What a crazy year, I do not recall another quite like it.
In the past month or so we anointed Esky in a walkover, had him winning the triple crown, bouncing like a rubber ball after consecutive tops, the drug testing issues with TP and his string, eliminated hundreds of years of breeding as being insignificant, dealing with a potential suicidal pace scenario with 7 or 8 legitimate front runners in the field, injuries, defections, earnings, odds makers and now 2-3 inches of rain look very likely overnight Friday into Saturday. A bit of a run on sentence but this Derby has earned it !
I hadn\'t planned on betting much on this Derby to begin with. Esky looked very solid and I searched the rest looking for a viable contender and found none. I wasn\'t about to take 2/1 in a 20 horse field and would have used him in pick 3\'s and 4\'s and back and forth in some tri\'s and supers but nothing major at all. Now I\'m even going to wager less due to the forecast.
I believe JB has nailed the Oaks in the seminar, once The Devil went to take on the boy\'s. I\'ll be making a pretty good Dutrow parlay tomorrow on Fuzzy Britches in the 4th and Amen in the Oaks as well as the seminar exotics. I couldn\'t agree any more.
The Derby has me confused and bewildered like many others. Jackson Bend and Super Saver are must use horses in you believe in thoro\'s at all. However American Lion and the filly can just as easily bounce out of the exotics as pair up, top or win ?
So here goes the ultimate reach and please don\'t have me committed. Backtalk will be 70/1, I love the dam side of his pedigree and liked what I saw in him as a 2 yr. old at Saratoga last August. A troubled trip was overcome to win going away in the Sanford and a parking lot trip in the Hopeful that paired the Sanford number. He went on to have the poly clunker at Keenland and then vanish only to reappear in the slop at Delta Downs to run back to his 2 yr. old top first off the bench. He followed that up with the insane 1:09.60 work while running at a target the week before the Illinois Derby. He galloped out in 1:23 and change ! I know he bore in in the Illinois race but I can put a line through that race due to the workout draining him for sure. He\'s never bore in or out before ? American Lion ran through the roof in that race improving 8 points in 4 months. Backtalk was not disgraced in that race and was fortunate to draw in here through defections. We know he likes the slop, watch that Delta race it was horrible and breeding ( if it matters ) he can run all day.
This year why not ? My focus will be more on the Oaks as well as my $$$
Edited by JB to not give the seminar away for free.