There\'s been some questions about track maintenance and weather at the Derby. As far as track maintenance goes, they floated the track for races 1-4. Between races 4 and 5 they switched to harrowing the track right after a race, then sealing it again before the horses came out from the paddock for the next races. They repeated this process off and on during the rest of the day and if I am remembering it right through all the bourbon I think they just sealed it between at least 1 of the later races, no harrowing. The rain stopped about an hour before the derby and the weather actually broke heading into the race, with the sun beginning to peak out. There was a steady wind for most of the day that went mostly with the horses on the backstretch and against them down the stretch. Before the Derby, however, this wind abruptly died down as the weather broke, but there were still gusts that continued just as strongly in the same direction as before.
The rail looked pretty bad on Friday. It also didn\'t seem very good on Saturday, but I think that is a little misleading. Calvin is the only jock who actually seems to get his horses right down on the rail. Most of the other riders are actually at least 1/2 path out from where he rides. Not sure if that makes a difference or not. But watch Calvin\'s ride on Super Saver and Atta Boy Roy and then compare these to the other jocks. You will see the difference.
Regardless, as far as the race itself goes, Super Saver got a dream trip from Calvin in the derby. And I was wrong about SS not getting the 1 1/4. He seemed to get it just fine although he got passed on the gallop out by PDP. PDP also got a pretty good trip as far as saving ground goes. Ice Box got stopped cold twice, had to alter course one other time and was much wider than the above two. He showed pretty good athleticism to regain his momentum quickly and keep coming. I wouldn\'t be surprised if Ice Box comes back with the best TG fig in the race. If he goes in the Preakness he\'s going to take a lot of money based on the trip he had, which has been well publicized. He\'s not changing leads though, and he used to. This would seem to indicate to me that something isn\'t quite right with him. Word I heard from three different people before the race was that Ice Box was hurt, but he sure didn\'t run like it. My clocker loved his work but hated his gallops, so I had mixed opinions about this horse heading into the race. LAL had a horrible trip and I think it\'s safe to say that this race is pretty much a toss for him. He did well to get up for 6th, but these bad trips are beginning to be a habit for him.
Heading into the race, I figured the pace would be quick enough to ensure that no horse went wire to wire and this would help set up the mid-pack stalkers and closers. After Lucky drew the rail, the way I handicapped the race I made either Paddy or Devil May Care the most likely winners. I rated Ice Box, Lucky and Awesome Act as second best with a slight chance to win. When handicapping any race I\'m always trying to play the percentages, and given the way he ran in the ARK derby and what I knew about him I didn\'t think Super Saver would get the 1 1/4 or win. But I knew the horse was doing better than he ever had been, he seemed to really like Churchill, and after he drew so well, and especially after I saw Calvin bring Atta Boy Roy home, I gave SS a decent a chance to hit the board. So I decided to include him in my plays, but I did not elevate him to the status of Win Candidate. I gave him about the same chance as Sidney, whom I thought had a shot for a minor award as long as he rated and handled the soup. I rated Mission Impazzible about an equal chance as those two given the way he was working and that he had the right stalking style. I also decided that given the early pace projection just about any closer would have a chance of grinding up into the super or the bottom spot of the tri. So I threw DK and MMFM into a group that included DUB and STV, as well as American Lion (fastest horse) and Discretely Mine (should have handled the slop and had a sheet that said he had a chance to improve). The only stone cold tosses for me were therefore CON,LOD,NP,JB,HBK & BT.
