Ice Box\'s dam won the Glen Falls going 1 1/2 miles, his second dam is by Alysheba and his third dam was the dam of Spend a Buck.
The 1 1/4 should not be a problem for this guy.
He has 6 weeks to recover from what seemed like a big effort assuming Zito doesn\'t run him again.
He has already improved ALOT from his 2 year old top so another move forward in the Derby is very unlikely and his running style is tough in a 20 horse field so there are certainly some question marks but the pedigree is there to go the extra distance and he ran a big one today for sure.
If you just look at him, he looks like the type that will run all day. I\'m not sure the Florida Derby was a really good field when all is said and done, and Rule, in my opinion, wants no part of anything longer than a mile/maybe a mile 1/16th tops, so you have to take that into consideration. But, hey, Ice Box certainly took a step forward at the right time of year. There will be a very fast pace in the Derby this year, so if the front runners melt down. . .you never know. And Ice Box looks like Man O War compared to Mine that Bird!
This IB guy reminds me of a Giacomo type. He will be rolling late but have traffic trouble. Last to first in just a couple of poles. I wonder what his futures line will be now? Leave it to me to miss a Zito horse in a route. I don\'t know where my head was as this pace setup should have been more evident. Rules ability to stay on despite the pace was still impressive, though, and it makes me wonder what he could do with gentler fractions. He might be able to get 10 panels if they don\'t blaze through the first half, though I will not play him to win in May.
Leamas.
Yea the ones that will be barreling down the stretch when that pace melts down will be Lookin at Lucky and Nobles Promise!
NYC,
Maybe a bit of humility is in order after the Best Actor debacle yesterday instead of definitively telling us that a son of Cuvee will have a big closing kick going 1 1/4? Come on man.
Lookin at Lucky is very very live but let\'s try to keep this at a high level.
Fla Derby winner comes up ok, maybe in the TG 1 range(99 beyer).Rule did most of the running and wore down late, after being under pressure the entire race.With a better set up Rule could have a punchers chance of getting 10F.
From the first 4 finishes, three of them were positioned 11, 9, 10 after a very fast contested half.Ice Box,a little green(wrong lead most of the stretch) but tries hard.
Looks like Escandeyra has them over a barrel today, pending being sold and all other related stuff that can go wrong. Not sold on Looking For Lucky\'s grindy style which may be his undoing without a good trip.Noble\'s Promise run down from behind in 2 of his three races,not a good sign for 10f.
Couple of preps to go and someone can easily move up into the picture which is getting clearer.
Mike
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ice Box\'s dam won the Glen Falls going 1 1/2
> miles, his second dam is by Alysheba and his third
> dam was the dam of Spend a Buck.
>
> The 1 1/4 should not be a problem for this guy.
>
> He has 6 weeks to recover from what seemed like a
> big effort assuming Zito doesn\'t run him again.
>
> He has already improved ALOT from his 2 year old
> top so another move forward in the Derby is very
> unlikely and his running style is tough in a 20
> horse field so there are certainly some question
> marks but the pedigree is there to go the extra
> distance and he ran a big one today for sure.
who was that guy telling us he didn\'t like Tabasco Cat on bottom?
oh yeah, that was me.
still not a huge fan, but there was one outstanding TC filly who was very successful going long, and that was indeed Spice Island. the genes likely came from her dam.
Ice Box will probably wind up like the typical Zito one-run specialist, and will likely uncork that run a few more times before he\'s done. the problem with these guys is that you never know when they are going to pop (though a fast pace is one of the pre-requisites). yesterday\'s race was ripe for a trip-aided long shot, but I picked the wrong one (or two).
the angle out of the race, as far as I can tell, will be to downgrade the horses that picked up the pieces, and upgrade the ones that ran too close to the pace. the exception to the rule might be, well, Rule. compromised indeed, but his speedy trip is getting a lot of press, and I\'m not sure there will be much value in that info next out. a few of those colts with two runs going in will get better as the year goes on.
