So I spent a little time today looking at the Oaks-Derby sheets and the 1st thing that stood out to me is the fillies with tops that separate them from the field pretty much have 2 things in common. 1st, their tops were all dramatic improvements and 2nd, many of them came in short fields. Now some, like Amen Hallelujah & Tidal Pool have paired or basically paired their jump up figure. Here\'s my opinion of the Oaks group: I\'m looking at the Fair Grounds Oaks as the definitive race to look at in determining the Oaks winner. This is mainly because the two fillies I\'ve zeroed in on both come out of that race. I just don\'t like the foundations of the fillies who have run fast going into the Oaks & I expect a few bounces. Plus those fast races in short fields makes me wonder what these fillies will do in a large field, something they haven\'t been battle tested to handle.
My current top 2 for the Oaks, subject to draw: FG Oaks winner Quiet Temper, whose figure was slower than 5 of the faster top fillies, but looks like she has the foundation for a forward move and FG Oaks 6th place finisher Ailalea, who was compromised by a wide throughout trip out of the tough 11 hole, and ran some good 2yo figures in NY last year. Now Champagne D\'Oro ran the best figure in the FG Oaks from the tough 10 post, and last year\'s figures were on synthetics while sire Medaglia D\'Oro has better dirt #s, so she\'s probably my 3rd choice, but I didn\'t like the big move up in her last. With the big speed numbers in their recent races of Blind Luck, Devil May Care, Amen Hallelujah,Tidal Pool and to a lesser extent No Such Word, I expect pretty good odds on my top 2 picks.
Now I figure I\'m going to need them, because, unless it rains, which will cause me to back way down, I\'m expecting to see Eskendereya in the winner\'s circle on May 1st. I\'m just waiting for that last workout next weekend & PP draw to finalize my thoughts that we\'re looking at the same situation we saw with Smarty Jones & Big Brown-a horse who is clearly his generation\'s fastest & a pretty predictable winner. After studying Pletcher\'s workout pattern with Eskendereya this year, the ideal work should be 5f between 1:00-1:01. If CD gets souped up, he could break a minute, but most likely Pletcher will want him in the 1-1:01 range.
If I was betting today,my Oaks Derby doubles would be
Quiet Temper,Ailalea/Eskendeeya. My top choice to finish behind Eskendereya is Awesome Act who has good enough #s and whose running style is good for a clunk up 2nd or 3rd trailing a runaway winner.
While I\'ve seen plenty of Derby opinions, I haven\'t seen any Oaks ones, care to share 1st Oaks thoughts?
Quote from: a pretty predictable winner.
If you\'ve been paying attention to the 3 year old preps the past 2 weeks (Ark, BG, Lex), you would see that there is very little that is predictable in this game. I will confidently toss out any 2-1 shot in the Derby and if I get beat by it 2 or 3 times a decade so be it. At 2-1 in a field of 20 baby horses where none have maximized their true full potential, there is very little to like about Eskendereya. At 8-1 or longer, he\'s a gorgeous animal that I would happily key. At 2-1, I\'ll let him beat me.
sekrah Wrote:
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> I will confidently toss out any 2-1
> shot in the Derby
I am glad to see someone admit their strategy is to toss ANY favorite in the Derby. I believe there has to be some discrimination between a bad or vulnerable favorite and a super strong favorite that is an almost certain winner with an uneventful, reasonable trip. If I get 3-1 on Big E, I will be thrilled to make a huge win bet.
sekrah Wrote:
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> there is very little to like about Eskendereya
Really?
A thought after looking at the oaks/derby sheets.Sydney\'s Candy(2nd/3rd choice in the derby) has never run as fast as the 3yr old filly No Such Word and a few other 3 yr old fillies.Very interesting, since SC would be odds on if permitted to run in the Oaks as the 6th fastest going in.
Also incredible is the number of horses shipping from Cali synth surfaces and running huge tops on dirt.Are all of these \"slow\" fig\'d Cali horses, getting a boost when they leave Cali?. Deja vous to the days of the old Cali highway dirt tracks, when shippers from Cali ran new tops after shipping 3,000 miles,no less.
JB, how can so many different outfits ship out of Cali and get horses to run holes in the wind.We know about synth/dirt move ups, just in these 40+ oaks/derby horses,there are way too many.Can you have that circuit too slow to begin with?
You will recall that Beyer made some adjustment to their Cali figs which seem to be more in line, some improvement on dirt but not as huge as TG.Will take a look at Rags also but would appreciate your thoughts as surely you have seen the figs I\'m referring to.
If you only think that poor testing at other venues is the reason for the move ups, don\'t waste your valuable time in replying.
Mike
I also took my first look at the Derby / Oaks sheet, and the most intriguing horse amongst the colts so far is...Dublin.
Yes, Dublin.
Not for what he\'s done, but for what he hasn\'t done...or more to the point, what he hasn\'t had done to him.
Did someone finally get through to DWL that you don\'t have to run and train an animal hard for weeks on end to get them ready to run in the TC?
This horse shows some decent early ability as a juvenile, winning the Hopeful, then reacted strongly to that effort, which won him a nice (and productive) break from racing.
When he returned, Dublin responded with three decent (if not eye-popping) performances, returning to his 2yo top.
