Lets look upon our situation here boys..
Lookin at Lucky - no excuses but we know they werent trying THAT hard to win.. dont be fooled he is gooooooood and the derby is a brand new race
Eske - looks like an afleet alex kinda horse to me. He and nobles promise have similar styles.. Pletcher has the juice goin.. looks great
American Lion - Ran a top effort here and could be the dark horse of the derby loooooooooookout.. ran fast as a 2 year old and has shown a history of unreliability at the same time... trickyyyyy
Setsuko - has come a long way and well should be primed to run very good... dirt first time though on derby day.. who knows and big question mark!
Rule - should run a top not good enough to win the derby
Sidneys Candy - BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE
Yawanna - expected this one to come from further back this weekend but ran a great race for what it was.. will be closing derby day and could get a piece.. clearly wont win.
Ice box - the modern day flower alley.. will get 6 weeks off or so to derby day.. will probably run a top effort thats moset likely not good enough to win but may get a piece with a decent trip.
Jackson bend - proven to be 2nd best at nothing more.. with so many others forging or faster this one gets to be an underlay
nobles promise - will win easy next week against no one and.. we will have to see from that point what happens. great nunber power AND to all the skeptics this is the 2nd fastest horse last year as a 2yo (if im not mistaken)
Endorement - no
mission impaziable - had a perfect trip and nothing else to say.. wont happen derby so why bother?
a little warm - havent seen the last figures but should run great next out.. dunno if he will run derby but looked very impressive to me.
Wheres Interactif who ran great against Sidney?
D\' Funny bone - my underlay of the year who would probably crush all of these horses.. no k derby for him BUT preakness value!
BLind Luck - should run the derby.. would probably have the best shot saving ground and spliting horses late! i should text Jerry Hollendorfer =)
Schoolyard - no way
discreetly mine - yea ok
Super Saver - where is he? has some major potential! maybe bluegrass? damn pletcher
Odysseus - bounce regress toss whatever
and other news:
while the derby prep mania continues Zenyatta just worked out Friday in 113:40 and Rachel worked in 103.20... Zardana goes 49:60 at polywood park. and quality road gets a workout at 38.80 at PMM. Moon Town is still on vacation.
just my opinion and any other horse im forgetting or whatever add em on here... lets analyze this together seems like we are all right there!
So Rule , Syndney\'s candy and American Lion head out to the front..Esky stalks, takes over on the far turn under wraps, and starts to open up..His stamina is going to make most of these horses look very bad..Looking at lucky seems to be the other stamina horse but he always seems to get into trouble..Awesome act lost a shoe at the start of the Wood so he might be a sneaky play at good odds..
Esky isn\'t quick enough to work out the same trip as in the FOY or Wood.
Twenty horse field with an honest to fast pace and he isn\'t going to be sitting 2nd,3rd or 4th out in the clear.He\'ll need to show some versatility.
He ran big six weeks/six weeks.Now a shorter turnaround.Fastest horse going in(pending Ark race)with the most stamina but he\'s no cinch here in a big field.
Still a lot of questions to be answered but.....
Esky-perfect running style and can run all day. Probably won\'t run a new top but does he have to?
Mission Impazible- Good stalking style similar to Esky. 5 weeks off and ready for a good race.
Endorsement-Same as above and you can throw in 2nd time against Stakes competition...oh and will be a BIG price.
Noble\'s Promise-I\'ve bet him 3x. Hit with him at KEE and he let me down in the BC and Rebel with no excuses. Still questioning distance.
LAL-He\'s a good horse and has a lot of heart. Must use on some tix and toss on others.
Pace
Trying for the early lead will be Conveyance, Sidney\'s Candy, Rule, Discreetly Mine, and Super Saver. Throw Tempted To Tapit in there if he somehow makes the field. PP will play a MAJOR factor in who gets the lead. I\'ll use the horse with the best PP in my underneath slots. The chances for any of these horses to run a new top on May 1st while beating each other up for the lead is minimal regardless of pattern. In 2009, Regal Ransom and Join in The Dance from PPs 10 and 9 faded around the 8th pole after running together pretty much the whole way.
