2010 Kentucky Derby Post Positions
1. Lookin At Lucky
2. Ice Box
3. Nobles Promise
4. Super Saver
5. Line of David
6. Simply Victor
7. American Lion
8. Dean\'s Kitten
9. Make Music For Me
10. Paddy O Prado
11. Devil May Care (filly)
12. Conveyance
13. Jackson Bend
14. Mission Impazible
15. Discreetly Mine
16. Awesome Act
17. Dublin
18. Backtalk
19. Homeboykris
20. Sidneys Candy
Looking at Unlucky?
Had no shot with a decent post. He will be the 4-1 post time favorite because of the bad draw. Interesting that even though LOD beat both Dublin and SS last out, they are half his ML price (30-1). Now that SS has drawn perfectly with BORAIL, his price will drop to about 10-1 post time.
I hope the post positions of (1) Lookin At Lucky and (20) Sidney\'s Candy will not discourage their supporters.
(2) Ice Box should save all the ground early on and make a big run late.
Agree.. that 2 hole suits Ice Box just fine and he moves up in this draw.
Sidney\'s Candy is not Big Brown and the chance Talamo gets him anything other than 4w4w or worse here are zero. I was going to him underneath but out of the 20 hole I think he falls off all of my tickets completely. I\'m still using LAL, but he\'s no longer a key.
sekrah Wrote:
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> but out of the 20 hole I think he falls off all of
> my tickets completely.
> I\'m still using LAL, but
> he\'s no longer a key.
Unfortunately, I think many will drift away form supprting LAL and SC because of the draw.
Eh, I wouldn\'t go too far.. they might lose a little bit, but not a ton. LAL might go from 3-1 to 7/2. Sidney may still go off at 5-1.
I don\'t think the general non-horse racing public that will be betting Saturday cares about post position. I really don\'t know how much cheaper Big Brown would of went off at in 2008 if he drew to the middle. Maybe he woulda snuck to 9/5, I duno. But since he broke the ice on the 20th PP it may be even less of a problem now.
Super Saver/Calvin Borel have a 1w1w right in their lap now. I think Borel can do ALOT from that spot and he moves up even more on my board.. Hell, he could catch a 0.5w/0.5w ;-) He\'ll be able to clear Lucky easily and let Line of David go and tuck a few lenghts back of him. The Field should be strung out sufficiently enough to get a move from there and force Gomez and Lucky into doing somethign they really don\'t want to do.
MO Wrote:
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> Had no shot with a decent post. He will be the 4-1
> post time favorite because of the bad draw.
> Interesting that even though LOD beat both Dublin
> and SS last out, they are half his ML price
> (30-1). Now that SS has drawn perfectly with
> BORAIL, his price will drop to about 10-1 post
> time.
I\'m a little lost here..Why would the 1 hole be bad for LAL..He was not going to the front. He won\'t have to navigate to the rail. He\'ll sit in the back, let his entrymate do damage up front and try to pick them off around the turn and down the stretch. For all I know he might get the rail closing trip ala Mine that bird. Soemone please explain..On the Flip side Sydney\'s candy is a dead play from that post as far as i\'m concerned..
Coming off a race where this horse was pinned on the rail, the horse will remember that bad experience and balk. the horse will have to be ridden hard all the way. Thats from a pace perspective. Couple that with his bad TG line......
I don\'t disagree. No reason he can\'t get get a Sedgefield type trip, save ground and, whereas Sedgefield circled the track like a merry go round, LAL may be able to pick off a couple more horses in the stretch.
Here are the post positions and the number of wins since 1900:
1 – 12
2 – 9
3 – 8
4 – 10
5 – 12
6 – 6
7 – 8
8 – 10
9 – 4
10 – 10
11 – 3
12 – 3
13 – 4
14 – 2
15 – 3
16 – 3
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 0
20 - 2
Not quite understanding why the 1 post is so bad; other than the fact that you sit in the gate for a few minutes???
Dana,
Most of the post one winners came way back when the fields were much smaller,less early crowding. The time in the gate is always negative.The first few posts must angle out to avoid running smack into the rail which jets out after the break(app 1/32 into the race)
Mike
Sekrah,
Lookin at Lucky won\'t be 3-1, nor would he have been with a different draw.