If it were most any other trainer, I\'d say, \"Meh -- the horse is back to his 2 yo form, but no more development showing, so either toss, or use underneath only.\"
I get a different read on Dublin: I see a trainer -- who has been unsuccessfully squeezing his horse\'s lemons dry for so long that I can vaguely remember him winning all those Derbies -- actually trying something different here.
Could Dublin be sitting on a big one? I think so. Tell me I\'m nuts. Seriously.
Mike-- we\'re going to be doing a bunch of things with this in the seminar, it\'s obviously the single biggest issue to address with this year\'s Derby and Oaks-- what happens when they come from Cal synth to dirt, and also what happens the next time. We\'re running the studies now.
In the meantime: In the Ill Derby there were three of them. American Lion ran a new top, one paired, one ran an X. Dutrow\'s horse-- dirt/dirt-- also ran a big new top in that race. The same weekend, Dakota Phone (I think that\'s his name) went back several points in the Oaklawn Handicap going synth/dirt.
Think of it as if all they ran on in California was turf. When the horses left there to run on dirt some would prefer it, some would run worse, and some would be the same, no preference. The trick is to figure out which ones are which, and yes, I think a big factor in who jumps and who doesn\'t is ALSO the testing thing. I suspect that issue will come up a lot at Monmouth this summer as some notorious guys who have been shut down in California join the cast of bad actors at the Jersey shore, and I ain\'t talking MTV.
Also keep in mind that if the trainers can figure out who will prefer dirt, a high percentage of those shipping out will improve. Synth/dirt stats by trainer might be worth keeping an eye on.
Favorites. Over the last ten years (decade of the 2000\'s) favorites have won 4 Kentucky Derby\'s (40%) (Fu Peg, Smarty Jones, Street Sense and Big Brown). Since the generally accepted benchmark for winning favorites is 33% and this race contains the largest field we see I find this over achievement by the betting favorites to be even more remarkable.
Now, some bad favorites have lost (Harlan\'s Holiday and Sweetnorthensaint) and some good favorites (Empire Maker and Point Given (as admitted by Gary Stevens)) had bad trips and lost but with all the focus on catching a bomb on top we need to keep in mind that the recent history of this race is pretty formful.
One of the current problems with the Derby is that the number of unknowns has grown significantly over the years (eg., how will the TAP barn react on the big stage with tough testing; how will SC (who I believe to be most likely to beat Esken) take to a new surface for him, how hot will the pace be, etc.) and therefore additional risk comes into the equation for which a bettor needs to be rewarded.
More thoughts as we move closer to the date and the field continues to get firmed but but tossing the favorite is not an angle I will support.
Also, concerning the field, is anyone familiar enough with the rules in Kentucky around coupling of entries to explain under what circumstances we might have coupled entries in this year\'s race (eg., would Jackson Bend and Ice Box or Rule and Super Saver be coupled in the betting)?
Bob
Rick, you\'re absolutely not nuts, IMO. Sometimes they do actually set new tops in the derby. The raw stats say odds are against it but at 30+ to 1 the math appears to be in your favor. If you have issues with all the big new tops set this year by many others then obviously Dublin moves up the list. Nice work today. Lukas sticks with TJ?
Can anyone elaborate on the testing procedures that will take place prior to the Oaks/Derby? Any specific details that might help? Thanks
JB,
Thanks.Just a small aside.The Meadowlands Harness racing testing(same as the runners??)is said to be the toughest in North America.Don\'t know if that is relevant, but do know that the drug thing gravitated from the trots to the flats, many years ago.
On Monmouth, I do think that part of the dominance of the NY guys had to do with running against inferior Jersey competition. Remember, a top NY owner told me BEFORE the Monmouth meet(2-3 years ago) that he would be the leading owner because he shipped many there instead of the SPA.
There is also the issue of the Monmouth surface,highly preferable to speed horses and of course the question of cheats.
Incidentally, NYRA fooling with defensive moves to deal with the Monmouth purse threat to the SPA meet and several Upstate NY politicians are on board.
Mike
Flushed and Rick B.,
A couple points:
1. Dublin won\'t be 30+ to 1. Half that is my over/under.
2. He is another with a pattern that exceeds his actual talent and chances IMO. (see Rule and Super Saver). If Dublin was any kind of a horse he would have run by both Super Saver and Line of David, both of whom were looking for a place to lay down in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby.
3. The horse seems to get one bad trip after another. He somehow got 3w/3w while breaking from post 2 in the Arkansas Derby? What happens when he runs in a 20 horse derby?
Don\'t get me started.
Yet the 2 worst races of his career were at CD. Tough read.
On the other hand Super Saver set a stakes record at CD going 2 turns. He clearly likes the track. His running style despite the presence of lots of early speed, fits this track.
Reportedly:
Dublin worked 59.13 this am at CD, galloped out poorly.Put a fork in him.
Rule gets Ramon Dominquez\'s kind hands. Not enough, imo,he\'ll be looking for a soft spot to lie down around the 1/8th pole on May 1st,right next to his stablemate Super Saver.
LAL worked like an elephant,not grabbing the track Friday and was tired. In spite of Baffy saying it was just what he wanted,toss!
Esky worked slowish 1.02 at PM on a deep surface. Work mirrors pre Wood works, must show up again, betting he will.Barn tense, know they have the best horse, by far.Need a little luck to get to the gate ok and a decent trip.
