1-Posse Power: I\'m fond of this little, hard trying colt. He\'ll be huge odds today and may well sneak into the exotics - I believe he will run a new top today.
2-Thomas Baines: Has rally come to hand in recent weeks and has never looked better; that being said, he loses Bejarano, and is hoping for a minor placing coming off his big move forward in last - maybe he pairs up and hits the board?
3-Who\'s Up: Not sure what\'s coming off the long layoff - seems like a tough spot to debut; did show promise as a 2 year old. Not really my type of play though.
4-Sidney\'s Candy: Nice colt to be sure, and his speed will be a huge advantage in this race, and I can almost guarantee he will break through and run a new top today. He\'s still maturing and seems very promising. Can he beat the big horse in here though?
5-Setsuko: Can certainly run all day, and Bejarano chose him, no big surprise there. He is a bit one-paced though. A tricky read on the sheets;, he should move forward for sure, but his lack of speed may compromise his chances here, and even if he does move forward, it may not be enough. A tough read for me.
6-Caracortado: The little Cal-Bred that could. He\'s probably done maturing for now, and I don\'t see him as a threat in here; hopefully, they won\'t be stupid enough to run in the triple crown races (where he has zero shot) and ruin him completely when there are a lot of good money Cal-Bred races down the line. Hopefully.
7-Lookin At Lucky: Not much else to say. He\'ll be 1-5 in here, so not sure you can make any money. I guess you could argue he doesn\'t need to win this, but I have a hard time imagining a scenario in which he doesn\'t win. He\'s the class of his generation, and the Derby/Triple crown goes through him in my opinion. Should be a fairly easy prep for him, and hopefully he explodes forward in the Yum Brands Derby.
8-Cardiff Giant: has often fooled me and run better than my expectations. I just don\'t see him as a serious threat in here.
9-Skipshot: Been getting better and better since Hollendofer took over; game sort does try very hard. Has he reached the summit of his abilities for now? Probably. If he paired up could he get in the money? Maybe.
10-Alphie\'s Bet: He\'d be a big bet against for me. Bad post and he\'ll have to pass them all in a race that doesn\'t usually favor closers, even on synthetic. I couldn\'t see him as a serious threat in this race.
Not sure if you can make any money in this race. maybe consider betting Lucky over Sidney\'s candy and use a few behind and hammer the supers, which usually pay well in this kind of a race. I would consider Posse Power underneath at huge odds. Good race to watch anyway. Good luck friends.
Well, I was sure right about Sidney\'s new top, but I wouldn\'t use the excuse of Lucky\'s trouble either; he wasn\'t beating Sidney either way, and I didn\'t really like the way he looked in the PP - he seemed a little stiff and a bit skinny, like he isn\'t really thriving like he had looked in his earlier races. I guess we\'ll see how he comes up to the Derby, and I wouldn\'t jump off him yet, though one has to say Esky looked rather imposing in the Wood. Yeah, it was a weak field (but was it weaker than this field, probably not) but you have to like the way he won - he now moves to the top of the class in my book - like he\'s suddenly bloomed at the right time. In any event the price will be much higher on Lucky if you still like him - I\'d say around 10-1 or higher on Derby Day.
Great call on SC Dana. 10-1 on LAL would be nice, but man, this horse seems to always find trouble. I\'m sure he\'ll find more in a 20 horse field.
There is the Baffert Premium and the excuse of trouble. You will not get 10-1 of Lucky.
We know he can beat Nobles Promise but what about Sydneys Candy? Maybe they were looking for a rail skimming Real Quiet SA Derby effort today and the trouble derailed them.
Esky went in 149:95 and the Excelsior went in 151:43. This will be in the 108 Beyer range. Any kind of repeat and not on his best day is Lucky gonna run this galloper down.
Forget about Lucky\'s best day, today he didn\'t look as good physically as he had, and that\'s the more troubling aspect. Not winning the prep isn\'t a big deal, but you want a horse who\'s flourishing, and right now Lucky is not in my opinion. Comparing him with Esky today anyway and they\'re not in the same league. Esky looked healthy and happy and all muscled out, and Lucky looked a little drawn and stiff like he\'s on the downside. I said in a way earlier post, the only downside to Lucky was that he matured so early, and someone else could step up and over-take him and now that has happened. And I believe you will get around ten to one in the Derby. One bad performance and everybody jumps off, Baffert or no Baffert.