DRF reports that Ice Box didn\'t switch leads in the stretch.
Wondering what the prevailing view here is, concerning that type of behavior.
It seems to show immaturity, which can\'t happen again if he\'s gonna be a factor in May. But, also seems to say something about the quality of horse to run another down, despite that.
Ice Box looked like Alydar,on the wrong lead the entire stretch. Sometimes it\'s greeness,sometimes it can be a horses way of trying to get off discomfort/stress.In any case it\'s a negative if it continues.
Mike
put Ice\'s sheet over Strike The Gold\'s. adjust 4 points, and it\'s essentially the same thing.
The debacle yesterday was that Rule was an underlay as well as the other 2 ML faves. For the most part any other forging horse had a great shot to win at a nice price. I took the next fastest horse that was forging on the Thoros and he wound up not firing and I am not humiliated by that. Especially when i used profit money from earlier in the day with that exacta winning and I wound up making over $1000 for the day with the $5.40 to show in the San Luis later on in the day.
NP should not be on that lead in the Derby so what makes you think he cant get a nice stalking trip and bust a nicely timed move in the stretch? LAL will be coming from even further back. I would rather pick a horse like NP who is 2nd off the layoff and will have nice rest into the race (not being fully developed) than a horse like Rule that has seemed to run his limitations temporarily based on the rest and pattern analysis.
\"NP should not be on that lead in the Derby so what makes you think he cant get a nice stalking trip and bust a nicely timed move in the stretch\".
nyc,
....he already did that twice at shorter distances and got run down.Pattern and rest are definitely part of the equation,not all of it.
mike
NYC,
You need to get over yourself.
You are a legend in your own mind and very little of what you talk about on this board has to do with Thorograph.
Please stop posting on phantom profits from races that you didn\'t post about.
If you want to do a TG based analysis and put your neck on the line on any race, great, I would love to see it. I enjoy thinking about anyone\'s opinion on the TGs and it doesn\'t matter if you are wrong. I am wrong about races all the time, there\'s no shame in that if it\'s a decent analytical argument.
However, when you are wrong please show a bit of humility and whatever you do, stop the nonsense about money you won on races that you didn\'t post on. Finally, please stop talking about how much money you bet on a given race or how much money you made on a day. First of all, no one believes you. Second of all, there are people on this board (not me) that bet real money, not the tidbits you are talking about and you embarrass yourself even more when you make a big deal out of winning $1,000 on a day. That\'s the tip money for some of the people on this board.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
you make a big deal out of
> winning $1,000 on a day. That\'s the tip money for
> some of the people on this board.
Sounds about right. I\'d pay that much for a good tip, right about now.
I\'m liking Caracortado if he makes he the post at louisville.Reached a 3 on polycrap.Probable bounce last time,but I hoping it was healthy and he will come back to the 3 in the SA derby.Hoping for that type of line coming back on the dirt
at Churchill.Great tactical speed for position in a huge field and has a nice turn
of foot to pounce.His blood is interesting as well.Hoping he\'s overshadowed by all
the big names in May.
Good luck
mjs
Ok this post will be all over the place cause there are many things to say but...
I did the analysis with the Florida Derby and someone had asked me about what I would personally play. I did exactly what I had said. I understand that its pointless to say how much I wager for that is my business but going into this race I responded to someones question. As far as the San Luis I posted my opinion and I did the same with the Bonnie Miss Stakes. If you havent noticed I dabble a few dollars here and there but when I see something I really like within 15 to 1 or less I usually do a big show wager...and thats always been my go to thing. Whatever its my thing and Il stop posting about it.
