Same as the Filly race.
Case can be made this race was a non-event that fell apart and the winner and runnerup ran about like they did the last time out when dusted by 10 or so.
Davona Dale
Times in 5ths: :233 :471 1:103 1:352 1:49
Rampart
Times in 5ths: :233 :472 1:111 1:361 1:491
Florida Derby
Times in 5ths: :231 :462 1:103 1:36 1:49
Well put!
Interested to see what Rules number was in this race. Im guessing a regression off the 1 effort as I expected. Maybe a 2 or 3? Ice Box maybe a 0? That be such a huge jump though (6 points) and I would think IB would need at least about 3 months to recover.. that be a biiig jump for this guy. A pair of that effort (very unlikely) wouldnt be (in my opinion) good to win the derby and I cant see another forward move off such a big move already.. so a regression or bounce are the only other 2 decisions to make for this one... same goes for that 4 horse who developed from a.. SEVEN. Im looking elsewhere as there are better promising patterns that look much better than IB.
Oh and for you guys who I would expect to question my 3 months rest theory... cause im waiting for it.. lol I am using a round figure such as a horse like Birdstone who came off about 3 months rest off a big jump (into negative territory)from the belmont stakes into the Jim Dandy where he came back to run perfectly fine and win.. or a horse like Bernardini who ran a neg 2 or so and then had 3 months from his next race winning and running a nice top effort with no issues.
A few things ive picked up as a generalization these young horses...
- When a horse reaches negative territory first out as a 3 year old they usually improve second off the layoff.
- when horses who make a big jump into that negative territory, I like to have them get 3 months off before running again.
-- the perfect example is Birdstone and Bernardini as stated above. Perfect timing and rest and have already hit that top number...came back to it after rest and its a beautiful thing AND most importantly a great betting situation!
-- poor example a horse like bellamy road who ran a negative 5 had no rest and bounced off the walls... needed something like 7 months off before coming back again to race at gulfstream in january. Or a horse like Sinister Minister who ran out of his mind and retired soon after.
- There are a couple exceptions of course such as big brown (which he still bounced belmont day and even with a lot of rest couldnt get bck to a top in the haskell) or Afleet Alex (who still needed a month off to get back to a neg 2 effort from his original neg 2... AND even 3 weeks off he ran poorer in the Belmont coming from the preakness.
- Timing is everything with these new tops and this includes the winner and runner up in the Florida derby.. same thing with those 3 faves coing into the florida derby.
Looking at this Florida derby race.. I will say that I think Rule should run a great Kentucky Derby race based on pattern and timing from his previous top..i feel he should be used but as Ive said I dont think will improve past a 1... a 1 effort though should be good enough underneath with tris and/or supers compared to other horses in this crop but before jumping to any conclusions we will get a better feel within the next couple of weeks! Looking forward to it!
nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Oh and for you guys who I would expect to question
> my 3 months rest theory...
NYC: I am past questioning, and pretty much ignoring at this point.
> A few things ive picked up as a generalization with
> these young horses...
One thing I learned in nearly 12 years of leading thoroughbreds around with a
shank and following them around with a pitchfork and waking up at 4AM to feed
them is that they are individuals, and when you \"generalize\" you will generally
make errors in judgment.
>Looking at this Florida derby race.. I will say
> that I think Rule should run a great Kentucky
> Derby race based on pattern and timing from his
> previous top..i feel he should be used but as Ive
> said I dont think will improve past a 1... a 1
> effort though should be good enough underneath
> with tris and/or supers compared to other horses
> in this crop but before jumping to any conclusions
> we will get a better feel within the next couple
> of weeks! Looking forward to it!
Pure pattern poppycock. Instead of facing an awful field (I think the field in
the Swale was deeper than the Fla Derby) with one other speed horse going 9
furlongs, Rule, who showed no rate-ability, will be facing a full field of
runners,some with legitimate speed, going an extra furlong.
Unless Rule is trained to rate, I call him closer to the caboose than the
locomotive if he goes on May 1.
Now get to work on the quality FG cards this weekend.
> Pure pattern poppycock. Instead of facing an awful
> field (I think the field in
> the Swale was deeper than the Fla Derby) with one
> other speed horse going 9
> furlongs, Rule, who showed no rate-ability, will
> be facing a full field of
> runners,some with legitimate speed, going an extra
> furlong.
>
> Unless Rule is trained to rate, I call him closer
> to the caboose than the
> locomotive if he goes on May 1.
Whats poppycock to me is how many people add so many dimensions to something so simple. Every horse has a different ability and will run into many different situations. It seems like I am the only that handicaps using the raw numbers of the thorographs comparing each horse with pattern and rest only. How else can I come up with a projection? Using sire stats or assuming he would need to rate? What would happen if Rule went soft fractions Derby Day? And was able to go wire to wire? well if he was running 8s and 9s I dont think he would be able to win but hes projected to run around a 1 (to me based on pattern) and that goes big compared to others in the field. THAT number (assuming he ran it) would be good enough to beat MANY horses that already run slower (not counting whatever ground loss that day) no matter on distance, rating, sires, etc. MANY horses would need an effort they have never ran before to beat him and thats based on the actual Thorograph number and patterns from what I have seen so far.
I dont understand how anyone can go on anything else when all horses have different abilities and patterns coming into a specific race..!? To me Rule didnt run to his top ability and rate in the Florida derby because he simply didnt have enough rest to run his best based on his pattern and previous efforts with timing. Wouldnt that be a logical and simple explaination? I agree he will run against some quality horses but no matter what, a horse would have to step up and run faster than a 1 or 2 (which i am assuming will happen) in order to beat him unless they saved much more ground. The extra furlong is bologna.. these horses are trained and pampered by the best in the game. If a horse can get 8F to me they can get 10F as long as the timing and pattern allow that to happen coming into a racing situation.
In general, the only thing I can say that would make anyone change their minds beyond the thorograph numbers and patterns with picking a slower horse would be odds on that given horse..which is totally different since money would be added into the equation beyond just the race analysis.
> Now get to work on the quality FG cards this
> weekend.
Aye aye captain!
Dana thx. Maybe the nicest thing anybody has ever said about my posts here. And maybe the other comments were warranted.
I\'m thinking this Florida Derby is more in the Bull in the Heather category than certainly Big Brown or Quality Road. However as learned last year with Mine that Bird with the rihgt trip and the right track anything can happen on Derby Day.
There is the six weeks of rest and recovery for the winner and runnerup. Like Richiebee I am not to keen on Rule who ran hard. This is not Quality Road or even Funny Cide.
There were a lot of horses bunched up in the Rampart and non of them were all that fast going in. So if the time of this race was similar to the Fla Derby I dont see how the figure for either race can be all that fast coming out.
Silver,
One thing about last year that we still don\'t know about this year is how many of the best ones will make it to the starting gate.
By the time we got to the First Sat in May last year, we had lost Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Pamplemouse, Old Fashioned, etc, so really we lost most/all of them who had run big numbers heading into the race.
