...to the TG user and sometimes poster on this forum who nailed the SA pick 6 yesterday for 300k plus.
I wonder if it was Doc smithkent. Oh the irony...
Funny, but no. The guy in question is probably the top day-to-day pro player, one of the guys Dr. Kent says don\'t exist.
Sounds like it\'s high-quality kibble with steak for at least one lucky rescue dog tonight. Congratulations!
Would be interesting to see how he/she structured the ticket and the strategy used. That kind of info. is worthwhile.
Dana666 wrote:
\"Would be interesting to see how he/she structured the ticket and the strategy used. That kind of info. is worthwhile.\"
It was a $2400 ticket: 2X2X5X4X5X3. Note: This amounts to about a one-unit play for him. It wasn\'t a too-many-eggs-in-one-basket sort of play. It was the kind of play that he could lose early and take it in stride.
As a rule, if he is singling a horse at nice odds, he\'ll put in backup tickets in addition to the main ticket, expanding the coverage around his single. But this play had no such horse. It was based more on an opinion that several favorites figured to be over-played. He left these horses off his ticket altogether.
Also as a rule, he plays every SoCal carryover. Indeed, despite spending the bulk of his time in Toronto and Miami, he plays SoCal every day through most of the year--such is his conviction about the potency of TG numbers on SoCal racetracks, both turf and synthetic.
Ticket:
Race four: Leaving New York, Warrens Casino Guy (leaving out, among others, Tiz Argent, whose odds weren\'t justified by his TG figures, and who drew outside and ended up losing to LNY on ground).
Race five: Mr. Saturdaynight, Peacock Alliance (playing against Came Aboard).
Race six: Sky Marni, Malusita, Suances de Espana, You Can Dream, Multitasker.
Race seven: Leedstheway (fast early numbers, fast for Mullins, back with Mullins), Captain Kali, Rainbow Goose, and Flashmans Papers (playing against the Puype favorite, Achak, off a two-point new top first 4YO).
Race eight: Striking Dancer (off an O2X), Freedom Star, Stardom Bound, Spirit Seeker, Dream Empress (leaving out the Mott; good numbers were on real dirt and Mott not firing this meet).
Race nine: Champion Ride, Miss Seamless, Laugh Till I Cry. (The first-timers in this race, a Kruljac and a Hofmans, were not much according to Andy Harrington of National Turf, who is never wrong except when he is.)
Thanks for posting this Rich. Is this how you normally play your exotic tickets? As opposed to the A-B-C ranking of horses?
I\'ve been using the ABCs recently and I understand Crist\'s idea behind structuring tickets this way to be able to spread for less money. Unfortunately, the majority of the time I have the right horses and have done a decent job handicapping but I\'ve been mixing and matching the wrong way. Frustrating.
Jack,
You\'re welcome. Let me make it clear that it was my friend who had the Pick Six. I did nothing except watch, root, and listen.
To answer your questions: He will often put in backup tickets in addition to a main ticket, but he doesn\'t use the Steve Crist ABC method. He considers it too arbitrary. However, he does agree with the principle behind the method: If you are right, really right, about certain races, then you have earned the space to be somewhat wrong about other races and still hit the thing.
Thank you. I think I understand everything, except the part about Toronto.
Congrats,tough pick 6. Like most pick sixes, a few things have to go your way as was the case here.
Mike
Thank you, Miff. I agree that a few things have to go one\'s way--if for no other reason than to make up for the things that invariably go the opposite way.
The DOC salutes anybody that hits a pick 6. I think you guys have me wrong- I love betting on horses. I especially enjoy the challenge of constructing a multiwager bet that doesn\'t break my bankroll. I love the pick 4 and have several big scores with that bet. I\'d love to be a regular pick 6 player, since that bet has the odds in your favor when there is a carryover. You just need a level of capitalization way beyond a mere physician can support- I have a mortgage and two kids in college you know.
The subject of pro pick 6 players is interesting- there is an area where I\'ve heard you could make a living if you are deep pockets enough. I understand it is a sketchy sort of living- you also have the tax issue to deal with since you will hit IRS limits with that bet every time. The tax treatment of horse betting is quite disadvantageous- think or how you are taxed by the state right out of the pools, and then have to pay tax again on your winnings- double taxation!
So yes- I can envision this scenario for being a pro horse player-really making a living. I\'d play the pick 6 only on carrover days. I\'d have capital of at least 1-2 million to allow for expected losing streaks. I\'d live offshore in a tax haven where my winnings wouldn\'t be doubly taxed. I play as a whale with a service that cut my effective takeout to around 5-7%
But for us regular players, takeout and double taxation makes the game ultimately financially unbeatable.
That doesn\'t mean it shouldn\'t be played for other reasons though.
Doc,
Time to hone your math skills and horse racing knowledge a bit.
The pick 6 has the highest take out of any wager in North America typically 25 % at most tracks.
Even if you reside in Bora, Bora you are still cashing the ticket in the US and are subject to 20 % fedreal tax + applicable state tax. IE: NY 8 % so on any ticket over $ 5,000.00 28 % is automatically taken out before your paid.
Your now up to a 53 % take out or double tax as you prefer.
Please let me know the house that will give you a 46 % rebate to get to a 7 % net take out ? I\'ll sign up pronto.
Also when you get to the third day of a carryover at a major track and are heading towards a $ 500,000.00 pool your betting against the syndicates that start putting in $10,000.00 and up combo tickets.
I played the pick 6 heavily back in the 90\'s. I hit one for $ 80,000 and several over $ 10,000.00 on typical investments of $ 400.00 - $ 1,200.00.