Odysseus-Need to see more
D\'Funnybone-Not running
A Little Warm-nah
Ice Box-Wants no part of 10F IMO and I predict a bounce even with 6 weeks.
Schoolyard Dreams-No thanks
Make Music For Mee-Running in the BG means 3 weeks off. Use on some, off on most tix.
Jackson Bend-He has run A LOT of races for a young horse, but he always seems to be on the board. Tough call.
Interesting Possibilities
Interactif
Aikenite
Dublin
Setsuko
***All subject to change of course based on workouts and more importantly PP draw.***
Absent a cascade of defections, it\'s hard for me to imagine that the graded earnings cutoff will be less than $200K. That would leave Yawanna Twist, Setsuko, and Schoolyard Dreams on the sidelines. Super Saver will need to pick up some earnings in the Arkansas Derby, as will Odysseus in the Blue Grass.
I don\'t remember if I heard it during the race or where, but didn\'t I hear that EightFiveInAFifty might still run in May? Probably wouldn\'t win, but he has that smooth speed. Ran almost same time as group of the Carter and ran the first sixteenth with his head cranked sideways toward the infield.
Leamas
Some good points here. I dunno about comparing ESK to Afleet Alex though. As I recall AA was a pretty agile horse with a nice turn of foot. ESK seems more like a powerful cruiser to me. He can obviously run all day. His gallop out in the wood was even more impressive to me than the race itself. I still worry about him getting stuck behind a wall of horses, or going 4w 5w to stay in the clear. In a 20 horse field there is going to be a lot of ground loss overall.
I\'m also not sure I would dismiss Endorsement so easily. That was a deceptively good race he ran last out with a quick final eighth in 12 and change. He just may have what it takes to make some noise.
ARK derby will be interesting race. Curious to see how Noble\'s Promise finishes his last 3/8ths.
Horses I am most confused about are Caracortado and Homeboykris. Cara has the type of style to hit the board in the derby but he has more of a sprinter\'s pedigree. Homeboy was pretty fast at 2 and is training up to the race with a forward looking sheet. I hate to waste my money on including them, but...
For me, my derby play is probably going to come down to watching how a few of these guys work at CD.
Big Brown went off at 5/2, so I would think ESK goes off at 3-1 or so depending upon post as long as Lucky makes the race.
Jellish you are one of the more intelligent guys here but...Big Brown was in the 20 hole and had a foot but....As you pointed out there were no LAL\'s or even Sydneys Candy that year. The Big Brown crop was aweful.
As someone else pointed out Pletcher is an 0-26 guy in the Derby. But as someone super important told someone important who told us before and confirmed after the FOY. \"Pletcher may finally have THE HORSE\"
And as John Servis will tell you sometimes that is where it all starts and usually ends.
He\'s another with an earnings problem. #30 on DRF\'s list.
Fans of the \"over rated,lack of quick, LAL\" couldn\'t have asked for a better final prep. PERFECT!!!! The obvious final prep was the herculean Rebel over OP red dirt earning not only a figure that puts him on the board in the Derby but some of that good old fashioned jostling and heel clipping surely to be encountered in the Derby. I don\'t think GoGo even really tried in the Reb until the final 1/16th when he realized \"Jeez - I just might get there.\"
Once Baffy holds court and smokes LAL in the AM at CD, the buzz will begin. You know he will be a dappled picture of health with bullets in tow the week before the KD.
If Esky didn\'t hurt himself these last two and gets to the gate feeling frisky, me thinks we have a classic East v West Triple Crown rivalry going here. Did Easky really run a new top yesterday beating NOBODY or is that just Miff\'s guess? Show me the data.
The last time someone was as loaded as Pletcher with a can\'t miss monster coming in was \'05 - Zito/Bellamy Rd. With 4 other solid contenders I don\'t think he hit the board in any TC race that year.