SC worked big, behind a mate, rushed home and galloped out fast. Question whether he\'ll rate off and still fire.Most likely to run big of all the speeds imo for a few reasons.
Nobel\'s Promise did not work but looked very good galloping. Sneaky if in and takes back making one late run.Took antibiotics recently though,a serious knock.
Zito pair,esp Icebox looked good,very alert.Jackson Bend, small but game does not appear to have the physicality to handle the rough-house 20 horse field, not getting faster.
Tricky likes Homeboychris works, delusional from too much Florida sun.
Awesome Act getting lots of mulligans,not from me.Watched him \"kinda\" pull both races. If he pulls in the derby, he\'ll finish last!
Mike
Street Sense 9/2 and Smarty Jones 4-1 went off at odds that would make Esky a reasonable bet. Esky is not a reasonable bet at 2-1 IMO.
Eskeyendereya doesn\'t look any better than Friesan Fire did coming into this race IMO.
What was wrong with Homeboykris\'s workout? Also, Hear anything on Endorsement or Paddy O\'Prado?
Thanks
Homeboychris worked very slow on turf,around the dogs.Tricky trying to put stamina into this one. If HBC wins the derby, I\'ll quit the game.
Endorsement worked back fast/well and looks to have big talent.(another Win Star) His lack of experience may be very difficult to overcome in this 20 horse scramble.Had a perfect trip in last.
Paddy O\'Prado,a roan? galloped well(from memory) but I feel he ran his eyeballs out last time and the time before,may react.
Regardless of figs,I\'m against any horse that had a tough, gut wrencher in his start prior to the derby, extra spacing or not.
Mike
I think if you look closely at his 2 races this year, you will see vast improvement. In Tampa he was VERY late changing leads, and when he did change, he rebroke - a good sign - and still was in the place photo.
In Arkansas he chased the lone speed and SHOULD have finished up the track as a result. He also switched leads perfectly and on cue. Speed unchallanged invariably wins. Often times, horses that are front runners who chase another speed horse usually finish out of the money. But Super Saver has no quit in him. Dublin had every right to blow by him, but - good front runners like SS when they find themselves chasing a lone speed horse, often times turn the race into 2 seperate races. SS was no longer racing against LOD in Arkansas, but he was racing as the lone speed against the rest of that field. When they galloped out, all 3 remained in the same position. Dublin could not or would not go by SS and neither could get by the winner galloping out.
Now SS moves to the track where he ran his best figure (and where Dublin ran his 2 worst figures), he paired that fig twice in 2 starts this year which were CLEARLY preps - winning would have been gravy, nothing more, there was no intention to win - this horse, given a clean trip, dare I say is a MORTAL LOCK to finish in the exacta. And at 20-1 he will pay $20.00 or more to place if Esky and SC are not in the exacta. If one of them are, SS still rounds out a $140.00 exacta. Yep, think I\'ma gonna make a big score this year. Lord knows its been a long time comin.........
Mike,
I\'ve suggested for the last 2 years that as long as all artificial tracks are designated as Synthetic, there will be problems for handicappers.
Considering Cushion, Pro Ride, Polytrack and Tapeta as one in the same is just not accurate. I make that type designation similar to ALL turf races just saying turf: no fst/no hvy/no yld, no nothing. Clearly, those turf surfaces are all different and all cause certain horses to perform differently. Its the same as all dirt races just being defined as \"dirt.\" No fast/no sly fast/no heavy/no muddy, no nothing. We all know each of those dirt surfaces are different and affect horses differently.
Can you imagine if the DRF or Brisnet or TG only designated a race as \"dirt.?\" Or just designated all turf races as just \"turf\"?.
People wouldn\'t know what the hell they\'re betting.
That\'s why the Synth designation is a difficult read for most people.
For 3 years now I\'ve charted the differences in moving from artificial to dirt and there are some constants. But, everytime a guy tries to throw them out to the TG crowd, somebody wants to make light of it.
True but also true that all \"dirt\" surfaces are not the same. The Churchill dirt is different than the Belmont dirt which is different than the Gulfstream dirt. These differences relate to the ecosystems in which these surfaces exist and the \"dirt\" material used in the construction of these surfaces.
As horse players we need to continue to educate and seek education on the impact of these surface differences and similarities on performance.
Regardless of figs,I\'m against any horse that had a tough, gut wrencher in his start prior to the derby, extra spacing or not.
Including, I presume, Ice Box?
Analyze,
I did not consider Ice Box,a one run closer to have had a gut wrencher in his last. A tough, hard fought stretch duel,yes. I think that horses like, Rule, Super Saver, Line of David and others that were on the hustle from the gate and ran the ENTIRE race, layed their bodies down and are more likely candidates for regression.With their up close style and the expected race dynamics,there is also the question of how they will do going that far, under pressure.
Others look at how much a horse jumped forward to evaluate stress. I feel that although Esky got a huge neg-3, he only \"ran\" 5/16ths of a mile.Horses that paired, with slower figs, Rule, Super Saver and others are more likely to be gutted than Esky, imo.There is also the question of 5-6 rather one dimensional speed horses which should compromise their preferred running style. No easy leads on May 1st.
Mike
Disagree that Icebox ran a \"gutwrencher\". He came home down the stretch with his fastest kick of the race. He just got up, but he wasn\'t spent IMO.
