I am leaving for Louisville in an hour so I will be off the board for the next few days but just in case I get lucky and hit this thing, I wanted to be on the record (we can call this the anti-chuckles the clown post for those who were here on the Big Brown Derby).
My 4 are:
Super Saver (in Calvin I trust and he has the best sheet pattern in the race as I have been yammering about for 3 weeks so I have to go with what I know best)
American Lion (fastest horse in the race and training amongst the best down there)
Stately Victor (closed like a freight train in the BG, has run well before on dirt and is almost completely off everyone\'s radar screen so he will be a bomb, best looking horse in the race physically according to my guy down there, has flourished since the BG, maybe he will bounce big time but I am getting paid 40-1 to find out)
Lookin at Lucky (training well, great jock, should save ground and won\'t quit so wouldn\'t be surprised to see him get up for a piece underneath)
I am going to take a stand against the filly just because I think she is going to be a basket case both before the race (as she has been before) with all of the people and during the race with 19 bigger animals (well, I guess 18 since Jackson Bend is like a pony) banging her around. She\'s definitely good enough on her best, I am just going to take a stand that there\'s too many variables for her to run her best.
I have Jackson Bend and Ice Box covered at very healthy odds in the futures pool in Vegas so I am hedged there in case something happens so I won\'t be using them on top in any tickets on Sat.
This is one of the most wide open in recent memory which is really fun so good luck to all, thanks so much for all of the dialogue and I can\'t wait till after the race to see what everyone thinks about what happens.
Anyone care to guess what Jackson Bend\'s off odds will be?
24 to 1?
Here are the odds from a place where the takeout is pretty reasonable:
1 Lookin At Lucky +380
2 Ice Box +1600
3 Noble\'s Promise +1400
4 Super Saver +1200
5 Line Of David +4000
6 Stately Victor +4000
7 American Lion +2500
8 Dean\'s Kitten +6000
9 Make Music For Me +6000
10 Paddy O\'Prado +2500
11 Devil May Care +1200
12 Conveyance +1600
13 Jackson Bend +1500
14 Mission Impazible +1700
15 Discreetly Mine +5000
16 Awesome Act +1100
17 Dublin +1700
18 Backtalk +6000
19 Homeboykris +5000
20 Sidney\'s Candy +650
Jackson Bend less than Ice Box???
Dublin 17-1, right where I predicted he\'d go.
He\'ll be a few points shorter than that. The physical reports aren\'t good, but he looks strong on Ragozin.
JB don\'t you mean he\'s sore?
No. I mean exactly what I said.
I have seen the sheets from the guys \"cross town\" and the disparities are unbelievable (again).
Jackson Bend looks like two completely different horses on the two sets of sheets.
Dublin looks like the bet of a lifetime on rags. Immediate pairup of the 2 year old top, then a beautiful, improving line this year. May they all pump all their money onto Dublin. Of course, now that I won\'t be betting him, he will get a 1w/1w trip........
The place to bet Dublin is the Travers.
He has not won a race since the Saratoga season. By far his worse numbers have come at Churchill and he has not trained well here particularly getting out on the turns. IMO he just doesn\'t like it at CD.
Any money on him only improves the odds on the others as he is a complete toss.
Or the Kings Bishop if he hasn\'t been ruined chasing Triple Crown races.
Think he\'s a sprinter/one turn mler at best.Bottom of that pedigree is speed more than stamina.
I have a better shot of hitting the super on a cold ticket than Dublin does of being 1w1w from that post.
Good luck Jim. We agree on a few things.
Super Saver - my futures pick. bred well to get the distance. solid \'2.25\' top over the surface at 2. tough time changing leads first out in the Tam Derby, but paired top last with Borel back up. don\'t expect a big jump on 3 weeks, but this is a pretty fit colt who figures to get the inside trip. a 1w/1w run in the \'1\' range puts him right there. will not, however, be 15-1.
Mission Impaz - loved him in the La Derby. another \'4.5\' won\'t do it, but there are some things to like: he relaxes well in a year where rating is a valued commodity, and he should get a decent amount of stamina from his broodmare sire and 2nd dam. Pletcher\'s other 3 are speed/stalker types, and I expect the instructions here will be to drop back. big top on 5 weeks a possibility. in my quest to find the longshot that might benefit most from the fast pace, I have landed on MI at a price. the likelihood of an off track, however, has tempered my enthusiasm for this selection.
SS and MI were to be my two keys, but the ugly forecast calls for a few minor tweaks (though my level of confidence drops markedly if sloppy). three horses with off-track pedigrees:
Discreetly Mine - too slow going in, but the sheet looks good and the jock is strong. not sure about Mineshaft on top, but Private Account and Believe It on bottom suggest an off track should not be a problem. note the dam's wet track victory in the 10f Alabama. good stamina in the pedigree as well. may not have wanted 10f over a fast track, but DM might forget to stop in the slop. long odds.
Stately Victor - Ghostzapper is out of a Relaunch mare and he loved the slop. dam by In Reality. note the solid race first out over the off going at Sar. I was originally against this guy on dirt, but the fast pace and breeding could work in his favor if wet. huge odds.
Awesome Act - love Awesome Again over Mr Prospector over Halo in the slop. in the end though, I won't be keying on AA, as I don't want to be 5 deep in the top spots, and SV and DM will be much longer on the board.
Key SS and MI over a fast track, go four deep including DM and SV if wet.
I agree.
Derby 1w1w and starting position
2009 - Advice (4), Mine That Bird (8), Join In The Dance (9), Atomic Rain (14)
2008 - Cool Coal Man (1), Court Vision (4), Denis of Cork (16)
2007 - Sedgefield (1), Street Sense (7), Hard Spun (8), Liquidity (9)
2006 - Jazil (1), Point Determined (5)
2005 - High Limit (6), Flower Alley (7)
Atomic Rain had Rene Douglas, and went to the back just in front of MTB. He was the horse Calvin quickly navigated around on the 2nd turn.
Denis of Cork had Calvin, he came from dead last there. Other than those 2, there\'s what there? 46-48 horses between those 5 races on the outside post that couldn\'t catch a 1w1w
Making Dublin go 1w/1w is like taking John Madden on an airplane
And in the back of the Used Car salesman\'s mind he knows it.
But he won\'t admit it until after he guts him in the Belmont.
Good Luck,
Joe B.