After about 12 hours of \"sulking\" over the loss of Eskendereya from the race, I decided to \"re-handicap\" the race about midnight last night. (too much caffeine, couldn\'t sleep).
The first question I have to ask is \"who is already fast enough to win, if they run their best\"? I am looking for horses that have 1 or faster. I can\'t see the Derby being won with a \"2\", even though the field is now slowish. Here is the answer to that question (Counting all horses that have 1 and a fraction):
Lookin at Lucky
Noble\'s Promise
American Lion
Ice Box
Stately Victor
Dublin
Jackson Bend
Devil May Care
I am going to adjust this list now by adding in any horse that has maybe not run fast enough yet, but fits two criteria: 1) I am expecting the horse to run a new top AND 2) They are a closer that will benefit from what I expect to be a demanding pace.
Awesome Act
Setsuko
Now, I am going to \"weed out\" the pretenders from the list:
Tossing:
Jackson Bend - likely to be too close to the hot pace and hasn\'t gotten back to his 2 year old top.
Noble\'s Promise - Just not convinced he wants the distance and another that needs to at least track the pace to run his best.
American Lion - A reluctant \"pace\" toss. As a son of Tiznow, he has a right to relish both the dirt and distance. But before the Illinois Derby I had a view he would wire that field because it was paceless and then flop in the Derby. Going to stick with him as a pace casualty.
Ice Box - Big jump up in the Florida Derby. He gets time, but the form of that race has not been flattered with several lousy races by Pleasant Prince. I am expecting bounce.
STately Victor - I am not betting on a keenland polytrack \"jump up\". Forget him.
Dublin - I guess I will use him \"underneath\" but the lousy stretch run in the Arkansas Derby, followed up by questionable works at CD, make him \"un-keyable\" to me.
Setsuko - I think he is an interesting \"suck up\" underneath horse for the Super, but not fast enough to be a key.
Lookin at Lucky - He will be an underlay on the board IMO as he is a plodder/grinder IMO without either true tactical speed or an acceleration in the stretch. As the favorite, I can\'t key him, but will use underneath just because a plodder is likely an OK thing to be in this race filled with \"run and gun\" speed.
That leaves two horses left to choose from for my key. Awesome Act and Devil May Care. I really liked Awesome Act to be my key to finish underneath Eskendereya before the Esky scratch and I think this horse will run a new top and Leparoux at CD is a good thing. But it comes to one point differentiating these two horses. DMC is about 3 points faster (weight adjusted), coming into the race. And since I expect them to be similar odds (maybe 10-1), that makes the filly the key for me. I know it is tough to eliminate races from a horse\'s resume when looking at their form and pattern, but I am willing to put a line through both the Pro-Ride race in the BC and the 1st time out this year, where the filly blew a gasket behind the gate. If you do that, you have a filly that ran an \"8\" 1st time out, then improved to a \"4\" 2nd time out. Then comes back and runs a \"0\" this year (which becomes negative 1 when you adjust for the fact that she gets 5 lbs in the derby). She gets 6 weeks into the Derby and reportedly has been working well at the track. She figures to be off the hot pace and therefore has the right profile for the race this year IMO. I am not a breeding expert, but the connections think she wants to run all day, so I will buy that.
10-1 is about the right price for me to \"buy\" her.
Jim
Did I miss something? Did you leave Sydney\'s Candy off your list because he has been withdrawn? Or are you assuming that Lookin at Lucky and Setsuko, whom he buried, are more likely to jump up on the dirt?
Given how Sadler\'s poly horses have beaten almost everything in sight, going to the dirt, mightn\'t you give SC a mention before you throw him out?
I think he is implying that he didn\'t use Sidney\'s Candy, because he hasn\'t run fast enough to win yet, with a \"3\" as his top. Same reasoning excludes Super Saver. He isn\'t willing to bet on a jump up for his key horse. Not saying I completely agree with him, but that reasoning would have given you the super in 2008. Remembering that year, I think Jimbo is still regretting (and perhaps overcompensating for) his toss of Eight Belles in a race that he handicapped superbly otherwise.