I hit the Woodford the race before when I keyed General Quarters in 1st and 2nd position in some $20 Tri\'s, so I upped my bet a bit on the Derby and bet it like this:
$300 Tri PDP,DMC/PDP,DMC/LAL,IB,AA =$1800
$200 Tri PDP,DMC/PDP,DMC/MI,SS,SC =$1200
$100 Tri PDP,DMC/PDP,DMC/DUB,AL,STV,DM,DK,MMFM =$1200
$200 Tri PDP,DMC/LAL,IB,AA/PDP,DMC =$1200
$100 Tri PDP,DMC/LAL,IB,AA/LAL,IB,AA =$1200
$50 Tri PDP,DMC/LAL,IB,AA/MI,SS,SC =$900
$30 Tri PDP,DMC/LAL,IB,AA/DUB,AL,STV,DM,DK,MMFM =$1080
$10 Super PDP,DMC/PDP,DMC/LAL,IB,AA/LAL,IB,AA =$120
$5 Super PDP,DMC/PDP,DMC/LAL,IB,AA/MI,SS,SC,DUB,AL,STV,DM,DK,MMFM =$270
$5 Super PDP,DMC/LAL,IB,AA/PDP,DMC/LAL,IB,AA =$60
$2 Super PDP,DMC/LAL,IB,AA/PDP,DMC/MI,SS,SC,DUB,AL,STV,DM,DK,MMFM =$108
$5 Super PDP,DMC/LAL,IB,AA/LAL,IB,AA/PDP,DMC,LAL,IB,AA =$120
$3 Super PDP,DMC/LAL,IB,AA/LAL,IB,AA/MI,SS,SC,DUB,AL,STV,DM,DK,MMFM =$324
SAVER $100 EX LAL,IB,AA/PDP,DMC =$600
As you can see, I completely missed the race. Classic example of right horses, wrong order. Although I have to say that it\'s almost better for me that Super Saver won because if you take him out of it I may have lost out on a good chunk of money when IB got up to nip PDP on the wire.
Congrats to all that liked Super Saver and bet him with enough gusto to win a chunk of change. I really thought he was an underlay based on what I thought his actual chances of winning were, but there\'s nothing wrong with cashing on an $18 horse. And maybe it\'s just me but I thought almost EVERY horse in this race seemed to go off as an underlay to win unless you liked AL at better than 20-1 as the fastest horse. I was really surprised that PDP went off as low as 12-1 because I didn\'t think he was that easy of a horse to dope out. I really liked him and was expecting to get 20-1 or so.
Tough weekend for me overall. I went 2/5 on Oaks day. I hit a win bet on Danzon in the 5th and cashed a $20 Tri bet for $7900 when I keyed Asphalt in the American. Then I blew all that and then some on the Oaks when I keyed Jody Slew at a bazillion to one in the Oaks to take 1st, 2nd, 3rd in the Tri, and I bet $1000 to win on her although I had singled her on a $10 Pick 4 ticket that was alive as well (boy that was fun though).
Anxious to see what the figs come back at for the Preakness. Historically a horse like SS with good tactical speed usually runs well at Pimlico and sometimes even moves forward, but I don\'t think any of these stand out well enough to make up for a bad draw or bad race set up. Should be fun to handicap and debate on the board.
Again, congrats to Sek, Cov and everyone else I heard give a strong endorsement to SS on this board.
I also keyed on Paddy 1st-2nd.
Given my belief that IB actually was best on the day, I cannot complain about the narrow miss.
But what is your take on Paddy\'s subtle trouble and how much it cost him at the wire?
I am still on board this horse.
I dunno what my take is on Paddy and his trouble.
My take on trouble in general is that it is ok to make up an excuse for a horse now and again because of trouble, but the good ones usually still find a way to win. When they don\'t, I begin to downgrade them (see Dublin).
Given that this was a 20 horse field and Paddy made it to the inside from the 10 post and saved a lot of ground, I think that offsets whatever trouble he had moving into the stretch. I don\'t think you could have hoped for a much better trip than he got. As I said, SS got a perfect trip. And given that, I\'m not convinced Paddy would have caught SS. I think IB would have caught him, but the early pace set him perfect for his late run, and we don\'t really know how SS would have responded if he was headed in deep stretch. My hope would be that they skip the Preakness and try Paddy in the Belmont.
My only regret on the day was picking horses that ran from wide PPs. Even though I had questions about SS I still keyed him over MI, DMC, AA, and even Dean\'s Kitten. This was a change from my original selections that I posted.
I wanted to take out any speed horses or horses that looked like they needed to be close to win. I know that SS showed this running style, but I figured that Calvin and the fact that he won over the strip along with all of the other percentages in his favor would trump that. At least I was right about one thing.
