Regardless of where everyone comes out on the great Eskendereya debate, I think some of the more interesting horses in the race are also in Pletcher\'s barn in Super Saver and Rule.
Assuming SS paired or move forward slightly yesterday (I have no idea but I doubt he jumped up alot), he has a good looking pattern and room to go forward off the big two year old top.
Especially if SS retains Calvin, he may become my key horse as he will go off at a big price given that the many pace handicappers will consider him to be a victim of the pace.
I had a bundle on his nose yesterday (with stupidly nothing underneath) but maybe I lost a battle but stayed alive for the war as if he wins yesterday, he goes off much lower in the Derby and instead, I think he flies under the radar screen heading into this thing.
And before anyone reminds me about Pletcher\'s record in the Derby, this horse reminds me precisely of another Pletcher mount, Bluegrass Cat, who himself blew up many an exotic ticket on Barbaro Day.
We have already had the Rule debate on this board awhile back after the Florida Derby but he has an even better pattern and spacing.
I understand all of the pace handicappers throwing these horses out but I don\'t think either of these horses will be right on the lead and I am not a pace handicapper anyway as I find the pace is completely different from expectations as often as not. I don\'t really think all of the jocks on these front running types on Derby Day are going to run one another into the ground. A few of them might but not as many as I think consensus expects.
at any rate, assuming they train well up to the race and draw ok and especially if Calvin stays on SS, these are my keys at this stage.
SS definitely has Borel now. That\'s what I was hoping when I took him in pools 2 and 3. I just wish they had taken a better route. Got caught short earnings though and the options were limited. Stuck now with 3 weeks. And we still have the distance to worry about, though 16 or 17 of these probably won\'t get the distance.
SS will take some money with Calvin up. Rule will be longer.
I use alot of pace-handicapping and SS goes up in my book because he\'s actually fought tough paces. I will definently be using him in the Derby. If Calvin can relax this horse and get a good trip, I think he\'ll be near the front at the end. Might be a big If, but I still like him to get 1 1/4 more than I like Esky to.
Sek,
How do you get that Super Saver is more likely to get 1 1/4 than ESK? Just want to know your logic.
By my eye, SS roughly went the ARK Derby in 23.05, 46.80, 111.28 136.60 & 149.42. That translates to a final 3/8ths in 38.14, which isn\'t exactly flying late.
The race should have set up perfectly for stalker. But as far as I can tell LOD blitzed the field early and no one came to get him like they should have. He was very leg weary and drifting in at he end of the race. SS was right there but appeared to be gassed and also looked leg weary, drifting out and then back in again. I don\'t know what to make of Dublin. Given the way the race set up he should have went right by them both, but he hung instead after going widest of the three all the way around. He probably earned the best figure in the race, but he looks like one of those horses that just doesn\'t want to win. But with decent numbers you almost have to use him underneath in the exotics.
So how do you take out of this race that SS is more likely to get the 1 1/4? Did I miss something?
My conclusion from that race is that LOD is far better than anyone imagined (obviously, since he won). His dirt speed was masked by the synthetics. The turf let him to start showing it off a little. It was an ultra hot pace. I thought SS and LOD would get passed in the stretch but both showed lots of guts to hold on (and perhaps the closers were missing a cylinder yesterday).
So SS\'s splits were: 23.05, 23.75, 24.48, 25.32, and he came home in 12.82 ? Super Saver can get the 1 1/4 if Calvin can get him to relax off the pace.. run a 24, 24, 24, 24 through the first mile and I think this horse has as much
What have we seen from Esky? 24.5, 24.8, 24.3, 24.2, and then kicking clear in 12.2. From what I have seen, IF they can get Super Saver to rate at splits like that, I believe SS will be stronger at 1 1/4.
At a potential 15 or 20-1 derby price, I\'ll take that chance he\'ll be in the mix at the end because he\'s a very fast and gutsy racehorse who I think can overcome a troubled trip. Endorsement is still my key though. I think Endorsement will have the biggest lungs on the card at Churchill Downs, May 1st.
Well,
I guess I will likely put Super Saver into the Winner\'s Circle with this comment, but I think this horse has close to a zero shot of winning the derby. I have read more \"good reviews\" of his Arkansas Derby than I can believe in the last 24 hours. Line of David is an average horse who went out to an extremely fast pace while Super Saver and Dublin sat GREAT trips. (different story on Noble\'s Promise who stumbled early and was too far back). With Line of David absolutely staggering down the lane and looking for a place to lay down, neither Super Saver or Dublin could pick him up. An absolutely awful performance by Dublin IMO, as he had shown he could rate and had no excuse not to get up. At least we can say that Super Saver may not want to rate.
So, after sitting the catbird\'s seat behind Line of David, going 1 1/8, without being able to get by, we are going to add another 4 or 5 speed horses to the mix, most better than Line of David (Sydney\'s Candy and Rule for starters) AND go an extra 1/8 of a mile and Super Saver is going to improve?
Not with a nickel of my money on him in any of the slots.
Yeah, the pattern may be OK, but there are other things to factor in racing and none of those other things works in Super Saver\'s favor IMO.
Sekrah, the fact that you think the 1 1/4 will be better for SUper SAver than for Eskendereya has to be one of the wilder comments I have seen on this board, this side of Chuckles the Clown............
Line of David is an average horse? Why is that? Because he couldn\'t run on the mighty synthetics, that makes him an average horse?
That\'s one of the most wildest comments I\'ve seen on here.
Why can Eskendereya get 1 1/4? Because he magically makes all the other horses around him run slower and let him get away slower fractions? Please.. Eskendereya has run 6 route races and has had to run an honest pace in exactly ZERO OF THEM!!! They\'ve all been absurdly slow!!
Super Saver has had 5 route races and he\'s had to run BALLS TO THE WALL in ALL FIVE OF THEM. Going all the way back to his maiden win plus four graded stakes races. They all were faster than par at 4f and 6f. Esky\'s races? All slower than par.. MUCH, MUCH slower than par.
Super Saver clearly doesn\'t have Esky\'s intimidation ability to slow down the rest of the field, right?
Sekrah,
I am taking a leap that because you are posting on this board, you both understand and put value in speed figures.
Eskendereya has run faster than Super Saver on anybody\'s figures.
Yes, Super Saver has raced in some races with faster pace figures. But guess what, Eskendereya is not a \"speed\" horse, doesn\'t need the lead, and can sit and pounce. Super Saver has not shown an ability to pass horses, at all. If he was EVER going to pass a horse it would have been Line of David as LOD staggered down the lane yesterday. But he couldn\'t do that. Line of David is an average horse not because he ran on synthetics, but because he had two wins under his belt before yesterday. A maiden turf and a short field allowance turf race. At best he is unproven.
Unless Eskendereya bounces badly, or gets a bad trip, he is easily the most likely winner of the Derby. If Esky doesn\'t win, it won\'t be Super Saver that beats him.
Ok Sekrah,
Listen. You want to put your money on Super Saver then go ahead. You have every right to bet your opinion. But don\'t sit here and try to talk nonsense to people who know better. Super Saver didn\'t dig in to hang on gamely. He STAGGERED home yesterday, just like the winner. Super Saver came home his final 3/8ths in 38.14 on a quick track after getting a dream trip sitting all by himself right behind a sole leader that was cutting swift fractions. In comparison, Esk came home his final 3/8th INTO A HEADWIND on a much slower track after going 3w 3w.