I personally think Pletch is wayyyy too uptight to win a Derby. Whether it\'s bad karma, the drug testing or that hair helmet of his - something of a giant dark cloud always follows that dude the First Saturday in May. Throw in the fact that Beyer will curse Esky, along with little Stevie Christ and you have all the makings of a giant let down for Esky\'s minions May 1.
In the end I can easily see a race that falls apart at the 1/8th pole with the slow Cali poly rats or the Zito closer IB galloping by to suck the air out of the joint.
I love the other threads started this weekend asking for the exacta horses under Esky some 29 days days before \"Old Kentucky Home\" rings the air. Gotta love horseplayers!
Buck,
LAL needs a perfect trip to win the derby. Does not have enough early tactical speed to overcome a bad draw/trip and only has an ordinary turn of foot.Might be the most determined 3yr old I have seen this year but his pure talent is not in same area code with Esky as far as what talent they\'ve shown to date.
Escy ran his best race ever yesterday and I\'m fairly certain TG/RAGS/BEYER will give him a top.
I agree that Escy beat nobody but he\'s beating them by a pole and no other 3yr old is winning off.
Good Luck,
Mike
Big considerations for the form cycle of a developing 3 year colt in his sophomore year after a long break from his two year season..... Big Race, followed by a sub-par race, then followed by the dreaded \"BOUNCE!!\"
This was the form cycle of Hansel who lost the Kentucky Derby to Strike the Gold but came back from his bounce race in the Derby to win both the Preakness and the Belmont.
As for the West Coast favorite, Sidney\'s Candy; his running style of sustained early might be compromise in the Kentucky Derby with a projected \"faster early pace ( early projected pace might be 46 and change followed by a 1:10 and change second pace call led by Conveyance and others).....Sidney\'s Candy will be one of the favorites along with Big Esk....and deservedly so as his sustained last fraction from the Santa Anita Derby is one of the top three performances thus far in all of the Derby preps so far with less than one month to go...
One of the main contenders who might be picking up the pieces after the fast early pace of the Derby will be Ice Box....Big questions are the traffic problems he might encounter from being so far pack in the pack and mainly,will he get up in time by the top of the stretch at Churchill Downs....
Looking at Lucky may have had a horrendous trip in the Santa Anita Derby but his Rebel race still ranks with Sidney\'s Candy\'s sustained last fraction. Some have made some observations that LAL looks smallish and not as muscular as Big Esk, but wasn\'t the great Northern Dancer, diminutive...Now I am not putting LAL in the same breath as Northern Dancer, I was just making a comment...
Now, there is one other colt who has my attention, but I get the sense that in his next prep race, the trainer will be instructing the jockey to be closer to the early pace than normal to get some important conditioning towards the bigger prize, three weeks later....jmho
The horse who might have had the worst luck of all was Caracortado, whose rider, Paul Atkinson, had to slam on the brakes on the far turn while following Lookin At Lucky. Caracortado rallied strongly to finish fourth in a deceptively good effort, but now may not have enough graded stakes earnings to make the Derby.
\"I thought Garrett\'s horse was going to fall, and I was right behind him,\" Atkinson said.
Santa Anita | Posted 4/4/2010, 4:31 pm
Sidney\'s Candy wins a rough derby
By Jay Privman
The bumps,the brakes
The jockeys mistakes
No kentucky in May
No derby stakes
Cant get the distance
mon he\'s cali bred
tote board shows no resistance
is he in over his head
Six weeks rest
forty two nights aside
he\'s regrouped and replenished
coming east for the second prize
Blessed efforts in disguise
Oh the punters dream
This is one cappers flier
He\'ll have duckpintown steam
NYC,
1. Don\'t see the Afleet Alex - Eskendereya comparison at all. Afleet Alex was more established as a 2 year old, had a late start at 3, had to run in a 6 furlong sprint for his last prep, ran a negative 2, and then all Triple Crown trail, the \"experts\" were waiting for him to implode because of the grueling campaign after the late start (I was on the anti-Afleet Alex bandwagon, but I think our host here headed it, as I recall). Eskendereya has had a perfect 3 year old campaign, 3 races, progressively better and well spaced into the Derby. A deserving favorite, with no real knock, except bounce enthusiasts may be skeptical if his figure yesterday comes back too strong.