I was completely wrong about Ice Box. He looked like he shut down in the FLa Derby gallop and over the past 8-10 years only 2 horses have run new tops in the Derby with 6 weeks rest. That was enough for me to toss. Should have reconsidered based on post position.
I figured POP to be up close in a similar style to his run in the Bluegrass so he surprised me a bit even though I knew he had been training well.
What happened to Awesome Act?? He got a clean break and LePeroux sent him to the rail after that he was so far out of it I wasn\'t able to see what happened.
Gotta love the races! Pleasant Prince in the Preakness?????
AA came out of the race lame.
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/May/04/Awesome-Act-lame-after-Kentucky-Derby.aspx
Just curious Mr Jellish. Do you hyperventilate as they\'re going into the gate? Just looking at your wagers makes me hyperventilate. I would hate the be the count room master when you hit one of those. MERCY!
No, I don\'t hyperventilate. I hoped to win the derby this year but I didn\'t expect to. I told the group I was with I thought I had a 20% chance to cash. But that\'s how I play this race. I draw a couple of hard lines in the sand and bet my opinions as strongly as I can. I may only hit once or twice a decade, but when I hit it is usually big. I figure I can invest 10k a year, be right once every 15 years and still be way up. I\'ve actually done much better than that, so while it is always disappointing not to win I don\'t let it discourage me in the least. You can beat the derby, but you can\'t win it every year. And you don\'t have to bet a ton of money to do it. You just have to scale your bets correctly. What I do is layout a spreadsheet with my contenders and the combos I want to play. I then try to project what those tri\'s will pay, come up with my budget and layout the bets accordingly while keeping in mind which horses and combos I like more. What I like more is both a function of how likely I think something is to come in AND what I think it is going to pay.
That\'s something that doesn\'t get talked about a lot on this board, but how you structure a bet is often as important as how you handicap a race. I\'ve seen some good handicappers lose a lot of money simply because they couldn\'t figure out how structure their bets. Some people spread out by betting many combinations hoping to increase their chances to cash something. They are in effect hedging with a lot of bets. My father was one of these people. He usually couldn\'t tell me if he\'d won or lost the Kentucky Derby until about 1/2 hour after the results were posted and he had checked his tickets 3 or 4 times. Some people cash a ticket but still wind up losing money a lot of money.
This is why I never make show bets, especially on longshots or pattern plays. Pattern handicapping is one of the best leads to great longshot plays, but when you bet them to show you are really minimizing your return. You can in effect bet that same horse to show by playing them on the bottom of the Tri\'s and get a much better return. So rather than bet $1,000 to show, I would be betting $300 to win and then keying that horse up and down in the Tri\'s, heavier with the contenders but also with the ALL button if I really liked the horse. I can almost guarantee a better return that way than by betting show. Same thing with Place bets on longshots. You can almost always get a better a return by betting win and hedging underneath in the EX pool. The only exception to this would be when there is a heavy favorite and a bridge jumper involved, such as with Rachel this past weekend. I went down to the paddock to look at her and she looked great. I noticed at that time that roughly 90% of a large show pool was bet on her. If I would have thought she may run off the board I would have considered a show bet on someone else because it would actually pay more to show than to win. I bet nothing on that race because I just wanted to see how Rachel ran.
So again, no I don\'t hyperventilate when I lay down a bet. I kiss that money goodbye and I have no problem losing when I know I am mostly swinging all or nothing. I move on to the next opportunity, and I know the ones I hit more than cover the loses. But that\'s just me.
That\'s some useful insight - thanks for sharing. The problem I encounter with the Derby each year is I get out of my normal routine which is to closely scrutinize the post parade and how a horse looks before loading. It\'s a major tool in my handicapping and it can\'t be pulled off on Derby Day, especially when at the track.
