Can\'t verify the accuracy of this as it came from Daily Racing Form, but Rachel worked 6F today with the following splits:
13
12:20
12:40
12:20
12:20
12
6F time 1:14
gallop out another furlong 13 for 7F in 1:27
If this is accurate, reading between the lines, she relaxed early, finished very strong and the extra gallop out in 13 is a farily good indicator that she is probably getting close to racing shape. From the sounds of it they are going to give her a harder 6F work next week. I wouldn\'t pay too much attention to the final time of that work, but pay close attention to the gallop out. If she goes fast early her gallop out time may be the best indicator that we can get of her overall condition. Going to see if I can find someone down there to clock it. She will be an overwhelming favorite in her comeback race and I, for one, would like to know as much about her condition as possible. Can\'t possibly play her, but if I can find a reason to play against her it could be fat city.
Saw the video of the work, and thought she looked great. Little or no wasted motion as she glides over the ground.
Appeared to me that Rachel came out of the bridle the last hundred yards or so and was noticably on a very loose rein. This indicates a horse short on conditioning and if so the Assmussen camp will adjust accordingly, or try.
Of note is that she has been working every six days and the move on 2/12/10 only two worked because of an awful track. Rachel worked in one o three and change and her stablemate, a Texas bred, went in one o two flat.
While fillies are easier to get fit than colts and there are a lot of oats to be eaten before they meet...I would be very surprised if Rachel holds off the big mare. BBB
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
She will be an
> overwhelming favorite in her comeback race and I,
> for one, would like to know as much about her
> condition as possible. Can\'t possibly play her,
> but if I can find a reason to play against her it
> could be fat city.
Given that Rachel can likely beat anyone except Quality Road and Zenyatta if she\'s so much as 80% fit, betting against her in her comeback is just too much of a stretch for me, regardless of the possible payoff.
\"While fillies are easier to get fit than colts and there are a lot of oats to be eaten before they meet...I would be very surprised if Rachel holds off the big mare\"
Hi Bell,
You having a few with dinner?. Z has no answer for the Rachel of last year. Just a matter of IF Rachel comes back as good. Not many posts here about the fact that Rachel was only a 3 YR OLD FILLY last year when accomplishing unprecedented things in racing(and running scary speed figs).How bout if she\'s a little stronger as a 4yr old, which is quite possible.
Mike
The Texas bred was one of mine, a two-time stakes winning filly with a couple of 6\'s as a 2yo, who was 8 days from her seasonal debut. She was a lot further along than Rachel.
Steve trains and has trained a lot of horses I\'m involved with. a) They all work VERY slow, and b) as anyone can see from the trainer stats, he\'s a lot better second off a layoff than the time before.
On the larger question-- I\'ve been tied up with the Rachel case so I haven\'t ben posting much, but this is a Thoro-Graph board, and it\'s time we got this discussion back on track. To get Z to beat R you either have to get R not to run her top (neg 4 1/2), or Z to run more than 3 points better than she has ever run. Now, you may be able to make the case for either of those things, but that\'s what it\'s about-- not running anyone down.
Any case made on comparitives on TG numbers from different surfaces is flawed to begin with.
Aside from everything else, a) Z ran the same figure in her one try on dirt that she did in her synth efforts, and b) there haven\'t been a whole lot of fillies that could run neg 5\'s. (Like, name one).
Cushion is not Pro-Ride or Poly, it\'s effectively dirt. Her three tries on that stuff are right in line as well. Zenyatta gets lots of credit for being very good (and very consistent) on all surfaces but there\'s no reason to think she will sprout wings and suddenly get 6-7 lengths faster at age six. So if she\'s going to beat Rachel it\'s going to be because Rachel doesn\'t run her race.
What is Assmussen 2nd off the Layoff. I have wondered that myself.
And second off the layoff after a 180 day plus layoff.
Attached is the Thoro-Graph sheet for Rachel Alexandra. Asmussen\'s profile 2nd off the layoff is shown.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To get Z to beat R you either have to get R not
> to run her top (neg 4 1/2), or Z to run more than
> 3 points better than she has ever run. Now, you may
> be able to make the case for either of those things,
> but that\'s what it\'s about -- not running anyone down.