If Super Saver was going to improve with added distance he should have shown it yesterday, his first trip at 1 1/8th after sitting a perfect trip. Ask any trainer out there if they would take the trip Super Saver had in a $1,000,000 race and they will say yes. Bu Super Saver didn\'t go by anyone. He staggered home, passed exactly zero horseflesh, bore out a bit on the turn and then drifted in through the stretch. That means leg weary. That\'s two all out races in a row coming off a layoff, neither one of which led to a victory. And without seeing his sheet, at the added distance with even more early speed in the race I say that means Bounce, with a capital B.
Now I would reserve my right to change my opinion about the Bounce factor if comes back to show me something in his training with a strong, double gallop out ala Dennis of Cork or something. But don\'t try to tell me Super Saver is going to be better at 1 1/4 than ESK, or that Line of David is suddenly right up there as well.
Sheer nonsense.
Esky rates better.. I\'m not denying that.. This is a speed handicapping website, that means nothing else can be brought into the discussion? I buy and use TG figs. I also use BRIS pace/class ratings with them.. I gather as much information as humanly possible before I place my hard-earned money down on that tellers counter. I\'m not a person who is a be-all, end-all speed handicapper. Are those the qualifications that are required to post around here? Well if those are the requirements why are you posting? Based on TG figures, Esky would be a very high % bounce candidate on May 1st, yet he\'s your key at 2-1? I believe there\'s lots of missing information that goes into a speed figure.
I\'ll also put my pace handicapping skills up against just about anybody. I\'ve seen alot over the years and I\'m a firm believer that if they get Super Saver to rate, he\'ll put up better final times and better speed figures than Esky at 1 1/8 and beyond. I already said that will be a difficult chore to get the horse to rate.. But at 15 to 20-1, he offers far more value than a 2-1 Esky who has A) yet to be tested at a serious pace, B) encountered perfect trips except for when he faltered in the Juvy, C) has shown zero tactical speed, D) figures to bounce on TG figs.
Mjellish.. When and where has Esky had to run a hard fraction? Or is that irrelevant to you?
Super Saver will be a use, not a key. He\'s not exactly my premo Derby pick.
It\'s not irrelevant to me. I think I\'ve even posted that here on this board. But no one, and I mean no one, that means not one of these other three year olds, has done anything close to what ESK has done on the track this year. And I am not going to try to make up a bad reason to discount that.
I agree with you that ESK hasn\'t run fast early. He hasn\'t had to, and I don\'t see him as having to in the Derby. Now he he reacts to that situation is whole different ballgame. But if he relaxes and get\'s a fairly clean trip, by my count he has 10 lengths to spare on the rest of this field. Now I haven\'t been up here on this board saying that that makes him the winner, but it\'s a lot to overcome. And if he trains lights out the final week before the derby then I\'m going to have some tough decisions to make because I haven\'t found much of value that I can be confident in to use underneath him.
For what it\'s worth, I like your take on Endorsement. I even ordered up his sheet and plan to keep a close eye on him. Call me crazy, but for some reason I also think Discreetly Mine may jump up in the Derby. Mom and Dad both won at 1 1/4 and it looks like he can run all day as well. He also has a decent two year old top and should get a good trip right behind the speed. He\'s going to have to improve a bit to hit the board, but if he does it should be at big odds and that would be enough even if Lucky and/or Sid\'s Candy hit the board with him.
But do I really want to bet my $ on Discreetly Mine to hit the board in the Derby?
Does that give you an idea of how bad I may be reaching trying to find SOMEONE to make money in the Derby? And I\'m still not going anywhere near Super Saver.
For what it\'s worth, I think Zenyatta would have burried Super Saver yesterday.
Sekrah,
You will get your 15-1 or 20-1. The value will be there. Good luck with it.
For the record, there is a difference between being a figure player and a sheets purist. Yes, I guess there will be lots of purists that will play Eskendereya to bounce, the same way they played Big Brown to bounce. I am not going to play a bounce unless there is something I see to warrant it (negative workouts or visible appearance). I just re-watched the horse\'s three races this year now and he has improved from start to start. He has become more tractable and finished faster in each race.
Last point, then I am finished with it for now. This fast pace you keep talking about it is going to hurt your horse SUper Saver, more than it is going to hurt Eskendereya. What makes you think Eskendereya needs a slow pace and/or the lead? First race back he was on top of a 47.3 / 1:11.3 pace, then he rated off of 47.4/1:12.2, then he rated even farther off of a 49.1/1:13.2. And if it matters, in his dirt race last year, he sat 5th of 5, before winning.
He is the tractable.
10 lenghts on the rest of the field after beating a 2nd-tier crop of three year olds by 9? I respectively disagree with the figure on the Wood. Awesome Act throws a shoe at the gate and runs what, a 1 or 2? I love these figures more than anything but I\'ll pass on that one.
The questions of how Esky reacts to getting behind a wall of horses and having to use tactical speed to hit the holes is enough to steer me away from 2-1. He has never had to shoot a gap and re-rate. He\'s been a one-run horse so far.
Agree that Discreetly Mine is due for a massive jump-up one of these days for sure. Maybe during the Triple Crown, if not he certaintly should be a major player this summer.
Jeez, I didn\'t realize I would start such a debate with this but since there\'s one going on, let me add a few things on Super Saver.
First, assuming he paired or moved forward slightly yesterday, more so than any horse heading into the race other than Rule, this one has a pattern that suggests he will move forward in the Derby so we wouldn\'t be playing him to be the horse he was yesterday, it was the horse he will be on Derby Day.
Second, I don\'t think Pletcher had him fully cranked for yesterday. He needed to run well but Pletcher didn\'t want him over the top 3 weeks before the Derby.
Third, and this I think is a big deal, horses with a little turf pedigree tend to get over the Churchill track very well and this guy obviously has that kind of pedigree. Obviously at least some of the Maria\'s Mons like the Churchill surface (see Monarchos) and other recent winners with turfy pedigrees include Barbaro and Big Brown. Remember, this guy set a stakes record as a 2 year old over the Churchill surface so I think it\'s fair to say he might like the Churchill strip more than the Oaklawn surface.
Bottom line from points 2 and 3 is that we should see a better horse on Drby day than we did yesterday so I think too much emphasis on what we saw yesterday becomes counter productive after a point.
Fourth, in terms of him not passing Line of David after a dream trip, LOD got loose on the lead on a race track that turned out to be a merry go round with the 1 2 3 finishers running around the track in that order. Now, maybe Dublin\'s no good either for not being able to pass SS or maybe Line of David is a really good horse for not letting either SS or Dublin pass but Churchill is a different surface in that regard as well.
Finally, I think anyone who tosses Calvin out of the Derby needs to rethink things. In a 20 horse field, when about 18 of the jockeys are scared out of their minds, this guy will make up alot of lenghts.
In the last 3 Derby\'s he\'s been 1, 3rd and 1st and we are going to toss him all together on a horse with a live pattern that\'s going 3rd off the layoff that set a stakes record over the course as a 2 year old that he\'s bred to love? Come on, really?