You\'re dead on about structuring the bets and spreading so far as to hedge. I\'m guilty of that on occaision. I would say my most consistent play is $200 across for me on a value play as well as pick 3\'s and 4\'s. Exotics are easy to get caught up in with the racy payouts. If I play exotic single race wagers they\'re usually exactas 2x4 for the large play and a 4x2 saver. It\'s usually all I can get my head around:-). I guess I just spread and hedged again with that exacta play:-)
\"The whole field looked like an underlay\" I like that comment because as I looked at the tote I felt the same way.
Super Savor no doubt was short on odds. Coming off a hanging loss and 0-2 on the year one would ask why he was favored most of the pre-wagering. The flip side is who else looked that much better. Several unproven Synthetic mavens in the race and others who had not run in 6 wks also.
Super Savor had run a Top at the track at Two. Had essentially paired that Top twice this year and drawn perfectly for his style. He probably should have been more like 10-1 and maybe the Borel money accounted for some of the discount. 3 Derbies in 4 yrs. That\'s Hartack like.
On Oaks Day I was told Awesome Acts connections were not even bothering to show up. Toss.
When I visited the \"The King\" in the paddock before Rachels race I asked about Dublin and he was even quicker to remind me that he had one in the Oaks. A single on every Oaks Derby Double ticket and a win bet. At the quarter pole I started gripping the binoculars a little tighter. At the 8th pole they were dropped and the shouting began. No avail.
Baffy stopped and chatted with group on Oaks Day and said the rule was be nice to everybody so Lucky could maybe be Lucky. After he drew the one hole every third word began with F and little old ladies were being stepped on. Baffy is a good guy and Lucky is a good horse. But I only said good. Post and trip was going to mean everything here and became only a small use.
Dale Romans godfather came by and said don\'t toss Paddy. Which I promply did. Grass synthetic type may have moved up on the off. My mistake.
Jockey Agent Ronnie Eubanks on Friday said I may be crazy but I think my guy (Rosario) and his horse Make Music For Me can make some noise. He came from dead last to close out a $202K Super. Being fat dumb and stupid is no way to go thru life.
Frank Lyons on Friday night at a Derby Eve Party was asked who he liked and uttered 10 words. 6 began with F and the other 4 were Sydneys Candy and Awesome Act. See previous comments about post and stay at home owners.
As I moved to position myself to watch the race I walked by Ky Legend John Wall with my dad and said \"we gotta get a picture\". Loaded with all this info I squeezed out the winner and Exacta. As the race ended I walked by Wall who flashed his tickets to his group and \"I nailed it\".
I went to stand in line to cash my tickets. Wall was taken inside to cash his.........
Scratching my head as to why anyone would be interested in who Frankie Lyons liked except, perhaps, to put a line through it.
Only Christina Olivares keeps me watching TVG.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Super Saver an underlay? I laugh-out-loud as I read these posts. The horse has two extra wins on his resume if he doesn\'t spot Line of David 4 pounds and Odysseus & Schoolyard Dreams 6 pounds, and he goes off at his true odds of 7/2 instead of 8-1.
Throw in Borel, how he looked training, and a very likely 1w1w trip, This horse towered over the rest of the field as a clear-cut standout to me.
You have to ask the question, if they run the race 9 times , does he only win once or less.
I think the answer is obvious, even if after the fact.
There were any number of horses in there that would not win once in 100 runnings, yet were 25-35 to one.
With so many underlays, chances are a few were too high, not only SS.
QuoteYou have to ask the question, if they run the race 9 times , does he only win once or less
The answer is an emphatic NO.
Given the post positions as they were, the way the horses were training, and the way the horses were coming into the race, he wins
atleast 3 out of 9 IMO.
Last 13 Derby Winners in Preakness: 7 winners, 3 seconds. All 3 seconds were beaten by horses who didn\'t run in the Derby. Rachel, Curlin, Red Bullet.
