1 - Dynamic Range - ultra consistent and while looking at his pattern i saw those last 2 figures i was wondering why this horse looked a little off to me. Looks like that 6 top effort THREE races back has cause this one to move backwards twice and with only 27 days off id expect the same. I wouldnt play this one until he made some kind of forward move again.
2 - High Court Drama - running better as the gappyness continues but it takes the horse a long time to get back to a top number. Bounced 3 points last out and with 55 days off has plenty of rest to run some kind of effort. Doesnt seem like it will be a top effort so i will say it be consistent in the 4-5 range. 3-1 ML doesnt offer that much value here. Il pass on a win wager and at most hes a use underneath in exotics.
3 - Bourbon Bay - nice top last out and at about 4 to 1 it wouldve been a nice play LAST time out.. but this time at a huge favorite with a good chance to bounce I will pass.
4 - Obrigado - in line with last years efforts but a tad slower with the 4.5 effort. Getting older and id expect a pair here at best.
5 - Sudden War - something seems to have gone wrong last year but whatever it was the horse is back to top shape. id draw a line under both recent 5s and say that hes a new, fresh and healthy horse this year. the 4 weeks off the pair is very encouraging to me and im expecting a new top here in today race. 6 to 1 is nice odds to do it!
6 - Lease of Life - quadruple paired 3.75 efforts and has 27 days off. key thing here is that he hasnt raced a 3rd off the layoff race in forever and when he last did he went backwards 3 points. even more significant that now hes racing a mile and a half which hes never done before. Two recent top efforts, ok rest, going this far 1st time and showing a bounce last time this situation happened going shorter will leave me to pass on this one going into tomorrows race.
7 - Unusual Suspect - after every significant top effort (3-5) this horse flows in the 6-7 range so I will expect that again tomorrow. That doesnt seem like it will do it so i will pass.
8 - Romp - consistent within the 6-9 range and too slow with no reason to think he will jump to new efforts here so il pass
9 - Quasicobra - has gone backwards since that 5 on poly and something seems to have gone way wrong with him. il pass.
10 - Unusual Smoke - ran his best turf effort ever 9 days ago and I would think he would need rest after such an effort especially going and mile and a half. I would use maybe underneath for a little piece but I dont think he will be able to win this one.
overall - in my opinion, this race seems pretty straight forward. the two faves are underlays based on the above analysis. some others are too slow or off form and the only horse i can see that has a great shot to move forward based on rest, being fresh, and pattern is the 5 horse and at 6 to 1, Sudden War is my pick. Good Luck!
$5.20 to show!!!! =O lol!! i love it! 3 ran huge and the 5 probably paired.. everyone else was just terrible other than the 8