I wouldn\'t necessary throw out a horse coming in off a gutwrencher, but here\'s the horses I\'d classify as meeting those qualifications: Super Saver, Line of David, Dublin, Conveyance, Endorsement, Rule.
I thought both Funny Cide and Smarty Jones laid it all on the line in their final preps (2003 Wood and 2004 Ark Derby) and they both nearly won the Triple Crown. Same with Barbaro in the 06 Florida Derby.. Tracked hard set pace and battled Sharp Humor for the entire stretch drive.
I don\'t think it should disqualify a horse.
Sadler team seems to agree with you on Line of David. Said this on Sunday (from Downey):
QuoteThis is the first day he acted like his old self," said trainer John Sadler's assistant Larry Benavidez as Line of David bounced off the track back to Barn 42 before dawn. "That was a tough race in Arkansas.\"
Not yet convinced he\'s a toss, but three weeks is a quick turnaround.
IMO, Rule\'s sheet is not all that dissimilar to Hard Spun entering the 2007 Derby. The difference to me seems to be the Race Shape. The speed in the 2007 Derby was limited and relatively cheap (Stormello, Tueflesberg if i recall correctly). Here, there is a lot of quality speed and I just don\'t know if any of the need the lead types are going to get to relax enough up front. I like the jockey change here, and think that if Rule gets a good PP and RD can get him forwardly placed, Rule can go a long way. Race shape dictates that in a 20 horse field that he should get a better trip than Fifth Third (who could fall victim to a Dunkirk type trip) or Lookin at Lucky.
If Rule lasts 9F, historically that means he should hang on for a piece. Hard Spun was probably best at a mile, too (although he never ran at that distance)---didn\'t mean he couldn\'t carry it farther with the right trip.
Hard Spun had to run hard for the first two calls to shake lose from the rats(Stormello,Cowtown Cat,Tueflesburg) pressing/chasing.
He went 22.96 46.26 then when those slugs quit was able to slow it down some-111.13 and 137.04
Rule has his work cut out for him against these-a better deeper group of early types that figure to run for more than just four furlongs.Dominguez would have to alter Rule\'s style drastically to get a chunk of this race IMO.Fla Derby he was pressing only Pulsion.Here it\'s gonna be so much tougher.
Think you really have to assume a fast pace and see who benefits from that.
Agree with most here and its what scares me off Super Saver whom I love. He has had trouble rating and in a 20-horse field with 5 or 6 speed ballers, this is not the place to learn. Horses who like to goto the front are going to be amped up even more than normal.
That\'s correct and thank you. I was confused by that Derby because it was clearly a closer race (first, third and fourth were 17,14 and 20 at the six furlong mark) but your comments offer some explanation as to why Hard Spun was able to hang on all the way for second.
This year, I believe that we will see a half in sub :46 and a six furlong time of less than 1:10 which will set up for closers like 2000, 2001 and 2005.
I don\'t think there is another one like Hard Spun (also finished second in the Classic that year didn\'t he) in this race who like his stablemate the following year (Eight Bells) could seemingly run all day at the same pace. Maybe that was all a function of Jones\'s training style which as I recall, was a little unique.
Bob
I hate to see these excellent graded stakes winners referred to as \"slugs\". I know I would be ecstatic to own a horse like Stormello, or Cowtown Cat, or Teufelsberg.
Monmouth Guy,
IMO, Rule should have pissed on that FL Derby field but he quit like cheap claimer.
IMO It can not be emphasized enough how much an advantage a race over the track is. And the race shape for the Derby, BTW, is not carved in stone.
There is NO WAY Rule is going to be sent. That means he will be asked to do something else he hasn\'t done (rate) in race full of \"he hasn\'t done this yet\" excuses. And you don\'t try to change a horses running style - especially in a big race - and expect to cash. It just doesnt happen with any degree of profitability.
Discreetly Mine is another who will NOT BE SENT and this tactic has already failed in his last race - another field he should have pissed on.
Sidney\'s Candy has already alluded to stalking this time around.
Jackson Bend is a grinding stalker.
Line of David is the only horse who has to send. Then he stumbles out of the gate and guess who\'s on the lead and wins like Spend a Buck? Me. That\'s who. :)
MO Wrote:
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> Monmouth Guy,
>
> IMO, Rule should have pissed on that FL Derby
> field but he quit like cheap claimer.
>
Yeaaaa a horse that runs his best effort ever (a 1 on the thoros no less) quits like a cheap claimer. There were probably 6-7 horses in that race that were forward moving and Rule had a huge shot to lose that race against a horse who needed to set a new top to win just based on that angle alone...the angle being that a horse couldve exploded forward.. He lost to 2 of those horses... the same thing happened this weekend at the Blue Grass (on a different surface) which no one seems to consider on here and solely blames the poly for the result... but thats just another topic.
Doesnt mean it will happen again though.. if any horse beats Rule derby day we would have to assume imo that they will need better than a 1 effort to do so. Its not because hes going to quit like a cheap claimer.
I respectfully disagree. I rarely even handicap anymore let alone bet, but Rule was a mortal lock that day and he spit the bit. I recall your board discussion, but chose not to partake. So I know how strongly you felt about Rule then and why you feel this way about him now. I just think you got really lucky on your call about him.
