guys,
haven\'t been able to follow everything on the board for the past few days as I have the family in Disney.
Richiebee, the little man is tearing up magic kingdom worse than than Equestris if that\'s possible.
Anyway, I digress.
I saw where folks were questioning what kind of number that Esk ran in the Wood.
I went ahead and ordered up the sheet and while I won\'t ever give away Jerry\'s data for free, I think he would be ok if I went ahead and said the number is bigger than anyone here has speculated.
His last figure is in a different zip code that what everyone else has run so far.
So, the debate will be if/how hard he will bounce off the number and can he bounce and still win.
This looks EXACTLY like the Big Brown setup.
one would have had to expect Big Brown to bounce huge to lose the DErby. I played it that way and lost big.
one\'s going to have to make the same assumption about Esk in order to beat him on Derby Day.
Jerry has to make him the most likely winner of the race off of this number even if he isn\'t the bet, just as he accurately did with Big Brown.
In Big Brown\'s case, Dutro publicly stated the horse was on the juice days or weeks prior to the Derby or perhaps even during the Derby - I can\'t remember the exact time line. That has to be figured when comparing the two provided Esky will be thoroughly tested prior to the Derby. Or will he?
x
Buck,
They were all on steriods then, they were legal. Dutrow wasn\'t cheating with steriods so from that standpoint, they were all on the same playing field
Another \"juiced\" Wood winner.
Well of course......
Ok. So I just downloaded the sheet for ESK myself. I didn\'t know what Jerry was going to do with the fig. I didn\'t have the Wood that fast. Looks like I was wrong according to TG.
Just wanted to say that.
Rags had him pairing his last per TAP:
By Mike Welsch of DRF
HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. - Trainer Todd Pletcher reports that Eskendereya is doing very well after his eye-catching performance in last Saturday\'s Grade 1 Wood Memorial and is back galloping over his winter base at the Palm Meadows training center.
\"Visually, it sure looked like the race wouldn\'t have taken anything out of him, but sometimes you never can tell how a race like that might affect a horse,\" Pletcher said Thursday. \"But so far everything seems good.\"
Pletcher said Eskendereya, who won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth here in similar fashion six weeks earlier, paired up career-best numbers of 2 3/4 on the Ragozin Sheets. He earned a 109 Beyer Speed Figure for the Wood, 3 points better than the 106 he received in the Fountain of Youth.
Pletcher said Eskendereya would have two more workouts prior to the Derby. The first is scheduled for Sunday, April 18, at Palm Meadows and the last, weather permitting, the following Sunday at Churchill Downs. Eskendereya will depart south Florida for Kentucky on April 20.
rhagood Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rags had him pairing his last per TAP:
>
> By Mike Welsch of DRF
> HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. - Trainer Todd Pletcher
> reports that Eskendereya is doing very well after
> his eye-catching performance in last Saturday\'s
> Grade 1 Wood Memorial and is back galloping over
> his winter base at the Palm Meadows training
> center.
>
> \"Visually, it sure looked like the race wouldn\'t
> have taken anything out of him, but sometimes you
> never can tell how a race like that might affect a
> horse,\" Pletcher said Thursday. \"But so far
> everything seems good.\"
>
> Pletcher said Eskendereya, who won the Grade 2
> Fountain of Youth here in similar fashion six
> weeks earlier, paired up career-best numbers of 2
> 3/4 on the Ragozin Sheets. He earned a 109 Beyer
> Speed Figure for the Wood, 3 points better than
> the 106 he received in the Fountain of Youth.
>
> Pletcher said Eskendereya would have two more
> workouts prior to the Derby. The first is
> scheduled for Sunday, April 18, at Palm Meadows
> and the last, weather permitting, the following
> Sunday at Churchill Downs. Eskendereya will depart
> south Florida for Kentucky on April 20.
Then he paired or thereabouts on TG. These other posts are headfakes.
Cove??
Jellish??
Well,
I dunno what to tell you. Rem and I had ESK with a slight new top in the Wood. TG has him with a pretty big move forward. Beyer says 3pts better than his last. And if this article is true, Rags more or less has him pairing.
The problem is there were only 2 races at 1 1/8th.
Whats new??
Beyer has Escy forging
Rags has Escy paired
TG has Escy with a new neg top
Should make for great interpretation of Escy\'s upcoming derby performance depending on what you believe.