Alm,
I guess I am being a hypocrite with Sydney\'s Candy. I said I am looking for horses that have run a \"1\" or faster. Sydney\'s Candy\'s top is a \"3\". I am saying \"hypocrite\" because I don\'t think TGJB is even close to being right about SC\'s last 3 races, but that is a whole different discussion (which we have all covered before).
But Sydney\'s Candy is the 2nd favorite and has gone \"wire to wire\" to win his last 3 races. I don\'t believe he gets the lead and I am not convinced the horse can rate. If he was 10-1 or higher, I would take the chance that the dirt doesn\'t hurt him AND that he can rate. (breeding leans to synth, with CAndy Ride as the sire).
I don\'t like Lookin at Lucky, but the fact is that his 0 at Oaklawn makes him a contender.
Setsuko is my 35-1 \"suck up\" for the vertical wagers.
As somebody who has \"bet out\" on Sydney\'s CAndy the last two races, I now have to reluctantly toss him at 6-1, as the surface and pace scenario are both factors that make him an underlay IMO.
Jimbo. Do you think Setsuko gets in?
Monmouth,
Yep, you got it.
I only looked at horses to run a new top who I believe would be \"off the pace\" as I believe that expecting any frontrunner to run a new top at 1 1/4 in a race with what is likely to be a ridiculous early pace is too much to ask. (Which is why I am OK to assume \"suck up\" closer Setsuko will run new top).
Now, if somebody clears and 2 or 3 speeds don\'t get out of the gate, then I likely lose my bet. But I am OK to take that risk. Looks to me like you want to be at least 6 to 8 lengths off this pace this year. (similar to what Richie B wrote the other day)
Yeah, Eight Belles. Maybe a good toss at 3-5 in the Oaks, but not so bright at 10-1 in the Derby. Sometimes my stupidity knows no bounds, just ask my wife....
Jim
I thought he got in with Interactif and Rule both being out, but if not, then I screwed up.
I think Make Music for Me, Pleasant Prince and Exhi are the next three in line. Have no idea whether their connections intend to run, hence my question. I agree that Setsuko is a use in the bottom half of exotics if he earns in.
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/earnings.html
Thanks for the post...I get it and appreciate your thinking.
However, I bet people not horses (an assinine statement on the surface, I admit, but I bet a lot of winners thinking this way) and I can\'t get past what Sadler has done in the past few weeks. And it\'s also hard to get past the horse\'s 6f workout at CD.
If he jumps up as much as Line of David and Hurricane Ike this horse doesn\'t have to rate much to stalk and then outrun this field.
Jackson Bend gets in with Rule going out and then Backtalk gets in if Interactif doesn\'t go. Next in Line Make Music for me and Pleasant Prince after finishing 3rd this past weekend. Next in line are A Little Warm and Setsuko. I would use Setsuko if he got into the race but it doesn\'t look like that will happen.
Jimbo
I think your beat already by not including Super Saver somewhere, this horse has a nice line, loves CD, has Borel, 3rd off the layoff, and his pace figs look great, can\'t see him out of top three, otherwise good luck
The lousy races by Pleasant Prince following the Fla Derby were predictable on short rest off a five point jump.
Ramsey had Derby fever and they chased some earnings.I wouldn\'t downgrade Ice Box based on the BG and Derby Trial results of PP.
Rich,
Look me up on the board after the race! Getting beat won\'t surprise me (it is annual derby day occurence), but I don\'t think it will be super saver that does it.
He is my \"poster child\" for handicapping with just figures and patterns, without paying attention to other racing factors.
He couldn\'t pass Line of David (who has a 1% chance to win the Derby) and he is going to beat the rest of these? (almost all of whom are better than Line of David.
No thanks.
Mine That Bird couldn\'t pass a handful of Sunland Park horses.
Street Sense couldn\'t get past Dominican in the Bluegrass.
Giacomo had nothing but a maiden special weight win on his record.
Super Saver not getting past Line of David is a pretty silly reason to completely toss a horse that has shown he\'s fast enough to win the race. Is it not just possible, just a tiny bit possible that Super Saver didn\'t care for the Oaklawn surface? He\'s not the first horse in the world to dislike a track.