I still read stuff here and other sites about what a massive underlay Mine That Bird was in the Derby.. yet he went ahead in the Preakness and beat every single other three year old colt that was sent after him by trainers licking their chops. Just because it doesn\'t jive with your handicapping method, style, or whatever, doesn\'t mean it was an underlay. It\'s just amazing how well these luckbox Derby winners like MTB, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Charismatic do in the Preakness huh? Luck. That\'s all that it is. There is some randomness in horse racing but it\'s nowhere near the randomness you might see in a baseball game for instance where batters have little control over balls in play. If the horse is fit, and faster for the distance than the other horses, and has a running style and jockey that will keep him out of trouble, he stands a pretty damn good chance of winning the race. It\'s not a whole lot more complicated than that.
Stuff can happen during that race that prevents him from winning but who is going to have more trouble during the race? Let\'s say we have two horses of equal talent. Which one stands a better chance of winning? Horse #1 stalking close to the pace, with a jockey who will go where no other jockey will go or Horse #2, a deep closer that has to rely on sharp fractions so the front-end breaks down as well as pass 19 other horses? So who exactly wins the 8 other races here sir? The deep closers who are significantly more likely to encounter more trouble than the very fit, very fast stalker? The deep closers who have absolutely no chance if the pace comes up L :23.4/48.1/1:12.3? Ridiculous. Ice Box doesn\'t even hit the stinking board with those fractions, just like he couldn\'t get by Jackson Bend and Aikenite in the Fountain of Youth when he spotted them 5 lengths on the back stretch while they were lopping along up near the front. The 1997 (Silver Charm), 1999 (Charismatic), and 2002 (War Emblem) Derbies were so slow, the closers had virtually NO CHANCE, Super Saver\'s running style can win that Derby under almost any variable of early race pace.
Super Saver wins that race only 1 time out of 9? Absolutely 100% absurdity.
Boy, I dunno about this. If Ice Box gets a better trip I say he gives Super Saver a pretty good run for his money, and IB went of at higher odds. Who knows what LAL would have done with a clean trip.
Like I said, there\'s nothing wrong with cashing on an $18 horse. But his morning line odds were 15-1. I think he was 35-1 in the final futures pool. He wound up at 8-1, and he got a perfect trip. Not trying to take anything away from SS, and I agree that good horses make their own trips to a certain extent, but how many times out of 100 do you think SS gets a perfect trip and Ice Box gets stopped like he did?
Overall this is a pretty weak bunch so far and there\'s not a lot that separates many of them. At 8-1, IMO, SS was an underlay.
I am happy you hit the race. Many others on this board did, too, however, you might want to tone down your posts. They are abrasive and aggressive and a real turn off to many. Last week you were \"shouting\" at me when I told you that SS would not go off higher than 8-1, and now you are again acting like a \"know it all.\" Please be more respectful. It is very possible that Super Savor didn\'t get the best figure in the race, yet he wins it 33% of the time?? 8-1 on that horse in a 20 horse fields may not have been an underlay, but it was certainly far from generous, and, except for the super, the exotics were also a marginal return on investment from a risk perspective.
Pure guess, but, I\'d bet that if you polled knowledgeable handicappers a day or two before the race, the majority of them would have had projected SS\'s odds to be low double digits. 8-1 is a pretty square price, and we\'d all take that ten times out of ten, but, he was the second betting favorite, and those who have the ability to look at this objectively could probably make a case that there were underlay elements to his price. I personally thought all the horses were underlays, but, if I can get an 8-1 shot home, you can call it, and me, anything you want.
I have to agree that if we run the race 10 more times the idea of SS winning only once is a bit absurd.
I keyed him for the following reasons:
-Post Position
-Borel
-17% chance to run a new top based on having only 2 preps.
-Had a win at CD
-Trained well in the slop
-Ranked number 1 is Bris 2/3 CMB....7 of the last 8 Derby winners were ranked in the Top 3 in this category. 2nd this year was Dublin who I tossed because he\'s quirky and he drew way outside and MI who I used but IMO had too many lengths to make up.(Giacomo not figured into the percentages)
If we rewind the race and everything stays the same I still don\'t see how he doesn\'t win it at least 3 or 4 more times. Yes, IB was compromised and he may have been the best horse on Saturday, but if we run the race 10 more times how many more times will he find trouble? In a 20 horse field, probably a lot. Same could be said for LAL who finds trouble in every race.
