Bushwhacked (12-1) looks solid from post 4. good tactical speed, strong jock. respect the trainer over the course. Posse a bit short on top, but 1 1/16 should be within reach. an inside \'4\' is good with these.
key Bushwhacked.
Oh boy, Jerry and Len like the same horse (Bushwhacked, basically). Probably go off at 4-1.
But I\'m looking forward to the bloodletting over the Esky fig. I also enjoyed the tap dancing between JB and Jellish over the Wood fig. Two well-informed opinions not interested in arguing.
The beauty is that with 20/20 hindsight they (Rags/Jellish vs. JB) both could be right if Esky wins the Derby.
TG: bounces and wins.
Rag/Jellish. pair/slight forward move.
OR.
TG: Pair
RJ: Breakthrough.
Two good lines.
And Matt Carutthers and Mike Joyce of TVG........7/2.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Just my way of looking at it (This is a TG board):
Call Shot (10-1 ML) has run as fast as 2 shorter priced contenders
(Bushwhacked and Connemara) on synth.(Interestingly, none of these has the fastest
TG in the race on synth).
Call Shot has run faster than any of these on dirt save for \"Uptown\". In the lone
turf start of his career, he was within a length of two 3YO turf stake winners,
Nordic Truce (undefeated?) and Bim Bam.
Call Shot is arguably fast and has some quality (the turf race and his maiden
race, in which he beat Derby prospect American Lion).
He has had 48 days of rest since his last race. The Analysis points out there is
some \"ouchiness\" on this sheet, but during CS\'s \"rest\" he worked a best of 29
5 furlongs in 582 at Kee on April 5.
On the plus side, I haven\'t seen any photos of CS with shaved knees; on the
negative side, CS did not have his last race at high altitude and thus his lungs
are not properly expanded. (If you do not see the sarcasm in the above paragraph,
you haven\'t been following the Derby threads or your favorite color is probably
corduroy).
At double digit odds, I will be hoping that \"Junior\" can mind the store today.
For some added spice, Chief Counsel (15-1) hung up a good TG # at Ocala on synth,
has won at Kee, and worked a very unMott-like 464 breezing last
Saturday at Kee. Ground loss assured from post 12 for a colt by a stallion whose
get has been much better at distances under a mile according to TG sire stats.
Nordic Truce 3/3/0/0
Bim Bam 9/4/1/4
FWI
Think Richiebee got this one on the head. Call Shot. In addition to the horses favored in the ROTW analysis (all of whom are worth protecting with), I would also protect with the Alan Garcia horse on the rail.
I think all the horses outside the 5 horse can comfortably be thrown out of the exacta for sure. Long priced ones outside the five post are more likely to clunk up into the super than the bet ones out there are.
Pletcher horses figure to be overbet and also have to carry 4 extra pounds (in addition to the trip challenge and the lack of number/pattern power).
Only risk to me is influence of magic but hard to argue that is a problem when betting on Catalano.
Ouchiness in lightly raced two year olds is something that can be overcome -- not nearly as scary as it is in older horses -- especially for a horse that did race four times as a two year old (a three year old with 6 races in the bag cant be that ouchy). Also, TGJB is always hammering home that ouchy horses run well fresh and then regress, and this horse does seem to have been sufficently rested into this.
Excellent race of the week. Full field. Track with very low take. Good bet againsts. Who cares what the outcome is....races like this is what makes this game fun.
One question, which of the multitude of synthetic surfaces is the one at Ocala? Is there anyway we can get different symbols for the different synthetics? The synthetic symbol has four parts. Maybe there can be something like the symbol with the four parts hollowed out is cushion (very close to dirt)...the symbol with all four parts colored in is pro-ride (very close to turf)...maybe three parts filled in is poly, two parts filled in is tapeta? To me, this would be a viewing aid.....but i understand if it would be technologically challenging to do. My problem is that i have found that not all synthetic surfaces are alike and you cannot just look at the symbol and assume they are all the same thing.
According to Keeneland website, Call Shot will race with blinkers on (not
reported by DRF).
Agree with everything that\'s been said on Call Shot. Straight win bet.. Nothing else.. Don\'t trust anything else underneath
Of course I need to compare talents first, but after that, this race (for me) is mostly about two things, track bias and synthetic history or predisposition. If today\'s track were the track of earlier in the meet (slow, favored closers), I would look for distance experience and closers. If it\'s faster, like it was yesterday, you can use Bush, Call, etc. If this track were the former variety, I would practically promise you that Borel would bring Prince Will I AM into the tri (I assume the Dynamformer on bottom gets the synthetic) and that Connemara would get a piece too.
I think, assuming a faster surface, that Call and Bush are good, but missing in many remarks is Kettle River, despite post.
This is setting up to be a fast pace though...
Leamas.
For better or worse, Len is not on Bushwhacked, basically or otherwise. He made it clear he\'s keying a bomb, I\'m boxing three.
My key is call shot. 2nd fastest in the race drawn well enough. good timing and loves the poly. I\'ll try him in the first and second spot with Bushwack, uptowncharlie and Len\'s longshot.
JB congrats on the court victory!
Okay, maybe Len was \"on\" his 21-1 shot, but when he puts \"defensible key\" and \"strong use\" in the same sentence, it\'s a signal to his less speculative followers.
But that\'s semantics. All I know is that everybody lost, myself included.