This year, I think there is a fair amount of consensus that Esk and LAL stand out amongst this crop right now. I certainly believe they do anyway and I know alot of trainers, jockeys, jockeys agents and bloodstock agents that feel the same way.
If one or both of those two can\'t make it to the gate, then I think chaos will regin supreme again at Churchill but if they both make it there the right way, it\'s hard (for me at least) to see both of them getting beat.
Still alot of wood left to chop between now and then, that\'s what makes this so much dam fun.
Thanks for posting those fractions, I hadn\'t realized that before you put them up.
I agree with you there on who shows up. Even when they do like Empire Maker or I Want Revenge something can happen late.
The best thing that probably happened to Esky is he is waiting an extra two weeks for the Wood. If there was no Rule Pletcher probably would have run him in the Fla Derby when he wasn\'t maybe quite ready. I think there is a decent chance he pairs in the Wood then the four weeks should have him about right.
LAL will RUN A TOP on Derby Day. Baffert has at least two who have who won. Silver Charm and Real Quiet. Pioneer of the Nile looked like a winner then the impossible occurred. The guy totally knows what he is doing and if you are betting he doesnt then you are asking for it.
Pletcher is another story........
The man with the silver hair certainly knows how to have them ready.
Love how he\'s handling LAL right now.
Gave him experience on the dirt and he won the race and ran fast without being cranked up and then it seems like he\'s going to go with a final prep in the SA Derby so no ship and pro ride easier to bounce back from compared to dirt.
I am very anxious to see what number LAL ran in the Rebel. We should see tomorrow night I would think when TG posts the derby futures pool sheets.
I think LAL\'s Rebel number will be good but nothing super great. If you look at the work pattern leading up to it, the fact he won with some trouble, makes it all that more impressive however.
Good stuff on the Crist Blog about the Pace of the Fla Derby compared to the other 2 similarly timed Stakes. I agree with his thesis. Won the speed duel but lost the race is a great handicapping angle. It is one of two reasons why am called Silver Charm.
http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/
I think the Rebel couldve been about a 0 to negative 1 for LAL. Which makes him explosive next out! just hope its not too much improvement second off the layoff cause he will only have about a month off going into derby day.
Okay, you got me. Why is Rule a bounce candidate off a 1 point top 1st time 3yo, but LAL is explosive off what (if you\'re right) is a 3 point top first 3yo? Both bounced following their 2yo top.
Great question Jerry and this is my view of both horses and lines...
Rule improved 8 points last year alone. When he came out this year he had 3 months of rest from his top and only improved one point (9.75 points of development) telling me, according to his pattern, that he needed 3 months off just to get one point improvement from last year. Rest, at this top level, seems to be a big thing with this horse running his top efforts. The FIRST 3 months this horse ran he developed 8 TOTAL points.. the next 3 months (with his layoff) he only IMPROVED ONE point telling me that this horse is probably reaching \"the end of his line\" (at least temporarily). Going into the FLorida Derby I read the pattern as he would go backwards due to having limited time off (based on what i saw) and previously showed he needed 3 months off (at the 1-2 level) and I expected an off effort or small chance of a bounce with just 30 or so days off.
With looking at lucky he finally got thru to a top on BC Day, to a 3, and having about 30 days off did bounce a month later. BUT the key is that he had only improved FOUR points only with last years line overall. A THREE POINT JUMP IN ONE RACE from only 4 points improvement last year would naturally tell us now in hinesight that this horse had every reason to bounce especially racing 6 times last year every month.
Assuming LAL ran a 0 to neg 1 last out (first off the layoff at the rebel) he had 3-4 months rest from his top last year to this years first race. LAL has shown EQUAL development from last year coming into this year (unlike Rule) telling me that this is a FORGING horse still and this horse has NOT reached an \"end of the line\" situation. He is IMPROVING EQUAL to last years line and being that the development is consistent, this horse should run about an average 1 point better or so on average (according to his pattern every month) til he finally reaches the end of that line which is TBD in the future.
LAL next out is 2nd off the layoff, lookin at the pattern he is equally consistent in development from last year, his top efforts based on rest are consistent with his pattern, rest going into his next race should be absolutely no problem whatsoever having plenty of rest from last years campaign..and to me all of these factors make this horse explosive or at worst a small improvement should be expected next time out in my opinion coinciding with the forging he is showing us.
First of all, I\'m glad you think it\'s a great question.
Development isn\'t measured from a first out. It\'s measured from the first effort that causes a horse to react. 14-12-10-8 is fitness and learning to run, not development. If the other were true there are lots of horses that would be developing 30 points off bad first outs.
Now, sometimes it\'s right to start counting from a pair-up as the baseline of development, under the theory that a horse had established a level, that he didn\'t immediately go forward from the first one. But it would be silly in this case to do that for Rule, since the pair came in his first two starts, and he marched straight forward thereafter.
So here are the relevant comparisons:
LAL-- stayed basically at the same level for 4 races, made one jump, bounced 3 points to his previous level.
Rule-- moved forward after 2 races, did so again, bounced 2 points, to a figure still better than those prior to his top. (Much better pattern).
LAL-- using your zero figure, had almost 4 points of development from a number that caused a 3 point bounce at two.
Rule-- had one point of development from a 2yo top that caused a 2 point bounce. (Much better).
The unmeasurable variable here is that LAL\'s race was first dirt. If you take that out of the equation (which you can\'t), he would be much more likely to fall apart than be explosive next time.
I would have made Rule about 33/33/33% on top, pair or bounce.
\"It is one of two reasons why am called Silver Charm.\"
Guessing the other is because you have gray hair, live on hay and oats, and weigh 1,200 pounds?
When i personally look at development/improvements I always start at the first race and flow forward. IF that terrible first race does NOT fall in line with the horses forward pattern.. (ex: 28, 10, 8, 7) i would not count the low 28 effort at all. I couldnt say that a horse with this specific pattern had 21 points on improvement.. i would say that he had 3 points overall and by him going forward in small steps from the 10, the 28 would be a complete non effort compared to the horses flow. So I wouldnt count the 28. A great example of this is Caracortada. He ran terrible at first and then went to the poly and jumped huge.. then continued to run in line with those efforts. Plenty of rest allowed him to improve off his previous top and no rest sent this horse to regress again. This horse I would start from his jump up race and try to establish a pattern as long as he stood on Poly. That horse doesnt seem to like Dirt too much.. anyways getting back to it..
A horse like Rule that has improved last year the 8 points (from my thinking) with 3-4 months of time from his first start (with everything falling in line) THEN bouncing just a couple points is a really good sign with just 30 days off running at this level BUT having 90 days off and running a 1 effort has to tell me that the 2 effort is a big number for this horse. To only have 1 point improvement after 3 months off compared to last years improvements of 3 months gives me the thinking that his abilities beyond this level is not likely unless he has 3 months between tops from THIS level.