As far as making money, I do make a big deal out of making $1,000 or more a day. Assuming I did that successfully twice a week for a year I would be making over $100k a year. I think that would be a pretty nice profession dont you? As far as everyone elses tip money and having more money to wager (or a bankroll) unfortunately I dont have that luxury when I put money into a Show pool. Theres comes to a point where a bigger show wager will significantly affect the payout at certain tracks at certain times and my personal bankroll has nothing to do with others and again I will stop posting about money and I agree with ya. Unless I have a picture of myself holding a ticket with the wager each race I agree that theres no way of anyone believing it so whatever.
I feel that I have much more recently than not stuck to the analysis with the Thorograph Numbers and patterns with all my posts unless it has been in a general thread about the Derby, Patterns, etc. so il continue that as usual.
I will not be humiliated on a 40 to 1 shot based on what the analysis showed me going into this specific race with THREE favorties being underlays/tosses. Its no different than anyone using the thoros who thought Rule would run a top effort and did a win wager then lost. A loss is a loss.
Question for ya: Why do I only get credit from you for picking the wrong bomb and no credit for the 3 ML faves being those underlays/tosses within the same exact analysis? Especially when two longshots came in first and second. The point is I had the right idea going into the race within my analysis.... Right? Your just criticizing me since I picked the wrong horse when it couldve been several horses.
I tried to make 3 points within that analysis..
1. The 3 faves especially the morning line Fave, Rule, was an underlay or a toss.
2. horses that have showed to improve forward thru a pattern and nice rest would MOST LIKELY win that race..not a horse that showed it would go backwards (the 3 faves ALL based on no rest within the pattern)
3. Given the 2 above that BA seemed to have a healthy pattern, nice rest, and faster figures and was better than a 20 ML shot to win ( just as the others, but werent my pick cause they were a little slower)
I think the biggest point I have proven here is sooo many people, with these young horses, get mesmerized with a very fast figure (such as the 3 faves in this race) and try to make an excuse to play those horses more often than not. I am strictly a pattern read player and and feel its the best way to handicap. I think this FLorida Derby is a great lesson that even the fastest horses coming into the race can very well be an underlay based on prior patterns. Learning from this race as well as others should help us figure out future races with what to look for in order to make better decisions.
Coracatado has proven to need nice rest to run at a new level.. im not really sure the rest he has had so far but if he comes into the derby off about 50 days or more rest then he looks pretty good to me to run well at nice odds. Cant take anything at all away from that point of view. Same thing goes for Rule he will have about 80s days off and has shown to run at the 1 level with 3 months off. Goin to be tough to gaugh horses like NP and LAL cause those horses will be 2nd off the layoff and should most likely improve even more from the last efforts.
Stick to the sheet analysis, which you do okay. Lose the rest, especially noise after the race unless you SPECIFICALLY say who you are betting and HOW (show, win/show, whatever) before the race.
Leave the amounts out. There are actual pros here. Some day you may become one. If you do it won\'t be by making big show bets on longshots, because a) bookmakers almost never take show bets unless you also bet win/place, and b) if you put it into the pools the price will drop precipitously due to the small pools, negating the value of them being longshots.
nyc,
I\'m slightly confused.\"Rest\" for you means exactly what?
rest according to the horses indidual pattern.. according to what i see with his specific pattern is when he ran a new top he regressed twice with short rest. when he got the well deserved rest ( i believe 48 days off from what i remember) he ran a new top an santa anita.. he then took off about 20-30 days off and went backwards again. The time of rest I am talking about is the time from his first original top effort to the new top effort (im guessing about 70-80 days off). having about that much time from his last top effort to his next race would allow me to think he can come back to another top race.
nyc,
at any rate,my inclusion of this guy at CD is contingent upon him getting back
to his 3 in the SA derby and him being a big price.I\'m speculating he may like
dirt more than polyjunk and i\'m looking at the \"been running on polyworthlesssurface going to dirt angle\".If this comes to fruition I\'ll be wagering wps and tying him in with others in exoctics and so on and so forth.The
next 40 days should prove interesting.
good luck,
mjs
> Stick to the sheet analysis, which you do okay.
I appreciate that and I will unless its a general thread.