Wish I could have come up with what you wrote, JB -- I needed it about 3 months ago.
I\'ve been hearing this \"Zenyatta can go faster if she needs to\" crappola for a couple of months now (from elsewhere, not here), and I keep thinking, Zenyatta doesn\'t win by a whole lot as it is -- if she has to catch someone that *isn\'t* puking during the last 100 yards of the race (i.e., Rachel), just how much faster can Z run and still hit the wire first? What is Z going to do, come home in :21 and change?
That\'s exactly right in my opinion. I believe slow early, fast late race shapes can create havoc with final figures and times. But a horse can only go so fast at the end of the race regardless of what they do early. If they are 5 lengths off the leader and come home a final quarter in 23 flat they may pass everyone. But if they are 12 lengths off the leader that same 23 flat probably won\'t do it. ESPECIALLY if the leader can go fast early and STILL come home in 24 or so.
Now Rachel can obviously lay down a blistering early pace and still come home quicker than she should be able to. This is why she is an absolute freak of nature in my opinion. From what I can tell, she is the best since Ruffian and that was a little before my time. So to my mind, Rachel\'s ability to go fast both early and late will put Z at a distinct disadvantage. If Rachel runs her race, Z is going to have to be closer early if she expects to run Rachel down. She can\'t come home in 22 flat to make up 10 lengths. So she is going to have to change her style, and I don\'t think she can expend more energy early and still come home in 23 and change.
All this being said, this next start is probably as vulnerable as Rachel has been in over a year. Remember, they moved that Oaklawn race back a week just to give her extra time to get ready because the trainer had concerns about having her ready to fire her best race by THEN. So what does that say about where she will be in 11 days?
It will be interesting to see how the field shapes up. I bet against this filly in the Preakness and that cost me. I didn\'t dare bet against her after that, and I can\'t take the short money to play with her. Looking back, I would still do it the same way all over again... a 3 year old filly coming off a negative 4 on 2 weeks rest from the 13 post at Pimlico against the colts after switching barns??
I am a huge fan of Rachel and sentimentally I am therefore routing for her. But she is not undefeated. There really isn\'t anything at stake here. I don\'t think she is going to fire much more than a 0 here. She may not even do that. Depending upon the field that day she may still be good enough to win. But if there is at least one legit threat to her the rubber band may have to come off for this one. She will be single on most exotic multi-race wagers...
Also, if she were to lose her first time back I wonder what would happen to the future bets and the odds on race day. Assuming a roughly even money proposition vs. Z, if Rachel trains forwardly, I would go ALL IN on her to beat Z. Those figures are legit.
Maybe I won\'t have to work this year.
man you guys overanalyze everything. the number is the number and we have to wait and see if rachel runs an effort \"in line\" with her previous efforts. as far as i am concerned shes coming back off of almost a 5 point bounce last out and although that was months ago no one knows what she will run until she runs it after this huge layoff. Any effort between a 0 and neg 4 would be a good sign in my opinion. At the same time, i wouldnt be surprised if she ran a negative or positive 4 though.
You guys remember a horse by the name of Flower Alley? Horse ran great towards the end of its 3 year old campaign and then came out like a Donkey at 4 years old. She could very well be like that, who knows only time will tell. All this talk is just bla bla bla.
Mike,
That\'s a good point.
Rachel was foaled 1-29-2006 which made her a very young 3 year old filly last year. Even this year, she just turned 4.
Z was foaled 10-29-2004. When she won the BC Classic last year in November, she had just turned 5 the week before. She doesn\'t actually turn 6 until this October.
Not as much of an actual age difference as some think.
nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> man you guys overanalyze everything.
>
> You guys remember a horse by the name of Flower
> Alley? Horse ran great towards the end of its 3
> year old campaign and then came out like a Donkey
> at 4 years old. She could very well be like that,
> who knows only time will tell.
Hang on, lemme write this bon mot down, in case I forget it.
WOW.
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike,
> That\'s a good point.
>
> Rachel was foaled 1-29-2006 which made her a very
> young 3 year old filly last year. Even this year,
> she just turned 4.