Looked like Esky was hand-ridden all the way around.
The horse that ran second in the SA derby looks interesting to pick up the pieces at the bottom of the super in the Derby.
Shame the over rated,lack of quick, LAL got stopped on the fence yesterday in the SA derby.Had no shot of beating SC but a clean run to the wire would have made him a much shorter price in the derby.Pace scenario in the derby looking on the fast side.
Escy being coronated early and will embarrass this group unless he does not get there right.Can hear the nay sayers already re \"points of development\" and spacing for Escy but he does not lay his body down in his races(yesterday \"ran app 5/16ths of a mile). Escy ran another new top, probably in the TG minus -1-2 area after outrunning tough older horses by app 6 lengths carrying 6 more lbs(one race earlier)
Unless someone shows up big from now until the derby,you\'ll be targeting like a 7-5 shot on May 1st.
Mike
Mike
No way he\'s 7/5, much more like 3/1 with LaL 5/1 and then a big bunch at 10-12/1.
Wrong,
Not a remote chance Escy is 3-1 unless something negative happens along the way.
Mike
Miff:
A 7/5 fave in an overflow field for an 0/26 Derby trainer?
That has got me kind of excited.
Mike
Come on, it will be a full field of 20. Granted Street Sense was the highest at $4.90 but Smarty Jones was $4.10 and Big Brown was $3.40. 3/1 is about right.
People bet on horses and hype and he will be all the rage leading up. Last two wins by daylight and main contender bombed.Not saying he\'s worth that short a price but on credentials,accomplishment he towers over these.
Don\'t follow futures, but if there is another pool, he\'d be app 3-1 in a futures pool no less.What did he close pre Wood in the futures?
Mike
Mike
Granted. But it\'s the Derby with the general public pumping money on D. Wayne Lukas or any gray horse. He\'ll be 5/2 or 3/1.
Wrong,
If he trains up right, 3-1 would be stealing.Good luck
Mike
I\'d be stunned if ESK goes off higher than 2-1.
Given the results of the preps and excluding the possibility that something phenomenal will happen in the next few weeks, the only bet worth considering AT THIS TIME is LAL straight up. He may not do it, but I think it is likely that the horse\'s odds will make it worth taking the shot.
I will trust that Baffert will get the horse into the race at a peak, whatever that is. The SA Derby was not intended to be a peak moment or Baffert wouldn\'t have been so generous and humorous towards Gomez.
I can understand why the trainer would be grousing about the jock\'s ride. That\'s what trainers do. What I don\'t understand is why some on this board are agreeing with Baffert about the ride. Isn\'t saving ground a major component of sheet handicapping theory? All I saw GG do was try to ride the horse to a ground saving trip. He got cut off by another horse and there was a penalty assessed for that. That infraction may or may not have cost LAL the race. That can be debated. But why is the GG ride being criticized? I don\'t get it.
According to one report Gomez said Espinoza yelled \'I told you I was gonna get you\' when he nailed him...which prompted Gomez going after him after the race.
I don\'t know if it\'s true...all I know is that the horse was compromised pretty severely by the incident.
Like a lot of pre-Derby prep outcomes, this one gives us a betting opportunity. Think Unbridled in the Fla Derby. I wouldn\'t have gotten 11-1 in the KY Derby if Unbridled had been cranked down in Florida...that\'s for sure.
Or to look at it another way: would you rather have Secretariat coming out of a lame Wood Memorial or Eskenderya coming out of a dominating performance in the Wood? Think Bellamy Road for the answer to that one.
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...The horse that ran second in the SA derby looks
> interesting to pick up the pieces at the bottom of
> the super in the Derby.
I agree, looked like he could run all day. You have to think that Setsuko might benefit from the extra distance in the Derby. Did you see how nice this horse looked in the PP? Had that beautiful arched neck, and his coat was top notch from what I could see on TV.
I never know how to figure how the way a horse looks in the paddock translates into track performance. It\'s probably talked me out of more winning bets than it has gotten me winners.
Maybe I just don\'t know what to look for.