Super Saver offered good value.
SS paid $51.20 in pool 2 future wagering. Factoring in Borel and the stakes record win over the course, $51.20 was a good price. You did, of course, have the risk of a race out into the future, but that is irrelevant because every horse had that risk. As the 9th choice in the betting, SS was an overlay.
SS paid $73 in pool 3 future wagering. That pool closed after the Tam race, and you did have some distance risk. After a close review of that race, however, SS\'s inability to change leads properly was a factor in the defeat, and Borel had already shown an ability to correct that problem (watch the Champagne and 2 yr old CD race). Super Saver offered good value as 12 other colts took more money.
SS paid $56.50 as part of the Oaks/Derby double, which was an overlay. Evening Jewel ran huge in that race, better than expected, but no other horse had a prayer of beating Blind Luck that day.
On Derby day, the exacta with the 6th choice paid $152.40, the tri paid $2,337, and the super paid $202,569. Overlay? Underlay? Reasonable people could disagree there. The tri and super look good to me.
SS was 8-1 in the final win pool. He wound up taking a decent amount of money from casual fans who are now in love with Calvin Borel (and 100k from one very lucky dude). Reasonable people can argue over the value here. Personally, I think the horse wins this race at least 20% of the time, so I wouldn\'t call it an underlay, but there was significant trouble behind SS, and if I had keyed one of the tough luck horses, I might feel different. Do note, however, that many people handicapped SS\'s dream trip before the race. This was not 100% luck. One could also argue that SS did the real running when the race counted, and the horses that sucked up behind him were not as impressive, even with the trouble, though those arguments are usually filled with holes.
Overall, Super Saver offered value, though the $18 win price was not the best place to find it.
Going forward, it will now be very difficult to find good value on SS, as the Derby winner rarely offers good value in subsequent races; too many people saw the win. Borel up will only hurt the price further.
With the trip SS had, he would win that same race several times, without that trip he might never win.
mike
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> With the trip SS had, he would win that same race
> several times, without that trip he might never
> win.
>
>
> mike
I agree there..For me it was all about trips/running style with SS..The question was could he rate and finish behind the tiring speed. If I knew that he could rate and finish he would have probably been a key for me. Without knowing that I could not take a stand on him.
Gotta give it to Borel though..Most jocks would have swung outside of Nobles Promise around the turn and into the stretch but instead he squeezes up inside of him to save more ground..They guy is still one of the most fearless jocks I have ever seen..
> Gotta give it to Borel though..Most jocks would
> have swung outside of Nobles Promise around the
> turn and into the stretch but instead he squeezes
> up inside of him to save more ground..
Not most but try 10 out of 10. That move was a little mind boggling but it just shows how conscience he is to sace ground and stay near the rail. I really am not sure how much ground he saved there and he also ran the risk of NP coming over and causing him to be checked.
But for Borel it did not matter because that is the trip HE WANTS.....
His trip was forecasted by me and many others.
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,58918,58949#msg-58949
Quote from: SekrahThat first turn Super Saver will be 3-5 lengths off the lead and hugging the rail. He\'s already got the field beat right there. If nothing horrible happens the rest of the way he wins the race.
Not a lot horrible can happy when only 3-4 horses are in front of you and you are sitting where nobody else will go. The trip was very predictable IMO.
Sekrah,
Can you please try to take yourself a little less seriously. It\'s getting very old already having you tell us all how much of a genius you are.
Alot of us hit the race, good for us, now let\'s move on.
If the horse breaks a half of a step slow, the trip looks very different, of course he would still be on the rail because Calvin would get him there but he might have had 10 horses in front of him instead of 3. Maybe he would have been good enough to overcome it maybe not but you don\'t know and neither do any of the rest of us.
Please don\'t post again on how great you are for having made a great call. You have congratulated yourself enough already.
When MJ nailed the Big Brown derby 2 years ago, he was super cool about it given that everyone gave him a heard time ahead of time and it made us appreciate him even more. He never tooted his own horn.
Learn a lesson there and cool it.