I should be tarred and featherd for betting that POS at short odds though........And he actually backed up 1/2 a point BTW. He\'s faster figure wise, but his pattern is not as encouraging as Super Saver\'s, nor are his projected running style in the Derby. Remember, Dominguez is a rider who gets hired to ride good horses because he doesn\'t make many mistakes. Big difference between that and a rider who can move a horse up. He ain\'t gonna move Rule up.
Tough to say what the pace will be like in this year\'s Derby, but I don\'t think it will be slow. Line of David has won 3 in row going wire to wire, so I would think they\'re going to let him roll. Baffert will surely let Conveyance roll. That\'s all the horse knows to do and it helps ensure a fast pace for Lucky.
I know for a fact that the Pletcher barn is trying to teach Rule to rate and build stamina into him, but I don\'t think he\'ll be far behind the speed, and I didn\'t like his last work at all the other day. Super Saver can rate, but I don\'t think he\'ll be far off the speed or change to a mid-pack presser either. And like I\'ve said, it is my belief that if Super Saver was going anywhere he should have been able to get by Line of David in the ARK derby. I don\'t think the extra 1/8th is going to help him in that regard, but I will be watching his works.
Then somewhere either right behind or mixed in with all of that you\'ve got American Lion, Discreetly Mine, Jackson Bend (if he gets in) and Sid. They tried to add blinkers and rate American Lion, which seems like a strange combination to me, and he ran a very poor race in the San Felipe. Trainer has since come right out and said that was a mistake, took the blinkers off, they let him run his own way in the ILL Derby, got a win and my guess would be they plan to let him run the way he wants in KY as well. Tough to say how he will handle it, but either way I think Sid would get the best of him. I think Discreetly Mine has a chance to relax and get first run on the tiring speed, but he\'s going to need to move forward a few points to get there. Same with Jackson Bend, and I disagree with the theory of him being a rabbit for Ice.
I think Sidney will rate. I\'ve watched all his races I don\'t know how many times. I know he can go 45 and change to the 1/2, but he hasn\'t run off in his last few races. He also rated off the speed pretty well when he broke his maiden, has gained a lot of experience since then as well. If he handles the dirt and moves forward he could be very tough as he likely will be in the bunch that gets first run at the tiring speed as well, and he has the quaility to keep going and kick away.
And somewhere around all of that, and probably at the same time, ESK will likely be moving up as well. We know he can rate and fire.
I dunno. With a bunch that will probably be tiring and/or trying to make a move on the turn, looks to me like there are going to be a few that lose a lot of ground. Therefore although it\'s always important, I think Post Position is going to be key in seeing how this is going to sort out for some of these horses. In analyzing the race shape, I would start with Line of David and Conveyance and work your way in and out from there. See who is likely to fall in behind them and get 1-3W trip around both the turns. Even without seeing the draw I don\'t think it is going to be ESK. My guess is Johnny V will ride him with some confidence and try to keep him clear of trouble. That usually means wide trip.
MO Wrote:
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> I respectfully disagree. I rarely even handicap
> anymore let alone bet, but Rule was a mortal lock
> that day and he spit the bit. I recall your board
> discussion, but chose not to partake. So I know
> how strongly you felt about Rule then and why you
> feel this way about him now. I just think you got
> really lucky on your call about him.
>
> I should be tarred and featherd for betting that
> POS at short odds though........And he actually
> backed up 1/2 a point BTW. He\'s faster figure
> wise, but his pattern is not as encouraging as
> Super Saver\'s, nor are his projected running style
> in the Derby. Remember, Dominguez is a rider who
> gets hired to ride good horses because he doesn\'t
> make many mistakes. Big difference between that
> and a rider who can move a horse up. He ain\'t
> gonna move Rule up.
I had him running an off race (2-3 range) and not a top based on what he had shown to us previously with the rest situation at his top running level. He wound up running even better than i thought (great sign) and backed just a little less than projected. With plenty of rest going into the Derby I am very big on him running a top or limited newer top in the derby race(neg 1 - 0 or so). The problem as I have said is with a few others running faster already its goin to be hard to put him in the winners circle BUT his value will be overshadowed (especially frm what i see on the board) and he has a great shot imo to hit the board underneath somewhere. With a great trip saving ground he may not have to run faster than a 0 or so to even make the top 3.. but thats to be said.
Il respectfully agree to disagree.... i think luck mightve been if one horse beat Rule but there were two... my analysis (luck or no luck) showed that so many horses in that race had a good potential to move/explode forward AS WELL as Rule\'s potential to back up a bit. I couldnt take the low odds Rule. To me if 6 horses were moving forward and one really faster one was moving back it was a 1 in 7 shot to win the race and the odds were not there to wager on him.. Derby day the odds WILL BE there to wager BUT il structure my wager accordingly thinking hes more likely than not to get a small piece rather than a big one. THIS time he WILL have the rest and pattern going in that may allow him to pop even a greater effort at tremendous odds.
I would agree that I would have to include Rule in a box at long odds. Those figures are scary fast, and he\'s a horse I\'d hate to get beat by, but his dosage (yep, that old tool), lack of race over the track as well as projected running style are big negatives for me.