Hi Al,
Escy will go into the derby;
neg-1-2
0
3 1/2
I think that is very different from say Bellamy Road or others which moved up to 5+ point tops in their derby prep, off poor foundations.You know that horses do not come with off/on switches or instruments to control how fast they run in \"pre derby\" preps.I don\'t believe for one second that LAL was not fully cranked anymore than I believe that ESCY was not fully cranked.I\'m certain that Baffy/TAP did not want their horses to peak before the derby but there is really very little magic they have to accomplish that.
Anyway,I think the LAL fans received a bonus with LAL\'s derby price, while it will hurt those of us who were tossing LAL in the derby.For the record,even with a clean trip on Sat, he had no shot on running down the winner.
LAL fans, are you concerned that LAL was outrun from the 1/8 pole to the wire by a slug,Setsuko, after doing NO RUNNING during the entire race, incident or not?
Good Luck
Mike
Mike
I don\'t view it that way...meaning you thought that a trainer has very little impact on a horse\'s readiness. If I did, I would never hit winners from guys like Nafzger, who rarely wins off a layoff...he usually preps one or two races before laying them down.
We\'ve got a little mare who is coming off a long layoff, she has worked every week and we plan on at least one \'non effort\' race before putting pressure on her. In fact her prep race will be a sprint...really a long workout...whatever that race looks like on paper won\'t be an indication of her ability nor our intentions.
Mind you, I am not saying LAL will win the Derby, but I do not think that Baffert had this horse at a peak for the SA. In any case, he has brought horses to peak efforts for the big dance far better than Pletcher ever has ... and he always will. Check out whether he precedes the KY with a series of 5-furlong works (two fast then one slow.) Let\'s see if he does that again...if so, that indicates to me that the horse\'s best shot is ahead.
Re: your point about Bellamy Road, I know that you are right. BR was no ESK. Still, my point is valid...ESK has beaten the same horses in FLA and NYC by about the same distance in about the same time. Pletcher has had him at his peak for a month...needs to keep him there for another month. He\'ll screw it up.
Alm,
What is LAL\'s peak? The race at Oaklawn with \"all that trouble\"? The race before at Santa Anita, where his entrymate set the pace, allowed him to come inside and pushed Noble\'s Promise 3-wide?
This horse has been over-rated for awhile now. He ran the excellent race in the BC Classic on a big-time \"closer\'s track\". I guess he has a shot to be an \"Impeachment\"-type, where he could close for 3rd or something. But he doesn\'t have the tactical ability or the acceleration of a closer. Baffert going \"over the top\" about the \"terrible ride\" by Gomez was ridiculous. Since when is it \"you can\'t be inside on that track\"? Isn\'t that how the horse beat Noble\'s Promise two back? By riding the inside and saving ground?
Agree with Miff that it is too bad this horse got exposed to a degree this weekend. I was hoping he was going to be the Derby favorite. Just hoping that enough people believe that he could have won if not for Gomez\'s terrible ride on Saturday........
Miff, when you say \"TOSS\" LAL, what do you mean exactly from a constructing a ticket perspective?
I agree (sadly) he got exposed. But, the track on BC day was not a closers track - it was all inside and close up for two days, go back and read the charts and see where the winners were for goodness sake, that race along with the Oaklawn race were his two super efforts, and Jerry got the Oaklawn number correct whereas Rags didn\'t, and he probably bounced in the SA derby, too, but I missed a few key signs, like why didn\'t he race until February? And now only has 2 preps going into the Derby - and that\'s not enough in my opinion. I did say much earlier that he had matured early, and the rest of his class might catch up, and then his advantage would be gone, and I think that has happened. When I said he\'d be 10-1 on Derby day, I meant that would be a fair price, he\'ll likely be much lower. But if you ran well against that bias on BC day you really ran well. I\'m not saying anything about any other day, but get the facts straight there please. As far as Baffert criticizing Go-go\'s ride - it just explains the folly of synthetic tracks -if now, saving ground in a route race is bad, then the whole handicapping of synthetic tracks is upside down. What DVD he was referring to I don\'t know. Lucky would really have to explode on Derby Day and run a new top to be near Esky, and I don;t know where that number is going to come from. I\'ll be watching the workouts closely for more clues. If the Derby were this past weekend, we\'d be taking odds on Esky\'s triple crown price, not his price in the Derby. Can you imagine how pissed a lot of people would be in Pletcher trains the next triple crown winner??? Will be very interesting four weeks coming up.