>
> Z was foaled 10-29-2004. When she won the BC
> Classic last year in November, she had just turned
> 5 the week before. She doesn\'t actually turn 6
> until this October.
>
> Not as much of an actual age difference as some
> think.
Is Zenyatta a Southern Hemisphere foal? I don\'t have her sheet or PPs in front of me, but I always assumed she was a Kentucky-bred. For her to be foaled in October, she either had to be born in the Southern Hemisphere, or had to be a preposterously pre-mature birth. Maybe i have missed this all along, but if she is an October foal, then that would explain the late start and also her career should be viewed slightly differently.
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> smalltimer Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Mike,
> > That\'s a good point.
> >
> > Rachel was foaled 1-29-2006 which made her a
> very
> > young 3 year old filly last year. Even this
> year,
> > she just turned 4.
> >
> > Z was foaled 10-29-2004. When she won the BC
> > Classic last year in November, she had just
> turned
> > 5 the week before. She doesn\'t actually turn 6
> > until this October.
> >
> > Not as much of an actual age difference as some
> > think.
>
> Is Zenyatta a Southern Hemisphere foal? I don\'t
> have her sheet or PPs in front of me, but I always
> assumed she was a Kentucky-bred. For her to be
> foaled in October, she either had to be born in
> the Southern Hemisphere, or had to be a
> preposterously pre-mature birth. Maybe i have
> missed this all along, but if she is an October
> foal, then that would explain the late start and
> also her career should be viewed slightly
> differently.
Just checked the Breeders Cup Archives, According to the sheet, she is April 1, 2004, so I don\'t know where the October 29 idea came from unless it is an April fools joke in honor of her TG Birthday.
i mean people are saying that shes 4 now and will run better than ever.. we dont kno that. my pattern on her is that she bounced big last out and no one can give a full proof read of what she will do next out. flower alley came out 1 point slower than the previous years top having rest and was 4 years old as well. did nothing but go backwards from that top bc day effort.
Flower Alley comparison to Rachel??? Rachels last race was months ago so coming off a bounce is irrelevant to her next start.
bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Given that Rachel can likely beat anyone except
> Quality Road and Zenyatta if she\'s so much as 80%
> fit, betting against her in her comeback is just
> too much of a stretch for me, regardless of the
> possible payoff.
Have to agree with you on that one..She is too tactical to play against normal horses..If she was a one dimensional type I could take a chance at beating her but she can go to the front or rate a little which puts her at a big time advantage. If you ask me I would be looking to beat Z first time out as she will be one year older and is at that pace disadvantage and there is always that BC bounce.
Also one other question..I may be missing something but every time I look at a race at Oaklawn Park, being wide and being a closer seems to be a disadvantage why do I see a lot of posts about it being a fair track. I know Z won there before but can anyone see her running down Rachel on that track ...The announcer says \"and here they come into the short stretch at Oaklawn Park\" every time they go around the far turn..Does that alone not give Rachel the advantage
\"the number is the number and we have to wait and see\"
nyc,
The whole point is to figure the number out prior to the race last time I checked.Ironically enough though and it\'s a small sample,but according to Rachels
sire she could slow down a point this year.I\'m a big fan of hoss racing so personally I\'d like to see her run even bigger neg #\'s.
mjs
I may be mistaken, but, I think that \"short stretch\" call refers to mile races at OP, which begin and end at the sixteenth pole.
A 3yo filly that..\"bounces\" to a 0 in her 8th graded stakes race in 7 months. If she\'s vulnerable it will be next weekend not in the Apple Blossom IMO.
Flighted Iron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"the number is the number and we have to wait and
> see\"
>
> nyc,
>
> The whole point is to figure the number out prior
> to the race last time I checked.Ironically enough
> though and it\'s a small sample,but according to
> Rachels
> sire she could slow down a point this year.I\'m a
> big fan of hoss racing so personally I\'d like to
> see her run even bigger neg #\'s.
>
> mjs
It is not just a small sample but a skewed sample if you are referring to Medaglia D\'Oro\'s TGI for 4 yos. Since she is in his first crop, his 4 yos have only raced in January and February so far. Presumably, those are the two slowest months for a 4 yo crop. Although nothing is certain, one would expect his average 4yo performance to come down once the last 10 months of the 4 yo year are in the record books. Assuming she is able to come out and throw repeated negative numbers, that may be enough to bring that average down.
wooow what did i come to here? lemme just try to be as organized as possible here and maybe i can make myself more clear! heres some things..