The race is wide open, with no clear favorite for the public to \"latch onto\".
LAL goes off at 9-2, with Sydney\'s Candy 7-1. We will see more horses than usual in the 10-1 to 16-1 range. Horses like Awesome Act, Devil May Care, Dublin, Super Saver, Ice Box, Mission Impazzible.
The betting will be spread and anybody who gets this derby right, will get paid real well.
A couple of years ago there was a gate scratch from the 1 hole. Rather than move all horses over 1 post, they left the load \"as is\" which points to the fact that the 1 hole in a 20 horse Derby is the worst place to begin.
The filly may have gotten the best draw...if the draw comes to mean anything.
miff Wrote:
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> Dana,
>
> Most of the post one winners came way back when
> the fields were much smaller,less early crowding.
> The time in the gate is always negative.The first
> few posts must angle out to avoid running smack
> into the rail which jets out after the break(app
> 1/32 into the race)
>
>
> Mike
But how does the rail jutting out affect LAL as he has no speed and should be able to steer clear of that jut out with no issues from the rear. I\'m not saying I like LAL yet but to me that PP draw isn\'t bad for a horse with his running style. As far as the early crowding , once again, LAL will not be a part of that early crowding.
He will be in the gate the longest of any othr horse, up to 90 seconds, an eternity on Derby Day.
Yeah, I don\'t think its so bad - there should be enough blazing speed to clear a little space and hopefully he\'ll be able to find some room down the backstretch. Trips are so huge in this race anyway; how can you possibly say who\'s going to get a bad or good trip just off the draw? No one knows, really.
LAL has to either run through the field (could get lucky a la Ferdinand or Mine That Bird) or around it. You bet him if you believe he will find a path through or if you think he is Secretariat, who spotted the entire field out of the gate and then circled them through both turns.
I think he will have trouble hitting the board.
I\'ll take $10,000,000,000 on the under on both of your LAL and SC predictions.
I would agree with this but why do you think SS will now be able to pass at least 3 or 4 horses?
That is my biggest issue with this horse and I\'m even willing to say that Borel may be worth a 1 point on the TG Scale.
Jack to me that is an easy answer. 1) third race off the bench. 2)it\'s not as easy as you think to pass a horse when you are being rated for pretty much the first time in your career. 3)Line of David got loose on the lead and slowed the race down from the 6 furlong pole to the mile 110-136(26 seconds). 4) The horse loves Churchill downs.
-Will he win? I am not sure the overall pace plays in his favor but I can definitely see him moving forward.
Calvin on TVG today: says he\'s taking back, going to the rail, let the other speed fight it out.
Lost,
Taking back from the rail, in a long chute race,is very difficult.A dead closer like Icebox may not be affected too much,LAL is not a dead closer.
Trainers choose posts like the 18,19,20 slot year after year over the rail for fear of getting buried along the inside.I think LAL has to kinda protect from being buried which may be possible but not easy from down there.I think if you were on the fence with LAL, the rail makes him a toss.
Mike
What the hell is it with this \"hasn\'t passed any horses\" nonsense I keep seeing? Half the Derby winners in the past 6 years couldn\'t pass a horse in their preps.
MTB couldn\'t pass allowance grade horses at Sunland Park,
Giacomo was a stiff in the stretch of his preps, he passed 10 after coming off the
turn in the Derby.
Funny Cide hadn\'t passed a soul in his life and he stalked and rolled right by the front runners in the Derby.
War Emblem coulda been a toss as well as he hadn\'t beaten anyone. He didn\'t have to in the Derby either but not a whole lot of people seen that coming.
There\'s 4 winners in the past 8 years you tossed out because you believed they couldn\'t pass anyone. IMO, your all just looking for a boogey-man under the bed here where there is none. You\'re assuming he can\'t pass horses because of what? One race?
Who can he pass in the Champagne when he sets the 45.3/1:09.2 pace?
In the Kentucky JC he set the pace, Activity Report pulled 1/2 length ahead of him at the top of the stretch and when Borel asked for the final gear, he goodness gracious, PASSED HIM, and pulled away from the field.