Dana,
I will tell you what, why don\'t you go back and the read the charts. Here is a link:
http://www.breederscup360.com/archives/2009/2009-breeders-cup-results-and-replays/
There were 7 \"dirt\" races over the two days. Guess how many wire jobs? Zippo.
Yes, the two days BEFORE the Breeders CUp speed played well, but not for the Breeders Cup. LAL was \"with the track\" his race, not against it.
Yes, agreed that LAL\'s BC and Oaklawn races were his best, but he didn\'t get into that much trouble in the Oaklawn race. I like his trip better than Noble\'s Promise any day. He lost a length or so, when slightly checked. NP got rushed to a premature move because of the idiotic ride by Nakatani on Dublin, had to put the speed horse away early, then had to put Dublin away, who is a damn good horse, then had to hold off LAL who sat off the warring horses.
As for TGJB getting the Oaklawn race right, I would agree. But I would bet a lot of money that TGJB likely missed Sydney\'s Candy\'s last race (which American Lion also came out of). He had the horse going back 2 points in that race and almost a non-contender on Saturday (not even factoring in that the horse was moving backwards and sitting on 0-2-x). Now, I guess that SC will look like he is sitting on a 5 point forward move or something like that. Looks like TG has SC\'s last race ~3 point slower than Beyer and Rags.
I didn\'t say wire-to-wire, I said close up, say within a length or two turning for home and most importantly INSIDE! If you were outside, you were dead meat, ESPECIALLY on Saturday. Only the Mare Classic (with an insane face pace early) on Friday and Zenyatta on Saturday were horses who came for far back. I don\'t have the time or energy to go back and validate what I already know. I only mentioned that b/c I have heard people mention that, maybe it was the same guy before???
Just from memory on Saturday, all these races were won by inside horses who were close up turning for home: Dirt Mile, Juvenile, and Sprint - all inside run-ups!
There was an earlier stakes race (first race I think?) that was also won by an inside run-up. Please I can\'t waste time restating the obvious. That\'s why I followed Lucky so closely b/c I thought his BC race was one for the ages, and it really showed me his class.
I checked the charts quickly, and in none of those races I just mentioned was the winner ever more than 2 lengths back at the 3/4 pole; and only Dancing in Silks was off the rail for a 1/4 mile, all others were on the rail most all of the race. What charts are you looking at???
Dana,
Being close up at 3/4 pole is NOT how a track bias is looked at. Not sure I know what you mean but the friday and sat for BC 2009 favored off the pace horses,most of the ones that \"cut it\" were nowhere at the end.Inside or not is not in debate.
Mike
Dana,
There were only 7 dirt races.
Zenyatta came from dead last. (there was no insane pace in this race, it was par)
Life is Sweet came from dead last. (yes, pace was very fast).
They both looped the field.
Man of Iron came from dead last.
Vale of York was mid-pack, on the inside, saving ground. No bias, just saved ground.
Furthest Land tripped out, from a pocket trip, sitting 4th.
Informed Decision was outside, stalking, the entire way.
She Be Wild was in the 2 path most of the race, then down to the inside on the 2nd turn.
Measuring how \"close up\" runners performed by where they were after 3/4 of a mile is something you may want to do, but that is certainly not standard. Pace is measured after the quarter and half.
3 of the 7 races, or 42%, were won by horses in dead last the early part of the race.
That is not an inside speed track.
Buck,
The best tosses(out of the money) you will find in racing are horses that will take lots of money in the exotic pool. Choices are always overweight in the exotic pools, especially very short priced horses.
LAL lost lustre on sat imo,and I am certain he will not take nearly as much money as I thought before saturdays exposure, to quote Jimbo.LAL is a gutsy blue collar type imo but I find difficulty in imagining that he has the raw talent to overcome a less than good trip on May 1.Really, who has LAL ever run away from? His all out margins of victory have been life and death close finishes except for one race.Escy, you point out beat nothing, but BUCK, he\'s trouncing these nothings, no?If the same horse or close to the same horse shows up on May Ist, it\'s just a matter of how far he will win by. I\'ll admit that is a big IF and Escy has to answer the question of resiliency and attendance to faster early splits.