Calvin Borel is a genius at getting his horses to relax and store energy during the race. Horses can feel a nervous/panicking jockey on his back and horses won\'t relax. I\'ll take him over a young Joe Talamo, or the countless veteran riders who\'ve failed to win this race. This decade he\'s outperformed the odds on every Derby mount he\'s had. He won this race last year on a horse that NO OTHER JOCKEY ON THE TRACK could of won with. This year he has real horse underneath him.
Leaving this horse off your tickets is a suicide mission. It\'s a very easy decision for me to have him as one of my keys.
Super Savor not getting past Line of David? No Sekrah, he WAS passed Line of David and allowed that one to come back. Didn\'t care for the surface? SS was traveling comfortably through a perfect trip. Certainly didn\'t appear he was climbing or bearing in/out and he ran the turns like a Porsche.
I thought you like Endorsement anyway?
Great start to a good thread, Jimbo, and agree the pace will be demanding. Now a lot of crap comes out of my mouth but occasionally one can find a pearl in all of that. The biggest pearl for me came when I hit the Giacomo-Closing Argument exacta-had always been a Shireffs fan and had won on Closing Argument in his previous start. Sentimal bet. Lucky. Part of the game. But I think this Derby lends itself to a similar set up. Having looked at all the derby preps, my feeling is that the two horses most suited to be relaxed and having something left in the tank for that last 3/16 mile are Ice Box and Stately Victor. I prefer Ice Box on top, once again for sentimental reasoning somewhat, in that Zito compared his recent form to that of Derby winner Strike the Gold, who I also cashed on. I am clueless on how to rate Devil May Care, but will include her in ex and tri boxes. I need a fourth horse and look forward to hearing plan B of mjellish as well as Michael D.\'s input, particularly on Stately Victor.
Sekrah,
I just wish I could book your bets on Super Saver.
This horse has NEVER passed any horse in any race. Do you expect a \"wire to wire\" win now? No, you expect Borel to suddenly become \"magical\" and this horse will now face the toughest pace he will face at the longest distance and he will rate off of it and power home. Please....
He is coming out of the two preps that I believe are near the bottom of the list of preps as far as quality goes this year. I already mentioned that I think it is a HUGE minus that I couldn\'t get by a staggering Line of David, but he also spit the bit in a HORRIBLE Tampa Bay derby where he set his own pace and got passed by two horses that have both come back to run terrible since. So, his \"big race\" was his win over William\'s Kitten?
Forget it. THis horse has maybe a 2% chance to win, at best.
dbrillym,
I can\'t argue with your thoughts on taking two horses that will come from well out if it and may appreciate the distance. They aren\'t the ones I like, but you will certainly get your price if that comes in!!
Yeah, Giacomo over Closing ARgument. Another bad derby memory for me. I had a friend who had a futures wager on Giacomo (he liked the name - he wasn\'t a big gambler). He asked me what I thought of his chances. I told him I would eat his sports jacket if that horse won..... Then, on the day itself, I am at the Meadowlands with some friends and my old man. I liked Bandini a bit that year. My father tells me with about 5 minutes to post, why don\'t we throw in $20 a piece and \"wheel the two Italian horses on top in the exactas for the hell of it\" (bandini and giacomo). (my last name is \"de cicco\"). I tell my dad, \"I am a serious handicapper and don\'t make silly bets like that.............\"
I think the exacta may have paid 10k, if I am not mistaken. I must have heard that story from him about a dozen times at different events over the past few years.........
Maybe, but I see it a little differently, Tampa Bay first time out, tough track to get a handle on. That second race, was just that a second off the layoff, if he runs 15ft quicker, he runs the 1 or so, and everyone jumps on him. I don\'t see that race as a bad second off the layoff, I see it as a jumping off point for a horse and jock who obviously take to CD. We\'ll see soon.
RICH,
Understand your view, but I am just not willing to give the horse the two excuses you give him, especially in light of the race dynamics he will face in the Derby. I believe for him to have a real shot, multiple speeds would have to \"stumble at the start\" or get \"shut off\".