> Lose the rest, especially noise after the race
> unless you SPECIFICALLY say who you are betting
> and HOW (show, win/show, whatever) before the
> race.
ok sounds good.
>
> Leave the amounts out.
I have already said I would and I actually apologize. The fact is that I am so involved within horse racing so much and when I place a wager of $1000 or more to show I feel REALLY good about my chances based on many factors. Again, I will stop but my passion for certain opinions tend to overwhelm me when i feel that confident to pull the trigger within the thorograph analysis. I emphasize certain amounts to show my confidence with what I see.
> There are actual pros here.
I consider myself a pro based on a living, for several years, without working (a typical 9 to 5..etc) and making profit because of YOUR product. How can you tell me anything different IF (which i understand you would want proof) I am making a living doing so?
> Some day you may become one.
I am one whether you (or anyone) wants to believe that or not.
If you do it won\'t be
> by making big show bets on longshots, because a)
> bookmakers almost never take show bets unless you
> also bet win/place,
They DO take those wagers on ANY horse.. I wont post the website(s) out of respect for this site but if you do research almost %100 will AND give you a rebate as long as the horse pays $2.20 or more to show (which i would understand based on negative pools, etc.)
and
b) if you put it into the pools the price will drop precipitously due to the
small pools, negating the value of them being longshots.
Yes the money put into public pools will negate the odds BUT I do not wager in those pools unless I am in person AND the pool has significant money in it which my specific wager will not effect odds. I do have that covered within my profession.
nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As far as making money, I do make a big deal out
> of making $1,000 or more a day. Assuming I did
> that successfully twice a week for a year I would
> be making over $100k a year. I think that would
> be a pretty nice profession dont you?
Without divulging household income, which I will do under protest in about
24 days, I feel comfortable saying that a lot of TG customers/posters are
clearing $100K per annum. Included in that $100K is vacation time, sick time,
matched 401K benefit, life insurance for dependents and partially compensated
health benefits. If one labors in the right industry, added to that $100K might
be a bonus ranging from 5% of one\'s annual compensation to in excess of 100% of
one\'s compensation. Many would contend that the greatest fringe benefit of a
traditional profession is the opportunity to spend 40 - 70 hours away from one\'s
spouse, thus preserving some degree of marital bliss and general sanity.
Of course along with the benefits of a mainstream profession comes the obligation
to pay income taxes, but Hell, the way I figure it the United States needs to
eventually colonize Mars, save all the Earth\'s endangered species and get
involved in most of the World\'s military and religious conflicts,large and small,
and these pursuits require revenue.
Very few working these mainstream professions have the time to reflect that they
are involved on a daily basis with the production of goods or provision of
services which are either essential to or enhance the quality of life of the
general populace. Some working in larger professions do not have
time to reflect that by efficiently managing a going concern they are keeping a
lot of folks employed and keeping families solvent. The satisfaction that comes
from these reflections can be quite gratifying.
So to me, personally, no you are not a professional. You have a job, albeit a
well paying one, but you are making every bit of the contribution to society as
a kid pitching quarters on a stoop somewhere in Brooklyn. But hey, somebody\'s
gotta do it.
NYC you remind me of an old racetrack buddy, one of my oldest friends, someone I
have been going racing with for 35 years. He always loudly booted his horses home,
whipping them with his program, shoving his winning tickets in the face of anyone
who did not turn away from him. He never understood that in pari-mutuel wagering
one of the inescapable realities is that the score you made in any given race was
likely (indirectly) at the expense of someone standing very close to you, and
said circumstance calls for a certain amount of decorum, what Covel has called
\"humility\".
I can not tell you the number of times I had to prevent my obnoxious racetrack
buddy from taking a beating (by his own friends) in the grandstand or the parking
lot after the races...
