Zardana.
Hopefully, there is a horse in tomorrow\'s race who is more like I Want Revenge instead of being synth/dirt one and done.
And lets hope Blind Luck does exactly the same.
At least Blind Luck cut her teeth on Calder dirt. Not sure One and Done applies to her though I am expecting her last to wipe her off the board today. Amen looks formiddable
Jerry Hollendorfer silences Jerry Brown:-)
Since this is a fresh post i wanted to ask you to comment about what you posted about a week or so ago with the Cal synth figures with horses shipping out to the east to dirt being that it has to do with this thread.. your original post was..
\"Jimbo-- We started running some studies. I\'ll have more indepth stuff in the seminar, but briefly, since 1/1/2008:
1-- Of horses that ran on synth in California and shipped elsewhere (another state) to run on synth (96 total), more went back in their next start than forward (35 to 28).
2-- Of those that ran next on dirt (560), more went forward than back (253 to 201).
3-- Most interestingly, the percentage of those that paired the number (meaning plus or minus one point) was MUCH higher when they ran back on synth. In other words, horses either preferred dirt or didn\'t like it, but not that many were the same on both surfaces. Considering a) that we have been breeding horses in this country to race on dirt for a long time and b) trainers are selecting which ones they want to run on dirt, it\'s not surprising that more (though not a crazy number more) of those shipping prefer dirt.
And this is aside from factoring in California having the toughest testing in the country.\"
IF you took horses that ran a new career top on dirt 1st out from out west (poly)and regressed/bounced next out on dirt (such as Zardana like you posted on this current thread) and tossed those horses aside for this study what would the percentage be of horses who ran a top, off, pair or bad race be 2nd out?
According to what I see... in general a nice number of horses do set new tops on dirt from out west(poly) to east (dirt) but bounce 2nd out (POTN, Zardana, etc.). Being that they have never run those efforts before then its more likely for them to bounce/regress without more significant rest 2nd out correct?
I may be wrong BUT if you took the horses that went backwards off TOP efforts coming from their first dirt numbers out wouldnt that statistic be MUCH different then what we are seeing where horses are 1 and out overall? Seems to me if a horse runs a new top on dirt coming from the poly out west that it really needs muuuuuuch more rest than it normally has to come back to a nice number.