On Ragozin, Dublin\'s last is only 1/2 point worse than Eskenderaya\'s last.
Makes sense to me.
Yikes,
That is a mess. Obviously wrong, but Dublin has to be this year\'s \"king of the phony big wide figure\" horse. This horse was 3w/3w from the 2-hole at Arkansas. Can\'t imagine what kind of trip he gets in the Derby.
He doesn\'t look bad on TG either (not to Esky\'s level), but you could argue his pattern is pretty good, with paired tops and being as fast as anybody but Eskendereya.
Jimbo-- there are a couple of other horses a point or two faster than Dublin. But as far as the ground goes, both horses were roughly 3w3w last time.
Not quite Street Sense getting the same Rag number for his Derby and Blue Grass, but pretty bad.
The Street Sense Derby/Blue Grass may be the best example in the last 5 years of getting the variant wrong.
But if I was a user of Rags, the number of examples where the variant was OK, but the ground loss for each horse was off siginificantly, would actually bother me more (because it is the mechanical and scientific part of the process and there should be no errors).
I don\'t remember those examples, but they had been posted here over the years.
Not sure what to make of Dublin. Honest colt who appears to be one of those money earners/money burners. He needs to do a better job of handling turns and it does not bode well for his chance in that he failed to pass a bearing out SS and an allowance front runner.
I would argue that Rule\'s figure is more impressive .
Good Luck,
Joe B.
The thing that bothers me the most about Dublin is, if you look at the TGIs of his many siblings, many that were sired by router influence sires, they\'re all better sprinters. The sheet #s would put him in the exotics, but all those sprinting siblings & the hanging in the stretch at Oaklawn has me leaning toss.
Dublin\'s pro/con arguements seem relatively obvious and agreeable (for this board). For me at least, the question to use or toss comes down to price, i.e. with his figures he is useable as a tri and super key at a big price. I assumed with a no-name jock and his 2nd and 3rds this year he\'d be a bomb but maybe not according to some. Looks like it could be a race day decision; 30-1 seems fair value. I don\'t see how TG (or Rags!) users could toss him out at a bigger price considering the pros (esp. consistency on dirt) and the all or nothing nature of the polys.
I set the over/under for Dublin at 20-1.
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> I set the over/under for Dublin at 20-1.
I think that\'s too high Jim. 13 to 15-1 maybe. Could be wrong, but the horse just looks so good on the track, and he\'s been flying in the morning.
Alright Michael,
I guess that means you are \"down for a beer\" at Saratoga on the \"under\".
I\'m with Jimbo here.. closer to 20.. I would of actually guessed 22-24. I can name 6 horses for sure he\'ll be behind IMO:
Esky
LAL
Sidneys Candy
Ice Box
Endorsement
Rule
and another two that could slip ahead of him: Conveyance, Super Saver
How many 8th or 9th choices are less than 20-1 in a 20-horse Derby where there\'s a clear 2-1 favorite? Not many. The 8th choice in 1998 was Visionaire at 25-1.
In 2005 when Bellamy Road was 5/2, only 6 choices were cheaper than 20-1.
He\'ll be behind Rule and Ice Box until the 8th pole when both of them start dropping off the radar.
Um, I clearly meant on the toteboard.
Sekrah, you\'re referring to 2008 with Visionaire. Also that year Denis of Cork was 27-1 in that weak field and he won the Southwest unlike Dublin and he also had Borel. Plus, he was the rage at CD leading up to the race according to blood horse (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/44892/behindatthebar-skips-denis-of-cork-in)
Denis of Cork has been a hot topic on the backstretch at Churchill Downs in the days leading up to the Derby where his sharp workouts and aggressive morning gallops marked him as major contender for the 134th Kentucky Derby
and since when does Lucas get bet in the derby? When push comes to shove no public handicapper will have to guts to pick him and he\'ll be forgotten by post time.
I agree.. I don\'t think there\'s a chance Dublin goes off cheaper than 20-1. I\'m all in on the over on jimbo\'s bet.
Horses showing 0 wins, 1 place, 2 shows, 2 OTM\'s in their last 5 don\'t get bet in the Derby.
Hell, I forgot about Awesome Act, both may go off higher than Dublin as well. Dublin could be 10th or 11th choice, easy. To the layman, he looks even much worse than American Lion, Jackson Bend, Line of David, Paddy O\'Prado,
I think Dublin is going to be overbet and will be about 9-1 post time. I\'m not sold on him loving Churchill Downs.