I agree that unless something really bad happens to Esk either before the race or during the race (and I really hope it doesn\'t as I would love to see him take a run at the triple crown), they are all running for second but I think this guy deserves a look underneath at 15 to 1 or more.
Jim-- agree with everything but the merry-go-round. Ground loss, ground loss, ground loss.
Jim,
You make a good case. And it is certainly not surprising to me to see TGJB agree with what you write.
Now with this next section I am about to write, I should be probably be banned, but I can\'t resist.
The reason I am not surprised to see TGJB agree with you is that I believe from memory that the sheets of both Super Saver and Rule are extremely similar to a horse that TGJB touted in his Derby Seminar, his Preakness analysis and at least another race or two after that, a few years back. Jim, before you unload on Super Saver or Rule, i would suggest you go back to the archives and review the sheet of High Limit going into the Derby/Triple Crown a few years back. I could be wrong, but I believe the horse had a \"1\" as a 2 year old, at Delaware Park. Came back in a Fair Grounds race and paired the 1 as a ROTW winner. Lots of criticism on this board of TGJB\'s figure for that race (not from me, but others). The horse then ran in the Bluegrass and was touted again by TGJB but after a soft trip on the lead, got run over by a 3w/3w Bandini (who ran a negative 3 or so). I believed he paired up again in that race, another \"1\". So, going into the Derby he had all the traditional sheet profile factors (and was about 20-1, similar to Rule and Super SAver). He had the big 2 year old top, paired it twice at 3, and seemed poised for the \"move forward\" in the Derby and had a pattern \"sitting on go\". TGJB called him the \"value of the Derby\" (or something like that).
Many of us on this board, myself included, thought he was much more likely to come in last than first. He was going from races where the race dynamics were in his favor (soft leads) to a race with a hot early pace. The pattern he had was a moot point to those that factored in things like pace and race dynamcis. He ran miserably. I think with an excuse (but I don\'t remember for sure).
The epitaph was that He came back and ran as miserable in the Preakness. Then ran again later in the year, miserable. Maybe ran on turf after that, badly again. Not sure he ever ran another \"1\".
Many on this board put the whole blame on what they perceived as TGJB\'s \"bad figure\" in the Louisiana Derby. I was not in that camp. I think it was just race dynamics, with a horse that needed the lead to run his best figure and needed an unpressured lead, especially at 1 1/4 miles.
I think I am going to do now, what I should have done before I wrote this and pulled his sheet, but i am pretty sure I am right about it.
TGJB, sorry for bringing up old wounds. But I am sure the figure for the Louisiana Derby was correct, no matter what Chuckles and Class had to say about it :)
Jim
Some similarities, some not so much. And he did okay later.
TGJB,
Thanks for posting the sheet. What do you find not similar? (of course, no horses have the exact same sheet).
Good 2 year old top, paired tops in both preps at 3. Speed horse that tried to rate going into his last prep before the Derby (just like Super Saver). Paired in the race, making it look like a \"go\" pattern. Now faces what appears to be much more speed in the Derby. (h_pace for Derby).
High Limit ran 5 races at 3 after his Bluegrass and didn\'t get back to the \"1\".
I forgot that he ran a good one at 4 years old. (age is a terrible thing, can\'t remember everything)
Jimbo-- First of all, haven\'t done the Arkansas Derby yet, but let\'s say it\'s a pair. The big difference is the 2yo pattern, much better for 3yo development with SS.
Worth noting that of the 5 later starts as a 3yo for HL, one came over a dead rail, and two came on grass. Also, remember there was the whole super-testing thing in the TC races for the first time that year.
And of course that raises a whole bunch of questions this year as well. Surface changes, testing questions... easy game.
I think you make some good points Jim, but to my eye Super Saver is toast at 1 1/4. I understand your point about his pattern, but Pletcher tends to get his tops from a 3 year old 2nd out, not 3rd (you probably don\'t need to see the trainer profile to know that). So if I was a betting man, and I am, I would bet that TAP had Super Saver fully cranked for the ARK Derby. Why wouldn\'t he? It\'s a million dollar race and ESK looks pretty tough right now.
So I don\'t see a new top coming from him in the Derby, especially at the distance.
With regards to how the track was playing on Saturday there were 7 front running winners (3 that went Wire to Wire), one pace presser, and 3 that came from far out of it. To me that doesn\'t add up to a very strong speed bias.
You make a good point about a horse having an affinity for Churchill, which can be important. That track has a higher clay content to it than most others, a sort of throw back to they used to be. It can be a quirky surface, even more so than others, and some horses can really take to it.
I somewhat agree with your opinion on Borel, but I just don\'t think it matters in this case because I don\'t think the horse can get the distance. Put him on Mission Impazible or Endoresement and now you\'ve captured my interest as a possible longshot underneath type.
Everytime I handicap this race out this year I keep coming back to ESK and Lucky. They just look to be by far and away the two best. Makes me feel like a complete wuss. I sure hope I can find something in how they all work or this is going to set up to potentially be a very frustrating derby for me.
Jimbo,
This was a cool analogy to raise. Very interesting.
The issue for me is that all of the horses not named Eskendereya have huge question marks associated with them and at least this guy has a good pattern, rated a bit in his last, likes the track, has the best jock for the race and will be the right price.
The others have just as big if not bigger questions but will be much lower prices or they don\'t look very good at all:
LAL - you have raised all of the very real issues there and low odds
Sydney\'s Candy - Race shape and never been on dirt. Will be 2nd/3rd choice so low odds
Ice Box - Shut down after the wire in the Fla Derby and looks like a bounce pattern (note what Pleasant Prince did off off a similar pattern albeit on a different surface on Sat)
Noble\'s promise - doesn\'t want any part of 1 1/4 and might be banged up now anyway
Line of David - race shapes and bounce candidate
Mission Impazzible - race shapes and as a half to Forest Camp, there\'s no way he wants 1 1/4
Stately Victor - Slow, maybe a poly specialist and bounce
Conveyance - race shapes and distance
American Lion - better than alot of the others but still race shapes and slow figs but he could still move forward in the derby so that\'s why I say ok
Dublin - couldn\'t beat SS on Sat, not the best looking pattern
Discreetly Mine - no figures good enough and race shapes, could move forward in Derby but alot slower than SS to start and won\'t have Calvin
I could go on but its about the same with all of the others.
I can\'t throw everyone out underneath against Esk. Someone has to come in 2nd and 3rd if he wins, don\'t they?
MJ
Mission Impazzible is half to Forest Camp, he would certainly seem to me to more distance challenged than a Maria\'s Mon out of AP Indy Mare with a 3rd dam by northern dancer that set a track record at 8.5f.
I don\'t see super saver as distance limited but maybe I am missing something which is why all of this back and forth is good.
Totally agree with Esk. Unless something happens between now and then it\'s his to loose but I am not sold on LAL yet. He\'s going to find alot of traffic trouble in this derby as alot of these speedballs stop in front of him and GoGo will probably have him 10 wide after the rash of guff he took from Baffert after the last race. He\'s only slightly faster than the rest of the crew beyond Esk going in so it\'s not like he has 10 lengths to give up and still hit the board like Esk does.