I would need to have seen this horse show he can pass a horse sometime in his career before the Derby to think he can do it on the 1st Saturday in May.
That is pretty hilarious Jimbo
jimbo
That passing other horses is a good point, there are 6 early and 7 e/p horses, I don\'t think we\'ve seen a derby like this ever?
You know I respect your analysis...but have to say this. SS is 3rd off a layoff...he is one of the first horses I\'ve seen Pletcher bring to the Derby off races that were real preps and not all-out attempts to grab a purse.
I don\'t think that this horse can win, but I think it may run bigger than its prep races and hit the board on Saturday.
By the way, some Cali backstretch guys are saying LAL\'s problem issue is a back problem. Has anyone heard that before?
I don\'t think SS not passing LOD had anything to do with not liking the track. If anything that track should have moved him up with it\'s downward pitch. So I agree with Jimbo that this is a pretty big negative for this horse.
IMO you are right about Calvin though. He definately knows his way around Churchill. He had SS skimming the rail in his last work, and the horse seems to like Churchill and doesn\'t look like he could possibly be doing any better. If you think these things move him up enough to get the distance, and you think he will rate comfortably behind the pace and fire in the stretch, then you almost have to use him. But the fact that Borel is on him is not exactly a secret, and I think he will go off as an underlay simply because of this when compared to what I believe his fair odds should be. I would need to get about 30-1 to consider him for a win bet or key, but that\'s just me.
So for me, although he is more of a toss, I will probably use him definsively underneath only. I don\'t want to get beat by a horse that is working well, seems to like the strip and has Calvin on him at Churchill. But I don\'t want to waste much money on him either because I think he is going to have to run the race of his life to get there and really doesn\'t want any part of 1 1/4.
Just my opinion. But I\'m sort of an all or nothing guy and I have to take a few stands somewhere.
I\'m so pissed the filly is in the Derby. I REALLY liked her for the Oaks. I think she is a must use for the Derby at about 12-1 or so. She could win this thing with a decent trip.
Rich,
I don\'t remember a derby where there were this many early and e/p horses. I don\'t know if it will be the fastest derby pace ever because Songandaprayer winged it on the front end in the Monarchos year, Keyed Entry and Sinister Minister went wild in the Giacomo year and I thnk it was Groovy who put away Snow Chief in the Ferdinand year, but there are MORE front-runners than any derby in my memory.
Normally, I would say speed is an asset in that you can get position, save ground, etc.etc. but not this year. I also think that the plethora of speed horses makes the post position draw a little less important. In a field with a bunch of speed horses, the field is likely to get strung out further than the normal which allows for more paths for the closers. Nothing worse than a slow pace for traffic in a 20 horse field. I had Vicar from post 19 the year they crawled up front and I think I was 10w into the first turn.
Havent seen many posts here actually refer to all the previous racing as a true prep until ALM mentioned it and I think its key with SS and also a few others, specifically Awesome Act. Everything else aside, some trainers are much better at pointing to a race than others and really believe that euro trainers do that better than most. I see a Stately Victor type Bluegrass performance out of this animal. I watched his BC Juv Turf race and he closed a ton ... Still it\'s all about the price and believe he will be an underlay ...
Don\'t most Derby winners \"run the race of their lives\" in the Derby, or, at least, isn\'t that\'s what\'s expected of them?
Yes. That\'s exactly my point. I don\'t think SS will run the race of his life at 1 1/4. But that\'s just me. I can see why others would like him.
MJ-- okay, I need to know how downward pitch helps one horse in a race and not the others.
Helps front runners. They get to it first. Watch two guys riding bikes sometime. Let\'s say one is in front of the other by 20 feet or so and they hit a downhill slope. The one that hits it first will gain speed first and therefore gain distance on the other. I\'m not saying this should have given SS an edge on LOD. But it helps front runners in general. My main point was that there is no evidence to support that SS did not like the Oaklawn track.
Bike races are all \"pace\" races, I would think, which is a different situation. With horses they use all their energy and all travel the same distance on the flat and the \"pitch\". The final time for each will be equally affected.
TGJB,
Who makes better figures for the motocross tour, you or Rags?