9-1. LMAO. Hope that was a joke.
No and I was the morning line handicapper at Delaware Park for 2 years.
It\'s Lukas. If the horse wins or hits the board, everyone will wonder how they didn\'t see it - it was Lukas.
Mo:
That\'s fine but 20 horses and a 2-1 favorite does not translate to 9-1 for Dublin who figures to be no better than 5th choice.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Dublin, 0 for his last 5 with only 1 graded stakes win as a 2 year old, won\'t pay any less than 20-1. You can write that fact down on a check, take it to the bank, and cash it. In the final future pool late March, they opened him at 15-1, and he closed at 18-1, that was before he crapped all over the Oaklawn frontstretch. That was before several horses drastically improved their resume (Esky, Sidney, Endorsement, and others). I would just love to see another example of a horse that closed at around 18-1 in the final futures pool, diminished his resume in his final prep, and then went off at cheaper than 10-1 in the Derby.
Even sportsbooks whose customers are semi-knowledgable in the sport and recognize some of Dublin\'s underlying value and potential are carrying 20-1 on the horse. There is absolutely nothing squarish about Dublin past performances that would induce public wagering on him in the biggest public betting race in the year.
Horses without wins don\'t get bet by the public in the Kentucky Derby!
Horses 0 for their last 5 heading into the Kentucky Derby (since 2005)
2005 - Giacomo (5-0-2-2), 50-1
2006 - None
2007 - Liquidity (5-0-2-1), 40-1
2008 - None
2009 - West Side Bernie (5-0-2-1), 32-1
2009 - Join In The Dance (5-0-1-1), 51-1
2009 - Atomic Rain (5-0-2-1), 55-1
2009 - Flying Private (5-0-3-0), 46-1
Hell, lets look at horses with 1 win out of their last 5 heading into the Derby.
2005 - Wilko (5-1-0-3), 21-1
2005 - Closing Argument (5-1-2-2), 71-1,
2006 - Jazil (5-1-3-0), 24-1
2006 - Deputy Glitters (5-1-1-0), 60-1
2006 - Seaside Retreat (5-1-1-1), 52-1
2006 - Storm Treasure (5-1-3-0), 51-1
2006 - Flashy Bull (5-1-1-1) 43-1
2007 - Sedgefield (5-1-3-0), 58-1
2007 - Zanjero (5-1-1-3), 36-1
2007 - Storm in May (5-1-1-2), 27-1
2007 - Imawildandcrazyguy (5-1-1-0), 28-1
2007 - Sam P. (5-1-2-1), 43-1
2007 - Tiago (4-1-1-1) 14-1
2008 - Anak Nakal (5-1-1-0), 53-1
2008 - Big Truck (5-1-1-0), 28-1
2008 - Z Humor (5-1-0-1), 63-1
2009 - Mr. Hot Stuff (5-1-0-3), 28-1
2009 - Advice (5-1-1-1), 49-1
2009 - Nowhere To Hide (5-1-0-1), 45-1
2009 - Summer Bird (3-1-0-1), 43-1
Only Tiago broke 20-1 out of the 1-time winners, and he was the toast of the west coast fresh off his SA Derby win.
Dublin reminds me of Wilko who went off at 21-1. Big 2-year old win followed up by measley ITM prep finishes.
My final argument: 13 horses have a better Beyer figure than Dublin\'s best of 97. In the public eye, this horse is a complete and total stiff.
23 to 1.
He will take money simply because of the Lukas factor. I figure him to be an underlay because of that based on what I believe his actual chances to win this thing are going to be. He\'ll also probably be an underlay in the exotics as well because on paper he also looks to have a decent shot to hit the board.
What Lukas factor? His last 5 Derby starts.
2009 - Flying Private, 46-1
2005 - Going Wild, 59-1
2003 - Ten Cents A Shine, 37-1
2003 - Scrimshaw, 16.50-1 (Morning Line of 15-1, coming off a strong Lexington win [99 beyer] over Domestic Dispute. He also had a 104 beyer as a 2-year old. This was also a 16-horse field.)
2002 - Proud Citizen, 23-1
Yea. Lukas horses gets hammered. Those 4 wins in his last 145 graded stakes really stands out on the page. Horses that don\'t win, don\'t get bet. There\'s 19 other horses in the race, many with a series of bigtime graded stakes wins coming into the race but the public is going to throw money at the horse that doesn\'t win? It doesn\'t happen that way. Dean\'s Kitten looks better to Joe Q. Public than Dublin.
