TGJB,
You didn\'t really have any comment on the race shape in your seminar, but in looking at what the sheets are saying, I have to say I am in shock. It just doesn\'t make sense.
Most people are expecting Conveyance to be somewhere very near the lead (1st or 2nd).
TG Race shapes have him as the 8th fastest horse in the race???? Among those that race shapes to expect to be in front of Conveyanc early are the filly, Mission Impazible, Noble\'s Promise and Home Boy Kris. And race shapes expects Lookin at Lucky to be right next to Conveyance early. The filly and Mission Impazible are stone cold closers. How in the world does race shapes expect Conveyance to be behind them early? (is it forecasting a stumble out of the gate?)
Additionally, in a race that looks loaded for speed, it looks like Race Shapes has Super Saver 4 lengths clear after a 1/4 mile. Even my good friend Sekrah, who loves this horse, can\'t expect him to open up 4 lengths early on Line of David and Conveyance.
??????
I don\'t disagree about Conveyance being closer to the lead, but Devil May Care and Mission Impazible are hardly stone cold closers - based on their body of work, they are early pressers.
I think you might be reading those too litterally. Those are raw time averages from their previous races, but they dont take into account Quirin speed points and rider instructions and what might actually happen in the race.
You are absolutely correct to assume that SS will not be 4 lengths in front of Conveyance and some of the other E-8 horses. These horses try for the lead no matter what (assuming jock does not interfere). In prior races, it has resulted in the times TG has recorded in the race shape. In this race, however, if there is a much faster horse in the race (as SS is), these E-8 horses will fully extend to try to get to the lead and will probably run a faster early fraction than they ever have before. This also means that they will be likely to burn out sooner as a result of having done that.
Any of the horses that have running lines that look like 1 1 1 1 are candidates to try to keep up with super saver, unless the trainer and jock have changed tactics. The race shape tells us that they will be out of their leagues in trying to get to the front, and will likely over-extert in the beginning of the race, making them easy throwouts.
Borel will be 4 lengths back of those front runners IMO.
Thread,
Tell me you are not serious, reading the figs too literally. Lets talk reality.Mission Impozable has NEVER outrun Line Of David or Conveyance early, as Race Shapes indicates. Whatever Race Shapes is intended to do(Race Shapes,fancy term for pace figs?) it\'s not even close in this case.We know all about Quirin speed points, jockey intent and the rest.
Mike
no matter, the pace figs I have has SS faster than any of them by far, FWIW
Rich,
Most of the pace figs have SS, who would not be able to outrun SC by 4 lengths, sent or not sent.I would say that the pace figs for most services are weak as they relate to route races on synthetic surfaces where jocks often hammerlock horses early.
Case in point here is SC, who on a dead send, is much faster early than his pace figs would indicate.In the am, SC was described as \"bullet quick\" by informed Cali eyes.
Good Luck
Mike
The real value of TGs race shapes I think is in determining who\'s likely to lose ground on the first turn. Aterall, they only measure the first quarter. In the context of sheet evaluation and handicapping, ground loss is simply more quantifiable (and therefore more \"sheet\"-like) than the art of pace handicapping and who\'s going to get the lead. Super Saver will get the rail and save all the ground, that\'s what really matters.
Miff wrote:
\"Lets talk reality.Mission Impozable has NEVER outrun Line Of David or Conveyance early\"
Is your reality based on other pace figures?
Mission Impazible was 2 lengths off the lead all the way around in the LA Derby
Jimbo-- I did make a comment, I said that in this case the RS\'s might be deceptive.
The RS\'s don\'t realy predict anything, and they\'re mechanical. They average the last 3 adjusted first quarters. In the case of Conveyance, a) the average is distorted by the slow pace he was able to set at Sunland last time, and b) he is almost sure to be sent, for a couple of reasons. Borel has already said he is going to take SS back, too.
The way I look at RS\'s is to look up top first, then look below to see if there have been any distortions (caused by surface, one race out of line, etc.). The idea to list those other back races came from someone who posts here, and it waas a good one. The ones that apply most directly to today\'s situation (distance, surface) have the dates italicized.
There\'s an expression-- RTFM. The R,T, and M stand for read, the, and manual. Almost all this is covered in the explanatory material shown before the RS every day.
\"Lets talk reality.Mission Impozable has NEVER outrun Line Of David or Conveyance early\"
\"Is your reality based on other pace figures.
...no, anyone with a cintella of racing knowledge that understands pp\'s.