Agree with you about MI pedigree. But, I also have to look at how the horse runs on the track, which I believe trumps pedigree. He was the only horse to close and win at Fair Grounds on LA Derby day, although he didn\'t exactly do it very fast or in dominating style. Either way I give him a slight upgrade for that performance. I don\'t know what his last number was, but I think his pattern will be good. The lack of 2 year old foundation and experience is probably the biggest negative. But yes, he has some big question marks. They all do. Looks like a slow crop of three year olds, so i\'m going to have to lower the bar. I know I am reaching a bit.
I Still have a couple of weeks to pull this together.
Works, works, works... going to be the key this year. Anyone that is stepping up AND pops at the added distance will probably have a great shot to get up for a piece.
Hell, you may even be able to structure a whole bet this year just based on wether you think Sidney\'s Candy can rate or not. He\'s going to take a lot of money.
MJ,
couldn\'t agree with you more about the works.
before last year, the derby winner going back for a bunch of years has fired a big time bullet at some point between their final prep and the race. If not their last work, then the next to last work has always been a big big one.
Then of course that dam cowboy showed up last year with his trailer and won his one thoroughbred race for the year last year. Still shaking my head about that a year later.
Jim,
You are right, somebody has to finish underneath even if Eskendereya is as good as some think.
And for now, I don\'t have any good ideas on that yet, other than to say that I will likely throw out all horses that I expect to be pace compromised and also throw out Lookin at Lucky, who I have a strong negative opinion on.
But for now, my betting strategy around the derby is to \"fire hard\" into the Oaks-Derby double pool, as I am very anti-Blind Luck and she figures to go off favored. And also to play the pick-4 into the Derby, likely singling Eskendereya.
I want to see workouts and analyze final sheets of the entrants before I put in my Superfecta tickets with Esky on top. Although the Superfecta in the derby brings back bad memories for me from a couple years back. Possibly dumbest move in a long list of dumb moves over the years (like a lot of gamblers). I had a very strong pro-Tale of Ekati stance and a pretty strong Denis of Cork stance on this board before the Derby. And we all know that Big Brown was the standout horse that year. However, I was expecting Eight Belles to run in the Oaks and was sure she was \"over the top\" and was looking to bet against her at short odds in the Oaks. Well, when she entered into the Derby instead of the Oaks, she went from 3-5 to about 11-1 and the \"view of her\" should have changed from \"over the top\" to \"outside of Big Brown, she was the next fastest horse in the race, with multiple races at that level\" and a must-use. I threw her out. She comes 2nd, my 30-1 and 40-1 shots finish out the super, paying 40 or 50k and a few people on this board thank me for talking them into TAle of Ekati and helping them hit the super. I got \"oogats\" for the day because I was so sure Eight Belles was not going to run well....
Guess I\'ll throw my hat in the ring with the heavy hitters:
1) Eskie-- fastest, bred for any distance, 5/2 -- 3/1 on Derby Day. Are his
figures \"pumped up\" by his large margins of victory in the 5 runner off the turf
Pilgrim, the FOY and a very weak Wood?
Who has he beaten? NW2LT Aikenite? Calder Stallion Series star Jackson Bend? A
compromised Awesome Act? The one-two finishers in the Florida Derby came out from
Eskie\'s FOY and picked up the pieces of a race which fell apart in front of them.
2) LAL-- Prolific winner from multiple Derby winning trainer. Was he fully
cranked when he zeroed at OP in the Rebel in his first dirt try? Pedigree just
fine, has been pointed towards this race since winning the Del Mar Futurity in
September. I am stuck with him at 9/1 in futures pool 2.
3) Sidney\'s Candy -- Does he jump forward first try dirt? Would be willing to
annoint him as speed of the speed but according to DRF he has broken poorly in 2
of his last 4 starts.
4) Super Saver-- Like the fact that he won a two turn CD stake last fall. Leaning
towards thinking he can get the distance.
5) Mission Impazible -- Another with a pedigree which should not limit him. A
nifty Louisiana Derby win, but no works since according to DRF.
6) Ice Box and 7) Awesome Act -- one run types who will need to have their GPSs
working to get through the 20 horse field; there is no question they will get the
pace up front they seem to require. Very good decision by AA\'s trainer Noseda to
train AA up to the Derby on the deep Belmont training track.
My first two stone cold tosses: Stately Victor and Deans Kitten, the turf/synth
duo from Michael \"Miracle\" Maker.
Fun Fact: Sons of Birdstone accounted for 2 of the 3 legs of last years Triple
Crown; not a single Birdstone runner among this year\'s contenders.
Richie
Mission Impazible worked 4f breezing on Sunday at PM along with Rule and Discreetly Mine.
Borels take back to last style 1w1w trip is perfect in this year\'s field.You have a bunch of front running pressing types that never passed horses routing:
Rule
Super Saver
Sidneys Candy
American Lion
Line of David
Conveyance
Discreetly Mine
His talents seem wasted on a horse like Super Saver IMO unless he can get him back off it and rating.I have my doubts on that happening.
Think the race comes down to sorting these out over the next couple of weeks:
Esk
LAL
Endorsement
Ice Box
Mission Impazible
Uh Oh Bango
The last two showed an interest in passing horses going 9f\'s on dirt.They might be okay with inside posts.Ice Box on running style figures to pass at least 3/4\'s of the field.
Big--
Thanks for the update on the MI work.
> But yes, he has some big question marks. They all
> do. Looks like a slow crop of three year olds, so
> i\'m going to have to lower the bar. I know I am
> reaching a bit.
In what year in the past decade has there been a good crop of three year olds? \"Slow Crop of 3yos\" seems to be a statement that we hear every April around here.
This years proclaimed \"Super Horse\" that many people around here are way too eager to unload on him at 2-1, has questions marks. I would even go so far as to say that every Derby winner in the history of the race has had question marks coming in.
DRF reports Uh Oh Bango is out of the Derby.
I would agree with this but if \"it\'s a game of percentages\" he has the fewest amount of question marks and a lot of said percentages in his favor.
I\'ve cost myself a lot of money in recent weeks looking for \"chinks\" in the armor of favorites. Unless his workouts are lousy he\'s the key. Yes, I know anything can happen in a 20 horse field, but again playing the percentages has me keying this horse and finding the value underneath.
Who exactly has Eskendereya defeated to warrant this excitement?
Jackson Bend, who was destroyed by Stanley Gold running an outrageous 2-year old campaign?
Aikenite, whose lone win is a 6 furlong Maiden race last August?
The only half-decent horse he beat in the Wood was Awesome Act who threw a shoe at the gate and went wide-wide under a stranglehold.
Who exactly has this horse beaten?
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>>
> Who exactly has this horse beaten?
Who has any horse beeaten on the derby trail? The question is who has done it the way Esky has..That I can answer..
Although I have not seen the SA Derby numbers, I am inclined to like Setsuko to be on the ticket. He should run all day and comes from good connections. He just needs a couple more defections to get in.
Yeah. Definitely a question mark, but can we ask the same for any horse on the Derby Trail?
Not saying it\'s you, but it\'s funny when I read certain people say that this horse hasn\'t beaten anyone and then read that this crop of 3yo is poor.
Who he\'s not only beaten but run into the ground in his last two races is irrelevant. If that\'s a strong enough angle for people to play against him then be my guest because IMO there a lot more relevant and important angles in his favor.