Trust me. The guy has won a few derbies, people will be talking about him and dublin will get bet more than he should.
I hope you are right.
I like this 0 for 5 angle. Great ROI!
MO,
If he goes off at 9-1 I\'ll eat the TG sheets for the Derby.......
That is ridiculous.
MJ,
The \"Lukas angle\" is older than the dosage angle and AT BEST is worth a tick or two. So,maybe he goes off at 17 or 18 to 1, instead of 22-1 or 23-1. Nowhere near 9-1. Yeah, I could see him getting bet into the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots of th exotics, because the horse does seem to look like he could be \"in the mix\" for minor spoils. And if he ever got a trip, I could see him in the Super.
Evidence?
I completely, 10,000% disagree and just showed you my proof why, I just demonstrated, the best Lukas Derby horse in his last 5 starts actually rose from the morning line and Scrimshaw had a better 3yo resume in a much smaller field. Dublin will be 20-1 ML, EASY and his odds will rise from that. I clearly showed that there is no large public mob hammering Lukas\' horses anymore. But we\'re all just suppose to just \"trust you\" that it\'s so. So for the record please, what odds do you believe he will go off at?
He may be 20-1 to win. But in my opinion that is still an underlay. To my eye he looks like a sucker horse. He should have absolutely blown by LOD in the ARK derby. He got the perfefct set up. He keeps getting wide trips. He just never seems to get there. So I more or less don\'t give him any chance to win, but that\'s just me.
That being said, he is fast enough to be competetive and has a decent shot to hit the board IMO.
He\'ll be 20 to 25-1 because of his 2yo and winter hype, not because of the trainer
He\'s a splitting image of Wilko who won the BC Juvy, got alot of Derby hype as this big Euro invader and didn\'t do anything in his preps, he went off at 21-1, but atleast you only had to go back 4 races to find his win.
You have to go back 6 races to find Dublin\'s win. Nobody is betting this horse and I may be getting him too much credit and with all due respect to the Delaware Park morning line handicapper, I wouldn\'t be shocked to see him climb past 25-1 and go off closer to 30-1.
Here\'s a guess at the general odds. Assuming that Interactif drops out and Jackson Bend gets in.
Eskendereya Favorite 5 -2
Sidney\'s Candy and Looking At Lucky next at about 5 -1
Endorsement next +-12 -1
Paddy O\'Prado, Ice Box and American Lion next +-15 -1
Super Saver, Mission Impazible, Line Of David, Rule,
Awesome Act all in group +-25 -1
Noble\'s Promise, Stately Victor, Dublin, Conveyance,
Homeboykris, Jackson Bend, Descreetly Mine and
Dean\'s Kitten all +-40 -1
This continues to look to me like the 2008 group where you had Big Brown at 5 - 2 and Pyro and Colonal John +- 5 -1; Eight Bells, Z humor, Gayego and Z fortune all between 10 and 20 -1; Court Vision, Denis of Cork, Big Truck, Adriano, Bob Black Jack and Cowboy Cal between 20 and 30 -1; Monba, Visionaire and Tale of Ekati from 30 to 40 -1 and Smooth Air, Cool Coal Man, Recapturetheglory and Anak Nakal all over 40 -1. The longest odds that year was Anak Nakal at 53.9 - 1. In other words after an clear three most likely, another half dozen or so possibles and the rest outsiders.
In 2008 the fav won combined with the fourth and ninth choices for a $3,500 $2 tri. With one of the outsiders getting up for fourth the super paid $58k for $2.
If eightyfiveinafifty gets and JB drops out I think he moves into the +- 25 range.
In 2008 $48,000,000 was bet into the WPS pools. Given the general decline in handle since than what the board\'s opinion of how a drop of $3,000,000 or $4,000,000 might impact the odds or does the decline just go pro rata.
Assuming a nuetral draw, I would think the ML on Dublin will be 15-1. Because he is trained by Lukas and there has been a fair amount hype about this horse (this is Lukas\' first real contender in a long time) he will take more money than he should. Unless he gets a really bad post or has some really negative press of some sort, I would be shocked if he drifted up as high as 25-1. I\'m thinking he goes off more around 18-1 or 20-1 or so with a neutral draw. You can\'t compare this guy to some of Lukas\' recent derby starters because they were more or less outsiders coming in. This guy was second choice at 2.7-1 in the ARK derby, and to be honest I thought he looked best on paper going in. I didn\'t bet the race, but I made him the most likely winner.
