I fully expect Rachel to be much fitter than she was last time and to roll in this spot. However, someone\'s gotta fill out the exacta, and someone will potentially be there incase something goes amiss with RA.
Going with Unrivaled Belle as Zardana is getting alot of the runner-up money. Nice win in the 9f Rampart at GP in March. Lightly raced with 7 career starts and 6 weeks rest coming in here and looks eligible to improve. Didn\'t care for the poly at SA. 5-4-1-0 on Dirt, shortest race ran there was 7 furlongs. Working well. Looks like the best of the rest to me.
RA-UB Exacta heavy, reversed a little lighter.
WPS bets on UB, just in case.
Im boxing Zardana and UB =) I decided I will continue my angle about Rachel coming out like Flower Alley from a few years ago being washed up from last years campaign thinking she will somehow run a clunker in this race.
Crushed! Ship it!
Thank you for a brilliant, historical 3 year old campaign Rachel. You were great.
This is ths second time in a row she either got out on the first turn or Borel lost his mind.
Maybe Asmussen ordered him to keep her away from the other horses, but Unrivaled Belle came around her and was wider.
Uh, nice call, but I think \"crushed\" would be if you called this one way AND pounded it.
\"Saved!\" is more appropriate, given your original analysis, don\'t you think?
(No sour grapes here, I had 0.00 on the race. Just trying to help you avoid a rotator cuff injury.)
the exacta box was actually terrible enough for you to lose money if you did it.
A $1 exacta box ($2 wager) got you back $16.
A $2 wager win wouldve been $20 back (more money). Pretty crappy that happened.. That exacta box WAGER itself seemed to have gotten crushed and shouldve paid more than $40 to be worth it. Great hit anyway!
They ran slow up front, :24 second 1/4\'s pretty much all the way around. If she\'s the same horse, she wins by a pole. Expect a retirement announcement tomorrow or Sunday. But to your point Jerry, She does eek out a nostril win if Calvin doesn\'s lose the ground.
Something tells me this isn\'t going to be Calvin\'s weekend.
smart play there. that was a good approach to a difficult betting race. hope you went 2 deep in the pk\'s.
Great call Sek. Now you can spread a little more in tomorrow\'s crap shoot:)
Did you also notice she was pretty late in switching leads.
Calvin burned mucho money for many today...race after race. His ride on RA was pitiful...tomorrow is another day, though, folks.
\'This is ths second time in a row she either got out on the first turn or Borel lost his mind\"
JB,
Also the second time she had no excuse and was run down from behind.As far as ground loss, outside paths generally much better than the inside where nothing did well. Stone dead along the inside all day.
Time for Rachel to have babies, not the same horse.
Mike
Why was his ride \"pitiful\"?
MAYBE the owners should switch their trainer to John Sherriff XD
Bell,
A perfect ride by Borel floating her into the best part of the track. All riders stayed off the fence all day.If she goes to the rail she gets beat worse.
Mike
Exactly Mike. As you know when its humid and the wind blows the rail at Churchill is never good. I thought Rachel ran huge and Calvin rode a super race; an opinion echoed by Assmussen in the post race interview. bbb
Retirement for the horse @ 4yo has always been a viable option imo , but now I\'m really wondering - ad blinkers ? , another conditioning race at Kentucky Downs ? get Julie Krone out of retirement to ride ? It looks to me as though too many of these super-filly\'s lack the focused campaigns that are needed to stay on top after they emerge as great ones . ..
She\'s still grade one quality. I\'ll be happy to watch her all this year - getting beat by a nose, a neck, a length. Just because she\'s not slamming them by lengths doesn\'t mean she\'s not worth running. Either for the owners, or the sport.
This is starting to remind me of Lady\'s Secret\'s year AFTER her HOY campaign. When she almost ended up in the grandstands DWL finally took the hint.
The numbers will say she is running near the range of last year.Her prior neg -1 is generous compared to other credible figs.Yesterdays slowish early splits allowed her to sprint home quickly which will get another her another good whole fig.
Being run down twice by 2 rather ordinary females is confirmation that last years campaign has taken some toll on Rachel.No telling if she will ever get back to brilliance and others may be catching up.Facing Z or worse Quality Road now will only tarnish her accomplishments in 09.
Jackson has tons of money, so he may not retire her. My guess is that if they go on with her they\'ll pick a soft spot and then take a shot at the big guns.Always admired this brilliant filly but must put a bullseye on her back as I did yesterday.
Mike
Mike...
Don\'t you just think she is too heavy and muscular now? I think she\'s the type where that sinewy build she had last year really suited her. More like Usain Bolt than Hershel Walker. I posted after her first workouts this year that if bigger was better for her she would be better. But bigger is obviously worse for her. She\'s bulky and hitting the ground different & not kicking out those hind legs like a gazelle like she did last year. What do you think about how they handled her time off? I think they should have turned her out instead of stalling her all winter. That put the wrong kind of weight on her. Do you think they can thin her out a little or is it too late for that now?
Martoon,
Think the muscling up is more a function of nature, 3 yr old to 4.As far as her handling,Asmussen is a world class trainer.Rachel would never get run over last year off the two soft trips she had this year.