Sekrah,
First, to answer your question about who ESK has beat, he has beat the Gotham Stakes winner by nearly 12 lengths, the Florida Derby winner by 12 lengths,the Lane\'s End winner by 34 lengths, the Ocala Sophomore Stakes winner, and he has beaten the 3/3 winner of Florida Stallion series by about 9 lengths twice in a row. He is 4/4 on the dirt and he is annihilating his competition. I haven\'t seen Sidney\'s Candy final # yet, but regardless of what it is I am confident in saying that ESK\'s last number would have beat SC and any other three year old in any race so far this year, by a lot, and I think his number before that in the FOY would have also been good enough to beat any other race run this year.
Now that doesn\'t mean you have to like him for the derby, but this is a speed figure board, no? So if you want to poke holes in ESK, poke them in another place. Tell us why he is going to bounce or regress. Give me something real to ponder. But don\'t tell me ESK hasn\'t beat anyone, which implies he can\'t run very fast, because he has run fast. Very fast. As a matter of fact, he\'s got Big Brown type numbers. And according to those numbers, that makes him fast enough to beat every other three year old that has run so far this year. That\'s what we are up against if we play against him.
Now I happen to be in an ok position with a future bet down on this guy at 60-1, but as far as betting more money on this year\'s derby goes I don\'t like the fact that ESK is such a stick out anymore than you probably do. But it is what it is. And I\'m not going to write a bunch of nonsense about him not beating anyone, or that Super Saver is going to get the 1 1/4 better, or yada yada just to make myself feel better about betting against him. Let\'s wait and see how he trains. See if he shows any sign of a bounce coming. Or at least tell me why the trip is going to kill him.
Don\'t take this personally, but it is becoming hard for me to take you seriously when you keep posting so much nonsense on this board.
Well stated. I have him at only 22/1 but that doesn\'t mean he can\'t bounce to the moon or just suck up for third while Sidney\'s Candy wires the field. Strange things can happen.
Will be nice to see the final #s for this years field going in.
In terms of comparing Eskie to BB (and to be fair I seem to remember BB being less
than sound of hoof throughout the Triple Crown campaign, edge Eskie) a pure
analysis of the numbers (and I do not believe in patterns established on the
Derby chase) might lead one to look at how fast Eskie is in terms of separation
from his competition and review BB similarly.
Checking the archives, in 08 Big Brown went in with the fastest TG, a negative 3
in the Fl Derby. Pyro was next fastest on the basis of a negative 1 he ran in the
goo as a 2YO in the BC Juvie. Smooth Air ran to a 02 chasing BB in
Hallandale;Gayego and Z Fortune were at negative 01and negative 03
in the Arkansas Derby.
So in 08, throwing out Pyro\'s 2YO TG (remember he seemed to lose his focus after
what was supposed to be a conditioning run in the Blue Grass?), BB was arguably
3 TG points faster than his fastest rivals going in.
Will Eskie enjoy the same separation over his rivals in terms of TG # power? Out
of the 19 that will face Eskie in the gate, how many will have broken
negative ground? Is this too simple a way to look at the numbers (again I do not
believe in patterns as such in the Derby-- too much ground to be lost, engineered
regressions (obviously not in Eskie\'s case) and distance limitations (not Eskie
of course)).
Of course as MJellish will certainly remember, what made the 08 Big Brown Derby
memorable for some was that Pyro ran 9th in the Derby, Z Fortune 11th, Smooth Air
12th, and Gayego 17th. Big Brown, the fastest going in, moved forward; his
fastest rivals barely moved at all.
That\'s a great futures play on Eskie, bringing to mind Jimbo\'s bold future play of 09.
Maybe its wrong to say that Eskie hasn\'t beaten anything, but if you are backing
Eskie is it wrong to be concerned about the lack of resistance he has had in
winning his last 2 races, even if said lack of resistance is a function of his
superiority?
MJ:
You make great points. Sometimes, myself included, we tend to find \"chinks\" when we see the absence of value.
To the Remainder of the Derby Forum:
Rather than poke holes in the best 3 yo colt in the Derby (numbers wise), find the best value horse who you think will run better than the rest of us think.
Perhaps its Discreetly Mine, or Awesome Act, or Conveyance.
Then add value by hooking your \"sleeper \" with the likes of Esky, Sidney, Lucky, etc. Besides, your exacta will pay better odds than a win play,and you\'re scoring out even if you run second. (see Bluegrass Cat in 2006).
Good Luck,
Joe B.
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think you make some good points Jim, but to my
> eye Super Saver is toast at 1 1/4. I understand
> your point about his pattern, but Pletcher tends
> to get his tops from a 3 year old 2nd out, not 3rd
> (you probably don\'t need to see the trainer
> profile to know that).
mjellish, one of the reasons I visit this board is to read exchanges between knowledgeable handicappers such as what you and Covell are doing here. In this instance, your post raises a question and an observation from me. When you talk about Pletcher\'s \"track record\" with 3 year olds, and their 2nd and 3rd times out, how does that jibe with Eskendreya\'s 3 year old efforts, to date? That\'s my question, and my observation is that, in the past few years, I\'ve developed a reticence about using the phrase \"can\'t get the distance\" when it comes to Derby analysis, because I have by-passed more than a few successful Derby entrants who have been labeled as such. I can offer no theoretical underpinnings for this, and I am certainly no pedigree analyst, but, it has added one more layer of uncertainty to the mix
My comment was meant to reinforce my belief that Super Saver was fully cranked for the ARK Derby.
Anyone that really follows this game at the top level of racing probably realizes that Pletcher over the years can get red hot, suddenly, and his entire stable starts to go off and run new tops. That is exactly what happened this year down in Florida. And when you start to see that, a good player will pay attention and begin to wonder why.
I wonder why. And I wonder what it is going to mean under tighter testing standards come first Saturday in May.
I will always trust what thoro number you see with pattern. It makes absolutely NO sense whatsoever for someone to think that a horse can get 9F and not 10F especially at this championship level...its just nonsense.
A horse with nice rest and pattern with better thoro numbers will almost always run faster than a horse with slower thoro numbers who can so called \"get the distance\"... \"getting the distance\" is a bogus variable with handicapping until u compare the numbers together and see who is faster than who at a shorter distance (especially assuming most of these horses or all of these havent run that long yet).. at that point you can check rest, value and determine whether it is a good play. At this level its all about the pattern and numbers these horses are running along with rest. The saying of \"not getting distance\" doesnt exist because it HASNT existed before for all of these horses.. so we can only go by 1F or so and less to make that determination adn fair comparison.. comparing the thoro numbers for a slightly lowered distance is much better than saying a horse with a 5 going 9F is going to run out of his mind today at 10F because his pedigree shows that it can happen compared to a horse who has run consistent 1s and 2s at 9F.. makes no sense whatsoever.
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My comment was meant to reinforce my belief that
> Super Saver was fully cranked for the ARK Derby.
>
>
> Anyone that really follows this game at the top
> level of racing probably realizes that Pletcher
> over the years can get red hot, suddenly, and his
> entire stable starts to go off and run new tops.
> That is exactly what happened this year down in
> Florida. And when you start to see that, a good
> player will pay attention and begin to wonder why.