Even as you use development from the horses first time it bounced ( the 2 effort ), essentially the horse STILL only improved only ONE full point from that effort with 90 days off. This is as i stated in previous posts a great sign BUT it took 3 months from last year to only get 1 point and going into the Florida Derby how can u have him %33 to run another top AND %33 to pair? That doesnt make any sense to me and i respectfully disagree for the Florida Derby race. I had him about huge percentage to throw a couple point regression (as he showed last year and a small percentage to bounce.. nothing else based on rest within the pattern. NEXT OUT (kentucky derby), is much different. Im expecting Rule to run about a 1-2 range number because of rest and what he has now shown in 3 consecutive races at THIS level.
Going into BC LAL had only improved 1.5 point.. the 3 point jump to a 3 that day equaled %75 of his overall improvement from day one.. how can we not expect a bounce looking at this today with only 30 days off? The dirt number in the Rebel seems to have fallen perfectly in line with poly efforts as well as what I am saying with last years pattern. Im expecting almost %100 chance of improvement from LALs first start this year next out using this point of view.
Im starting to see that I read the thorographs much different than mostly everyone on here. The main thing is that I let the horse tell me on paper what he should do next out and trust the Thoro number for what it is along with rest and pattern and compare each horse to each other.
In general I don\'t have a problem with your pattern reading, and you\'re looking at time between races and tops, which is often overlooked and undervalued. Also, any pure sheet discussion here is a plus (especially if I don\'t have to do it), but you need to ratchet down the cockiness several notches-- again, there are pros here.
HOWEVER, on these two--
1-- Forget that \"took 3 months\" thing. Other than pairing the big jump, Rule COULDN\'T have run it sooner since they didn\'t start him sooner. When you are dealing with horses aimed for a target (the Derby), management becomes an issue, and can\'t be held against the horse. This also goes to the question of how wound up they are off the layoff-- small improvement is what they want, it\'s not a negative. Top outfits are not trying to get big tops with Derby contenders now.
2-- LAL had one number better than a 6 1/2 last year, and he bounced badly from it. There\'s no way a number 4 points better than THAT one (and 10 better than his secondary top) could be considered a step towards something else short term, ESPECIALLY when it comes after rest. Horses that run big off layoffs are notorious for falling apart, not for going forward. On top of that, there\'s the synth/dirt one-and-done issue-- a lot of them make the big jump and disappear.
Close on the gray hair and 1,200 lbs, so 2 out of 3 aint bad. And no its \"the other guy\" not me who is the big Meatloaf Fan. Even though he puts on a good show. Meatloaf that is....
On a Beyer Scale he looked explosive. He had run a huge figure in the San Vicente first time out, around a 113. While TG shows no regression next out (see file in the following link) he backed up Beyer wise. The trainer was not happy with his trip, to far back, belated rally, so he switched jockeys. Next race out was the trainer ordered speed duel in the SA Derby with Sharp Cat and then just beaten gamely by Free House. Beyer wise he recovered back to the 113.
http://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/derby1997.pdf
So now you have a horse I have been following day-by-day all spring who has an explosive looking line and has just run gamely in the proverbial won the speed duel lost the race angle. Sprinkle in a Pre-Derby CD training pattern that looked erily reminiscent of Sunday Silence and a trainer you could sense was on the cusp of \"my turn\".
We did a small radio show in Lousville during Derby Week at that time. I GUARANTEED Silver Charm for the win and the COLD Exacta with Captain Bodgit. Free House and maybe one other were to be used underneath in the Tri and HAMMER DOWN on Blushing KD with Silver Charm in the Oaks Derby Double.
Any horse you see get down on his belly and run his heart out to deliver the goods for you in the last 100 yds of the Kentucky Derby is one you never forget.
EVER!!!
LAL will RUN A TOP on Derby Day. Baffert has at least two who have who won. Silver Charm and Real Quiet. Pioneer of the Nile looked like a winner then the impossible occurred. The guy totally knows what he is doing and if you are betting he doesnt then you are asking for it.
Silver,
It\'s hard to knock someone who\'s trained 3 KD winners.War emblem won in 02 and
was purchased 3 weeks prior to the derby.RQ and SC 97 AND 98.I\'m not sure if he
TOTALLY knows,but he sure has quite a few bullets to fire every year.
Imo LAL is a contender,but I\'m not annointing him anything solely because he\'s
trained by BB.I don\'t think he\'ll get around Caracortado at SA next out.
good luck,
mjs
> In general I don\'t have a problem with your
> pattern reading, and you\'re looking at time
> between races and tops, which is often overlooked
> and undervalued. Also, any pure sheet discussion
> here is a plus (especially if I don\'t have to do
> it), but you need to ratchet down the cockiness
> several notches-- again, there are pros here.
I apologize and def. do not want to come across as cocky at all. I just try to stress my point of view and I strictly go by pattern within the thoro numbers.
>
> HOWEVER, on these two--
>
> 1-- Forget that \"took 3 months\" thing. Other than
> pairing the big jump, Rule COULDN\'T have run it
> sooner since they didn\'t start him sooner. When
> you are dealing with horses aimed for a target
> (the Derby), management becomes an issue, and
> can\'t be held against the horse. This also goes to
> the question of how wound up they are off the
> layoff-- small improvement is what they want, it\'s
> not a negative. Top outfits are not trying to get
> big tops with Derby contenders now.
I completely agree with the management of Rule in general and in THIS situation it seems like it was a perfect thing to do with him. Based on the pattern AND rest Rule should run around his top Derby day. The problem with that is i dont think a 1 or 2 would be good enough to win. I do not use anything against a horse unless he specifically shows me something. Even though he didnt run in January or sooner when he did finally run Rule HAS showed first out that he ran a 1 effort.. this couldve been a negative 2 or an 8. The 1 effort coming out from a layoff tells me how the horse responded to the management and decisions that they gave for him. My analysis amd point of view comes in at that point seeing how the horse came out this year compared to last year. Overall i see that the horse needs that 90 days or so to run a top effort based on this pattern read.
>
> 2-- LAL had one number better than a 6 1/2 last
> year, and he bounced badly from it. There\'s no way
> a number 4 points better than THAT one (and 10
> better than his secondary top) could be considered
> a step towards something else short term,
> ESPECIALLY when it comes after rest. Horses that
> run big off layoffs are notorious for falling
> apart, not for going forward. On top of that,
> there\'s the synth/dirt one-and-done issue-- a lot
> of them make the big jump and disappear.
I understand this point of view as well BUT when you are dealing with a horse whos 4 point improvement last year AND a 3 point move jumping to that 3 (representing %75 of improvement in just one race) we HAVE to expect a bounce in that situation with consistent rest (30 days off after bc day last year flowing with his previous rest from his other races) looking at it today currently. The horse bounced BUT it still came within line of his previous efforts... this is a great sign to me. To me, this is not a terrible bounce. A terrible bounce to me wouldve been anything from 8 or less.
