Just purchased my first set of sheets ever. Couldn\'t even wait until tomorrow when I would of gotton the whole seminar for the same price. Derby fever, what can I say.
From a beginners point of view, it looks to me that Funny Cide is most likely to pair up his new top. If the top horses regress a little and Funny Cide doesn\'t get in a speed duel with Indian Express he could win this. At 11 or 12 to 1 it could be the start of a nice ex and tri. Of course I am sure that New York Money will pound the EM-FC ex.
Before looking at the Thorograph sheets my top pick was Ten Most Wanted. Now its Funny Side first and Brancusi second. Of course this is all before post position draw which with this group I think will have a significant effect on the outcome.
Really doubt it...his comeback was an optical illusion...he might pair up, but EM was just toying with him...imagine what EM\'s number could have been if Bailey asked him at the head of the lane...then imagine EM pairing up THAT number in the Derby.
imagine there\'s no countries...
Empire maker should not win, he ran the # he ran and was bearing in down the stretch. Two monster efforts that will no doubt have an affect on race day. I wouldn\'t bet your money on the 3 third monster effort that would be needed at 7/5. I am just hoping he stays in the race. A definite toss to win. We don\'t buy sheets to jump on this type.
Good Luck
horses keep getting faster,the bar is constantly being raised ,EM won the Wood easy and could have run much faster,if he doesn\'t lose in B\'more he will win the triple crown.
Same story , different year. It\'s just not worth it. He is as fast as several others in here. Yes, the bar is raised higher each year and you still have to deal with frankel. But how many early 3yr olds have ever ran three 0\'s in a row.
Precisely the fact that horses are running faster is why, I think, we are less likely to see a triple crown winner. These days, in order to win the Derby, the winner has to run a 0. To win the triple crown, you are asking a young 3yo to run three career efforts in the span of 7 weeks. What we are seeing, more often than not, are 3yos running career ending efforts.
If I were to place the blame anywhere, it would be on the use of steroids. Steroids build muscle mass that enhance a horses strength and enable him or her to run faster. They don\'t, unfortunately do the same for bone or joint strength, the areas where most injuries occur.
The bottom line is, most of these horses that run competitvely on Saturday will be damaged goods by June.
JR, with that being said, we have EM in his third race of a seven week cycle looking for another 0. The guy above is talking triple crown that would be 5 races. This is his Belmont in that 3 race cycle and a toss to win.
I sarcastically responded to another poster\'s prediction of a bounce by saying he\'d go sub zero. Really, I\'m betting against him and his somewhat unorthodox (was he hurt or was he just goofing) last 1/16 in the Wood and his double 0\'s and his recent foot bruise. Honestly, I wouldn\'t be surprised if in the end, he scratched. Heartbraker for Bobby but I don\'t believe he\'d run a sore horse. And this horse has every right to be feeling some pain. Strip away all the hype and you \'re still left with a horse with a pair of 0\'s after a 6 point jump. Your move.
I think that everyone on this tree is right in a way...but this horse may very well be an EPO horse...if this is the case, (this is an honest question, not a challenge) is there a chance that he can move forward through the numbers without any backsliding? At least, until the negative effects of the EPO kick in?
Do you really believe the bar is being raised? Do you really believe that horses are getting faster and faster? If so, why is Secretariat still the fastest at 10 furlongs at CD? Why does the Bid still hold track records at SA? Why do the fastest times ever recorded at AQU still belong to Easy Goer, Riva Ridge and Damascus? Have the surfaces gotten slower?
Frank
Alm, you mean Funny Cide\'s Wood was an optical illusion, but Empire Maker\'s very same Wood was bona fide? How bout this for perspective: E.M.inem just ran faster than Bobby or Jerry wanted him to and has now come down with a foot bruise. The paths wide and the finish didn\'t bother you? Another furlong and E.M.inem finishes on the inner rail of the Inner Dirt. Take you\'re 8-5 and bet with both hands. Heck he might even win, who you gonna put in second Kafwain? lol
Tabi
My point was simply this: FC was not rebreaking in the race, just running on gamely....he appeared to be gaining because EM was slowing....so I don\'t disagree with you, I am just not impressed with what FC did in that race.