>
>
> I wonder why. And I wonder what it is going to
> mean under tighter testing standards come first
> Saturday in May.
Thanks for the clarification, and yes, he was on quite a roll this spring, in Florida and elsewhere. On the face of it, one horse lays over the field, yet there are some questions which won\'t go away.
I couldn\'t disagree with you more on this NYC. I don\'t want to come across like I know it all, because I don\'t, and I\'m pretty sure you aren\'t going to listen to me. But I\'m going to try this one more time.
I am glad you belive in pattern handicapping. I think it can be one of the best ways to spot horses on the improve and therefore at good odds, and you seem to know your way around a sheet. There are times when pattern handicapping is the key to making money on a race (provided you bet it correctly). But there are also times when pattern doesn\'t matter at all, or when a horse will \"defy\" his pattern. If you\'ve been using sheets as long as you say you have, you have got to know this to be true.
The saying about a horse \"not getting the distance\" is very, very real, my friend. In fact, most horses have fairly distinct preferences, and many of them have hard limits. You don\'t need to take my word for it, and we don\'t need to debate it. Just ask any trainer, the people who actually work with these animals every day.
Now when it comes to knowing how far a horse can optimally run, I agree with your earlier post that you can\'t just go by breeding. Horses outrun their breeding all the time, just like many underperform their breeding. Trainers can usually get an inkling about how far a horse is going to want to go based on body type, stride, conformation and how they train. But sometimes they have to try horses at longer distances in order to know for sure. They have to take their shot.
I have gotten to know a few of these trainers over the years. And I promise you, most if not all of them will tell you that there is a distinct diference between 9F and 10F. Now you are right from the standpoint that a horse on the improve under the right circumstances can sometimes stretch his distance limitations. And a horse can win a race at almost any distance if his competition lays down for him. But very rarely will a horse deliver a peek performance at a distance that is either too short or too long for him. And it usually takes a peek performance to win a Grade I at a 1 1/4 like the Kentucky Derby.
Look at this way. There aren\'t many track and field athletes that are just as effective in the 100M dash as they are at the 400M. Same thing applies to horses. Quite simply, the way horses are bred these days in North America there are now far more horses that can\'t deliver a peek performance than ones that can at 10F or longer. Why do you think so few races are run at 1 1/4 or longer? How many dirt races are there a year at 1 1/2?
If you think all it takes is a good pattern at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 to run well at the longer classic distances, especially at the Grade I level, you are going to lose A LOT of money betting races at the classic distances. I can almost promise you that.
But like I said, don\'t take my word for it. Just ask any trainer.
Nicely articulated MJ. And you might have added that they have to carry 126 lbs. this special race....
Leamas
> I am glad you belive in pattern handicapping. I
> think it can be one of the best ways to spot
> horses on the improve and therefore at good odds,
> and you seem to know your way around a sheet.
> There are times when pattern handicapping is the
> key to making money on a race (provided you bet it
> correctly). But there are also times when pattern
> doesn\'t matter at all, or when a horse will \"defy\"
> his pattern. If you\'ve been using sheets as long
> as you say you have, you have got to know this to
> be true.
When you say \"defy\" you are using a very SMALL example of something that is out of the ordinary. Typically we can categorize horses thru their specific patterns (consistent, forging, regressing, all over the place, etc). I am specifically talking here about entering a race where we know what a horses line is and what his capabilities are.
>
> The saying about a horse \"not getting the
> distance\" is very, very real, my friend. In fact,
> most horses have fairly distinct preferences, and
> many of them have hard limits. You don\'t need to
> take my word for it, and we don\'t need to debate
> it. Just ask any trainer, the people who actually
> work with these animals every day.
The FIRST and ONLY thing I do as \"distance\" is label a horse as a One Turn Horse, a Two turn horse or a horse who can run both in comparison to his thoro number. That to me is that only thing I can say about a horse overall that would allow me to gauge his future distance efforts in the future going a certain distance. Once I get past that small hump I can then move on with comparison of those type efforts to allow me to see what he will run next. YES 6F is NOT 10F and should only be compared to when u are looking at form and some kind of pattern or consistent efforts. The point is that if a horse has shown me he can run TWO turns going lets say 8F and everything is in line.. then THAT horse has in my opinion the same shot to run consistent efforts at 9F and up. Distance at THIS LEVEL is completely overanalyzed as these are ALL horses who can get the 2 turns... if not they wouldnt be here right now. Taking such a simple analyzation we can move forward to see who has what it takes to run the best figure that day using the pattern analysis.
>
> Now when it comes to knowing how far a horse can
> optimally run, I agree with your earlier post that
> you can\'t just go by breeding. Horses outrun
> their breeding all the time, just like many
> underperform their breeding. Trainers can usually
> get an inkling about how far a horse is going to
> want to go based on body type, stride,
> conformation and how they train. But sometimes
> they have to try horses at longer distances in
> order to know for sure. They have to take their
> shot.
>
Once again if a horse gets 8F and runs bad at 9F theres a REALLY good reason for it. I would like to have an example of a horse that was able to run 8F and not 9F that WASNT in line with his pattern or his numbers.. obviously bouncing would not count or something like poor rest such as a big brown situation etc... MOST horses (like a HUUUUUGE percent) who can get the two turns run pretty much in line with those efforts between 8 and 10F.. look at any horses now and u will see urself. If a horse runs in line but never wins at a certain distance, thats a much different story as he may very well be running against a faster horse every time.. and thats always a huge possibility... but that doesnt mean he cannot get that distance.
> I have gotten to know a few of these trainers over
> the years. And I promise you, most if not all of
> them will tell you that there is a distinct
> diference between 9F and 10F. Now you are right
> from the standpoint that a horse on the improve
> under the right circumstances can sometimes
> stretch his distance limitations. And a horse can
> win a race at almost any distance if his
> competition lays down for him. But very rarely
> will a horse deliver a peek performance at a
> distance that is either too short or too long for
> him. And it usually takes a peek performance to
> win a Grade I at a 1 1/4 like the Kentucky Derby.
Yes it takes a peak performance but how about all the other horses in the derby who have run in line with their figures and HAVE NOT won the derby? if a horse came into the derby with a 7 and ran a 6 he probably got blown out by the field but he DID get the distance correct? Even look at last years Derby! the top 8 finishers were perfectly in line with their top efforts for the year the KEY is that a horse like Chocolate Candy DIDNT win because he was simply not fast enough NOT because he couldnt get the distance.. u understand what i mean? Same goes for the 6 others who ran within their top efforts BUT didnt win!
>
>
> Look at this way. There aren\'t many track and
> field athletes that are just as effective in the
> 100M dash as they are at the 400M. Same thing
> applies to horses. Quite simply, the way horses
> are bred these days in North America there are now
> far more horses that can\'t deliver a peek
> performance than ones that can at 10F or longer.
> Why do you think so few races are run at 1 1/4 or
> longer? How many dirt races are there a year at 1
> 1/2?
100M to 400M for HUMANS is an example of a %400 distance increase!!!! How can THAT compare to horses at all?!!? AND with humans some of those athletes go on turns as well! Cant compare it at all!