With that being said the management and rest given to this horse going to his first off the layoff falls in line once again with consistent improvement from last year (about 0.5-1pt improvement each month). Hes reached a new level and is entering second off the layoff with that nice rest previous to his last race and is as fresh as can be. Also, A BIG thing to say as well is that the dirt effort not only fell in line with development BUT it also fell in line with his poly efforts.. everything is consistent with this horse forging as more time goes by. Hes older now and should be able to run much more consistent now this year. If that bounce from a 3 to a 6 was THAT bad he probably wouldnt have ran a new top last out (1st off the layoff). He did (i assume) run a new top so I treat this as a new horse and improvement to me is expected as time goes on at this current level whether its poly or dirt he is running on...especially 2nd off the layoff
Flighted Iron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> LAL will RUN A TOP on Derby Day. Baffert has at
> least two who have who won. Silver Charm and Real
> Quiet. Pioneer of the Nile looked like a winner
> then the impossible occurred. The guy totally
> knows what he is doing and if you are betting he
> doesnt then you are asking for it.
>
> Silver,
>
> It\'s hard to knock someone who\'s trained 3 KD
> winners.War emblem won in 02 and
> was purchased 3 weeks prior to the derby.RQ and SC
> 97 AND 98.I\'m not sure if he
> TOTALLY knows,but he sure has quite a few bullets
> to fire every year.
> Imo LAL is a contender,but I\'m not annointing
> him anything solely because he\'s
> trained by BB.I don\'t think he\'ll get around
> Caracortado at SA next out.
>
> good luck,
> mjs
I wouldnt jump to any conclusions yet Flight. We have to see what he runs next time out (2nd off the layoff and the race prior to the derby). If he runs a new top next out and its something like a negative 5 (like bellamy road) he may be a toss in the Derby. According to his pattern he should improve about a point or so each start til he races the end of the line but a huge jump prior to the derby could cause a sever bounce with only 30 days off.
NYC-
There is a HUGE difference between 8F and 10F. There is a big difference between 9F and 10F. If you think there isn\'t, well...
the distance is different but what should mean everything is how each individual horse is coming into a race based on what the horse has previously shown compared to the others. if a horse has a poor pattern, projected to run bad (bounce, etc) or is too slow i dont care what distance you are running cause the horse wont run well either way going any distance. if a horse has run consistently at 8F with nice timing and small forward movements what would make me think he wouldnt do the same at 10f? unless its a specific pattern read or too slow in that specific race compared to the other horses then I have to remain consistent with what the horse is telling me within the thorograph number. right?
nyc,
You may be onto something. Every year all 20 horses finish that 10 furlong Derby full of run.
love the sarcasm lol but ur missing the point. some horses bounce.. some regress.. some dont fire.. some do run great..some run huge... some bounce and win. A horse who has smart strike as a sire such as LAL with a TGI of 11.25, 17% wins, 55 SW, etc. does not give me any indication of how LAL will run coming into a certain race... as well as ANY horse. Part of those percentages include horses that have bounced, ran good, bad, and are obviously on average must slower than LAL. LAL or any horses thorograph number, thoro pattern, timing/rest and comparison against other horses does give us that ability to determine who should and shouldnt fire that day though.
If I have healthy horses running at 8F and they have nice timing and efforts coming into a distance for the first time of 10F how can my opinion change (just because of distance of 2 more F\'s) with a pattern looking positive? Unless theres a horse with a SPECIFIC reason that they have shown not to get the extra distance (which in this case doesnt exist - NP is a great example) then my opinion has to remain consistent with what the horse has shown me prior.
This horse is the real deal don\'t kid yourself.
based on my analysis with and the discussion I had with Jerry on here and in past threads my projections is him being the one and im in agreement.. with my co-choice being NP. Every race presents a new situation though and If LAL does jump huge I may have to toss his out..only time will tell though. Based on what im seeing though with his pattern it looks to be a nice move forward next out that wouldnt mess his line up... same exact thing goes for NP. We will see soon!
NYC-
Let me first say that horse racing is certainly a sport that can teach you what you don\'t know, and when you find out what you don\'t know it usually turns out to be alot. I know that has been the case with me.
I agree with much of your take about pattern handicapping. It\'s a method I firmly believe in. I would say, however, that you have to be careful not to be too rigid with how apply this method of handicapping to your betting behavior at the windows. The numbers are what make the pattern, and the numbers by themselves are only numbers. Horses are living, breathing animals with preferred running styles and distances. If you take a horse like Bourban Bay, for example, and try running him at 5F on the grass - see what his number comes back at. Same thing goes the other way, try running a horse like Midnight Lute at 1 1/4 and see what his sheet turns out to look like.
Now those are extreme examples. But distance preferences for horses can be very subtle. Sometimes all it takes is an extra 1/8th of a mile and horse\'s performance will suffer. They simply won\'t win unless they are facing an over matched field, get a perfect trip, have a bias aid them, etc., and I don\'t care what their pattern looks like. This is especially true at the classic distances of 1 1/4 and beyond, and even more true in a race like the KY Derby. Every year for almost all of these horses it is the first time they will be going 1 1/4, and for many it will turn out to be the last. Under the right circumstances a horse that is really more of miler may get a 1 1/8th, but that horse will usually be dead in the water at 1 1/4. In my opinion, this is also why very few horses move forward in the KY Derby. They simply aren\'t able to carry their speed or maintain their closing kick at 1 1/4. It takes extra reserves of stamina to get that additional 1/8th, and most horses these days aren\'t bred or trained for it because the owners and breeders want to recoup their money as fast as possible. That means racing at age 2, and breeding for speed and precocity. Imagine being a young teenager and being taught how to swim fast for a 1/4 of mile. All of your musculature and skeletal structure begins to adapt to this training. Then suddenly, you turn 18 and are expected to train for a few weeks and then swim a mile. Your body just isn\'t going to adapt that fast. Now imagine that your IQ is 50 and you have no comprehension of what distance even is and no idea about what is happening to you. You\'re just training as your told. So in addition to being able to physically handle the demands of the new distance, somehow mentally you are supposed to get all of this and understand that your next race is going to be very different than everything else you have known.
This is exactly what happens in the KY Derby, and it is another reason why the national average for winning favorites may be a little upwards of 35%, but in the KY Derby it is much lower.
I don\'t care how good of a handicapper you are. If you don\'t take into your heart that sometimes distance takes precedence over pattern you are going to lose bunch of money. And as it sits right now, in my opinion, unless I see something substantially different over the next few weeks, I would be willing to bet a LARGE amount of money that this is exactly the case with a horse like Noble\'s Promise. I don\'t care what his sheet looks like. To my eye, the way he fades in the lane and shuts down soon after the wire indicates he doesn\'t want any part of 1 1/4. His breeding would seem to agree with this. True, there are always horses who outrun their breeding and we never know for sure until they try the distance. These three year olds can also improve a bunch, in a hurry, and sometimes all it takes is a change in running style and WHAM - it\'s like the lights turned on. This could still happen with this horse, but I think it is highly unlikely.