Big, strong horse. But he\'s obviously some type of a head case and Lukas hasn\'t figured him out yet. Look at the way he blew his last work. Supposed to work in company and Dublin tore off and passed his workmate within the first 1/8th. If this horse every figured it out he could be awefully dangerous because he has some talent. I think you almost have to include him underneath on some of your tickets. Just hope he doesn\'t suddenly figure it out during this race because as of right now I am not going to have him in the win postition on any tickets.
Dublin closed at 10-1 at both Wynn and Lucky (Tues 4/20). He\'s the very solid 3rd choice in the win the triple crown bet at 35-1. Not reliable numbers by any stretch, but the only other prices I\'ve seen are from the UK books, and those aren\'t even close on these things until a few days before the race.
From what I can gather, interest revolves around 3 angles: 1) best looking horse out of the 20, 2) stalker/closer in a race full of pace, and 3) fits on figures.
I wouldn\'t predict 10-1, but I like the under with 20-1 as the number.
My online book has 20-1. I see another book with him at 25-1 at this moment. Anyone betting 10-1 on Dublin at a book is carrying a Forrest Gump IQ, let alone 35-1 to win the TC.
If he goes off at 30:1, he\'s going to be filling out the bottom of a lot of my tickets. For what it\'s worth, I see him on 3 different online gambling sites as low as 9:1 and as high as 14:1. His name itself will have the one or two day a year crowd using him...
This is the dilemma with Dublin. Even if he goes off at 20-1, he is going to be a huge underlay in the place and show pools as well as the lower parts of exotic tickets. He is fast enough to win if Esky stubs a toe, but a huge risk because his worst races were here at CD. And they were his worst races BY FAR. He doesn\'t like this track and Lukas is blowing smoke up our asses. I have to take that position until Dublin proves otherwise. The complaints about the Arkansas Derby are off base. That was a damn good race chasing 2 lone speeds, but he had already shown he could handle Oaklawn so one could argue the figure he earned might be downgraded when applying it to the KY Derby.
What are these sites?
I see CRIS outlets at 16-1
SIA 20-1
Will Hill 25-1
Gotta wonder why Thompson is Lukas\'s choice to ride. Horse loves Saratoga.....
Sekrah,
I would give up on it. There are no \"reputable\" or \"real\" betting sites out there offering 9-1. The ones that are don\'t want action on the Derby, because the \"takeout\" works out to be 60% or higher.
Michael D,
Those books in vegas offer bullshit lines on the Derby futures at this point. 35-1 on the triple crown, are you kidding me? 10-1 on the futures? Yeah, OK. The takeout is HUGE.
When Pinnacle puts a line out, you can put some credence in it. Their takeout is the lowest and they have the sharpest lines, by far.
Mike:
Lukas has never been shy about touting his 3 yos. He\' the best used car salesman I have ever heard.
Still think Dublin has issues passing horses (probably due to immaturity or the hood) and has issues with cutting the turns without losing momentum or ground.
Thoro figures are all due to his wide trips as he lacks athleticism. The wide move at Saratoga in hot paced sprints is actually OK, especially at 7F. How does he fail to pass a tiring and weaving Super Saver at Oaklawn?
The way I handicap this race is normally the way I handicap the NCAA. What is the best region? I say it\'s the West.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
From DRF:
\"Dublin attempted to bolt on two separate occasions between the three and a half and three-furlong poles during a routine gallop, finally ducking out so sharply he actually bounced off the outside fence. Fortunately, he was ultimately able to regroup and complete a very eventful training session. Has not looked sharp since returning to the track following a five furlong workout here earlier in the week.\"
He does NOT like Churchill Downs, D. Wayne......
He probably doesn\'t like D. Wayne either.
Yeah, he has a nice line, but with three big efforts in a row, outside trips, I say he regresses, the payoff should have been the last one, he goes back IMO
So far, I\'m a lot closer than you are.
Dublin is 12-1 ML
LOL.
Yea, and he\'ll climb to 16 to 18-1.. Even with the defections of a 2-1 (Esky) and a 10-1 (Endorsement). You had him at 9-1 with both those horses in the race. Your credibility on this isn\'t very strong.
I had him 9-1 post time. It aint post time.... yet..
And now that you are on the Super Saver bandwagon, don\'t forget I picked him long before anyone else on his forum. LOL.