I don\'t get why everyone\'s dismissing this guy. His best numbers are competitive, (I think) he\'s won more graded stakes than anyone else in here, and-if works are any indication-he\'s in prime form and loves that Churchill dirt.
His last race, while a lifetime best, was only a 2 pt. move and, with as much or more rest than anyone else is getting and 2 strong works that suggest the SA Derby didn\'t knock him out, I gotta think he\'s either going to pair or improve.
I admit I\'m somewhat new to TG sheets, and that\'s the reason why I\'m appealing to all of you to tell me what I\'m missing. Talk to me, people!
I like Buddy Gil. But then I like this whole Derby. Its not that I'm sold on a winner yet its just that I see so many horses that look like they can be extremely competitive. Post position and pace will be a factor but with a little luck I think it could produce boxcar mutuals. I have a challenge for Jerry's readers. Winnow out half the field! Post 10 horses you don't believe will hit the top 4 spots. I think winning that wager may prove harder than selecting the winner of this Derby:
Empire Maker - Who is brave enough to toss him? Who will close their eyes to his negatives and perhaps get Arazied?
Ten Most Wanted - What's an Illinois Derby winner anyway?
Peace Rules - Tell me this one ain't an addict
Askmewhatimtalknbout – A.P.Indy and Roberto blood. Was Santa Anita Derby an off race?
Buddy Gil – Bled in last and won. The little horse that could?
Kafwain – San Vincente was quick. Still recovering but running game while doing so? Breeding says distance limitations. Are you sure?
Brancusi – To me, this horse is just learning to run. That step up from maiden win and the Champagne say a lot.
Funny Cide – Is that a forging pattern? Can he improve off Wood? Why not? Does he have to improve off it?
Indian Express – Has anyone looked closely at this animal?
Scrimshaw – Hate the trainer but I won't let this horse beat me
Sir Cherokee – Another Cherokee Run that can't go long, with an effort out of the clouds. Can a horse really finish like that?
Eye of the Tiger – This one will be in my 10 that can't compete
Offlee Wild – Nicely bred and sharpos are supposedly backing him. At this point he is one of my 10 to toss however. How many Wild Again's have won the Derby anyway?
Outta Here – Intriguing animal. Seems to have run against his pace preference in the 2 million dollar sand race after laying off. Won a 500K race prior to that. Think it was a small Louisana track. Not sure yet. I'll know by Derby time though. I have to wonder about chasing 2 million in Sand money if you're serious about a Derby effort. Is on EVERYBODIES toss list. Not mine, not yet.
Senor Swinger – I think Baffert got overly impressed with Medaglia D' Oro. Think he chased this one with some bad money.
Lone Star Sky – Best race was the Louisiana Derby. Can't see enough, on my list of 10 to toss.
Supah Blitz – Everyone hates him. Beaten 12 by E.M. and 3 by Dynever. Everyone calls him a Florida Bred sprinter. His daddy won the Super Derby over a horse I loved. He also won the Arlington Million. The dam side breeding is very obscure but not insignificant in Florida. The trainer doesn't leave town with a horse without a prayer. Granted he may be doing the anniversary thing for his wife. I think this horse is dying to run somewhere other than Hallandale. I can't toss him.
Ten Cents a Shine – I'll make book that despite the fact that Lukas talked the owners into anteing up for the Derby that this horse finishes LAST.
Evolving Tactics – in the ten that wont hit the top four.
Domestic Dispute – This was never Baffert's top horse. The sale proves it. I wouldn't toss him but for the sale. Now I'm nearly certain he hasn't got what it takes. It would be interesting to see him run well and mar Baffert's reputation for knowing a horse. But I don't think that will happen.
Tabi
Post Edited (04-27-03 10:48)
On paper Empire Maker looks like the best horse. However, the Kentucky Derby is notorious for being won by something other than the best horse for any number of reasons.
Racing luck costs many superior horses a better finish in the Derby due to field size alone. Another factor is the tendency of the CD track maint. crew to mess with the surface on big race days...I know that this is the subject of ongoing debate but I also know that Point Given\'s connections believe that a dramatic change in the racing surface on raceday probably cost him the Triple Crown.
Maybe it did, maybe it didn\'t but to the handicapper it is something to be taken into consideration.
Picking the winner is not necessarily a requirement for making money betting the Derby. The idea is to isolate the value propositions among the parimutuel pools and then to gamble correctly. That is why this race and the Breeders Cup offer so much opportunity.
Next Saturday every track, OTB and racebook in America will be full of people who don\'t know the first thing about horse racing or handicapping...They don\'t even know what the Thorograph Sheets are! And fortunatley for the serious players among us they will be betting with both hands!
Even if EM romps there will likely be high three and possibly even four figure payoffs in various exotic pools...In addition, there are several horses who are simply to slow to be seriously considered contenders to hit the board...I hope they all run!
In last years affair, I didn\'t even bother to try and pick the winner. I simply boxed six (yes six) horses in the exacta. None of them were less than 7-1. When it came back a Baffert-Lukas cold box, I was asking myself why I had felt like I needed to include the other four?
gelding.