I firmly believe this to be true of horses. I would even go out on a limb and say that a horse like Quality Road probably won\'t win at 1 1/4 at the Grade I level anywhere unless he faces a really short field of marginal horses. I\'ve seen him race enough now to know he\'s really more of miler. He even set a track record sprinting. It\'s a very rare horse that is going to do that and also win a GI at 1 1/4 or beyond. And I would look to play against Quality Road at that distance if I get the chance.
After playing this ever changing game pretty seriously for two decades or so, this is something I swear you can take to the bank. Sometimes distance will trump pattern. Especially at the classic distances. I guarantee it.
oh man here we go...
The numbers are what make the pattern,
> and the numbers by themselves are only numbers.
> Horses are living, breathing animals with
> preferred running styles and distances. If you
> take a horse like Bourban Bay, for example, and
> try running him at 5F on the grass - see what his
> number comes back at. Same thing goes the other
> way, try running a horse like Midnight Lute at 1
> 1/4 and see what his sheet turns out to look
> like.
I would completely trust these top trainers to point horses to a correct spot and using a horse like midnight lute who is the fastest sprinter of all time is REALLY extreme and have nothing to do with what i am saying. Especially when he has been trained to go one turn.
>
> Now those are extreme examples. But distance
> preferences for horses can be very subtle.
> Sometimes all it takes is an extra 1/8th of a mile
> and horse\'s performance will suffer.
Can you please give me an example? A one turn to one turn (ex: 5 f to 6F).. or a two turn to two turn example (8F to 9f) where a horse ran 1F or even 2F longer and couldnt get that distance. Im really curious about this.
They simply
> won\'t win unless they are facing an over matched
> field, get a perfect trip, have a bias aid them,
> etc., and I don\'t care what their pattern looks
> like. This is especially true at the classic
> distances of 1 1/4 and beyond, and even more true
> in a race like the KY Derby.
Once again give me an example of that extra furlong being too much where a horse couldnt get it.
Every year for
> almost all of these horses it is the first time
> they will be going 1 1/4, and for many it will
> turn out to be the last. Under the right
> circumstances a horse that is really more of miler
> may get a 1 1/8th, but that horse will usually be
> dead in the water at 1 1/4.
example please.
In my opinion, this
> is also why very few horses move forward in the KY
> Derby. They simply aren\'t able to carry their
> speed or maintain their closing kick at 1 1/4. It
> takes extra reserves of stamina to get that
> additional 1/8th, and most horses these days
> aren\'t bred or trained for it because the owners
> and breeders want to recoup their money as fast as
> possible.
Look at what you are saying! Simply pull up the archives and explain this to me... why do a MAJORITY of the horses who did go backwards like you say had either a backwards moving pattern entering the derby OR they bounced off the walls BASED ON PATTERN AND REST! IF what YOU say holds water THEN your opinion is that whoever did go backwards should be excused for THAT DISTANCE on THAT DAY.. by doing THAT then YOU are saying that the horse should run NEXT OUT with an effort that falls in line with all his other numbers... being that the ONE RACE (kentucky derby)was merely an excuse to not run. Look how many horses ran in the Derby.. went BACKWARDS or BOUNCED and came back to something in line on their next effort. And name them in response giving examples of what you are saying here.
That means racing at age 2, and
> breeding for speed and precocity. Imagine being a
> young teenager and being taught how to swim fast
> for a 1/4 of mile. All of your musculature and
> skeletal structure begins to adapt to this
> training. Then suddenly, you turn 18 and are
> expected to train for a few weeks and then swim a
> mile. Your body just isn\'t going to adapt that
> fast. Now imagine that your IQ is 50 and you have
> no comprehension of what distance even is and no
> idea about what is happening to you. You\'re just
> training as your told. So in addition to being
> able to physically handle the demands of the new
> distance, somehow mentally you are supposed to get
> all of this and understand that your next race is
> going to be very different than everything else
> you have known.
By you saying that the human is swimming 1/4 wouldnt you think that its trainer would bring the human back to a similar distance first time out? These horses who run at 2 have gone the distance already entering a layoff with a new year and some DO reach new tops first out.. so i cant even see any comparison with what you are talking about.. The trainer is going to point the horse in the right direction.
>
> This is exactly what happens in the KY Derby, and
> it is another reason why the national average for
> winning favorites may be a little upwards of 35%,
> but in the KY Derby it is much lower.
By bringing the money factor into this this with a betting favorite most people do not have the information we have. The public has plenty of times made a horse a favorite that wasnt the fastest horse coming in or who had that best pattern.. so that percentage means nothing especially when we personally wager a horse of the thoro numbers.
>
> I don\'t care how good of a handicapper you are.
> If you don\'t take into your heart that sometimes
> distance takes precedence over pattern you are
> going to lose bunch of money. And as it sits
> right now, in my opinion, unless I see something
> substantially different over the next few weeks, I
> would be willing to bet a LARGE amount of money
> that this is exactly the case with a horse like
> Noble\'s Promise. I don\'t care what his sheet
> looks like. To my eye, the way he fades in the
> lane and shuts down soon after the wire indicates
> he doesn\'t want any part of 1 1/4. His breeding
> would seem to agree with this. True, there are
> always horses who outrun their breeding and we
> never know for sure until they try the distance.
> These three year olds can also improve a bunch, in
> a hurry, and sometimes all it takes is a change in
> running style and WHAM - it\'s like the lights
> turned on. This could still happen with this
> horse, but I think it is highly unlikely.
Yea a 3-4 wide trip that was 3 points faster than LAL in the futurity, a second best effort running wide bc day and last out where he was wide once again losing ground. I can totally see him fading in the stretch with trips like THAT. The point is that in those races he ran faster than the other horses and you dont seem to trust the number for what it is
>
> I firmly believe this to be true of horses. I
> would even go out on a limb and say that a horse
> like Quality Road probably won\'t win at 1 1/4 at
> the Grade I level anywhere unless he faces a
> really short field of marginal horses. I\'ve seen
> him race enough now to know he\'s really more of
> miler. He even set a track record sprinting.
> It\'s a very rare horse that is going to do that
> and also win a GI at 1 1/4 or beyond. And I would
> look to play against Quality Road at that distance
> if I get the chance.
thats a pretty bold statement going against the fastest horse of all time going two turns.. whos going to beat him? Your horse with a bla bla sire with %20 whatever going a mile and a 1/4? that horse will be rested and primed each time he comes out... good luck with all that.
>
> After playing this ever changing game pretty
> seriously for two decades or so, this is something
> I swear you can take to the bank. Sometimes
> distance will trump pattern. Especially at the
> classic distances. I guarantee it.
give me examples!
NYC,
We all appreciate your passion for the game; however, you are really getting obnoxious. (I know, I am calling someone else obnoxious).
You never back down, never see another point of view, its all about you. When a man as respected and successful as Mr Jellish comes here and is kind enough to give you a very thoughtful and detailed response to your post, you can at least acknowledge his experience. You choose to continue to be argumentative and stubborn.