I was cool. I barely made 3 or 4 posts since the Derby, mostly about handicapping the Preakness. I didn\'t rub my win into anybody when the opportunity was clearly ripe for me to do so. I\'m not like that. But since then I\'ve read a half a dozen posts from people saying how cluelessly lucky anyone who had Super Saver was and how he was this big underlay and how nobody could of seen him A) Rate, B) Get the distance, C) Pass Horses, D) Get the Perfect Trip, or E) Everyother B.S. reason they could make up to dismiss this horse. All of those reasons were made up before the Derby and constantly repeated on here and I destroyed them with the facts. The horse wins, and I am still a clueless rube that got a lucky trip with the underlay?
Laugh-Out-Loud.
Sekrah wrote:
\"I was cool.\"
I thought your bouncing vapor post on the Paceadvantage board was even cooler.
Oh the humanity. Put me in cuffs and send me to the electric chair for this horrific crime against society.
Sekrah
Are you kidding me? You made 3 posts on this thread alone about how you made the SS call ahead of time and your whole tone that anyone who doubted you or who didn\'t think it was a lock is dumd is very annoying.
Take a reality check man. Literally, 3 posts on this thread alone let alone all of the other posts on the other threads about your amazing call on the 2nd betting choice in the race.
I am annoyed with you and I took a boatload of dough out of the race, I can\'t imagine how grating you are for people that understandably went in another direction.
You made a good call on the race. I am sincerlely pumped for you. It\'s very cool.
You don\'t need to remind us anymore about how smart you are. We got it.
Umm.. A thread sparks up 3 days after the race telling Super Saver backers how much of an underlay he was, and I respond to it with the facts and that\'s me bragging?
Please, find another post, within 3 days after the race, where I bragged or rubbed in my win. Find an \"I told you so.\". The race was over. I apologized for been vigorous during the days leading up tot he race. It was a contentious week with an exciting field to wager. We had a good back and forth arguments all week long. We had all moved on to the next thing. Then this.
The reasoning SS was an underlay? He got a perfect trip to win this race. Maybe. Besides being the fastest horse in the race for the distance, that lucky, perfect trip was extremely easy to predict and I did so on April 28th.
I do not apologize for responding to false information with the facts.
Sekrah
You just posted that Super Saver\'s perfect trip was \"easy to predict\".
Are you kidding? A twenty horse field in a quagmire. Please give it a rest! bbb
I said Calvin will beat the 3 horses to the inside of him to the rail and sit off pace with a 1w in the first turn. Wow.. Yea, that\'s really going out onto the limb there. How could that possibly, EVER happen?
Anyone who thought anything else than that was more likely to happen into the first turn seriously wasn\'t paying attention Derby week.
Calvin is in that catbird seat in the first turn 7 or 8 out of 10 times.
Pardon the pun, but can we beat this horse anymore?
sekrah-- okay, that\'s enough. You posted a lot of opinions, not facts The idea that ANYONE was 7/2 to win that wide open 20 horse Derby is ridiculous. And that\'s from a guy who liked him (\"most likely horse to run well\" in the seminar). SS winning wasn\'t just a function of how HE ran and the trip HE got-- that\'s why I said most likely to run well, not most likely winner. If he was an overlay in the WIN pool at 8-1 it was fairly slight, like maybe he was really 6-1. Which might have made him the most likely winner, that\'s how wide open the race was.
Learn something from Covello. The guy took down the super, and he\'s a picture of modesty.
Now I gotta get him to buy a horse...
Well I completely 1000% disagree. So that\'s the end of it. I\'m done.
Mjellish:
I like your style. But, I have to say, you certainly started a thread with some really ugly posts. I would hope that some people would come to the realization that handicapping is not something one should be arrogant about. Success in this game, no matter how smart you are, is dependent upon having some luck along the way.
Albany
I agree completely. There is no one on this board or in this game that knows it all. There should always be room for differing opinions. That\'s the beauty of parimutuel pools. When you\'re right, you\'re right. But get ready to be wrong soon because it\'s going to happen.
Best game ever invented.