If you are right about EM, then we might throw both of them out.
The track was scraped that day for Easy Goer, who by the way was owned by Phipps and it was Phipps who made sure the track was scraped for EG\'s Belmont. In addition, Sunday Silence was not allowed to work out at Belmont, a trend Baffert picked up on and when given the opportunity to ship to Belmont, he trained at CD. And he got nosed twice for the TC. (bottom line, no horse who was not NY based has ever won the Triple crown. Think about it!)
I always though EG was the better horse. He just hated CD (as do his offspring) , got nosed at Pimlico and romped at Belmont. But after years of retrospection, I can\'t forgive Phipps for the unfair advantage he gave his horse. Money talks and you know what walks.
Hey Mo, Whats your excuse for the BC Classic??
Easy Goer off slowly 1/2 length, far back early in the race, beat just 1/2 length while racing with a bad front ankle and still blew by SS just after the wire. It was a great performance and a great race.
Patrick Day!!!
You must have forgotten Durkin\'s Classic call:
\"Sunday Silence surges to the front...EASY GOER with one final accelleration.....AND AT THE WIRE...IT\'s SUNDAY SILENCE BY A desperate neck\"
Race was a classic Goer split run. Easy broke inwardly from the rail (gimme a break i\'m relying on memory) He had to pick his way through traffic and was WELL back on a track you don\'t do well on from far back. (Caveat: Dancing Spree won sprint from the ozone that day when blistering fractions were set. I think some horses died in that race. I know On the Line did later from his injuries. Something happened with a horse named Sam Who too.) Goer ran an unbelievable second or third quarter to get close and then Sunday Silence pulled away. Afterwards Day said \"I was giving Goer a breather\" Easy was running like a top fuel dragster at the end but came up just short. One jump past the wire he was five lengths in front...lol. I think Sunday was dead game but he should have lost that race. He was vulnerable at 10 marks. Prized and Criminal type proved that as well. Even when he won the Derby on a track Goer abhorred Sunday was staggering through the stretch like a drunken President or an Empire Maker in the Wood.
I think other winners that day were Rhythm, Go For Wand and Bayakoa. The latter two hooked up in the distaff in N.Y. the next year. They were head and head down the stretch and on the tote board. Nothing separated them but fate.
Tabi
I really don\'t think EM was late at the end of the Wood,it may have seemed that way because of the lead changes.
Are horses running faster today? Yes and no.
As a fan of the sport for 30+ years, it seems
to me that horses are being bred and trained
to run faster, earlier, and then fade with age.
Can anyone run a 132 mile, and carry weight,
like Dr. Fager? No!! Hell, the handicap division for the last 20 years is a joke. Trainers are insulted if you ask their horses to carry anything over 126 lbs. With all
the rampant drug use, horses just break down.
I\'m with you eddie ,Forego ran and won with 138lbs.you\'ll never see that again.
Your post brought back a memory of the Bayakoa-Go For Wand Distaff.
I was there that day. Lousy seats in the upper grandstand at the head of the stretch. Or so I thought until the disaster.
Bear in mind that GFW had had a tremendous season, hardly ever being headed in her series of races leading up to the BC. She was a dominant filly.
As they ran down the backstretch Bayakoa was tracking her, but not really pressing her, until midway through the turn. I had these Godawful big binoculars that day and I was able to see their pimples. As they came out of the turn,right below me, Bayakoa drew up alongside GFW and I could see GFW\'s eyes turn to the right and freeze in place...I swear it...a second later she was down.
I consider it a tribute to her gameness that she panicked at that point and took a bad step...who wouldn\'t? She was running all out and her came another horse cruising up alongside her with very little apparent effort...it took me back to the Ruffian - Foolish Pleasure match race, which I also attended, and the moment that the filly injured herself....right when Baeza gunned FP up alongside her.
That had to be a panic moment for Ruffian, who until then had never run against any horse with her speed.