JB has also commented on your views, a man who is highly successful as a player and investor. Again, you choose to be argumentative and combative.
This board is littered by your posts. That isn\'t necessarily a bad thing, but your continued rigid thinking and combative posts are really tiresome. Could you possibly try to see things from another point of view?? Your demands of \"show me examples\" comes across as petty.
There are some very skilled players on this forum. I have mentioned 2 of them and there are others. A little humility wouldn\'t be a bad idea. Good luck at the windows.
P=Dub
I agree with your post in all regards.
I\'ve been betting horses since the 50\'s and have met a lot of players who are dogmatic in their views and refuse to consider alternative approaches. They tend to burn brightly for awhile, but invariably flame out early.
This game teaches humility to everyone (even those who are not cursed with self-awareness).
Albany
Great post Jellish.
Since this pattern \"discussion\" has become so spirited and even insightful in some areas I decided to take a trip to the archives and look at the pattern of the Derby winners the last 10 years. The number to the left of the horse\'s name is their 2yo top and the number on the far right is the figure from the Derby.
Here they are...
8-Mine That Bird 8-5-0(neg)
8-Big Brown 1-3(neg)-4(neg)
2-Street Sense 1-2-2(neg)
4-Barbaro 6-3-1-2(neg)
4-Giacomo 5-4-5-0
0-Smarty Jones 0-0-3(neg)-1(neg)-1(neg)
3-Funny Cide 3-3-1-1
8-War Emblem 8-10-1-1-0(neg)
15-Monarchos 7-3-0-3-0(neg)
6-Fu Peg 6-4-4-2-2
Jack,
Thanks for taking the time to do this. Very internesting.
Thanks
There are MANY examples. I think it will be more illuminating if you go back and find them yourself. It should be easy. All you have to do is look at Derby Runners. 1 1/4 is a completely different kettle of fish than 1 1/8th for most horses. Just ask any trainer. I won\'t even debate this with you.
Look, I\'m not trying to offend you in anyway. I think you\'ve made some decent posts on this board, and I think you contribute to helping people understand how to read sheets. It\'s fine with me if you disagree about the distance thing. But I would strongly suggest you go back through the Derby charts and look up the lifetime past performances of some of those runnners and you will see what I mean. You will find countless sprinter/miler type horses who were able to carry their speed or closing kick at 1 1/8th from time to time, but not at 1 1/4. Gayego is the first one that comes to my mind, but there are many others.
I am not saying that some of these sprinters miler types can\'t run ok in the derby. The best ones still try hard, sometimes they even hang on to hit the board. But they almost always move backwards on the sheets no matter what their pattern looks like. They simply can\'t give their best performance at 1 1/4 no matter where they are in their form cycle.
Albany:
If it was indeed you, great Fla Derby selection on the Rag board.
Great detective work/research on IB\'s Palm Meadows work.
Hey Guys
I dont mean to be obnoxious whatsoever.. i have a huge passion for the game and i question everything and attempt to learn as much as I can especially thru examples and using the past into the present. its a never ending life long lesson and we all learn things everyday. I do apologize to everyone on here though and il try not to come across as THAT guy even though i have a target on my head lol.
With that being said I look forward to examples that any can give with what they are saying. When we talk about patterns and certain situations that horses have been in (rest coming into a race, post positions that day, weight, etc.) we all use the past and present to give us a better idea and what may happen in the future. The one thing that most of these young horses have in common compared to much older horses is that they mostly have set pattern or are limited in abilities. By comparing each horse and seeing these patterns and thoro numbers its a universal thing that we can all see and look at and give examples.
When it comes to sire angles, workouts, etc. those are universal but to me theres no way of using those angles to identify how a horse may run next out. A horse may work out slower or much different than other horses.. a horse with a low percentage sire may win a huge race...and etc. A horse with a poor sire stat lets say running routes could very well involve many horses who had backwards patterns or bounces and that would effect the percentage ITM, TGI or Win %\'s.. even if its a bigger sample there are many things that are involved with a trainers decision to run a horse in a race. Again, im just asking for examples of ways to benefit from looking at those kind of angles rather than just the number and pattern an individual horse would run compared to others in that given race.
On a side note, thanks for the above jack.. Have you guys noticed that Rule has a similar line to Street Sense (from above) this year? Rule should be fresh Derby Day!
Based on the my timing and pattern factor I also had Street Sense that year to run big especially coming from the softer polytrack where he lost to Dominican by a bob.. most exciting ticket i ever had.. Street Sense gave me the pick 4 but i had Teuflesberg in there and it was paying $64k for $1! The worst is that he gets shipped 30 days after to new york and wins next out for fun lol thats how it goes!
\"The point is that in those races he ran faster than the other horses and you dont seem to trust the number for what it is\"
NYC,
Ahem, wider is not always faster,it\'s wider,all part of each races dynamics. Sometimes, wider is critical, sometimes wider is mitigated by other race dynamics and not as relevant as you think. From the standpoint of the methodology, it must always be included. Do you know the difference between methodology fast and racetrack fast? On occasion,they are not the same.
Mike
NYC,
The passion is great, thanks for the thoughts.
Anyway, one thing I would point you to for an example of how distance matters is the fact that only 8% of horses run new TG tops in the Derby.
There are some other factors involved included 20 horse field, etc but most of them have already run in 12-14 horses fields before the derby and the ground loss caused by all of the extra horses in the derby is obviously factored into the numbers so the main variable in the Derby numbers is the extra distance so the fact that only 8% of horses run new tops when they are going 1 1/4 should be all of the \"example\" that you need.
I hope you are right on Rule. I know you are wrong on Noble\'s Promise, not a snowball\'s chance in hell that horse goes 1 1/4 with the same closing kick that he has going 1 1/16.
I think nyc is my wife, JB can you check this out please?
I understand that wider isnt always faster but in that situation bc day, another horses ground saved (who ran slower in the race) beat both LAL and NP and it was faster. Also happened in the futurity.. NP ran about a 3 to LALs ground saving 6 and lost. Im saying that in those races specifically that NP didnt stop in the stretch because he couldnt get the distance that mjellish is saying he cant get. I am saying that its deceiving that he is \"slowing down\" because hes actually not.. NP is running FASTER BUT also running a further distace than other hores in those 2 examples with poor trips which in turn is the reason for him losing. We cant take away from the horses abilities or pattern because he lost a race. The thoro number takes in to consideration within the number and the next time out from that point we hope for a better trip with a good chance to get better odds because of public perception if the pattern, rest and number suggest he can do so in that next given race.
ny , With all respect - and I guess I\'m passing the torch here because I thought I was about hard headed as they come , but my pattern read on Ice Box made me uncomfortable with him at the price . Even at 40-1 it seemed like an underlay from my point of view , imo an extraneous or superfluous play .
Personally I\'d rather wait for a situation where a horse would only and potentially need to come forward a point or two at best for a score in the 15- 1 to 20-1 range . However , if the race was seen by many as an opportunity to take a stab - congratulations to them ! They had a good day at the office .