I do not believe the \"voodoo\" about third off the layoff, etc as all horses are different, peaking whenever, and Rachel exploded very early in her 3 yr old campaign(2nd start from memory)
Look, she is still a top filly but not even close to the freak category of last year and it\'s pure speculation that she will ever get back.
Mike
Its definitely important to point out that older horses (4yo and higher) have that experience and its much different situation running against them then slower 3 year old horses. If you really look at older horses they tend to toss in clunkers every couple races then a top grinding effort every few races. Rachel is up against those type of horses this year running in and out of tops rather than running against horses who have limited abilities at an early age. She WAS faster than all those horses last year and SHOULD have won. She lost barely this year against 2 horses that were forging forward and have experience. Rachel has already reached her peak and shes NOT a forging horse like what she has run into this year.
How can we expect a female horse to run megatives 3s as a 3 year old and IMPROVE better as a 4 year old? Name a female horse that has done THAT before? I cant even come up with anything. The BEST female horses have been consistent ones! Look at azeris thoro in the 2004 breeders cup and compare that to Zenyatta. VERY similar Azeri didnt win every race she was in but she was consistently great AND ran against older male horses like Z will do. If Zenyatta loses the rest of her starts this year will she be looked at any different? probably not so the same should go for rachel.. to me shes running as good as she can and they are pretty good efforts in this class. I think she will stay around this level as she continues and maybe pop a really good one or 2 somewhere along the line.
I didn\'t notice that my winners yesterday were floated that wide, but more importatly Calvin rode from the half mile as if he had the race won. He didn\'t get into the filly until she got eyeballed. That\'s unfortunate.
But I love him anyway and expect him to do well today. Betting him in the second.
IMO, Unrivaled Belle isn\'t going to be an ordinary female. She\'s one to watchout to make some noise this year.
But Jess Jackson said the other day that Rachel was 90%. Well, duh, she\'s not going to beat everybody at 90%.
He hates going to the whip on Rachel. I think he went to the whip on her in the Preakness and she slowed down because she thought she was doing something wrong.
QuoteBeing run down twice by 2 rather ordinary females is confirmation that last years campaign has taken some toll on Rachel.
To my eyes, she\'s moving differently than she did last year. Not as freely, and her ears hint (to me) perhaps she\'s got a little something (as do nearly all race horses with little things that have to be managed)
QuoteJackson has tons of money, so he may not retire her. My guess is that if they go on with her they\'ll pick a soft spot and then take a shot at the big guns.
Perfect plan for her
QuoteAlways admired this brilliant filly but must put a bullseye on her back as I did yesterday. No telling if she will ever get back to brilliance and others may be catching up.
I have to agree all of the above - including the bullseye. I expect the winner yesterday to have a great year.
I differ only in that I don\'t see a year of running 1-2-3-4 in the older female top ranks diminish her HOY accomplishments at all.
Sight,
Rachel most deserving of 2009 HOY regardless of what happens this year.Had her in the Ruffian class(fastest 3yr old filly in history) but no longer.
Mike
I think she was beaten by a very good horse. Maybe TGJB will offer a number. My guess is that it was close to 0. I started the pick-3 with UB and RA but couldn\'t get the last leg.
Leamas
\"Time for Rachel to have babies, not the same horse\"
I still cannot believe she\'s completely fit and despite that she runs a neg 1 first back and 103 beyer yesterday translates to what?Is Rachel different if she
runs a neg 1 and wins by 10 or runs a neg 1 and loses by a neck?The obvious is she
is still very fast and subject to run faster.The only thing from yesterdays race
I thought was odd was she didn\'t switch leads on cue.Personally I hope she comes
out of it better for the wear and races again.
mjs
Rachel\'s race was faster than older male slugs later on.Rachel may pair, with ground/weight, but for her the performance was ordinary. Winner never broke 3 prior to yesterday, improving though, ran a new top.
Mike
Mike
Forgive me for revisiting this post, but I just watched the Oaks race replay.
If Borel rode the perfect trip with Rachel by floating her to the best part of the track in her race, why did he later take Tidal Pool to the rail as soon as he could in the Oaks and keep her there all the way?
Could it be that he discovered that he made a mistake with Rachel or was the Oaks his bonehead ride? You got to think that one of them was a mistake. Which?
Al
Al,
No,I do not.You may not notice that very subtle move made by many good jocks. They will float the field or just their horse a little wide into the first turn forcing tucks(losing a Little ground strategically). This happens more into the first turn in turf races when they are crawling and two turn races with short a run to the first turn.I have always felt that horses travelling wide, but slowly, is not a big deal,no argument about the extra distance travelled.
The other reason may be Calvins way of \"taking the early edge off Rachel\" as he may feel she was too keen. I hear lots of criticism of jocks by people who are unaware that horses with no mouths, that pull, are almost never taken right to the fence because they grab even more down there.
Cordero,Gryder,Luzzi, Mig and trainers explained that to me more than 20 years ago. Sometimes we see things that we do not fully understand and of course sometimes the jocks screw up royally.It\'s not always as it appears.
Mike