Mike
Just to expand on this a little bit. You have to use the projection method to come up with the variant on this race, and you have to have the variant to do the figure.
The raw times for both of these races were slow. I think part of the reason for that is that there was a headwind in the stretch that was tricky to figure. The wind at Aqu is always tricky anyway. This means there was a tailwind on the backstretch which was going to speed up the 1 turn races and slow down the 2 turn races.
Another thing. There wasn\'t a ton of speed in either race. The horses that were 1, 2, 3 in early in the Excelsior more or less finished that way. Same thing in the Wood with the exception of the hopeless long shot Most Happy Fella. So I think it is safe to assume that were wasn\'t much early pace in either race, which Rem\'s pace numbers would confirm. When the early pace is slow I believe it tends to compress the final figure because horses can\'t come home in 34 seconds to make up for 113 3/4.. In the Excelsior the horses went 49.2, 113.79 and Goldsville came home in 37.48. In the Wood they went 49.21, 113.54 but ESK came home in 36.35 (and remember, this was into a headwind) and pulled away from the rest of the field. So we know his figure is going to be faster. But what do we use for a variant?
In order to come up with the variant it makes sense to look at the Excelsior. If you use Goldsville and assume he more or less paired, then when you come up with the variant and add it to the Wood ESK turns out to have made a big move forward. Problem is if you do it that way then you also have to assume that Nite Light ran his best figure in 2 years. Now that is certainly possible, but Rem didn\'t look at that way and neither did I.
Instead, if you use Nite Light and project the number from there, then you have Goldsville going backwards, which is perfectly logical considering the slow early pace and not so special come home time. And if you use that as a variant it puts ESK moving forward only slightly by a little over a point. That\'s the way Rem was looking at it, so that\'s the way I was looking at it as well. But I don\'t make figures for a living and I\'m also not trying to second guess Jerry. I am just passing on what Rem has told me and clarifying my position on this board.
This is why I said in an earlier post that I think Jerry is going to have to wrestle with this figure, and it is a very important figure.
Michael,
Would headwinds and tailwinds have much of an impact on the final times of 6f and 9f races at Aqu? It\'s about the same distance both ways.
Mjellish -
Interesting points about the wind and the pace.
I don\'t think that TGJB has the Nite Light problem you are referring to. On TG\'s figures, both Goldsville and Nite Light were coming into the Excelsior off a last-race 2.5, which was a career top for Goldsville, but 4 points off Nite Light\'s career top (which he ran two years ago as a 4yo). I think Nite Light gets a slightly worse figure than Goldsville for the Excelsior. The extra weight carried by Nite Light offsets his margin of defeat, but Goldsville lost more ground.
I guess this serves to emphasize the point that TGJB has made frequently: if you use the projection method to make figures, the quality of your current figures depends on the quality of your past figures.
Michael D. -
Because drag is a function of airspeed squared, a headwind hurts more than a tailwind helps. For a horse running 40 mph, a 10-mph tailwind decreases his airspeed from 40 mph to 30 mph. A 10-mph headwind increases his airspeed from 40 mph to 50 mph. The difference between 50^2 and 40^2 is greater than the difference between 40^2 and 30^2.
Excellent. Thanks bit.
From past discussions, I thought they were making that difference negligible.
I think this is a better question for Jerry as I am no expert on wind. But I do know this. The wind at AQU is very, very tricky. It comes off the bay, wraps around the buildings and very rarely is it a straight tailwind or headwind uniform across the track. It can acutally be different at one place on the track than on another becaues of the way it wraps around the buildings. So you can\'t say it is always one way or another.
On the Wood day, I think you can safely say that it made for slower 2 turn races.
I thought it varied by the cube of the airspeed...
Leamas
Guys this is 1,000 lb animal running a two turn route at Aqe.
Not Phil Mickelson doing club selection on the 12th at Akmen Corner
Given ESKENDEREYA\'s Wood performance whereby the colt moved forward off an already-fast ThoroGraph line, I suspect the real reason for his late schedule change (allowing him more time into the race) had much to do with injection withdrawal issues. But only his hairdresser knows for sure.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Guys this is 1,000 lb animal running a two turn
> route at Aqe.