1. a horse who runs a $10,000 claimer or a $10 trillion race means crap to me.. i dont care if a horse ran in the derby, the Cap, the haskell, the classic or ANY RACE.. what matters to me is that horses PATTERN, ODDS, and number power in previous races coming into THIS race COMPARED TO other horses in a specific race THAT DAY to determine whether its is a play or not.
2. I DO NOT KNOW AS WELL AS EVERYONE ON THIS BOARD who rachel or zenyatta will run against anyday! for all we know Z and R may run against a horse forging forward from negative 1s or 2s or 8s that day! who knows?!!?! until the entries come out it MEANS NOTHING. your BEST analysis couldnt beat this projection cause its UNKNOWN.
3. Sire, workouts, oats, rain...or whatever u guys are talking about will not take my opinion away for ANY horses previous thorograph number or abilities.
4. rest or no rest, i have NOTHING as well as you all do on how well Rachel will run.. we all have to personally decide whether a horse coming off a bounce of almost 5 points and many months rest is any kind of play. to ME its NO PLAY at all and chances are the horse will be 1/9 and wayyyy overbet! or MAYBE NOT!? we have to also consider the entries!
5. JACK is claiming here that IF Rachel is vulnerable it will ONLY be her first time out! if Rachel runs a 4 the first time out are you THAT confident she will run a winning effort second time out? NOOOOO how can you be? so what are u talking about? and what is your thought process on!??!?! YOU clearly gave a GREAT example Jack of how Flower Alley came out as a 4 year old! FA ran a negative ONE which YOU are saying would be a \"vulnerable effort\" (which you are saying rachel would be vulnerable since she wouldnt run a top effort) and FA still WON.. from THAT point on FA moved backwards EVERY race as a 4 year old! why couldnt rachel do the same?! please explain that to me!
6. I notice many people not taking these thorograph numbers seriously and wagering against themselves such as Zenyatta being able to beat Rachel on last years figures and in my opinion, you are all CRAZY!! there no basis whatsoever for your opinion! if you are a thorograph user you CANNOT think that Zenyatta can beat Rachel ANY day unless there was a specific reason for it! and YOU do not have it until AFTER they both race the next race AND u see entries for the race they are both in. IF you base your opinion NOW then Rachel HAS to win cause shes clearly faster!
7. ive heard people say on here that rachel HAS to run better since she is 4 years old now.. i came up with ONE example in flower alley where the horse did crap at 4 years old and did great at 3.. things happen and who knows! its just ONE example of MANY MANY MANY horses! (Bellamy Road, etc...)
8. Someone posted about a month ago or so ago how rachel almost lost to male horses and JUST held crap horses off at Saratoga... like JB just said she didnt run her race and if u look at it SHE BOUNCED 4-5 points and still won that race!
9. im battling 329048234 different opinions and perspectives at one time when i post something so chill out w me here =)
10. let the numbers speak for themselves within an individual horses pattern and number power in a given race!! i dont care who the sire is or what the horse worked out or who the baby daddy is or bla bla bla.. all i personally care about is whether or not THAT horse on THAT given day in THAT given race will run to a certain expectation with certain odds involved! every bet is different and counteraction wagers will happen countless times within an individual and their opinion.
11. im not taking away from anyone posting about workouts and such but its just bologna to ME until game day.. kobe can shoot 1 for 10 free throws prior to a game but that means nothing to me.. its all about THAT DAY in THAT RACE against THOSE factors... just my opinion! =D
ps.. i love this board!
nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> 5. JACK is claiming here that IF Rachel is
> vulnerable it will ONLY be her first time out! if
> Rachel runs a 4 the first time out are you THAT
> confident she will run a winning effort second
> time out? NOOOOO how can you be? so what are u
> talking about? and what is your thought process
> on!??!?! YOU clearly gave a GREAT example Jack
> of how Flower Alley came out as a 4 year old! FA
> ran a negative ONE which YOU are saying would be a
> \"vulnerable effort\" (which you are saying rachel
> would be vulnerable since she wouldnt run a top
> effort) and FA still WON.. from THAT point on FA
> moved backwards EVERY race as a 4 year old! why
> couldnt rachel do the same?! please explain that
> to me!