Mike
Exactly what I was trying to say. You cannot read RS too litterally and interpret it to mean that the race will look exactly as the graph shows. The graph is an indication of what happened previously and you have to read between the lines to see what that means for today.
and what it means to me is that there are several horses with 8 QSP in this race who are going to be pushed to go faster early than they ever have, and this spells doom for them if they do.
Yes, he is reading the figs too literally if he is reading them to mean that this is exactly how the race plays out. Not sure why you put words in my mouth and accused me of saying that MI is faster than some of these others, I never said that. But I\'d be willing to bet $1000 that the race does not look like exactly like this race shape. In some cases it will be right and in some it will be wrong. I never said it was 100% wrong, I said it cannot be read too literally.
But I\'d be willing to bet $1000 that the race does not look like exactly like this race shape
...HUH? no kidding, what did you think Jim was trying to say.
Mike
Jim very clearly was trying to say that he was wondering why the race shapes depicted something happening that we all agree will not. I responded that he was making an incorrect assumption about how race shapes should be interpreted.
I entered this thread to try to help someone, why exactly did you enter this thread? To show off your charm?
Miff wrote:
\"...no, anyone with a cintella of racing knowledge that understands pp\'s.\"
Oh, OK. I\'ll get back to you when I find a \"cintella.\"
Ok Treadhead, TGJB and RICH,
I look forward to anybody\'s interpretation of how the race shapes for the derby help in any way, considering what they show.
And I also look forward to reading a manual that will explain how Mission Impazible and Devil May Care are quicker early than Conveyance.
No. Have averaged faster first quarters in their last three, not quicker as a horse. That\'s the point.
On 3/28 at Sunland there were 12 routes. Nine had faster first quarters than Conveyance ran, including several claimers. That slow quarter is dragging down his average. He had much quicker quarters earlier.
I expect LOD and Conveyance to be on the lead, a couple of lengths or more clear of the others, because of how fast LOD went (successfully) in his only dirt try, and because Baffert will send Conveyance. Behind that I think the RS will be fairly accurate. I also think that overall the pace will not be crazy fast, except for possibly the front two. This could change if it pours and the jocks decide you have to be on or near the lead to win.
I\'ve heard somewhere that if it rains Line of David will scratch. Anybody hear that too?
When you say crazy fast I presume you mean like 2000,2001 and 2005 when they went less :46 to the half and less then 1:10 to the six furlong mark. A pace that fast would surprise you, correct?
I think the horses sitting in the next flight behind the first two won\'t be going anywhere near that fast.
Thanks.
I\'ve heard this a couple of times. I hope he stays in.
Jimbo wrote:
\"I also look forward to reading a manual that will explain how Mission Impazible and Devil May Care are quicker early than Conveyance.\"
If you get a chance, Jimbo, please check out the Moss Pace Figures for the horses discussed in this string.
We know Conveyance will be allowed to roll early, even before the post draw. We all figured LOD would employ the same tactics that got him to Churchill - now that Sidney\'s Candy is parked in BigBrownland, LOD will likely be hustled out even more to open up the front end of the field and create room for his stablemate.
American Lion has shown an unwillingness to be restrained while in blinkers before; they took them off, allowed him to roll and they earned their ticket to Louisville. So with a handful of speed outside him trying to save ground, does he go after the front runners (in between, a suicide spot), or does he tuck in behind and save ground? If the latter, he may be in front of Super Saver, since they\'re talking \"4 lengths\" off the lead - and if you\'re a Super Saver fan, do you think the horse will be comfortable running inside in a third flight with horses in front/outside of him and nowhere to go for a while?
Paddy O\'Prado, another one who found success upfront and is working sharp, doesn\'t look like he will shuffle back - Desourmeaux knows what it\'s like to have an early horse get off poorly in this race and have to rush up (Sweetnorthernsaint). Add five more outside from there who want to save ground and prefer to track one flight of horses. Add slop, cook at 100K+ screaming fans for two minutes...
Borel and Pletcher may need to rethink strategy. The back of the front on the inside is not the place to be.
Rich,
I will do so.
But even if they tell me that DMC will be in front of Conveyance early, I won\'t believe it. (and I love the filly, but not from the front)
Thanks,
Jim
I agree with your Conveyance point, Jimbo, and in general I think it\'s a bad idea to allow pace figures to override habitual early position. To me the best way to use pace figures is the way you\'d use final-time figures if you believed that all the races contained a bunch of horses who were being stiffed by their riders. Give credit for fast figures. Be lenient about slow figures. Marry the figures to your analysis of who was trying and who wasn\'t. Try to figure out who will be trying today. And expect to be wrong fairly often.