Some important races today for a lot reasons. I\'ve committed to a Father/Daughter day so will have to catch the replays, but thought I would chime in a few opinions.
Can\'t play against Rachel Or Zenyatta today with any degree of confidence, although I think Rachel would have been vulnerable to a tougher field. For me, races to watch only.
The Rebel looks like a tough race. First on dirt for Lookin At Lucky, and I don\'t think he is a lock by any stretch as the favorite. Dublin looks tough but he still looks like a big, green horse to me. If he has grown up and figured out how to relax and make his run I think he runs a new top and wins this. That being said, he probably still will go off as an underlay and is likely to get a wide trip. There are question marks, especially on the pedigree side, about Uh Oh Bango and Noble\'s promise but it wouldn\'t be a huge surprise to see either them run well either. So I just see this as a tough race to find any value or try bet with any confidence. For me, another one to watch only.
I think Schoolyard Dreams may get overlooked in the Tampa Derby and could offer some value as a key horse. He looks like a horse that is about to make a forward move, and his current top is already fast enough to contend. He also gets 6 pounds from Super Saver. If he avoids a wide trip I think he will be right there.
I like American Lion in the San Felipe as a key horse. He paired his two year old top in his first start at 3, should get a great trip behind the speed and I think you may get 7/2 or better on him. Interactif should have won his last and seemed to lose focus in the stretch. That race seemed to take a lot out of the Bim Bam, the horse who beat him, as that one came back and bounced in a dull performance. Sidney\'s Candy and Caracortado will take some money and look beatable to me as well.
Good luck today to all.
Agree with your TB Derby pick.. Going to try #3 Gleam of Hope to make a big forward move here as well and maybe he can hit the board with the #5.
Good luck.
that is the worst photo loss ever. good pick, good race.
I agree about the photo, but the ride on the seven was a mess in the first place. Maragh (great rider usually) had that horse cut inside three lanes and he still pulled forward with only a half a furlong to go to get there. Should have been a clearer victory IMHO. Any horse with that kind of move after having been on the front most of the way has my attention...
Leamas
What a day of racing, eh?
I don\'t think the ride on the Odysseus was bad. Jock did what he could with the horse. He was asking him on the turn and the horse wasn\'t moving. He then switched leads and found another gear but wouldn\'t go through the hole that was sort of opening and closing on the outside. When he dove down and got room on the inside he managed to just get there, and I mean just get there. To be honest, I thought the ride on my pick was more questionable. Horse seemed a little rank going into the first turn and went wider than he had to go. Then in my opinion the Jock asked him to run too soon, being forced to swoop up very wide all the way around the 2nd turn, but what a turn a foot he showed when asked. After that I thought he gutted it out pretty well down the stretch. Thank god for daddy daughter day or I would still be ruing that photo. That\'s as tough a loss as a person could possibly take. My overall impression of this race is that it was very, very strong.
Can\'t say the same for the Rebel. Time wasn\'t especially quick, although I concede there was a lot of ground lost. But Noble\'s promise got an almost perfect trip. Lucky got a wide run on the second turn, and he showed nice athleticism on the backstretch when he more or less hurdled the kick out from Noble\'s Promise. Looked to me like he lost at least a length, but I think most horses would have lost more and taken longer to regain their momentum. Dublin got his usual, wide trip and I\'m not sure how much to blame on the jock. But if I owned that horse I would be shopping for a new jock anyway. Why take a chance... Overall impression of this race is that Lucky is more athletic than I thought, showed good heart to win the photo, but he doesn\'t look fast enough to be a derby winner to me yet.
San Felipe was very weak. Very, very soft early fractions. I don\'t think the closers had much of a chance. American Lion got an almost perfect trip and just didn\'t fire. Interactif ran very well for second. We may see him the Bluegrass. Probably best if he gets a little time off and goes back to the grass though. I give Caracortado a complete pass on this one. It just didn\'t set up for him. There was no way he was going run down the winner after those soft early splits on the shortest path around. Off the top of my head I would probably lean towards downgrading Sidney\'s Candy\'s performance and would be looking to play against him when he runs back.
And Rachel... Damn. Had there been just one horse I could have taken seriously in that race I think I would still by counting my money. I don\'t see how anyone could have played too hard against her with anyone in that field with utmost confidence. If there just could have been one horse that looked like they could throw a 2 or better... and I was ready to go all in against her. Man... Still, I would contend that her race was probably better than it looked. She went pretty quick early for the day and had every right to tire afterwards in the stretch.
Z ran her typical race in good final time and looked very good doing it. What else can you say...
Time for Asmussen to tighten the screws on Rachel. Will have to see how she trains and how the field shapes up for the Apple Blossom. This could be setting up as Z at Even Money or so, Rachel at 9/5, and everyone else 10-1 or more. If Rachel seems to move forward and begins training lights out, things could be very interesting. If not, the race is still on dirt, which could make things even more interesting.
Looking forward to the FL Derby.
Beyers already up on a few of the races:
Zardana 101
Lookin at Lucky 97
Odysseus 93
Dublin needs less distance not more IMO.Not getting sucked in by his wide wide two turn races even if he does eventually get back to his 2yo top from the Hopeful.Could be a really good sprinter if they don\'t burn him up chasing 10f\'s.Can\'t get past that Classy Mirage on the bottom.
Odysseus washy again and he doesn\'t show that Derby winning turn of foot.Still,he keeps getting better from race to race and it looks like more distance will be good for him.Schoolyard Dreams has the turn of foot but looks like a miler on the bottom of the pedigree.Same connections got Musket Man stretched out pretty good last year and some nice checks so who knows?
I think Beyer has that wrong. I have the TB Derby as being faster than the Rebel. There was significant ground loss in both races. I\'ll be curious to see what JB comes up with.