Tampa Bay Derby, first off the layoff, Schoolyard Dreams came around the turn like a bolt of lightning, went ahead a length just as they were coming out of the turn, Dominguez panicked and went to the whip on SS and he took off like a shot, and to the shock of the patrons at Tampa Bay Derby, PASSED Schoolyard Dream, pulling back ahead and led him for a few hundred yards in the stretch, before tiring. Again, first of a layoff, certaintly a good excuse for not being 100% fit.
As far as the Arkansas Derby is concerned, he ran a very grueling 1:36.2 mile and he came home in about 12.3. Not sure what you want to make of that, but I\'ve seen very few people actually giving Line of David credit for his performance there. Esky\'s final prep was a very soft 1:37.2 and he came home in 12.1 and everyone was falling all over themselves to the windows.
I seen an article somewhere about Calvin and Todd talking making a slight switch in tactics for the Derby.
That first turn Super Saver will be 3-5 lengths off the lead and hugging the rail. He\'s already got the field beat right there. If nothing horrible happens the rest of the way he wins the race.
Gomez would be wise to tuck behind Super Saver and follow Borel around the track.
I suspected the work in 48 2/5 would lead to this. Normally, i would not like this scenario because you don\'t change a horses running style. They are creatures of habit. However, I think LOD has peaked and Conveyance isn\'t that fast. I think Borel knows this. So he probably can afford to stalk those 2 and inherit the lead on the turn.
No reason to get excited over a simple question. I like the horse given his draw, but that\'s my concern. That\'s why I asked your thoughts as well as those of others.
BTW, I think you have me confused about tossing out 4 winners the last 8 years with someone else. I\'ve only been posting on this board for just over a year now.
Sorry jack, you weren\'t the one I was referring to, didn\'t mean to take it out on you personally. My bubbling over was an accumulation of seeing multiple posts about how SS was a toss because he hasn\'t pass anyone. As if he chooses not to pass other horses or something which is absurd given the evidence.
American Lion, the fastest horse in the race, and the only horse with a negative number, is 30-1 on the ML and drew well.
Negatives. The race shape indicates that he won\'t get to the lead early, he\'s never really rated, and I am not sure he wants dirt kicked in his face. Pace handicappers like R. Moss hate the way he came home in his last prep but because of the strong headwind in stretch (i think covelj70 mentioned) perhaps it was better than it looked. He did draw away from the favorite. He didn\'t beat much as it was probably the worst prep, but then again neither did the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby from Hawthorne, who was also a front-running type.
Wasn\'t real fast at 2YO so he has already developed 4+ points, and could certainly bounce second time dirt, after synth to dirt jump in last (a 4+ point top). But his race 2 back was a buried 4, and pattern says 33% for a new top.
In a race without an obvious choice, can one do worse than keying a horse that may be 40-1+ by post time that may be the fastest horse in the race, is bred to go long, will be forwardly placed and should move up on an off track. My key.
At worst, he seems likely to be an overlay to me, although R. Moss said he wouldn\'t bet him at 75-1 in his last column.
At least LAL has a rap sheet when it comes to being in traffic (not that it led to him avoiding trouble). Gomez will break him OK.
A lot of these will be facing prolonged company for the first time, and how they respond is not as predictable.
I think Jimbo will be closer than you think.
As far as non-horseplayer money, this gets overblown every year.
Yes, there are many non-horseplayers that play the Derby. But really, how much do they wager?? $2 across on a hopeless longshot?? $5 to win on another?? Non-horseplayers are not throwing around large sums of money on the race. Not every non-horseplayer that attends the Derby is Michael Jordan. He might throw around a few large, but doubtful others would.
In addition to non-horseplayers betting, you get a large influx of people who actually follow racing wagering also. Every weekend warrior plays the Derby. Every horseplayer that doesn\'t play on a regular basis, will be out in force on Derby Day. These players also wager a lot more than non-horseplayers. These people more than cancel out non-horseplayers. In a pool this large, I would think it would be dominated by people who are generally speaking horseplayers.
LAL is no Big Brown or Fu Peg. He will be the favorite, but to think this horse will be 3-1 or 7/2 is questionable at best. This is a wide open Derby and as Jimbo states, I wouldn\'t be surprised to see the favorite - probably LAL - around 9/2. Guess we\'ll find out starting Friday when the pools open.