>
> Not Phil Mickelson doing club selection on the
> 12th at Akmen Corner
Good one, funny.
I\'ve got Poulter at +3000 and Tiger at +400. Great weekend of racing and golf.
For the record, this was not a tough figure to do-- if I had done anything else it would have been to make it faster. It\'s definitely not slower-- I had the Excelsior not going that fast and still actually made the track a point faster for the Wood.
Those who don\'t use weight have to get the relationship betwen the two races wrong. Don\'t know how Ragozin got it that far off, but what else is new.
Well, I guess that\'s why we leave the figures to the people who make them. Thanks Jerry for your thoughts on the fig.
So, now I have TG telling me one thing, Rem and Beyer telling me another, and Rag\'s telling me something completely different. As far as sheets go, the people using TG data are going to have a much different take on ESK than the people using Rag\'s. Should make for some interesting thoughts and dialogue.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> guys,
>
> haven\'t been able to follow everything on the
> board for the past few days as I have the family
> in Disney.
>
> Richiebee, the little man is tearing up magic
> kingdom worse than Equestris if that\'s
> possible.
Covel:
I can just imagine the poor lad\'s disappointment when the plane landed in
Florida and not Vegas....
Probably one of the few kids down at Disney who would probably prefer to be at
Keeneland
A very good friend of mine and hall of famer told me esky will not hit the board in the Derby.4 bandages,skipped the Fla Derby,shipped to NY and shipped not to Keeneland but Palm Meadows.????? lots of those.Anybody agree.
Bandages meant nothing. Pletcher had a horse who ran earlier who ran down his heals, so he put bandages on all his runners that day.
It\'s what he doens\'t give ESK that may keep him off the board.
Regardless Pletcher is up against it. Looks like a BIG Bounce on TG. Rags while much slower thought he was at the end of the line on his developement \"going into\" the Wood. They said toss him that day.
And now the Derby is LOADED with early speed which means Esky is gonna have to sit about 5-8 back and 3-4 wide.
Agree 100%. I don\'t think Esky will hit the board and it\'s very likely he will be up the track when the race is over IMO. I LOL at the fawning over this horse after putting away a bunch of stiffs after tracking 49.1/113.2 in the Wood. Besides the horse hasn\'t shown an ounce of tactical speed/quick acceleration. The hole is open only for a second in the derby.
Tips from insiders are a dangerous thing; in the investment game, they\'re deadly. Sometimes you get the tip and most of the time you get the whole thing.
I agree that the trip will change a lot for Esky, though the bigger question is whether he bounces. I say this because any horse that goes right to the front won\'t last to win anyway; Smarty Jones and Hard Spun aren\'t in this year. So his real competitors will have the same dilemma: traffic and wider trip. He seems to be able to maintain a high cruising speed and 10 furlongs shouldn\'t matter.
So he runs from 8 or 10 lengths back and even some wide. Who else can match him under the same circumstances? He didn\'t hit the horse in the Wood. I am not 100% sold yet, but I think he has one more race in him and when you look for a better horse, you come up with issues: SC= syn-to-dirt and need the lead? Endorsement=no foundation or experience? The list goes on...
Leamas
He didn\'t hit the horse because he didn\'t have to. He was out near the front in 1:13 in change and just walked away from the stiffs he was racing. One of the slowest paced Wood Memorials in history. Lope the first 3/4 mile and kick clear. And I disagree with the notion that Aqueduct was super slow that day, just because the G3 1 1/8 came home with slow fractions too.
I keep hearing how yesterdays preps hurt LAL for some reason because X horse that LAL beat got beaten by X horse... Well who in the hell did Eskendereya beat? Jackson Bend, Aikenite? Awesome Act who threw a shoe at the gate and got caught wide both turns? I know one thing... he didn\'t beat LAL in the BC Juvy when Esky got into trouble behind a wall of horses and didn\'t have the tactical speed to stay out of trouble.
He has one more race in him? I\'m still waiting for the 1st impressive race. The race Where he overcomes some adversity to win. He\'s had 1 real test and he failed it in November.
In my eyes Eskendereya will be the least impressive 2-1 shot in the Derby field over the past decade.
Well, since there haven\'t been that many 2-1 shots in the last decade how much can that count for?
The only way you can\'t think of Esk as the heavy favorite is if you discount speed figures altogether. The whole point of figs is so you don\'t have to trust your lying eyes.