2. Unless there have been a whole bunch of scratches, the \"Nobles Promise will win easily next week against nobody\" comment makes no sense. Last I heard, Dublin,Super Saver and Odysseus were all targeting that race. I expect the next most logical winner of the Derby besides Eskendereya, to come out of the Arkansas derby. My bet is on Dublin, but despite the pedigree and somewhat weak gallup-outs, Noble\'s Promise has done nothing wrong. He got the worse trip BOTH times when beat by Lookin at Lucky. (yes, that capital T in LAL\'s TG line last race was over-rated. Noble put the speed away, then put Dublin away, then got challenged by LAL late and just missed. IMHO a worse trip then LAL got.
3. I am also inclined to try and beat Sydney\'s Candy in the Derby, but it won\'t be because of bounce. It also won\'t be with confidence that I throw this horse out. The sire\'s numbers are better on synthetics, but this horse has brilliant speed. The sprint race 3 back seemed to be loaded with early speed, but he sprinted clear in a few strides. Two back, he won fairly easy, first time going long, with a perfect trip Interactif the only real challenger. Interactif is a fairly fast horse at his best, so I wont hold that against him. Yesterday, Sydney\'s Candy stumbled at the start and then dusted that field. Anybody that actually believes that the trip cost LAL the race has been smoking some pretty good stuff. Sydney\'s Candy was extremely impressive, by any objective standard. For those that believe it matters, he also galloped out well. My guess is that race dynamics in the Derby cost him, with a bunch of other very quick horses seeming destined for the starting gate. But if there isn\'t a ton of quality speed and this guy gets a decent inside post, watch out.
4. I wish I could make no other bets on Derby day besides booking the Lookin at Lucky money, assuming he goes off in single digit odds. No early speed, no acceleration, but some \"heart\". Sounds like a 4th place finish at best for this grinder.
5. Message/request to TGJB. Your numbers for Sydney\'s Candy\'s last race looked bad to me BEFORE yesterday,after watching American Lion and Sydney\'s Candy run, they look extremely bad. How comfortable are you with your figures for that race?
I meant Big Brown! oooops.. And as far as next weekend..I didnt even consider those horses so that was a mistake big time. Looks like there is going to be a boat load of speed this year with Rule, American Lion and Sydneys Candy plus others.. they will be blazing the way. There will also horses going from synth to dirt for the first time. So many angles and im closing this derby talk for the most part til we see the post positions and entries... soooo much to consume and consider this year.. the angles seem endless especially when u have horses like ice box with 6 weeks off and pletcher with a loaded stable who is 0 for whatever.. goin to be a redic race! cant wait!
Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I love the other threads started this weekend
> asking for the exacta horses under Esky some 29
> days days before \"Old Kentucky Home\" rings the
> air. Gotta love horseplayers!
You would have REALLY loved the following from my March 20 post:
Re: Ok lets run down the Florida Derby! (210 Views)
Posted by: SonicDonn (IP Logged)
Date: March 20, 2010 09:45AM
As far as the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown.
Eskendereya will win the Derby unless something bad (injury, illness) happens to him and has a very good chance to win the Triple Crown.
What odds can I get right now on Eskendereya to win the Triple Crown?
Mike
It sounds like you are describing Mine That Bird.
I\'m pretty sure ESK would have beaten him too, except that nobody did.
I know that you know that the Derby is a complex race/situation and that it is far too early to know where we will stand after they draw pp\'s, until we see track conditions, watch them train, etc.
In other words, it\'s a bit too early to make the pick...unless ESK is a superhorse....but of course this board appoints a new super horse about once a month.
