Can\'t bet Saarland off that fabulous performance.
Came Home is my Derby horse....for now.
MO
What didn\'t you like? If he came out of it good, I\'m sticking with him.
The fact that he had a hot pace to run at on his favorite track and that he barely picked up a hoof, failing to be in the top two (or three, for that matter). What did you see that impressed you?
MO
I hope JB comments on this race. He can correct me if I\'m wrong.
I thought the pace in The Wood was not that quick. Take a look at the fractions for the rest of the day @ AQ.
I saw Saarland close willingly with a wide move through the turn. He had to be within 4 lengths at the finish. And I think it would be foolish to think he was keyed for his best move today when the ultimate goal is the KD.
Add another furlong and I think he makes up those 4 lengths on his best day.
@ 9f, I think it is safe to assume that the front-runners were able to keep some reserve for the finish. I really thought this would be Medaglia d\'Oro\'s day. I was surprised by the performance of Buddha; I did not know he was that good. And I was sure Pincay was gonna get it done @ the wire. Exciting race.
I\'m anxious to hear how Saarland came out of it. I have not heard any comments from Shug or Mott.
I welcome more debate on this subject! Please enlighten me.
Pincay and Day have been in this situation before. Both had something left. I did not see a rail or speed bias after reviewing the charts. But when two horses run head to head around the track and niether quits, there\'s a bias OR these two horses are way better than those they beat that day. So if no bias, Saarland just ain\'t that good. Buddah\'s figure will not be as good as Megdalia d\'Oro\'s and Sunday Break\'s figure is probably going to be better than the both of them. Saarland was only 3 wide (could have been worse) so the fact that he finished so far behind the top 3 makes me think he just ain\'t that good. We shall see.
MO
Mark,
I\'m already in the saarland camp so I\'m biased, but here is why I too am taking a positive stance:
1. barely raising a hoof is very harsh. he was beaten just over 3 lengths and must have made up 2 lenghts right at the end. Would I have liked him to close a little more - yes...but it wasn\'t bad.
2. pace - as mentioned by eb, many other races had sharp(er) splits. my take (being at the @!#$ A, myself yesterday) is that there likely was tailwind in the backstretch (and viceversa in the straight). The flags were moving sharply and planes were shifting (left) so much that I thought one was going to fall. That would explain the final splits, and would make closing ground tougher.
3. in any event, he was (I think) 2w4w. buddha 1w1w. i.e. saarland ran a better number. closer with the other two (SB probably ran a better figure).
4. blue burner (other classy closer) was slightly in front of him all the way, yet a couple back at the finish. so even in your scenario he did better than the other horse supposedly favored by the race.
5. Yesterday I backed first runner-ups (sounds better) lucky devil, mr baskets, for love and honor, medaglia and vodoo (is jerkens hot enough or what?)- yet somehow engineered only one flipping exotic to get some cash in those races. I\'m not betting through the derby and if you believe in lucky cyles (I do when it suits me) mine is scheduled for the first saturday in may.
This looks like a good discussion. Saarland made up 2 and 1/4 lengths in the stretch run of the Gotham. He made up (closed) the same amount of ground in the Wood. Point is that he might be a hanger. His win in the Remsem was not by a big margin either.
I should have video taped the race, but my recollection is that Saarland was 3w on turn 1 and 334w on turn 2. Your point about the wind is a good one. Maybe Saarland\'s race is better than it looked. To me, visually, it just wasn\'t impressive.The debate goes on.
MO
Fastspeed, I\'m confused (who would\'ve guessed).
Are you putting Blue Burner\'s performance ahead of, equal with or behind Saarland\'s?
Also Mark, I didn\'t think I had said there was a speed or rail bias, just that I thought the pace in that particular race wasn\'t significant.
I now assume that yesterday you were referring to Shug & Mott saying the race was paceless.
I can see why my BB reference was confusing (no, I was not suggesting he was on par with saarland). What I meant to say was that, while Mark\'s statement suggested that closers should have been favoured, the other recognized closer (with ability) in the field did not fare very well either (and in fact may have had first run on saarland and yet finished behind him). Not a major point, as clearly you\'re not going to get very far just by bettering blue burner.
talking about blue burner, I was surprised to see harlans quoted at less than 2/1. I believe Fusaichi started longer than that and he was a stronger favourite in my view. FP had beaten east and west coast foes - Harlans has proved he can beat the same group over and over but has not really been tested against other form lines.
Sorry about the misunderstanding. I did not interpret your comments as saying there was a rail bias, I was just pointing out that I saw none, and that it (possible rail bias) could not be used as an excuse.
And I was refering to Mott and Shug\'s comments after the race, each saying there was no pace. Regards.
MO
The Wood reminds me of the Proud Appeal-
Cure the Blues Gotham some years ago; it
ended up smoking both horses, and they
were up the track DD! The top 3 look
like HUGE BOUNCES in their next, and
Saarland is sitting on a big one! I am,
however, commited to Came Home, because
the CD futures prices are too good.
Harlan\'s may have the best \"style\" for
the Derby, but I don\'t like his pedigree.