest thing was who he was running with ....a bunch of proven losers. He doesn\'t know how much they paid for him.
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: Rick B. on May 07, 2010, 02:07:31 PM
Lost Cause Wrote:
 
> That horse had to be played in that field..  He
> was working really well and Julien was up.  The
> biggest thing was who he was running with ....a
> bunch of proven losers. He doesn\'t know how much
> they paid for him.

You could be right, but it\'s not like they sent it in on the win pool; if he came back, like, $6.00 to win, I\'d say, \"OK, the whole world knew, and I simply didn\'t see it.\"

Another possibility is the one that a friend of mine sent to me after reading my previous post -- that this race was everyone\'s \"head scratcher\", and it was most likely the big \"spread / buy\" race, on many, many tickets.
 
Wouldn\'t it be great to see how the winning tickets were constructed? (Yeah -- \"Over my dead body\", some of you are shouting right now. Like asking for the Coca-Cola recipe.)
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: sekrah on May 07, 2010, 02:45:38 PM
Can\'t use every horse in the race.   I didn\'t play a huge ticket.. 3x2x1x1x2x3, but I found it tough to throw this one in.   The workout log doesn\'t look particularly impressive to me.   Something went amiss with him back March.   Foley has had only 4 of his last 20 debuters run figs fast enough to win here and this one wasn\'t exactly impressively bred.

If I were to take a 4th in that race it probably would of definently been the 3.  But if I were to increase my ticket size anymore, it probably would have been on a different leg.

Tough race.
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: Rick B. on May 07, 2010, 04:33:06 PM
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can\'t use every horse in the race.   I didn\'t play
> a huge ticket.. 3x2x1x1x2x3,

Can\'t use every horse in the race...or didn\'t want to?

3x2x1x1x2x12 = 144 combos, or $288.

I would have loved to have come up with a ticket that small, that I felt had a real shot.

Not to bicker...everyone\'s risk tolerance is different, but the more I \"Monday Morning QB\" this one, the more it looks like a fair number of people bought the finale.
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: sekrah on May 07, 2010, 05:02:14 PM
I\'m not a big Pick 6 guy.   I only played because of the huge carryover, I might have took a shot at no more than a half-dozen Pick 6s all of last year.   I\'ll go after large pick 4 carryovers (and $$ added) aggressively, but my main style is finding races with bombers who can hit the board and attacking the trifectas.  Like in the 7th race yesterday with the 8.
Title: Re: Churchill Thursday carryovers
Post by: bellsbendboy on May 08, 2010, 06:47:53 AM
I did not play the sequence however I looked at the charts.  Foley, who has won a bazillion (over 300) races at Churchill trained Champali the sire of the winner.  The dam had a decent future for Harvey Vanier a number of years back before getting hurt and her dam was a stakeswinner.

The horse worked in 47 and change at the Fairgrounds so he could run at least a bit.  Tough to take a firsttimer at the bottom, and without looking at the others, this gelding was at least very possible.