I don\'t get caught up in Baffy or this trainer or that one. Been around horses too long to not know that there is no difference in the top 20+ guys, it\'s all about the horses talent, period.Give me the most talented horse everytime with an average trainer and others can have the best trainer with a less talented horse.
Mike
How about the Ark Derby ...
Tiz the One is out. It\'s looking like a 6 or 7 horse race with 3 main contenders. I have nothing to add on Dublin or NP. Borel gets back on Super Saver though. I have futures action on this guy, in part because I thought Calvin would be up on the big day. This guy is bred to go long, and has the good run over the CD surface. Had little punch last, though he again had trouble changing leads. Might soon have to admit that I\'ve settled on a colt that just won\'t get the distance, but I\'m willing to give him another shot on Saturday.
Keep hearing how Esky\'s beaten nothing, but surely part of this is due the way he\'s beaten them.
We\'ll know a bit more after this next weekend, as Aikenite and Pulsion are running. But leaving these two aside, he\'s beaten the 1-2 finishers in the Florida Derby, a horse in Jackson Bend (twice) who has never finished worse than 2nd in eight starts. He beat everyone\'s flavor of the week in Awesome Act (DRF had him #3 on their Derby Watch list, for Crist\'s sake). People loved SchoolYard Dream\'s pattern - loved it until he got spanked last weekend.
Seem\'s he\'s beaten as much or more than anyone else this year with the possible exception of Sydney\'s Candy.
This is so worthless, but just for the record, you just said 3 of the 7 races were won by horses from dead last, right? One of them being Life is Sweet, who was in a race with an insane rabbit-like pace and the other was Zenyatta, one ofthe greatest horses of all time. Taking those two out, 1 of the 7 races, namely the marathon, a very unusual distance, and he ran up the inside, by the way. Lastly, the \"2 path\" and \"pocket trips\" don\'t sound like they were wide either?!
I\'ve said this many many times, one of the great things about racing is so many people can look at the same race or races, and all come to completely different conclusions (which also can make it profitable). So to each his own. In fact, BC day WAS a strong closers bias, with wide trips paying off - I agree with you. 100%. Lucky should have won easily, esp. from post 13 (even though to my knowledge no horse has ever won from post 13 in a 1 /16 route race in Santa Anita History - as least as far back as I can remember 20+ years. I can\'t remember too many post 13\'s in mile & 1/16 route races anyway,but, seriously, can we talk about something productive. You win. I\'m too exhausted to keep this thread going.
The Ark Derby Michael D? That\'s in 5 days.
We\'ve got guys still going back on forth on a racing day five MONTHS ago.
Silver,
We could go \"back and forth\" on your handicapping of the SA Derby or the pace of the Wood, if you like? I believe you insisted Esky was \"gunning to the lead\" as he sat off two horses who crawled in 49 and change. You also gave a \"free pass\" to LAL on Saturday. Not exactly a huge performance by him, trouble or not.
Michael,
Good luck with Super Saver but the race from Schoolyard Dreams in the wood did nothing to inspire my confidence in any of the Tampa Bay Derby horses. I am hoping the race fills out with a couple other horses so I can get 7-2 on Dublin, but I am not optimistic. Although I give up on guessing odds after I bet Miff that American Lion would go off less than 2-1 this weekend and told him I was HOPING to get 9-5 on Sydney\'s Candy.
Stating that Esky is going to go off at 8-5 is absolute lunacy. 3-1 is 10000x times more likely than 8-5. Only 1 horse in the past 10 years went off at less than 2-1 and that was Point Given at 9-5 in 2001 who had risen to god-like status in the media in a year with absolute NOBODY else.
The 4 others to go below 3-1 were:
Big Brown, 2.4-1,
Bellamy Road, 2.6-1,
Empire Maker, 2.5-1
Fusaichi Pegasus, 2.3-1
Esky\'s resume is strong and I expect him to be the favorite and perhaps in this 5/2 area that other favorites have gotten.. but 8/5? Get serious. His media hype is late-arriving, unlike Point Given who was the talk of the world in the months leading up to 2001.
He\'s a very easy no-bet at any price coming in off that top.