>
> If you think all it takes is a good pattern at 1
> 1/16 or 1 1/8 to run well at the longer classic
> distances, especially at the Grade I level, you
> are going to lose A LOT of money betting races at
> the classic distances. I can almost promise you
> that.
I am not saying that is all it takes BUT as the year goes on the horses that are heading to those classic races eventually run races and prep at those distanceS AND the numbers are all pretty much in line. As the Derby approaches these 3 year olds do not have the convenience for that so we can only go by what they have already run and take it as our best gauge just as the top 8 finishers in last years derby and the top NINE in the 2008 Derby.. check out Recapturetheglory when u get a chance. 17 horses right in line with their pattern on derby day the last 2 years and MANY others as well if u include obvious bounce patterns...these horses lose because they arent fast enough NOT because they cant get distance.. every horse has their own specific capabilities and have proven constantly to run top efforts and/or in line when it comes to one or turn situations deppending on the horse).. theres nothing else more i can say.. once a horse gets the 2 turns and is in line.. they are good to go from 8F to 10F as proven.
mjellish, Why make this personal because we have a difference of opinion? You think I\'m off my rocker and not being serious about the issue. I disagree with your view of Esky, but I don\'t think you\'re off your rocker. We see things differently here, that is all. Goto the race track and randomnly ask two people how they handicap the races. Do you think you\'re going to get the same answers?
I love using speed figures, especially TG numbers. I purchase and use them to my benefit all the time. Sometimes I come across figures I disagree with, but the vast majority I accept to be the best number out there. However, I also use other tools in breaking down these speed figures. Those are my own pace figures along with my own energy distribution theories.
Eskendereya is obviously a very fast race horse, one of the fastest 3-year olds this year, no doubt about it. But my methodology tells me Eskendereya has also been an ultra lucky horse the past 2 races. I believe he had near-premium/ideal race setups both times to run the best possible figure he could have run. These are factors out of Eskendereya\'s control. A horse coming into the last year\'s Derby had a very similar go of it. 3 consecutive wins, each more impressive than the last, but in each of those 3 races the horse was given a premium race-setup. That horse was Friesan Fire. Friesan Fire went ahead with that blowout :57.4 workout and looked like the Derby winner, but he finally found the troubles that a 20-horse field is likely to present and he was unable to overcome them with his one-trick pony running style that I think Eskendereya shares. On the flip side I see Super Saver, another very fast horse who I believe has yet to have that optimum trip. He may or may not get that trip as well in the Derby, but I rate his chances to get it higher than Esky\'s based on better athletic agility. And at 15 or 20-1, he\'s a much easier use for me.
We have different opinions, different methods. I\'d like to think mine has served me well over the years as I\'ve had success with it. You\'ve clearly been successful with your methods. You\'ve had some great calls on here. I had last years Brooklyn/Belmont double posted on here. There\'s many paths to victory in horse racing. Every single person on this forum has their own different quirks/methods to decide on a horse before they bet it. I realize that you have a strong emotional tie-in to Esky because of the big futures wager you have going, but you\'re basically calling me a nutjob because I see some things differently than you?
Sekrah,
In which post did mjellish say you were \"off your rocker?\"
In which post did mjellish basically call you \"a nutjob?\"
I haven\'t seen anything in any of his posts to indicate a strong emotional tie-in to Esky because of his futures wager. I take it a guy like mjellish is looking to capitalize a lot more on the Derby than his initial futures wager. With the exception of yourself, can you name 5 people in this room that wouldn\'t like to have a 60/1 futures bet on Esk?
Mjellish has shown he is on the very, very, very short list of the best cappers on this forum. If you can\'t at least respect his rational and methodology, then, other than yourself, who can do you respect?
Peace out.
Sek,
You have stated that Super Saver will get the 1 1/4 better than ESK, and that ESK has not beat anyone.
I\'m not making this personal. I\'m just calling you directly on your recent posts. If you post it, be prepared to defend it, and preferably with something logical.
That\'s all. Peace out.
There are some separate issues being discussed here. One, is the notion of distance capabilities, in general, as a handicapping tool. It can\'t be ignored. Now, how you determine this, and when you apply it, is a matter for discussion well beyond my scope, but, when discussed, I pay attention. The other matter relates to the use of the phrase \"can\'t get the distance,\" when analyzing the Derby. Here, we move beyond the technical or empirical to the anecdotal, but, all I can say is that I would have liked to have booked the bets in the past few Derbies from all the bettors who I read, or talked with, who wrote horses off because \"they couldn\'t get the distance.\" Now, when mjellish uses that phrase, I won\'t book his bet because he knows more about handicapping in his little pinkie than I do in my whole cranium, but, it has nonetheless become a phrase in Derby handicapping that I look upon with caution, and is often used by handicappers as a convenient tool to dismiss horses who are not their anointed first choice.
Yes I believe Super Saver will get 1 1/4 better than Esky.. I\'ve already explained why so.
The Gotham winner Esky beat threw a shoe at the gate and was strangleheld while going wide around the track. You believe that was AA\'s best effort?
Do you seriously believe Ice Box was in the same condition Feb 20th in the FOY as he was on Mar 20th in the in Fla Derby? I believe A) He was a better horse on March 20th than Feb 20th, and B) he got a horrible start in the FOY and spotted a super slow-paced race 10-lengths, and ran wide/wide. A slow start in the Fla Derby actually benefited him because unlike the FOY, the horses in the Fla Derby actually ran real fractions that gave him a chance to close.
Jackson Bend is a horse that got overworked his 2yo career and has shown nothing since coming off the shelf.
Aikenite\'s career highlight was an August 09 MSW win.
I\'m not trying to be a provacative. We have an honest difference of opinion. Why does this make you so irate?
MJ-- I disagree with you about the 9f-10f thing, and I\'ve learned that trainers think they know a whole lot more than they actually do, with very, very few exceptions. BUT-- given the large number of serious contenders in both the Derby and Oaks coming from certain barns, your above post about testing is crucial and right on the button, and a point I\'m going to drill in the seminar. I\'ll be watching the results of the other graded stakes that weekend pretty carefully.
Ok Jerry. Appreciate your thoughts. Here\'s a question for you.
If we follow the normal development of 3 year old horses, overall we should see an improving curve. Meaning healthy, racing 3 year old horses tend to get better over their 3 year old seasons. You can probably plot this curve on a graph and will see a sort of linear looking curve of development. And with proper spacing and rest, most healthy 3 year olds should be following this curve to some degree or another.
Knowing this, that there is a normal curve of development behind the racing of 3 year old horses, then that curve is always there. It is always present. And we will still see the curve of development over time as horses stretch out and change distances. Furthermore, if there is no difference in the relationships between changing distances, then we should still see this same curve across all distances; meaning the curve is there equally when horses change from 6F -7F, or 8F - 9F, etc. Some should run new tops because it has been a month or 6 weeks since they last raced and they are developing and so on. And if there is no difference between going from 8F-9F or 9F-10F then this curve should still show up. It should look the same because we expect that there is development occuring no matter what distances horses are running at, and since this development curve is always the same it should show up equally across all distances. Some will be running new tops and others won\'t, but the percentages between new tops being run going from 1 mile to 1 1/8, and a 1 1/8 to 1 1/4 should be relatively constant and correlate with the curve.