Last month it was Quality Road...the month before it was Zenyatta (after 2 years of trashing her)...before that Rachel...before that ????? I can\'t remember anymore.
Al,
Do not think Escy is a super horse but the best 3yr old right now, by quite a bit, tomorrow he may not be. You that story well, I\'m sure.Even the neg -1-2 that he will likely get does not do justice to his edge over this group, right now.
Mike
Man il tell you what.. whatever pletcher has been given to quality road hes def giving the same to Eske.. this could be a negative 3 at the wood this past weekend. No idea how he will do next out with just 4 weeks off but he looks like tons AND i reeeeeally think big money will be on this horse and he will be something like 6/5! Why else wouldnt a horse winning by those margins the last few races not go off such a huge fave?
Big Brown off a -3 1/2 was 2.4 - 1 out of post 20.Swetnorthernsaint off a -1.5 was a 5.5 - 1 fav. Belamy Road off a -5 was 2.6 - 1. Smarty Jones had run a -3.75 and was a 4.1 fav.
With 20 horse fields and large pools it isn\'t reasonable to expect that short a price.
Bob
Your Kentucky Derby winner:
Endorsement
Enjoying every single stretch in distance including in the Sunland Derby where he stalked and buried Conveyance while going away. Missed the track record by 1/5th of a second and he was going extremely strong past the wire. 111.4 1/2 mile, final furlong ran in 12.4. Can\'t find another horse in this field who ran 1 1/8 race in sub 1:12 half and came home in under 13.
Lightly raced and developing nicely. I\'m very high on his chances to go forward at 1 1/14 on May 1st. Distorted Humor/Ap Indy bred. Seems to rate gorgeously.
Other bombers who I consider, but both need earnings to get in:
Pleasant Prince - Lots of dam side endurance. Was impressed with his Fla Derby race. Lots of tactical speed here. Has some top-end speed. Has some cruise speed. Very versatile.
Super Saver - My favorite Pletcher horse. The one with the brightest future at classic distances IMO. I predict a monster performance in the Arkansas Derby, which may hurt his Derby chances though.
111.4 for 1/2 mile?
Final furlong in 12.4?
Sub 1:12 half?
Better check your math ....
Endorsement ran a nice race.If the charts are correct:
24.11/24.23/23.67/23.87 final 1/8th 12.58
Eskendereya:
Wood 24.72/24.79/24.13/24.09 final 1/8th 12.24
FOY 24.12/24.00/24.29/24.13 final 1/8th 12.33
Problem for both these colts in a 20 horse field is getting completely different trips than they\'ve seen in their preps.Are they versatile enough to adapt to traffic-shuffling or extreme wide? Neither figures anywhere close to stalking in 2nd or 3rd out in the clear unless a lot of the quicker early horses don\'t make the race.
Gotta see the actual field but there should be solid pace not these 48 and 49 half\'s.If they go 23 and change 46 and change it brings horses like Ice Box into the mix who should be 1w into the first turn.He got his final 3/8ths in 36.89 at GP and a final 1/8th 12.60(?) not changing leads.Slower going in off a jumpup race but he has six weeks and he\'s never gone back.He could move up again and his post isn\'t gonna matter.
Oops Sub 1:12 3/4.. You know what I mean
What impressed me most is that Endorsement was a fly-in to Sunland.. He wasn\'t there very long, he had no workouts in that altitude. This horse has a nice set of lungs to handle the chore the way he did that day.
Sunland regulars that do well will tell you they throw out any shipper running first-time there.
The FOY chart has Esky in front at 6F in 1:12.41
That\'s correct -his first three quarters:
24.12
24.00
24.29
Sekrah, I endorse your endorsement of Endorsement--not necessarily as calling him the winner, but one of few that I will use to upset these usual suspects like Esky, SC, etc. I have had that sense since the day I saw him win. I rememember hitting the Preakness with Bernardino as a lightly-raced colt who made one more move on the big day.
He won\'t have the experience of some of these, but he seems to have all the tools and might make one more move forward.
Leamas.