I am not saying that she couldn\'t have won,but that it surely messed with her mind and her stride.
Tabi,
I remember Durkin\'s call, complete with East Coast bias. \"Desperate\" neck? Marshall Cassidy\'s \"New York\'s Easy Goer in front\" call. Another sore East Coast loser. SS swerved in the Derby not because he couldn\'t handle the distance but the track was off. EG had the length of the Pimlico stretch to get by and he couldn\'t, despite SS having to check on the turn. P Diddy has been a convenient excuse for years, get over it already. Mo mentioned the track for the Belmont, if he was so great why did he need an unfair advabtage to win? Not to mention that this track with its exceptionally wide turns played into EGs running style. Geez, how many excuses are you people going to come up with. The distance is 1 1/4 mile. Not 1 1/4 mile and lets see the gallop out. Who cares what happened after 1 1/4 miles. SS hit the wire first, period. As far as Prized and Criminal Type, those defeats happened after he had knee surgery and he wasn\'t the same horse. Not to mention those were 2 very nice horses. I\'ve heard this lame crap about SS for years. This was a great horse, as fans of the sport you all should give him his just due instead of finding reasons to diminish his accomplishments. EG was an exceptional horse in his own right and I don\'t want to give the impression that I don\'t respect him. But the score is 3-1 SS.
Post Edited (04-30-03 15:18)
I always wanted a Sunday Silence colt. Not cause I thought he\'d do any good here but because I wanted to name him \"Staggerman\". Don\'t ask me why, it just sounds like a kewl name for a horse. But Sunday not only staggered in the Derby. (He was done. They went 2:05 in the mire by the way) he also staggered so badly in the Swaps he almost fell over...lol. Prized reeled him in and ate him up. He beat one decent horse in the Super Derby that had an off day. Heck Belated Earl finished second in that race. But Sunday did lead on the board 3-1. One of which was goo and the other two were essentially ties. But he was \"desperate\" to win the B.C. Classic. Hey I think I like \"Desperate Staggerman\" even better. How many letters do you get 18? How bout DesperateStagerman?
lol
Tabi
Why don\'t you name him \"scoreboard\"? He had that on all of you EG apologists. Better figures, lack of rest, a trainer who wasn\'t as good as CW, whatever. He beat him 3-1. Isn\'t that the name of the game?? Winning?? Tab, Did you run up to the window and show the teller EGs sheet after another loss, hoping to still get paid?? Now that would be \"desperate\". Its amazing how your disappointment with the results can cloud your opinion, resulting in your ridiculous put downs of this champion. The other 2 were essentially ties. One was in the goo. Do you know how ridiculous you sound?? Its mentioned how EG had a grueling schedule, bad ankle, etc... but you don\'t mention the knee surgery SS had before his 4yo campaign which affected his performance all year. I\'m sure you wouldn\'t want to let the facts ruin your \"kewl\" little story,.
I\'m waiting for your next post which will detail the reasons Alydar is superior to Affirmed, they essentially tied 3 times, and that it was the jockey\'s fault he lost.
Post Edited (04-30-03 19:24)
I asked NYRA steward Manuel Gilman about SS performance in the Derby because he just about put Northern Wolf over the rail. \"Shouldn\'t he have been DQ\'d, Dr.?\"
His reply was \"every race on every day of the year SS gets DQ\'d- except the derby. Nobody gets DQ\'d in the Derby, plain and simple\"
You asked why would Phipps give EG an unfair advantage if he was the best horse. Answer: insurance and greed.
I am not going to beat a dead horse here (or two dead horses). I am over it and am just stating the facts. I did not bet the race. EG was the better of the two. Get over it already and move on.
Alydar was as good as Affirmed on the track. Alydar never changed leads, which is why he always got beat. Alyday was the superior horse in the breeding shed. Get over it already and move on.
You and your cohorts can\'t get over it. Thats why you try and convince each other with these wild arguments.
What does the breeding shed have to do with on track performance? I should have figured you would come up with an excuse for Alydar. No mention of EG vs SS in the shed though.