> ps.. i love this board!
A highly spirited post at 4:40am.:)
It\'s not real rocket science what my thought process is here. BTW, I didn\'t say \"ONLY\" because anything can happen. She\'s been off since September and while her works have been slow (normal for Assmussen), the bottom line is that she\'s coming in off of a long layoff for a trainer that is a bit better 2nd off the layoff. IMO, that\'s the only thing she has going against her...at this point. Do I think she wins the race? Of course, but I\'m just like most people here, I\'m looking for a reason to play a price horse rounding into form or that\'s in form and ready to fire.
As far as the numbers I don\'t think anyone takes them lightly or \"seriously\". If we did, why would we even be here? We know what they are and Rachel is an obvious freak. She turned away trends and \"patterns\" last year with just about every effort that the majority of us believe in. I see her running a 0 to 1 next weekend and back to her 3-4 negative after that.
ON FA, I understand your thought process. Is there a possibility that RA could flop as 4yo? Sure, but until she starts going backwards, I\'m going to lean the other way.
Skewed it is.
Thanks,
mjs
\"6. I notice many people not taking these thorograph numbers seriously and wagering against themselves such as Zenyatta being able to beat Rachel on last years figures and in my opinion, you are all CRAZY!! there no basis whatsoever for your opinion\'
NYC,
In fairness to Z(who has not demonstrated equal ability to Rachel so far)I\'ll slightly disagree with you and JB regarding what fig Z may run with race dynamics in her favor. While Z\'s one dirt race at OP is in line with her synth figs,I believe that several of her synth figs were on the slow side due to the race dynamics of many synth routes, i.e. crawl early, power home late.Such dynamics do not lend themselves to fast TG figs,most of the time.I feel that Z is capable of faster figs and her Beyers/Rags are already slanted that way vs TG.
While I believe that the Rachel of last year is too much horse for the Z of last year,it is conceivable that Z could go deeper into negative TG fig territory with the proper race dynamics, e.g. a fast contested pace in front of her.
On Rachel,I\'m not buying that Asmussen is presently \"thrilled\" with the way Rachel is coming up to her 4yr debut.I\'m sure he wanted her to get there slowly but her present works are unimpressive and incongruous with her talent and works of last year.Maybe she is taking more time to come to hand off the break or perhaps laying her body down all last year(running fast) has taken something away.Visually she looks better than last year but whats still inside Rachel is always the x factor which does not present until she races.
Asmussen is a prolific winning trainer and I doubt Rachel will go to the gate without him feeling good about her.
Mike
RA is one of the fastest fillies ever, and makes her own pace. I will not bet against her facing f&m. I will, however, try and beat Rachel when she faces an open group with serious pace pressure. If she\'s not on cruise control early, the odds of her putting up one of the freakish figures will be larger than the number on the tote board.
In such a situation, I\'m presuming you would want to play a closer?
The next horse who runs with Rachel early and finishes will be the first, yes?
Not a very smart post on my part. I looked a week ago at the foal dates for a ton of horses, especially Derby hopefuls, and threw in Rachel and Z for good measure. On the site I looked, it showed Rachel properly and had an obvious error for Zenyatta. When I checked the site last night, they were do doing maintenance (Thorough Query), and had corrected Z to the accurate 4/1/04.
My initial response to Miff was that Rachel was, in fact, a very young 3 year old last year.
Peace out.
Mike,
Most people on this board know I am a Zenyatta fan, but I\'m also a Rachel fan, but to a lesser degree.
I am a bit concerned with Rachel\'s workouts thus far. No doubt, she is capable of running her eyeballs out when needed, but I can\'t help but think last year\'s campaign was so grueling, she could take awhile to round into top condition.