Now I haven\'t done this study on your numbers, but I would be willing to bet dollars to donuts that if you run it on your own numbers and compare how often 3 year old horses run a new top the first time they go from 1 to 1 1/8th, and then compare this percentage to the first time they go from 1 1/8th to 1 1/4, and lay those over the developmental curve, you will find there is a significant statistical difference between the two. And I am not just talking about in the KY Derby. I am talking about other important races that come later in the year. I would contend that this difference is because there is some type of thoroughbred threshold that is being crossed at the distance of 1 1/4. Call it whatever you want. And I think this is one of the reasons why even with proper rest and a whole spring geared towards delivering a peak performance the first Saturday in May, so few of these suckers ever run new tops. I think it\'s less than 10%, and that doesn\'t follow the curve, and that has to mean something, and it\'s not unique to the KY Derby or just because of the traffic of 20 horse field.
Would be an interesting study, no?
MJ-- my comment was specific to the discussion of whether there was a significant difference between 9 and 10 furlongs. One of the problems with doing a study is that there are so few races for 3yos (or anybody else) at more than 9f on dirt, and one of them contains a 20 horse field and other stressors (like having been pushed to earn enough to run, and some being run when they should not because it\'s the Derby). We do have a whole bunch of TC races in the Archives if someone wants to take a look.
mjellish Wrote:
>
> Look at this way. There aren\'t many track and
> field athletes that are just as effective in the
> 100M dash as they are at the 400M. Same thing
> applies to horses. Quite simply, the way horses
> are bred these days.
This is a terrible analogy.. 100m is only 1/4 of a 400m race. 9 furlongs is 90% of a 10 furlong race. What do you think a Quarterhorse would do at 1 mile? Not very well.
> Why do you think so few races are run at 1 1/4 or
> longer? How many dirt races are there a year at 1
> 1/2?
I\'ll ask this question, why don\'t Quarterhorse tracks run 6f and 7f? Because they are Quarterhorse tracks. The horses are trained to run in short bursts and run 300, 330, 400, 440m. Put one of these horses running at a mile and you have a better
> If you think all it takes is a good pattern at 1
> 1/16 or 1 1/8 to run well at the longer classic
> distances, especially at the Grade I level, you
> are going to lose A LOT of money betting races at
> the classic distances. I can almost promise you
> that.
>
So your saying I\'ve been extremely lucky and that the odds are going to catch-up with my poor handicapping sooner or later?
I respectively disagree.
Sek,
Boy, you sure take things personally don\'t you?
I never got irrate at your posts stating that ESK hadn\'t beat anyone, which implied that he hadn\'t run fast, or that Super Saver was going to get the 1 1/4 better than ESK. I simply ASKED you to DEFEND those points of view. To that end, thus far you have said that Awesome Act didn\'t run his race in the Wood, that Jackson Bend was ruined as a two year old, the Ice Box that ran in FOY was not the same Ice Box who ran in FL Derby, and that Super Saver is going to get the 1 1/4 better because he can run faster early than ESK and will therefore get a better trip, but only if he can still find a way to rate. You have added that you are good handicapper, that you have won a bunch of money, that you posted the Brooklyn Belmont cold on this board last year, that I think you are nuts or off your rocker and must have strong emotional ties to ESK, and so on and so on.
Geez. You ask someone to defend what they said and I guess you are fair game around here.
With that being said, if what you have said so far is your defense then so be it. But I don\'t agree with much of it other than Awesome Act lost a shoe in the Wood. To me that really doesn\'t mean anything because had AA run with two EXTRA shoes he probably still wasn\'t going to beat ESK in the Wood because ESK ran really fast. Fast enough to beat anyone, and that includes the Ice Box that ran in Fl Derby. This was really the gist of my point.
Your speculation about Super Saver is just that, speculation. To defend my end, I would point out that Super Saver staggered home in the ARK Derby and barely galloped out afterwards in an all out effort, while ESK came home very fast easily and galloped out extremely strong after both the Wood and FOY.
No hard feelings or ill wishes. Just good ole fashion horse talk. Good luck in the Derby.
To defend my end, I would point out that Super Saver staggered home in the ARK Derby and barely galloped out afterwards in an all out effort, while ESK came home very fast easily and galloped out extremely strong after both the Wood and FOY.
You make this statement as if they both ran the same fractions and expended the same amount of energy early in their races. If you don\'t think Super Saver would of finished very fast easily and galloped out extremely strong after those fractions or that Esky wouldn\'t have staggered home in the Ark Derby, then there\'s really no point in arguing anymore. BTW.. That staggering home you called Super Saver, the final furlong he ran in 12.4. Quite a stagger after setting 46.1/1:10.3.
Sek,
Super Saver didn\'t go 46.1, 110.3. He went 23.05, 46.82, 111.23, 136.56 149.44 without adjusting for his 1W 2W trip. That equates to the following raw quarter times, 23.05, 23.77, 24.41, 25.33 and a final 1/8th of 12.88 or project that out to a final 25.76 if he had to go anther 1/8th,which in reality would actually be slower because he was slowing down at the end of the race. That\'s over a track that was rated 10 points fast by Beyer. Not only is that not very good when projecting out to 1 1/4, it also shows that he is a typical front running horse who progessively slows down during the race.
I agree with you that he spent more energy early than ESK does, but there is no evidence to suggest that he will go any slower in the Derby. You can hope that he rates, and maybe he will. But even if he does, he will then be further behind and there is nothing in his running line that says he will then suddenly run faster at the end. Add to that the fact that he was swearving in and out down the stretch, and I think you have a horse that ran all out for a trainer that has had them cranked and ready to go 2nd off the layoff all year, which is exactly what he was.
For the record, ESk went 24.64, 49.45, 113.62, 137.73, 149.97 in the Wood over a track that Beyer had rated 3-4 points slow. That equates to the following 1/4\'s, 24.64, 24.81, 24.17, 24.11, 12.24 or project that out to 24.48 or slower as well if he had to go another 1/8th without adjusting for his 2w 3w trip. That was on a much slower track and/or into the wind. That indicates a horse that relaxed early and ran progressively faster 1/4\'s for the first mile without slowing down as much as he should have, and the jockey never did ask him to run. Now I\'m not saying he could have run faster if asked because I\'m not sure he could have. But those are the numbers and they are much more indicitive of horse likely to get a 1 1/4.
Right on about Pletcher being hot -and wondering about testing at KD-his horses just seem to have so much stamina lately. Reminds me of Lawyer Ron\'s 2007 Whitney win when his record time was so out of whack with other races at Saratoga that day that it was questioned but eventually found accurate. TGJB response to your post was that he would keep an eye on certain barns-interested to hear both your conclusions from today.
My conclusion from today is that in the race before the Lexington he got a FILLY to run about a neg 2 on GRASS. One that had a 6 top 6 months ago.
It must be the shoes.
Rule needs a rider but keep an eye on him.
Just sayin.
not so mych...Lauren Stich picked it on 5h3 4qeio.
shanahan Wrote:
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> not so mych...Lauren Stich picked it on 5h3 4qeio.
promise not to type without my glasses in the future. Stich picked it on the radio. apologies.
Shanny, you were damn close on all of them. Good effort! Plus, you got credit for brevity, regardless.
I wish typing without my glasses was the worst of my offenses here.