You think you are kidding, but I just got off the phone with a guy that wanted to know if we could help him buy mares to breed to a quarter horse stallion.
Do you remember \'Ussery\'s Alley\' at Aqueduct in the 60s? Those horses weren\'t running the same speed when they came down off that hill.
Whatever the effects were, in that case, some of the horses were coming off the hill, and some were not.
Alm - the \"sore behind\" is definitely being talked about on the radio for sure...but then the next guy says he\'s never seen Baffert so relaxed and confident. Records are made to be broken.
Good point...that\'s what made Ussery so great...find an advantage and hammer it.
He spit the bit off a 3 1/2 month layoff. Oh No. Toss him.
Mine That Bird couldn\'t pass anybody at Sunland Park.
Giacomo couldn\'t pass anyone in the stretch prior to the Derby.
Funny Cide didn\'t pass anyone in his 3 yo preps.
War Emblem never passed anyone (and I guess he didn\'t have to in the Derby either, but he did in the Preakness.)
Real Quiet looked like a horse that couldn\'t pass anyone in his preps.
If Borel rates Super Saver off the leaders, he wins this race going away. At 15 or 20-1, excellent value betting on Mr. Churchill to do just that.
You\'re handicapping last year\'s Derby...it\'s over.
Calvin has had a great run, but there have been others who won a couple of Derbies in a few years, but never won again.
Find another story line...
Sekrah,
Stop drinking during the work day.
Your posts are making less and less sense as the thread continues.
You like Super Saver. He has competitive figures and may like the track. YOu will be well paid if he wins. But He has nothing in comparison with Giacomo, Funny Cide, Mine that Bird, War Emblem, or Real Quiet.
Great analysis by Jimbo. Haven\'t had any time until now to handicap much of anything this spring. Eagerly awaiting tomorrow\'s seminar. Meantime - In looking at this bunch, I\'ve deduced that the only possible win cadidates are those who have the natural desire to win a horse race and those that are bred for the 10f. I\'m not playing anyone for the top two slots that has less than three wins in their brief career. Here\'s the short list of potential winners based on the \"who likes to win races\" theory. Here\'s the short list:
*L @ Lucky - 6 for 8 life
*Sidney\'s Candy - 4 for 6 life
*Jackson Bend - 5 for 9 life
Conveyeance - 4 for 5 life (probably won\'t make the distance but might hang on for 3rd or 4th at big odds)
I beleive Sid, Jackson Bend or LAL will be the most likely winner of this year\'s race and will play it accordingly.
Underneath my main three (and on top in small savers) on all my tix will include:
Conveyeance
Ice Box
DMC (f)
American Lion
Endorsement
Dublin
Mission Impazible
Super Saver
$20 exacta 123/1234567891011 = $600
$1 Trifecta 123/1234567891011/1234567891011 = $270
$1 Supe 123/123/1234567891011/1234567891011 = $432
Jeremy Nosada answering a question BEFORE the Wood Memorial.
Stumes: Preparing your horse for the Kentucky Derby or any dirt race, is the horse being trained differently? And like he was in England before the Gotham, is he trained differently than you would normally train a European grass horse?
Jeremy Noseda: Yeah, I mean now when we\'ve gone to - you know since we\'ve been at Belmont you know we\'re training him like an American horse which I\'m going to be very honest with you, I don\'t feel quite as comfortable with that as I do training here back at Newmarket. But you know that\'s what we\'ve got to do you know and that\'s what we\'ve got to do if we\'re going to arrive in Kentucky. You know being very frank with you though is an element after the Gotham where you know I stood there you know two hours after the race and thought to myself thought would I love to be able to take him back to Newmarket and then get him ready for the Kentucky Derby in Newmarket. But that isn\'t the case and you know we\'ve had our changes training like you know it\'s only a subtle difference but he\'s training as an American horse would train now. It seems to be suiting him. My query going in to this race on Saturday is that there could be an element with, you know, the performance he put up in the Gotham which is most likely a lifetime better performance coming off of break. You know, the traveling, the change of scenery, there\'s a little question in my mind. You know he is a possibility to bounce on Saturday, you know I\'m prepared for that. I hope he doesn\'t regress too much off his last performance. You know, the other thing which is you know I\'ve been careful with the traveling and with that first run, I have taken it quite easy with him since the Gotham and with the rain arriving this week in New York. And you know missing my final piece of work most probably because of the - you know the sloppy track there, you know we could turn up on Saturday maybe being - maybe just lacking that edge of fits we had in the Gotham. But if that\'s the case you know as long as he runs well in the Wood, big day lies ahead on the first Saturday in May so we\'ll take it from there and see how we go.