We all know Asmussen is top notch and will do nothing to jeopardize Rachel\'s entire 2010 campaign. If Rachel is not showing signs of her former self, he may elect to not ship to the AB. Public pressure will push him that way, but I also think Asmussen must feel the race, especially if Z can still run a little, won\'t be a total walkover. Despite public pressure last year, Asmussen wouldn\'t send Rachel to try the synthetic, and Z\'s connections wouldn\'t ship her to run on the dirt either. Both camps like to win....and the whole racing world is gonna be watching so the last thing either camp wants is their filly/mare to be beaten at less than their best for this early in the year. Rachel will have to be fit enough to get the entire 9f and finish it strong cause when you throw $5M into the pot, there will be some capable runners in there.
Gonna give it a rest now until they both are announced as starters.
Have a good one.
Several things could potentially narrow the gap between Zenyatta and Rachel.
1. Even though there have been a few very fast synthetic races, the general trend has been for the highest quality synthetic races to be slower than comparable quality races on dirt. That may be a pace issue. It can be demonstrated (and has been by multiple sources) that all else being equal the average pace is slower for synthetic races.
2. The one time Zenyatta ran on dirt, she was still very early in her development and spiked forward impressively. She didn\'t improve her figures much after that, but it\'s hard to tell whether she actually didn\'t improve or whether the improvement was masked by the switch back to slow paced synthetic races. It would be a lot clearer if her first dirt race came in her 10th start or if she had another one last year.
The most obvious case against Z is that so far she has been slower and the conditions for the AB are ideal for Rachel Alexandra.
If I was the connections of Zenyatta, I would want the race to be run at 10F, on a synthetic track, against a couple of Grade 1 quality \"colts\" with enough speed to create an honest pace for elite fillies like this. We have already seen that Rachel is more vulnerable against other high quality speed, but only Grade 1 quality colts or close that actually have enough ability to press her and take some starch out of her. 10F would obviously make her more vulnerable and synthetic would be a question mark but probably a negative given her style.
If I was the connections of Rachel, I would want the race to be run at 9F, on dirt, against fillies. That way she would be at her optimal distance, on her favorite surface, and will be able to either control or stalk a pace well within her own range.
Given the conditions of the Apple Blossom, this race reminds me a lot of the Marvin Hagler and Sugar Ray Leonard fight where Hagler agreed to fight Ray in the largest possible legal ring, with gloves that had the thumb attached to protect Ray\'s eyes and minimize the impact of power punches, at 12 rounds instead of 15 rounds, and with judges well known for favoring boxers over punchers.
It kind of makes you wonder what this race or that fight actually proves. Surely there could have been some sort of compromise in the conditions.
Cartman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Several things could potentially narrow the gap
> between Zenyatta and Rachel.
>
> 1. Even though there have been a few very fast
> synthetic races, the general trend has been for
> the highest quality synthetic races to be slower
> than comparable quality races on dirt. That may be
> a pace issue. It can be demonstrated (and has been
> by multiple sources) that all else being equal the
> average pace is slower for synthetic races.
>
> 2. The one time Zenyatta ran on dirt, she was
> still very early in her development and spiked
> forward impressively. She didn\'t improve her
> figures much after that, but it\'s hard to tell
> whether she actually didn\'t improve or whether the
> improvement was masked by the switch back to slow
> paced synthetic races. It would be a lot clearer
> if her first dirt race came in her 10th start or
> if she had another one last year.
>
> The most obvious case against Z is that so far she
> has been slower and the conditions for the AB are
> ideal for Rachel Alexandra.
>
> If I was the connections of Zenyatta, I would want
> the race to be run at 10F, on a synthetic track,
> against a couple of Grade 1 quality \"colts\" with
> enough speed to create an honest pace for elite
> fillies like this. We have already seen that
> Rachel is more vulnerable against other high
> quality speed, but only Grade 1 quality colts or
> close that actually have enough ability to press
> her and take some starch out of her. 10F would
> obviously make her more vulnerable and synthetic
> would be a question mark but probably a negative
> given her style.
>
> If I was the connections of Rachel, I would want
> the race to be run at 9F, on dirt, against
> fillies. That way she would be at her optimal
> distance, on her favorite surface, and will be
> able to either control or stalk a pace well within
> her own range.