> I think the biggest point I have proven here is
> sooo many people, with these young horses, get
> mesmerized with a very fast figure (such as the 3
> faves in this race) and try to make an excuse to
> play those horses more often than not. I am
> strictly a pattern read player and and feel its
> the best way to handicap. I think this FLorida
> Derby is a great lesson that even the fastest
> horses coming into the race can very well be an
> underlay based on prior patterns. Learning from
> this race as well as others should help us figure
> out future races with what to look for in order to
> make better decisions.
Pure post mortem analysis, and over analysis of the pattern. Nowhere
in your analysis did I see any mention of the fact that Pulsion or some
other runner would get up to Rule\'s throatlatch and press him through hot
fractions. The pace scenario, and not any intricate pattern voodoo based on
days of rest, is what cooked the favorite and set up the winner. I know we have
gotten to the point where pace discussions are almost heretical on this board,
but in the Florida Derby I think the duel between Rule and Pulsion (and the
inability or unwillingness to rate Rule) was the main storyline.
Looking forward to your analysis of the Derby preps and the Triple Crown. Don\'t
forget to go \"all in\" on Best Actor if and when he tries turf.
Richiebee
Pool 2 9/1 LAL Secured
Back in 1990, Go For Wand would not switch leads. So I bet Bayakoa.
I appreciate that you are a client and will leave it there.
Which is tough to do.
While his style (and substance) may be different from some of the more popular posters on this forum, I always read and enjoy nyc1347\'s posts as well.
He has made some excellent picks and puts his opinions out there for everyone to see.
I don\'t see why anyone would doubt the bets he said he placed. I also like to tell everyone what I bet. I believe him.
I NEVER bet horses to show but have found nyc\'s adventures in the show pool interesting and entertaining even though I think it is a really bad idea and would advise him to stop making these bets.
This forum should be a \"big tent\", no?
MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Back in 1990, Go For Wand would not switch leads.
> So I bet Bayakoa.
Gee, thanks for the memory.
Did you bet on Mancini over Duk Koo Kim also??
As long as you learned not to bet on horses who don\'t change leads, I\'ll forgive the sarcasm.
Thats not the point.
You could have given any number of examples, you chose to pick one of the biggest tragedies in the history of the Breeders\' Cup.
I didn\'t need that example to \"learn\" about switching leads, or the lack thereof. Its something that was awful to watch, and didn\'t need to be reminded of.
I didn\'t particularly enjoy cashing that ticket.
Got your attention though, right? I didn\'t find any joy in cashing either.
Louisiana Derby: Taking a shot with Stay Put.Ground loss while running into a slow
pace last time.Obviously hoping for ground save and legit up front.Been working
consistent and well since the last.Hoping for a decent price.
Good luck,
mjs
So do we have a consensus of opinion on this board as to why Ice Box didn\'t change leads on Saturday? Is it inexperience, a sign of injury or will he just never get it?
That\'s the key question going into May 1 and needs to be the key thing we watch for as he works out in the weeks to come.
Bob
Suppose it should be noted IB switched to his correct lead in his 2 prior
races.
good luck,
mjs
And how did he finish up after he switched leads. Often times horses switch leads because they fatigue but slow down once they are asked to run on the leg they would prefer not to be putting weight on.
Ice Box has six weeks to get healthier and if his training is not compromised because of whatever issue there may be this is a non-issue for someone looking to bet on him.
But it is a flag on the day-to-day and while a horse may win again despite not wanting to switch leads eventually it will get him.
IB won both his prior races while switching to the correct lead and staying on the correct lead.
mjs
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And how did he finish up after he switched leads.
> Often times horses switch leads because they
> fatigue but slow down once they are asked to run
> on the leg they would prefer not to be putting
> weight on.
>
I watched the gallop out a couple of times and it seemed like every horse in the field blew past IB AND Rule in the gallop out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFObMTA6qmI
Ice Box coming into the race on a two race winning streak.