Hey Jimbo, new over here at thorograph forum. Probably some of the most insightful stuff I have seen in a while. I am pretty much on the same stuff you are but I will be playing Lookin at lucky ATB because I think I will get 4-1 and I think he is going to run either a 0 or a - number. The one thing I tend to agree with a few other\'s is super saver. I know everyone is hating on the fact that he couldn\'t get past Line of David but he really had a few excuses. 1) Line of David got loose on the lead and was really able to slow down the race from the 6 furlong pole to the mile pole (1:10 - 1:36). I believe this allowed him to save enough to withstand super saver. I also believe Oaklawn is a very tough place to catch a loose horse on the lead. 2)This was pretty much the first time super saver was asked to rate. Yeah maybe that is not a big deal but I believe any change for a horse is asking a lot. Just like I don\'t believe Sidney will be able to rate in a 20 horse field with dirt/mud getting kicked in his face for the first time. It\'s not the place to try new things. 3) finally the horse just loves CD. he ran his top as a 2yo here and now he is 3rd off the cycle heading to the place he loves. I know third of the cycle doesn\'t mean as much with todd pletcher but just maybe this horse will make the appropriate progression.
-I really don\'t believe he will win this thing but he still makes my top 3. I think he will get a great trip and he is proven to love the track. Hopefully Borel can hold him back long enough for the tired horses to drift out on that last turn and sneak up the rail. My current top 3 are LAL, Awesome, Super Saver with Devil may care sitting on the outside.
I too like LAL-as I said earlier, being on dirt, no blinkers and the added distance of the derby spell a top to me. as for SS, I\'m only considering him for 3rd or 4th at best. this horse has not passed another horse in his last 5 races. hard to see him finishing any better saturday. where do you think he will be after a mile? that\'s probably the position he\'ll finish in. my plays with LAL will be ICE and ENDO for 2nd, with a bigger bunch for 3rd and 4th. good luck to all.
I too question the removal of blinkers. I remember last year he would shut down after getting to the lead which is why baffert put on the hood. I also can understand why most people think Super Saver will not win. I guess what I see in the horse is an ideal trip over a track he loves. What this calculates to me is a good chance to repeat his prior three performances. This field is less then stellar and a lot of the better horses will be compromised by either trying to change their styles/being on the dirt for the first time/pace situation and I think SS was pretty relaxed last race. I think it is very likely he runs another 2 and a small possibility he improves to a 0-1. Even a 2 could possibly win this race because horses I like such as AA and Lookin could be compromised by wide trips and a lot of ground to make up. We could see a race where they both run 0 or -1 and a horse like super saver wins with a 2 with a great trip. Who really knows.
Thanks for a thoughtful post about LAL, but I think your conclusioin about him is off. Baffert is training the horse as if he is trying to keep him in one piece and to keep him in the race. He had the jock shut him down at the end of his last work. He\'s worried...that\'s not normal.
Maybe the horse will get through the Derby and fire a big number, as you suggest, but I believe there is an equally strong liklihood he won\'t run big.
As for AA, read the post above, which quotes Noseda. If that inspires confidence in you for your betting, you need to reconsider your thinking overall on this race. He\'s practically telling you that he has completely altered his training on this horse and now hopes for the best.
Don\'t bet his hope...bet the sound horses with good numbers coming into the race with no excuses.
I see LAL as a horse who fits the pattern of \"throw out\" based on last years seminar. His races are slow - except the 1 dirt race, from which he should have bounced despite the bad trip. He is supposed to keep tailing off, as is Noble\'s Promise. The premise being that horses run 1 good race after switching to dirt from poly and then bounce, tail off.