>
> Given the conditions of the Apple Blossom, this
> race reminds me a lot of the Marvin Hagler and
> Sugar Ray Leonard fight where Hagler agreed to
> fight Ray in the largest possible legal ring, with
> gloves that had the thumb attached to protect
> Ray\'s eyes and minimize the impact of power
> punches, at 12 rounds instead of 15 rounds, and
> with judges well known for favoring boxers over
> punchers.
>
> It kind of makes you wonder what this race or that
> fight actually proves. Surely there could have
> been some sort of compromise in the conditions.
Cart,
9f is the classic distance for f&m, and Zen loves the surface. They are also paying down to 10th, which should ensure a decent field.
I don\'t think either runner has an excuse in this one.
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Cart,
>
> 9f is the classic distance for f&m, and Zen loves
> the surface. They are also paying down to 10th,
> which should ensure a decent field.
>
> I don\'t think either runner has an excuse in this
> one.
Michael,
I respectfully disagree. IMHO, these are two very unique fillies with very different running styles and preferences. Zenyatta\'s major accomplishments have been as a deep closer on synthetic surfaces and Rachel Alexandra\'s as a speed horse on dirt.
You can argue that Zenyatta handled dirt well in her only start at Oaklawn. However, IMHO there is a huge fundamental difference between dirt and synthetic racing.
Deep powerful closers like Zenyatta are not disadvantaged on synthetic tracks the way they are on dirt tracks. If anything, deep reserves of stamina and a powerful closing kick are actually an advantage in route races.
The exact opposite is true on dirt. The winner is typically one of the major contenders that gets good early position. Only a very fast pace gives those deep closers a real shot.
If this race was being held at SA, at 10F, on Pro Ride, against some speedy colts (like the BC Classic) every Rachel Alexandra fan on earth would be howling that the conditions favored Zenyatta. I would agree with that. I\'d make Zenyatta 2-5 in that spot to beat Rachel. It would be totally unfair.
Yet, this race is being held at 9F, on dirt, against fillies and no one seems to have an issue with it even though it\'s the exact set of conditions that Rachel loves most. The only thing missing is a speed bias. Perhaps Oaklawn will provide that too. ;-)
I\'m not particularly interested in who is better at 9F on dirt against fillies or who is better at 10F on Pro Ride against colts. I believe I already know both answers. What I am really curious about is which of them is relatively better at what they excel at.
I think there were several ways to help determine that.
1. You could make the race 10F instead of 9F to take away some of the advantage of speed on dirt.
Even though 9F tends to be the more standard classic distance for fillies, the Alabama, CCAO (until this year), and Delaware Hcp are all high quality races at 10F for fillies. The Breeder\'s Cup Classic is also at 10F and I presume Rachel will run in it if she\'s still going well enough to try to repeat her HOTY honors.
2. You could keep the distance 9F but invite colts to ensure an honest pace .
I can only think of one filly in the country (Careless Jewel) that has enough high quality route speed to keep Rachel \"honest\" on the lead (other than a suicidal rabbit). But Careless Jewell isn\'t running. Therefore even though the pace of the Apple Blossom is unlikely to be slow, it is likely to be slow \"relative to the ability of horses like RA and Z\".
Let me explain. These two horses are very superior to other Grade 1 fillies. So average for other Grade 1 fillies is slow \"for these two\". That\'s a very subtle point that many will not understand, but IMO it\'s very relevant. IMO this is one reason RA has finished so well in her filly races, but seemed more vulnerable late and recorded slower speed figures against colts a couple of times. Against colts, she\'s more likely to face another horse of similar ability on the lead.
3. You could run the race on a synthetic track but shorten the distance to a mile or a mile and 70 yards to diminish the disadvantage that very speedy horses have on synthetic track when they don\'t back down the pace (look what happend to Careless Jewel when she didn\'t rate well in the BC).
4. You could run a series of races at different distances and on different surfaces.
IMO, this race will only serve to reinforce misunderstandings about the differences between the two surfaces and hurt Zenyatta\'s reputation among people that don\'t understand the surface, pace, running style and figure issues.
What are we going to do next?
Run Sacred Kingdom against Rachel Alexandra at 9F on dirt and say that proves something about their relative ability? ;-)