If it aint obvious, BTW, I still give a lotta weight to the dual qualifier system. SS fits, Rule doesn\'t. For that reason I\'m not inclined to toss Dublin, and ya might think this is crazy, but Dublin is a horse who acts like he would benefit from a shock and DWL ain\'t afraid to pull that trigger in the Derby. He\'s talking all this shit about how much Dublin loves this track, but his races there were absolute stinkers. He knows something we don\'t and it might be this suggested change in tactics. This horse will also be a decent price with a no name rider. Must use.
DUBLIN\'s win in the Hopeful was sans blinkers.
He breezed a bullet at CD today. Perhaps BLINKERS OFF the \"shock\" from D. Wayne......one run from far back.....by Afleet Alex out of a Storm Bird mare who was not too shabby on the racetrack herself....hopefully over the traumatization (is that a real word?) of being ridden by Cory Nakatani.
Anyway....time to get back to Kings-Canucks.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Rule may or may not get a mile and a quarter. That said, the pace figures for the Fla Derby dwarfed the pace figures of all the other major preps and Rule was still around at the end. Leave him out at your own peril.
I agree that the Fla Derby pace scenario looms large over the 3 year old preps, but I\'d throw an exception in there for the Bluegrass. Paddy O\'Prado impressed me nearly wiring that field with strong fractions. Same with his turf effort, and he\'ll have Desormeaux on.
On Rule, judging the pace figs from his Sam F Davis race at Tampa and some of his earlier Delta races and I think Rule can rate too. I won\'t be leaving him off my tickets.
Just look at the line its really really healthy.. top at this level (2).. healthy bounce.. rest.. new top.. healthier bounce.. now rest again. Everything on his pattern indicates A TOP EFFORT next out with just about the same amount of rest from the top 2 effort to the top 1 effort. Very nice play here with very nice odds imo! how many others in here can u say should def run a top effort according to pattern and rest combined and have around 25 to 1 odds or more? Il take this one over most of these other horses easily
I see Rule at 25-1 at a few books but do you really think he\'ll stay up there in the pari-mutual pools? I got a gut feeling those 4 wins out of his lat 5 will have some pull with the layman and he\'ll inch down below 20-1.
There\'s alot to like about Rule. Him and Super Saver are the two with the strongest 2-year old foundations IMO and the most likely to explode on May 1st and both will be in the 15 to 20-1 range. Yum. I\'ll throw in Endorsement to make another move forward and unless something unforeseen happens, those 3 will be my Top Tier Keys in the Derby.
So what then do you make of Rule\'s last workout on Sunday? He breezed in company with Mission Impossible and tired in the last 1/8th. Mission Impossible drew off and out worked Rule by about 3 lengths.
So, if you like Rule do you love Mission Impossible? Or do you just ignore those works and figure how a horse works doesn\'t mean much.
Just curious what your take on this is.
OK Jellish,
A.) WIDE TRIP for ESKY
B.) POOR WORK for RULE last out
C.) POOR PACE and distance setup for Super Saver
D.) Discreetly Mine too slow.
ADDS Up to another 0-Fer for Pletcher
I know you weren\'t asking me, but I am very discouraged by Rule\'s last work and need to see more this weekend at Churchill Downs. I have found Mike Welsch\'s clockers report pretty helpful in weeding out horses that didn\'t take to the CD surface and are unlikely to run well (as opposed to recommending them). Looking at my notes, Recapture the Glory is the only horse I have running a new top (or pair) in the KD in the last 4 years after a negative final workout report from Welsch. Remember it well, b/c he almost blew up my super until ToE got past him in the final strides.
Many moons back he\'d be a auto toss with a DI of 4.60, hehehe
mjellish Wrote:
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> So what then do you make of Rule\'s last workout on
> Sunday? He breezed in company with Mission
> Impossible and tired in the last 1/8th. Mission
> Impossible drew off and out worked Rule by about 3
> lengths.
>
> So, if you like Rule do you love Mission
> Impossible? Or do you just ignore those works and
> figure how a horse works doesn\'t mean much.
>
> Just curious what your take on this is.
Mission Impazible 04/17/2010 PMM 5F 1:02.25 Dirt Fast B
Rule 04/17/2010 PMM 5F 1:02.65 Dirt Fast B
Yeaaaaaa a 0.4 second difference in a workout is REALLY going to make me throw my opinion out the window on Rules pattern/rest coming into the derby. Not saying MI couldnt beat him or anyone else for that matter but im waiting for post positions to come out next week out before posting my opinion on the race and other horses.
You do know they worked in company, correct? To me that means something. Sure, it\'s only .4 seconds. But that equates to about 2 1/2 lengths that Rule lost to MI in the final 1/8th of their workout.
That either means Rule is not a very good work horse, or he had an off day on that surface, or MI is doing better than him right now.
I know Pletcher has always said Rule isn\'t much for the mornings unless you ask him to run, and it is an important distinction that he said this before the work. But my understanding is that Rule WAS asked to run a bit with a couple of shakes of the reins in this work when MI began to draw away, so to me that is not a good sign.
Don\'t want to start a debate, but I was curious as to your take on this and how this may or may not relate to your overall view of this horse and his pattern. From the sounds of it you don\'t put much stock in works. You stick with the pattern.
Fair enough.
Will be very curious to see how this guy works over the Churchill strip.