Sidney\'s Candy is another SLOW horse who should not like dirt as much as poly.
Devil May Care is fast but the 0 is a huge jump. She did not look good to me working. In fact of all the horses working in the YouTube videos, the most impressive was Discreetly Mine. He looked like he was really enjoying his work over the track while the filly ran with her head high.
In the Oaks,
Blind Luck is another who figures to bounce big time Friday off that negative number. The Oaks comes down to Tidal Pool, Amen H, Champagne D\'oro and Quiet Temper. Should make for some juicy Oaks/Derby doubles.
I hear everyone talking about SLOW horses but no one even gives Nobles Promise any consideration? Are we using the same data? lol
Correct alm, hoping is for old ladies
The DRF has a nice write up on him today, they know what there doing. Nosada hasn\'t even been here, Assmussen appears to be involved with some decisions with this horse, beware
Alm,
I won\'t factor in the \"trainer speak\" from Noseda. Last time I listened to a trainer talk it was Larry Jones, after he had Hard Spun work out in 57 a few days before the derby, which everybody criticized (me too). I then listened to him speak about the workout and combination of the \"drawl\" and all the \"you know\'s\" made me think he was in idiot, so decided to get off Hard Spun as my key under Street Sense....
Noseda doesn\'t sound too bright either, if those are direct quotes. But the horse has perked up in workouts and gallups the last few days (for what that is worth). And the race sets up for his style.
jbrown007
Are you the 7th child of Jerry Brown :) Anyway, I can\'t blame you for landing on Lookin At Lucky, but IMO it breaks a cardinal rule of betting on horses (my rule, not a general rule). I can\'t bet a favorite who has no discernable edge over the rest of the horses. Eskendereya was a rare favorite that I would have bet because he was significantly faster than the competition. LAL has the one fast figure, and even that figure is at best \"as fast\" as a few others. His others are slower (albeit potentially somewhat irrelevant because they are synthetic figs). Hard to take him as the favorite. There has to be better value in the race IMO. (and I think there is) This doesn\'t even factor in the horse\'s potential to get in trouble (which is not just \"bad luck\" IMO, I think it is because of his style, which is that of a \"grinder\" - yes, I know that not everybody agrees with that, but we are all allowed our opinions/interpretations). I also laugh when I see writers talk about how LAL was moving up and would have beat Sydney\'s Candy in the Santa Anita Derby. Forget it. No shot he had.
Are we going to start this debate all over again?:)
Jimbo I agree that the numbers are pretty equal among the top contenders but i am one to have a lot of faith in Bob Baffert. He is not the type of trainer to bullshit and he is not the type of trainer that has his horses ready to fire their top number off the bench. thorograph shows that 20% of the time they reach top number third off the bench. Considering Baffert said he was not 100% cranked and ran a 0 in the Ark Derby that is enough for me to believe he can fire bigger and better then that. If there was one horse i would be willing to wager on top other then lucky it would have to be Devil because we just don\'t know how good she is. She has a nice running style and maybe the blinkers will really get her focused.
-As far as Awesome Act. I had to fight with myself to put him in my top 3. I understand he has solid thorograph numbers but am I the only one who watches this horse battle his jockey in every race he runs? I have a cardinal rule that if a horse can\'t relax I will not put him on my tickets in the Kderby. Easiest toss I ever made was Lawyer ron just from watching him fight his jockey every race he ran. Yes I think AA is a very talented horse but they are still schooling him at churchill because he has not figured it all out yet. I am also banking on the pace setting up for AA to drop back off the early speed and leperoux just letting the horse progressively move up instead of fighting him the entire race.