Part of that percentage though are horses such as Smarty Jones, Eight Belles, Curlin, SUmmer Bird... etc..
Lets look at summer bird... he ran backwards going a 1 and 1/4 mile inthe derby running a 2.. BUT 3 races leading up to the BC last year were at 1 and 1/4 and were a neg 2, neg 4 and a 1 on bc day. How can you say that THIS horse couldnt get a mile and a 1/4?
Oh look at curlin! he went backwards derby day to a 0 but ran a negative 4 bc day on the same surface.
Lets look at Big Brown who ran a top derby day of a negative 2 BUT running the same distance bc day and ran a 3!
The point about to 2 horses above that I am saying is that if a horse is developing and going forward then it doesnt matter the distance.. a horse at THAT level of racing at 8F or 9F CAN get the 10F and run even better.
A horse like BB ran a top and then ran terrible BC day.. why? easy after running two top efforts that year in the negatives (no matter what kind of rest) he reacted! not cause he couldnt get distance but because his pattern suggested this.
The %8 you are talking about also includes freak winners but also does not include horses who have paired or have been in line with their patterns. Which is significant. A horse who bounces such as bellamy road or keyed entry on derby day you cant just say, oh he ran bad cause it was a mile and a 1/4 the horse bounced for a reason and distance had nothing to do w that.. he wouldve done the same at a mile. same going the opposite way.. u cant say oh a horse who ran great going a mile and a 1/4 will ALWAYS be a great runner.. horses run in and out of form all the time.. when u are at the top level all these horses are trained to be able to run pretty much consistent within their indivudual line.. they will jump forward but back too when certain things come about.
If a horse like Summer Bird and Curlin can stay in line with their efforts and run better in time what gives you any indication that a horse like Nobles Promise couldnt do the same?
nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey Guys
> I dont mean to be obnoxious whatsoever. The one thing that most
> of these young horses have in common compared to
> much older horses is that they mostly have set
> pattern or are limited in abilities. By comparing
> each horse and seeing these patterns and thoro
> numbers its a universal thing that we can all see
> and look at and give examples.
> Based on the my timing and pattern factor I also
> had Street Sense that year to run big especially
> coming from the softer polytrack where he lost to
> Dominican by a bob.. most exciting ticket i ever
> had.. Street Sense gave me the pick 4 but i had
> Teuflesberg in there and it was paying $64k for
> $1! The worst is that he gets shipped 30 days
> after to new york and wins next out for fun lol
> thats how it goes!
The 3 year old redboard is, to me at least, obnoxious.
As one of the most overspoken posters on this board, and probably one with the
lowest ratio of products purchased to words posted, let me say that you have
become quite hypergraphic in your obsession with pattern methodology.
1) Most Derby starters in this new fragile age have what 7 lifetime starts?
Wouldn\'t I rather rely on pattern methodology when there is a larger sample?
Does a Derby colt with 5 lifetime starts actually have a \"pattern\"?
2) JB mentioned the fact that Derby colt patterns are tricky because a lot of
trainers are engineering a slight regression in the final prep. (Your Street Sense
was a good example of this and many on the board were commenting in 2007 that
Nafzger\'s preparation of SS was similar to his preparation of Unbridled in 1990).
3) If you would like to see an example of breeding in relation to distance-
ability, look at the TG Sire stat for D\'Wildcat, sire of D\'Funnybone. DW has sired
101 runners which made it to the races, making 895 starts among them.
Of the 895 starts, 724 were made at distances shorter than one mile, with a very
acceptable 18% win percentage.
The 171 starts by the get of DW at distances at one mile or over produced 16
wins, a 9% win percentage.
What is striking is not so much the difference in win percentage, but the
relatively small percentage of DW\'s offspring which even were tried at the longer
distances. Not surprisingly, of DW\'s 10 lifetime SWs, 9 were winners at the less
than one mile distance.
The game is great. The Tricky trained D\'Funnybone could of course go on to have
success at the longer distances despite his seemingly sire limited pedigree.
What also makes the game great is the anticipation of ambushing D\'Funnybone at a
short price if and when he tries a route of ground, no matter how good his number
or pattern power is. Just the way I like to look at it, been wrong before.
.
the fact that 8% of the horses run new tops in the Derby means that you will be able to come up with 8% of the horses for you to make your point.
I can use the other 92% of to make mine.
I am not sure how into pedigrees you are but are you really asking me why sons of Birdstone and Smart Strike are more likely to run their numbers going 1 1/4 than a son of Cuvee?
Please tell me that you are either kidding or that you are really Chuckles the Clown who has come back in another life?
What also makes the game great is the anticipation of ambushing D\'Funnybone at a
short price if and when he tries a route of ground, no matter how good his number
or pattern power is. Just the way I like to look at it, been wrong before.
Bee,
The connections and I agree with you but will still give him a shot in the Preakness IF he continues to do well in the coming weeks. Tricky,desperate after Radiohead popped an unadvertised quarter before the fla derby,tried to hustle Paul and team to race D\'Funnybone in the Fla Derby.
Mike
> 1) Most Derby starters in this new fragile age
> have what 7 lifetime starts?
> Wouldn\'t I rather rely on pattern methodology when
> there is a larger sample?
> Does a Derby colt with 5 lifetime starts actually
> have a \"pattern\"?
Yes most of these young horses at the top level have healthy forging patterns. At certain times when horses reach a certain level/numbrt they sometimes bounce giving us as an indication that maybe THAT certain level of racing is too much at that given time. Sometimes horses can get thru those top numbers. Either way every single horse has a different pattern and/or development and racing situation is different.
>
> 2) JB mentioned the fact that Derby colt patterns
> are tricky because a lot of
> trainers are engineering a slight regression in
> the final prep. (Your Street Sense
> was a good example of this and many on the board
> were commenting in 2007 that
> Nafzger\'s preparation of SS was similar to his
> preparation of Unbridled in 1990).
Thank you and I also project Rule doing something similar to Street Sense
>
> 3) If you would like to see an example of breeding
> in relation to distance-
> ability, look at the TG Sire stat for D\'Wildcat,
> sire of D\'Funnybone. DW has sired
> 101 runners which made it to the races, making 895
> starts among them.
>
> Of the 895 starts, 724 were made at distances
> shorter than one mile, with a very
> acceptable 18% win percentage.
>
> The 171 starts by the get of DW at distances at
> one mile or over produced 16
> wins, a 9% win percentage.
>
> What is striking is not so much the difference in
> win percentage, but the
> relatively small percentage of DW\'s offspring
> which even were tried at the longer
> distances. Not surprisingly, of DW\'s 10 lifetime
> SWs, 9 were winners at the less
> than one mile distance.
>
> The game is great. The Tricky trained D\'Funnybone
> could of course go on to have
> success at the longer distances despite his
> seemingly sire limited pedigree.