I talked to Man O War. He said that Upset wouldn\'t have won had it not been for the poor ride MOW received. But shoot, it was basically a tie anyways so MOW still considers himself undefeated.
Just stating the facts?? Until you admit that 3-1 is better than 1-3, your facts don\'t mean much.
Lets just agree to disagree. 2 horses that gave us several great races. You and others like EG, I prefer SS. No hard feelings, I don\'t want to start any crap with anybody (if already started then I\'ll stop).
This topic always gets my blood flowing, and sometimes I don\'t know when to shut up. I\'ll stop the sarcasm, how about some Derby talk??
And I don\'t mean 1989. =)
Post Edited (04-30-03 20:40)
Numbers aside, I don\'t see how anyone who admires either Sunday Silence or Easy Goer could disparage the other. Either one would have been a Triple Crown winner in the absence of the other. The circumstances of their four contests are just more good reasons to hang out in bars.
P-Dub;
Man you are takin this way too seriously.
You obviously cashed 3 of 4 times at fair odds. I, on the other hand bet EG only in the Derby. His odds sucked every time after that so I never did bet him again. You did well. I lost. I got over it.
I bet Dare and Go in the Pacific Classic. I cashed bigtime. Was he a better horse than Cigar? I doubt it.
I never said because Alydar was superior in the breeding that it meant he was better on the race track. What I tried to say was that had been able to change leads, he\'d won more often than he lost.
Mo, just having a discussion with you. Its not about taking anything too seriously. I just don\'t agree with some of the things you have said.
Wagering has nothing to do with this. I don\'t care how you bet, and I made one bet during this series. I was talking about racing and who was better, thats it. This isn\'t a monetary issue.
What does the PC have to do with anything? Comparing SS to DG........ sure.
What does breeding have to do with anything we\'re talking about?
Jerry,
I\'m done. I won\'t waste any more time with this.
Mo,
Let\'s talk about the Derby. Who do you think is this years Sunday Silence??
I don\'t see anything here that even remotely resembles a Sunday Silence. In fact, this is a very uninspiring race to me.
I have not seen the sheets yet so based on what I see in the form (no dual qualifiers and not much early speed in the race)I would give a timid vote to Funny Cide.
Empire Maker is very vulnerable. Peace Rules probably can\'t get 10 furlongs, but I\'d like to see Edgar win it.
Safe trip to all.
Easy Goer was simply outridden in the \'89 Derby...Fast time or slow...As good a rider as P. Day is, he is also notorious for getting beat beat by a nose, head etc...I think he has more seconds than any jockey in Derby history.
I love that Man O\'War comment ,thats good stuff.I recall having EG on top of SS and that Voyager horse about 25 times ,the tri came back about $100 ,I loved EG but don\'t recall betting him at any other time.
War Emblem held his # for 4 races why shouldn\'t EM.Horses aren\'t behaving like they used to ,they run big and keep running big .Will I bet EM,no probably not ,but I have alot of trouble making a case for anyone else,I really feel that this horse has alot more in the tank.You see horses running negative numbers and figure they are knocked out ,but they aren\'t.I will probably just pass ,or try to make a cold exacta,prehaps some tri\'s with EM alone on top,maybe use Brancusi under.As far as the Triple Crown goes ,I really think this horse has a shot if he can win at B\'More,He could be the last colt standing,regress and still win.
People...this one is easy. Goer never got his feet under him in the Derby. He was spinning his wheels the whole way around that track. Play the films of his B.C. Juvenile and Derby and you can see his discomfort with the surface. His dam wouldn\'t lift a foot in the goo. Shug thought Easy was 10 lengths plus superior to his stablemate Awe Inspiring. Easy barely nosed him at Churchill and beat him the 10 lengths plus at Pimlico and Belmont. I think Awe ran at Pimlico not sure now.
The Preakness was Patient Pat\'s fault and Sunday\'s gameness. Its too long a story to tell, besides I\'ve told it before. The Classic was just fate. A great horse overcomes adversity (Azeri in her last) but the problem is adversity is more difficult to overcome when theres another great horse in the field.
Tabi