-I do not believe LAL would have won that race vs Sidney\'s Candy but I think we will have a different scenario come derby day. A lot of inferior horses can step up and beat better horses when they get loose on the lead with slow fractions. Horse isnt going to be sitting on the lead with 24 48 fractions.
jbrown,
Good points. I didn\'t mean to say that YOU thought LAL would have beat SC in the Santa Anita derby, I heard it last night from a \"professional handicapper\" and have heard it from a few other people recently as well. Agree with you 100% that the derby is a whole different animal.
jimbo. You are probably going to laugh at me but I just decided that I am going to use Noble\'s Promise as well. Now I am working with AA,LAL,Noble,Devil,Super Saver. If the track comes up wet Cuvee is currently hitting at 29% on an offtrack. The number is unheard of. The horse is light on his feet and I believe he should skip over the track. You can also look at the sire stats and see cuvee only wins on synthetic at a 12% clip yet wins on dirt at 19% so there is was little doubt he would move up on the dirt. The 13% at a mile and over is a little disturbing and I know everyone believes he may have distance limitations but this horse is a fighter. He should have a nice trip breaking from post 3 and sitting behind the front runners. Super saver and Line are to his outside and they should clear. Ice box to his inside should allow him to get some space. Now i know the lung infection is a major concern. In 1995 Tejano run was trained by mcpeek and he had lung issues and also foot issues however mcpeek got him right and he ran 2nd. McPeek is another trainer who sets his horses to run new tops 3rd of the bench. He is really training strong and he blew by a nice looking filly beautician the other. Welsch said he galloped out the best of all the workers in his last work and the rider said it was PERFECT. This is a push button horse. This is a horse who i liked a lot but jumped off after the ARK derby and lung infection. He is working great, scoping clean and his numbers are more then competitive. In fact he has pretty much been on an improving pattern since his 2 year old campaign. This horse could just sail up to 15 or 20-1 on derby day because nobody gives him a chance. If it comes up wet I am willing to bet him to win place show at huge odds.
Lay it on us!
Dbrillym,
THe odds are up to 60% on the thundershowers now. I am hoping for \"no\" on the sloppy track.
I don\'t want to \"re-handicap\" it yet because that could be \"bad kharma\", but I will say a couple things.
When the track at Churchill gets very sloppy, it is usually speed-favoring (like a lot of tracks). The year that Smarty Jones won, it was very clear that Lion Heart got helped by that track, as a smallish horse that \"skipped over\" the surface, I remember Mike Smith saying after the race that he felt great about his chances on that track and he was somewhat surprised that Smarty went by him. If we get sloppy on Saturday, I will re-handicap though, because the race changes. I would NOT play for a pace collapse on the wet track. 1st off, I don\'t think there would be as many pace players, because of the fact that several in the field won\'t like the surface, they will be unable to keep up early as they normally would have been able to.
At first glance, I would move Noble\'s Promise into the contender\'s list, being out of the Carson City line and also thinking that the 1 1/4 distance becomes less of an issue on a sloppy surface. I would also move Paddy\'s Prado way up, because that horse has worked the best this week. But both works were on sloppy surfaces. We don\'t REALLY know if the horse likes dirt yet, but we do know that he reveled in the slop in the workouts and is an improving horse as Mjellish has pointed out.
From the ESPN PP draw article:
Heavy rain is forecast for the Louisville area beginning late Friday and continuing into Derby Day. The National Weather Service is calling for a 60 percent chance of showers Saturday, with a rain accumulation of 1½ to 2 inches.
Even under wet conditions, a crowd well in excess of 100,000 is expected.
EDIT - just went to the national wether service website and looked thru more details and maps, I\'d bet 10-1 it will be sloppy and very, very wet.
http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/kentucky.php
If it does rain - who has the \"Frog\" information? After MTB blew it up last year, someone (can\'t remember who) came with \"That horse had a very high frog in his hoofs making it easy for him to negotiate the mud easily.\"
Got Frog? H.F.I. - High Frog Info!
Joe Riddell usually posts that, but his URL is no longer active and his twitter acct says \"have a great summer\", which to me means he might not be posting Derby analysis this year?
Using foot analysis has been laughed at on this board in the past, but I strongly believe that handling the surface comes before number power, and this is a piece of that puzzle. Last year might not be a good measuring stick, however, as it would seem the track will be completely soaked, if not sealed, whereas last year it was a drying-out slime, somewhere between sloppy and muddy.
jbrown,
Agree with you (on a wet track).
On a dry track, I don\'t think Noble\'s Prominse will get the 1 1/4.