Rule has been just fine this whole way and everything is in line so Im not worried about a workout or 2 at all. If something was really wrong id trust they would scratch him or anyone else for that matter. Yes im sticking to my read on the pattern and rest that I see and wont add other factors to sway my opinion on the upcoming race. As we know some horses blaze and some are slower in workouts but on racing day it comes down to that number power, pattern and rest. Remember Backtalk in the Illinois Derby? He blazed and did nothing. They ALL workout and its a consistent factor. The only thing that seperates any horse to me is efforts on previous racing days and form with timing into a race.
on the topic at hand:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56544/nobles-promise-sizzles-at-churchill
This lung infection thing is like afleet alex a couple years ago. Guess we will see soon enough.
NYC:
Of course we all know by now what you feel about workouts (they are unimportant,
just like pedigree).
By focusing on the time of the works, you missed some important knowledge that
Mjellish was trying to pass along to you. You can read his post again, but I will
give you the two key words you need to pay attention to: \"tired\" and \"breeze\".
As to your comment about the so far pretty good Eskendereya and the slower
members of this 3YO crop having \"huge potential\" to be \"the best ever\" let me add
the words \"arguably since 1973\".
Secretariat had the greatest 3YO campaign ever: Triple Crown, 2 track records
which still stand at Churchill and Belmont, world records on dirt and turf,
defeated older accomplished runners on turf. Kind of hard to believe, seeing as
how racehorses as we all know are getting faster. Secretariat was given Eclipse
awards as top 3YO male, top turf male and for the second straight year, Horse of
the Year.
Sham, second to Secretariat in the Derby, is still I believe the answer to the
tricky trivia question \"Who ran the second fastest Derby of all time?\" (Do not
know if Monarchos was faster).
Well back of Secretariat in that 73 Derby was Forego. If you ask people who have
been watching races for 40 years as I have, most, including me, would put
Secretariat and Forego in the top 10 dirt horses in the last 40 years, and I would
have the former on top and the latter in the top 5.
Before annointing any of these colts, one of them has to stand up on May 1 and
say (to use a reference from my tribe) \"Today I am a man\".
Hype is a dirty four letter word.
richiebee Wrote:
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> NYC:
>
> Of course we all know by now what you feel about
> workouts (they are unimportant,
> just like pedigree).
>
> By focusing on the time of the works, you missed
> some important knowledge that
> Mjellish was trying to pass along to you. You can
> read his post again, but I will
> give you the two key words you need to pay
> attention to: \"tired\" and \"breeze\".
I understand but words to describe fast workouts are \"blazed\" and \"zip\".. there are many times where horses do this in a workout and do nothing next out in a race such as Backtalk last out. After mj said breeze and tired he also stated that the horse doesnt like working out in the morning.. i dunno.. but i do kno that whatever pletcher did at the start with this horse to now has allowed him to be in the kentucky derby as the 3rd highest graded money earner. The horse has been fine all this way and it makes no sense to me to worry over something like that when every other indication is a go for may 1st.
>
> As to your comment about the so far pretty good
> Eskendereya and the slower
> members of this 3YO crop having \"huge potential\"
> to be \"the best ever\" let me add
> the words \"arguably since 1973\".
>
> Secretariat had the greatest 3YO campaign ever:
> Triple Crown, 2 track records
> which still stand at Churchill and Belmont, world
> records on dirt and turf,
> defeated older accomplished runners on turf. Kind
> of hard to believe, seeing as
> how racehorses as we all know are getting faster.
> Secretariat was given Eclipse
> awards as top 3YO male, top turf male and for the
> second straight year, Horse of
> the Year.
>
> Sham, second to Secretariat in the Derby, is still
> I believe the answer to the
> tricky trivia question \"Who ran the second fastest
> Derby of all time?\" (Do not
> know if Monarchos was faster).
>
> Well back of Secretariat in that 73 Derby was
> Forego. If you ask people who have
> been watching races for 40 years as I have, most,
> including me, would put
> Secretariat and Forego in the top 10 dirt horses
> in the last 40 years, and I would
> have the former on top and the latter in the top
> 5.
>
> Before annointing any of these colts, one of them
> has to stand up on May 1 and
> say (to use a reference from my tribe) \"Today I am
> a man\".
>
> Hype is a dirty four letter word.
My potential talk only starts and is limited to the last 10 years or less since horses have been running negative numbers. Its senseless to base a crop of horses at one of the best in the 10 years when you have horses like Bell Road and Sinister Min. etc.. bouncing off the walls and not being able to compete the rest of their campaign due to needed rest, being knocked out from a top effort etc. My comment also includes this crop as a whole such as horses who arent in the Derby.. u kno like D\' Funnybone, 85ina50, a Little Warm, Blind Luck, etc. Its also unfair to compare these horses to hose 30 years ago cause it wasnt uncommon for horses to have 4-7 preps or whatever prior to the derby. You just cant do that in the present without serious repercussions.
These days we are looking at trainers who are very tentative and have done only 2 preps or so with spacing. They spot horses very precisely.. Trainers now arent pressured for the derby like it used to be...if it means skipping out on the derby and looking down the road (D\' funnybone type horses) the trainers will with no problem and do not force a horse to do something thats not likely to happen. All money is made in breeding and if u really look at the huge sire fees its horses who never even won the derby... Ghostzapper, Curlin (which is significant in this paragraph cause he got better and better with spacing and time just as the field of horse this year), etc. The smart trainers have always looked ahead.. like Zito... u think he cares about not hitting the board Derby day? When all the top horses run out of gas and cant run for some time guess who steps up weeks later in the Belmont stakes? That idea to me seems to be grasping many trainers now and future planning is better than present pressure.