I thought he was beaten 5 lengths in the FOY
He was beaten 12 lengths in the FOY
IB had a brutal trip in the FOY. Given the overall lack of imposing 3yr olds so far, he has to be considered as one with a longshot\'s chance with the right derby set up.Zito seen to be \"unconscious\" by some but he shows up fairly often in May.
Mike
re the gallop out when I saw initially we all said that looks like a sore horse with a very ouchy pullup soon after the wire ...
pardon me.my mistake,however IB did switch to the correct lead in the FOY as well.
So,3 straight races where he switched to the correct lead and stayed there through
the lane.
mjs
No he didn\'t. He was on the wrong lead. I saw it clearly during the race and pointed this out to a fellow capper because he hadn\'t seen it. When they showed the replay we confirmed it. He\'s right next to pleasant prince so it should be easy to see. The fact that this is not something the horse has done in the past and the way he completely shut down after the wire would seem to me to indicate an all out exhausting effort or an issue that is about to rear its ugly head. Either way, this horse is going to need all of that 6 weeks to recoup and I would need to see clear positive signs in his training to include him in KY, if he makes it that far.
I can pretty much end this suspense now about whether Ice Box makes it to the starting gate for the derby by divulging that I have a ticket from the Wynn on Ice Box at 85-1 to win the thing and so there\'s no way that he even comes close to making it to the race because god forbid I be allowed to enjoy some fun in the game and/or have a few of my futures bets live on the First Sat in May so that I can have some built-in hedges against whoever the spirit (i.e. the Mint Juleps) move me to play that particular wonderful Sat.
And yes, before anyone points this out, I completely diluted my potential returns by placing futures bets on too many different horses (I think it was 6 all together). I have said before I am an idiot junkie for the futures bets. It will take every ounce of restraint in my body not to dive in again this weekend for pool 3. As Jimbo used to say, I bet more like an owner than a gambler (man I miss that guy I this board) and as JB will attest to, I suck at owning them as well.
Also, because I know that everyone has been anxiously awaiting the update....my wife got nixed from the Derby trip this year after that inexplicably weak effort passing out from too many Juleps right after Mine that Bird crossed the wire last year. This year it\'s a big boy trip only. Sorry babe.
Ice Box will be there. Zito does not need a whole lot of coerscion to run a horse in the Derby.
He ran the fill-in last year when there was a late removal around draw day.
This horse will be there with 6 wks rest and trainer who has won the race more than once before.
well, then his weight assignment will be 205lbs of me on his back, let\'s see if he can switch leads tacking that!
mjellish,
I\'m referring to IB\'s maiden win,allowance win and the FOY.
mjs
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
.
> Also, because I know that everyone has been
> anxiously awaiting the update....my wife got nixed
> from the Derby trip this year after that
> inexplicably weak effort passing out from too many
> Juleps right after Mine that Bird crossed the wire
> last year. This year it\'s a big boy trip only.
> Sorry babe.
You\'re gonna shut the little man out of the Derby? After his brilliant Cornell
plus-the-points selection? (They\'ll probably need those points against Kentucky
in a game a lot of experts are saying will be surprisingly close).
Even if Mrs Covel was tanked on mint juleps, she probably had as much of an idea
of who was rallying on the rail as Tom Durkin did.
Bring the little man to Louisville... a great chance for some father son Derby bonding!
I wouldn\'t subject the 150k people at Churchill on May 1st to the terror that is my 3 year old son.
Bad enough that he tears up the Equestris and Monmouth Simulcast bar area with regularity, the Twin Spires would never be the same if I unleashed that monster in that place.
Moreover, I am going to bring him down to the training center in Ocala where my two year olds (horses not kids) are getting ready to go to the track on a splinter trip from our Disney vacation in 2 weeks (the mint julep loving life loves that idea by the way as you could imagine).
Final story for this post, one of my mares had her foal yesterday and I showed my 3 year old the video of the foal nursing and he asked \"if he could get some milk from the mommy horsey\" when we see her. Oh goodness.