He towers over this field in that respect.
Oops, Going back to 2000 there\'s just 3 of those.. I was thinking 5/2 or cheaper.. which brings 2 more into the mix
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus
2001 - Point Given
2003 - Empire Maker (5/2)
2005 - Bellamy Road (5/2)
2008 - Big Brown
IMO Esky has less impressive credentials heading into the Derby than all 5 of those clear favorites.
Bandage question answered correctly.
Passing on FLA Derby was per Zayat,
Pletcher was ok to run there.
Zayat may have been buying time for potential sale, also didn\'t like 6 weeks into Derby (5 weeks has worked fine as of late, previously thought to be too long).
Training in FLA is no problem, same route taken by Dutrow and Big Brown.
The trip may beat him but how many best of generation horses get beat by a bad trip in the derby? A bounce may beat him but it would have to be a really big one and it could happen. His pattern has similarities to Big Brown who did run a new top off a big negative fig in 2008. As for the rest, most horses don\'t hit new tops in KD (well documented) so where does the competition come from? Everyone is trying to make the case against but no one is making a case for anyone else yet.
My friend\'s point was that all theses things take their toll and believe me he knows.
I love to bet against favorites. I \"invent\" as many imaginary chinks as anybody. I am probably one of the only people that bet against Rachel and Zenyatta in every one of their races last year.
But, some of the \"chinks\" being thrown at Eskendereya on this board in the last week are funny and somewhat \"unbecoming\" for a board that is about speed figures.
1. He skipped the Florida Derby for the Wood because a sale was in the works and they didn\'t want to race him in the event it was consumated.
2. He wore fronts because one of Pletcher\'s horses \"ran down\" at Aqueduct in the days leading up to the Wood.
3. Pletcher wants to train him in Florida instead of NY until he ships because he doesn\'t like the NY surface right now.
4. The horse towers over the field on any reputable figures. He has a \"double figure\" edge in that his last two races are both faster than anything anybody else has run ever.
5. He is bred to run all day. The 1 1/4 is not going to get him beat.
6. To point to the November Pro-Ride race as \"the only race he faced competition\" and use that as the litmus test for the horse\'s quality is just silly. Pro-Ride is another surface, and he got an unbelievable bad trip that day, stopped several times.
7. Yes, the pace will be faster in the Derby. But NO, that doesn\'t mean the wide trip that people on this board keep pointing to. Actually, it usually means the opposite. The miserable wide trips in the Derby are usually caused by slow paces where the field bunches up. This Derby figures to have a very quick pace, which will string out the field and allow stalkers and closers to have more lanes to run through. (Real Quiet and Fusaichi Pegasus\'s trips come to mind).
8. This horse appears to have a fine rating gear. He has rated kindly off of 46, 48 and 49 in his last three. No reason to believe he will have trouble rating off a fast pace in the Derby.
9. THis last point is almost the most important in this handicapper\'s mind. There has been NOBODY stepping up as a viable alternative to this horse. Name a quality horse moving in the right direction? This reminds me a lot of the Big Brown year where there was basically nobody to bet against Big Brown. Other years there are multiple quality horses coming into their own around the Derby. Not this year. Sydney\'s Candy is the only other horse I can think of but the race by Line of David and his now running in the Derby just puts too damn much speed into the race for me to consider him.
If this horse trains well into the Derby, he will be a deserving favorite, in the 2-1 range, and will be the most likely winner.
It\'s often presented as an either/or situation that if you don\'t like Esky at 2/1 or 5/2, then make a case for someone else. Well, if you\'re not strong on someone else, either, then you pass the race, which is a viable third option. For a number of reasons, including history, I\'m not sold on Esky at 5/2 or less, but, that doesn\'t mean I will find someone else. If I do, it will be relative to his odds, which is a complete unknown right now. Isn\'t it ultimately about value?
Passing the Derby is a third option but it\'s a poor one IMO. There is always value in the 20-horse Derby. The one race in a year where you get more public, non-horse player money than any other race. It might be a 40-1 who only has a 5% chance of winning, but that\'s your play.
There isn\'t a person here who had the winner last year yet I\'ve seen the word \"lock\" thrown around with Esky about half a dozen times in the past week.