The idea with the potential of this group is that they are very versatile and have many chances to all run in so many differnt categories/surfaces and actually make an impact. Weve seen horses explode from slower numbers already and be able to still run top efforts next out on their respective surfaces (sidneys candy, etc)... or horses who run great on poly then still explode on dirt (LAL, NP, etc) or turf horses who are fast and still run consistent on other surfaces (Interactif, etc)... this crop as a whole is being treated the best overall that ive seen imo ever and from that i think the potential as a whole looks really great especially with potential and already fast figures run.
Think about this.. if all the horses who have already run negative numbers this year ran them in the derby would u be surprised? probably not BUT if that happened years ago with sinister minister, keyed entry, etc.. u wouldve probably been really surprised... the timing and management was just not there like it is this year.
Rule\'s fastest breeeze at PMM at 5f was 1:02.2 less than a month before he bounced home in the Sam F Davis.
Richiebee,
Have you noticed that you are taking a \"whippersnapper\" tack against someone (NYC) whose sheet theories are in fact more classical than those of the people challenging him?
Much of what NYC writes sounds as if it came right out of the 1970 Ragozin playbook. That\'s what I find interesting in his posts. He writes in a young, text-message style while he shows his loyalty to theories that are 40+ years old.
yes and that 3 point bounce was followed up by rest leading to a top..his bounce after that was only a half point.. hes getting better as time goes on especially with rest given... has nothing to do with works. Do you think hes the same horse as he was last year in the Sam Davis race? Cleary not.
Rich:
As I\'ve said many times about many people, he loves Racing, so I have to love him.
I see what you mean about the old school mentality. \"Number power, patterns and
rest.\"
Which one of us is going to be the one to suggest to NYC that TG and both the
Lens, in their private and personal handicapping endeavors, probably at one
time or another utilized information from a clocker, or kept charts or trip notes,
or analyzed the internal fractions of a race?
NYC,
\"all the horses who have run negative numbers in this year\'s preps run them again in the Derby\"
All what horses? Eskendereya and American Lion (who made it in by a fraction of a point?)
There aren\'t that many fast horses coming in this year, which is part of the handicapping puzzle in trying to beat Eskendereya.
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> There aren\'t that many fast horses coming in this year
I would rephrase that as \"There aren\'t that many horses that have already run fast on real dirt coming in this year\".
Unless you ignore the possibility of the poly-->dirt big jump up discussed to death here, simple logic says you have to concede that there could be some very fast horses coming in this year that simply have not displayed it yet, i.e. Sid, LAL, and at this point I\'m assuming too small a statistical sample from derby history to conclude this type of \"new top\" is unlikely.
I didn\'t mean \"bounced home\" in the handicapping sense. :). I thought his Sam F Davis effort was strong from all angles.
Rule has consistantly worked much slower than his stablemate Super Saver. Two times they have run the same distance on the same day.
Apr 4th, Rule breezed 4 in 52.2, SS breezed 4 in 50.4.
Mar 7th, Rule handily 5 in 101.1, SS breezed 5 in 100.3.
Eskendereya has a handful of 5f breezes slower than 102, including a pair of 102.2\'s in the weeks leading up to the Fountain of Youth and Wood. I will buy seeing how the horse moves along a new surface as a valid handicapping method. But tossing out a horse because he didn\'t zip through a breeze on his home training track? Nuts.
I\'ll also add, the fastest workout I see on Rule\'s workout list? November 28th, 2009 at Churchill, 47.4 Breeze (4/29).
This horse broke the Delta Downs track record at 1 mile as a 2 year old and has absolutely no unhealthy regressions in his pattern. Throw in that he qualified for the Derby back in early December giving Pletcher the opportunity to train this horse specifically for the derby (Other Pletcher early qualifiers: Limehouse 4th, Bluegrass Cat 2nd) and you have a major contender. (He has a clunker in there with this angle with Scat Daddy though, but he never liked the CD surface and hurt his tendon in the race).
Toss him off your tickets at your own peril.
Well, things have changed quite a bit since those sheets came out. No Esky, sloppy track, etc. I followed the workouts through the various media sources and my final decisions were based a lot on those works. I lost my confidence in Quiet Temper after her last work & the post about her weight loss. When I was done I realized I like a lot of bombs in both the Oaks & Derby & I\'m going to do something I rarely do-spread out quite a bit in doubles. My Oaks-Derby doubles will have a ton of combos: The biggest ones will be 1,12/1,10,14 16. I\'ll save with 5 & 11 with a mini saver on 13 in the Oaks and I\'ll save with 6 &,7 in the Derby. Irony is my best bet turned out to be the race right before the Oaks-I love Asphalt at 12-1 ML & I\'ll be playing decent sized doubles with 1,5,11,12& 13 and saver doubles with 6,7,8 in the Oaks. I expect the Oaks-Derby DD to pay pretty good even if one favorite wins, but the race I love is Friday\'s 10th.