>
> What also makes the game great is the anticipation
> of ambushing D\'Funnybone at a
> short price if and when he tries a route of
> ground, no matter how good his number
> or pattern power is. Just the way I like to look
> at it, been wrong before.
>
What i would say about this is we would have to wait until the time comes where D\'Funny races a route and see who hes racing against him at that given time.. clearly if he ran against horses that were running very very slow we couldnt expect that to happen.. IF that situation does come about where there are other horses that may beat him AND hes a short price then the odds will dictate most of that decision. It would be a similar situation just like Blind Luck last out. I predicted BL not winning going the 2 turns based on the fractions being different and her closing even though she had the best numbers. The idea though was that I got the odds to play that angle.. just as we would with D\'Funny
Miff:
Actually, a poster elsewhere mentioned Radiohead\'s hoof problems before the race.
If DF goes in the Preakness, the short priced favorite scenario is out of the
equation. Would imagine that the plan is to prep him in a one turn mile for the
Preakness.
Have nothing against DF, though his Swale was impressive.
Bee,
The connections of DF are racing sharp guys who feel that their horse may be distance challenged. The will prep once before the Preakness and if all is perfect, take a shot.The ultimate goal is to get a stallion deal for DF since they already turned down a couple of million for the horse. I told them to take the money,they declined.
Mike
What makes you think NP cant run a negative 3 next out and bounce a point derby day and still win? just as an example.
im not asking about all of cuvees or birdstones sires.. im asking about NP (one horse) and asking why it is not possible for this one animal to run in line with his pattern and top number, just like Summer Bird and Curlin did, which would be competitive in this years crop on derby day? IF he ran in line with his top efforts at 8F and 9F like he has proven why cant he go 10F?? It makes no sense to me.
The 8% is based on a horse running a top effort in the derby.. what makes you think (as an example) that NP next out couldnt run a negative 3 and then go backwards a point or even pair on derby day and not win? This has happened more recently in history with wins from smarty jones and funny cide.
Also important to say that until Derby day comes its hard to even say that a horse like NP or LAL could even be used until we see what they run next out prior to the big race.. they may run out of their minds and could be bounce candidates.. same thing goes for Esky or any horse who will still run a prep this year.
D\'Funny not being able to run great in the Preakness may open up the door for a horse like Ibbayee (whatever that horses name is, that pletcher horse) to develop into a solid 2 turn horse. That horse looks like it can run all day.
NYC-
Look,
You have your opinion that a good pattern trumps distance, even at 1 1/4, and I can see that nothing will probably change that. I believe you are dead wrong, but what the hell, it\'s your money.
But since it is your money, here\'s what I propose. Let\'s see what happens between now and the KY Derby. If I still feel the way I do about Noble\'s Promise, and you still feel the way you do then I propose a bet. You can have Noble\'s Promise. I will pick a horse that I think will finish ahead of him, and I will let you exclude 3 from the race. So for example, you can tell me no ESK, no LAL, no Rule, whatever you want. Whichever pick finishes better that guy wins the bet. We can discuss the amount later and in private. I\'ll even give you my cell phone number, and we can put the money in an escrow account before the race.
As an aside, I\'m not exactly sure how to take it when you post before a race saying that Amen Hallelujah is going to run a track record, but post after the race that you played her underneath in an EX. I know how tough this game is and I know that I can\'t always pick winners. And when I miss I take my lumps. Based upon what I have actually seen you post here on the board about who you liked and how you were going to wager BEFORE a race, I would say as a show better you are down money. I always watch the pools in any race I am going to play, and one of them happened to be a race that you said you were laying down $4k to show. I watched the show pool and the only flash where the pool on that horse ever went up by 4K was the second to last one, and that was barely over $4k. True, it\'s possible that you may have been the only one betting show on that horse at that time, but I doubt it. You may also have put your bet in over time in $500 increments or something, which is entirely possible. But regardless of whether you are winning and betting as you say, you have done a pretty good job of doping out some decent horses based their sheets. And I give credit where credit is due for that. You also do a pretty good job of talking TG #\'s and patterns.
But if I am going to be honest, I should tell you that your posts don\'t strike me as coming from someone who has been playing horses seriously for very long. This is a tough, tough game. And any regular player is going to take his lumps, even a show better. While show betting is relatively safe, it is much tougher to make money that way. If you ask any professional player they will tell you that there aren\'t many that grind out much of a living by show betting. In fact, most pro players don\'t tend to grind it out at all. The win or lose a bit, but they keep swinging for the big windfalls and when they hit they hit big. I will lay down $10k-$50k if I see something I really like, and I\'m not even a big better compared to some of the people I\'ve hung around with. And not a one of them has ever made much money by playing it safe in the show pool. So I think you have some lessons to learn at the windows. But I also think you add to the discussion on this board.
I don\'t have time to argue my point about distance vs. patterns with you, and you appear to have strong convictions that differ from mine. So let\'s just pick this discussion back up the week before the KY Derby and put out money where our keystrokes are. Sound good?
And keep the good sheet discussions coming!
I dont know if you were there for the discussions about playing horses for a living on here but my wagers that are bigger shows are placed on an online site so that i can get a rebate back on my wager. That money does not hit the actual pools. I have played horses and used sheets for about 10 years. I actually started off with the Rags and my preference changed after using both for a few years as I personally find the thoros are more accurate and a better product overall. I have gotten to be more of a serious player over the last several years taking this to the next level and this is my income and living.
I have been successful to date and I hope it continues. Im very happy making $1500-2500 a week playing only a few races and remain discipline with my show wagers and selections.
Anyway, no reason to go all crazy with personal wagers. As I have said, NP may very well be a toss in the derby. Whenever a race comes I look at everything for that given day and base my opinions on whether the horses on that day will run. Most of what we are talking about now is projection or assumptions for we do not know if any horses will get injured, run big then are bounce candidates, throw in a clunker, etc. prior to the derby. If anything comes up that may look like something though il get back to you for fun but I wish us all great luck as we move on and i look forward to everyones posts as always.
As far as that Amen post i was being sarcastic bc i LOVED that horse and wound up doing an exacta because i figured pletchers horse would pick up the scraps (meaning get an easy 2nd in the race).. i boxed it smaller just cause the odds and payout the other way was big just in case. I had it a 2 horse race either way.. i also stated whoever picked Christine Daae \"good luck\" because that horse looked terrible going in with such bad move last out and figured not to run good.
Richie:
Thanks, the Ice Box situation was right up my alley. Luckily, I cashed a large double using the obvious winner in the previous race (D\'Funnybone) and a small super (which wasn\'t that hard for me since the second horse ran well against Ice Box in prior races). Sometimes things just turn out right.
Although there were many angles pointing to Ice Box, the fact that he had the co-fastest 1/2 mile work at Palm Meadows since 2/24 was important to me. That was co-fastest among over 750 horses! He was sitting on \"go\" for a trainer who really knows how to crank up a 3yo in the Spring.
By the way, the time hit by Ice Box was surpassed by Friend or Foe on 3/24. That one may be worth watching.
Albany