There is value in nearly every race. Whether you feel confident that you have found it is the key, for me. If you are assured, already, that you will find the right value in this year\'s Derby, you have my admiration. For me, however, the existence of a betting opportunity is only one piece of the puzzle. My personal ROI over the years in the Derby strongly supports the wisdom of \"the pass,\" if I can\'t find a confident value play. Good luck in finding yours.
I\'ve seen some 4-horse fields at Laurel and Aqueduct that failed to produce any value. ;)
Couldn\'t agree with you more. There is ample value to be found in the Derby. I think we also agree upon that. The issue is confidently finding it in a twenty-horse field, where history suggests that many of the normal predictive indicators in the thoroughbred game can be illusory on the first Saturday in May. It is a fun race to analyze, perhaps more so than any race of the year. I don\'t think, however, that field size should be the determining factor in prompting one to reach for his or her wallet. Value is not directly proportional to field size. It is a function of odds, and one\'s assessment of probabilities independent of those odds. If you find that in this year\'s Derby, by all means, jump in with both feet. I hope I do, too.
Moosepalm,
There is no such thing IMO as a \"confident\" play in a 20 horse field. There is jus too much that can happen.
However, there is no doubt that the Derby, Preakness and Belmont are three of the most bettable races of the year if for the only reason the amount of \"non-sharp\" money in the pools. Yes, I know that some years the \"non-sharp\" money can win, like Mine that Bird (an unbelievable underlay at 50-1), but most of us will take our chances. How many times are hopeless horses in the Preakness and Belmont 15 and 20 to 1, instead of 80-1?
To steal a poker term, I think the best to hope for is to \"confidently\" get your money in with the best hand and hope for the best. (best hand, being \"best value\").
Jimbo, I agree with you about the money which skews the odds in \"our\" favor. That\'s an edge, and that\'s one issue in value. Another issue is the challenge of betting the race. Each of us has his or her strengths or weaknesses. I think, in a general sense, that is predicated on finding patterns for which we have been most successful. That is another side of the coin in finding value. For me, I tend to find value in a comfort zone of determinants, based on a larger sampling of similar variables. I find very few of those similar variables in the Triple Crown races. Now, that\'s me. Then again, it\'s my money. So, while I absolutely agree with you about the funny money which improves the margins for the knowledgeable player, it still comes down to how much knowledge you have about the particular race, or kind of race, in the first place.
Yes, it may be a tough race to beat, but the one payoff makes up for a lot of ripped tickets. I have missed the super by inches and continue to play it. It seems to be the kind of day where you have an edge despite the takeout--especially if you are following all the preps. My secretary made an exacta bet using Bluegrass Cat in one of the TC races because she liked horses with \"cat\" in their names. The one time I forgot to make her bet, and...you guessed it! I had to take my lumps on the Derby and pay her a couple hundred on Monday!
Leamas
Jimbo, with apologies to Richiebee for the possible violation of his maxim about not responding to your own post, I wanted to refine something I said above which would have suggested that all Triple Crown races are created equal. Clearly, that is not the case. I have found the analytical variables going into the Belmont are quite different than the Kentucky Derby, both in terms of historical and Thorograph patterns. My \"comfort zone\" is much greater. There is still funny money going in there as well, though not so much as in the Derby, except perhaps when there is a Triple Crown possibility on the line. Then, it\'s Katie bar the door.
I\'m wondering what Sarah Silverman could do with the title of this string...
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m wondering what Sarah Silverman could do with
> the title of this string...
I haven\'t stopped laughing.
> 2. He wore fronts because one of Pletcher\'s
> horses \"ran down\" at Aqueduct in the days leading
> up to the Wood.
How about this, in addition to the front wraps?
http://i103.photobucket.com/albums/m147/Xctrygirl/DSC_4989.jpg
Clipped up to above both knees? Ultrasounded? Injections? Neither of which are done as part of a normal pre-purchase exam.
\"> 2. He wore fronts because one of Pletcher\'s
> horses \"ran down\" at Aqueduct in the days leading
> up to the Wood.
\"How about this, in addition to the front wraps?\"
[i103.photobucket.com]
\"Clipped up to above both knees? Ultrasounded? Injections? Neither of which are done as part of a normal pre-purchase exam\".
Guys,
....and how about this, 10 minutes later, he won by a pole!