When the pick 4\'s came into play I changed over to investing a few hundred dollars at a time on multiple tickets and have cashed many 3 zero tickets from 1 to 10 times on some hits.
The pick 3 is an awesome bet if you like one price horse and use him 3x3 or 4x4 in 5 or 10 dollar tickets.
Leave the pick 6 carryovers to the pro\'s and syndicates unless your playing your address or phone number !
Just for info there is \"pro\" pick six crew in New Jersey that hit one for $800K a few years ago.From one participant in that group, I am told they are just about even after a few years. They usually bet about $15k on big pool days.
Out of Florida, there is another group that has fared somewhat better, hitting a few big ones(one for $1.5 million). These guys have made a profit over the years in this pool.
I\'ve studied and gambled in the P6 pools(ny and cali) for as long as it\'s been around and have been an\"only\" ticket in NY a few times(never an only in Cali where the pool is normally triple NY)
As I mentioned to Rich Curtis, there is usually an element of \"good fortune\" when you hit a large ticket, that great trip or nose photo you win etc.As a general rule, you will have much more \"bad fortune\" in this pool as willed by the Gods, bad trips, bad rides, etc.Getting all six home is extremely difficult. I know many regular daily players who have never hit a pick six over years.
I was concerned when the BRIS \"syndicate\" started to put hundreds of players together making tickets for $5OK and more on occasion but that turned out to be a rather harmless group.I do not feel that the pick 6 pool can be beat just by large tickets.Case in point, Rich Curtis\' ticket of $2.5k is a nice size ticket but I will bet that there were many people who invested more than that and did not hit it.
Lastly, as to takeout in the pick six pool,in my mind that negative factor is substantially mitigated by pool size and dead money.
Mike
Many good points Mike especially about overcoming the takeout with volume. There is a large pick 6 player at the Albany Tele-Theater that will typically play 4-5 k on his own. You always here about when he hits a good one but many more days there\'s a lot of money going down the drain !
The best pro-group story ever was a group out of Philly back in the 80\'s that travelled all over the country when there was a big pool. I was living in Chicago at the time and they had a crazy wager called the Super Bet at Hawthorne & Arlington. It was much more difficult than the pick 6, you had to hit the exacta, exacta & triple in 3 consecutive races. It was nuts and the multiples got crazy !
This group had come into town a few times and took it down for several hundred thousand dollars 4 or 5 time that I knew of. In July 1985 the pool at Arlington Park was $ 800.000 and they came in and bet over 20 k. No one hit. The next day it was 1.4 million and they bet in excess of 40 k and it was not hit.
July 31st 1985 it hit 2.4 million and they came in to be 50 something thousand and were told they were barred from the track. There business was no longer welcome. Dick Duchossois the owner of Arlington Park threw them out.
A Greek restaurant owner hit it that day solo for 2.4 million. This guy had 4 restaurants and paid 5 loan sharks every week of his life !
He figured he got even and quit gambling. True story, no one ever saw him at the track again, he stopped calling in sports bets etc...
That night by amazing coincidence Arlington Park burnt to the ground !!!
Kent-- seriously, you need to leave this alone. There are several people who post here that bet 7 figures a year (I\'m one of them),and you simply have no idea what you are talking about. I\'m not going to get involved in correcting all the misinformation and misguided reasoning (again)-- you are a total novice speaking to an audience that contains pros and lots of semi-pros.
The scariest thing is that you are SUCH a bad listener. Exactly what I want in a doctor.
Interesting, Why would they be barred from the track unless they were going to set some races?..
Weird..
Kent,
You probably are a fairly smart guy and a decent person. But I really think you are beginning to cross the line on this board. You simply refuse to admit that the winning pro horse player exists. Fine. We get it. Several of us have CLEARLY pointed out that your logic is seriously flawed. Rather than address this directly, you would rather be dogmatic and point out that you are a doctor and should know or selectively quote something Steve Crist recently wrote or some other irrelevant fact or whatever...
You know, I have talked with Steve Crist, in person, albeit quite some time ago, and I can tell you that he would flat out disagree with much of what you claim he believes because he knows better. No matter what he may write, he writes it for the massess. He knows there are pro players that beat this game, and he knows they are better players than he is. In fact, he would probably tell you that he would not even rate himself as one of the best handicappers that he has ever met, not even close. In fact, he endorses Beyer Speed Figures in part because he has to...
My point is this. There are pro players out there. You can continue to try to to theoretically disprove their existence all you want, but I will be having a drink with my buddy Rem today at the Minneapolis Airport while he is on a layover. And he has done nothing but play the horses since 1992. Does he have losing days? Yep. Does he lose more often than he wins? Yep. But does he win more money, a lot more money than loses? Yep. He makes his own figures. He has two clockers. He has a part time assistant. He is the best judge of horseflesh I have ever seen when it comes to just watching a horse move and predicting improving or declining form in the near future. He subscribes to a few publications and a data service. He talks to a half dozen or so handicappers he knows and respects across the country to keep tabs on what is going on at their local circuits, share some thoughts, etc. But other than that, he keeps a very, very low profile. He is 51 years old, not likely to change much and if you met him at the track you would have no idea who he is or that he does this for a livng. Nonetheless, in two hours if I reach out and poke him in the eye it will hurt, because he is real. AND NOTHING YOU CAN SAY THEORETICALLY CAN POSSIBLY INVALIDATE THAT.
So get real buddy. My advice to you is this. Go ahead and not believe me. Go ahead and laugh at me or anyone else you want to laugh at in private from a distance. You are entitled to that. But If you can\'t add something productive to this board, please at least afford the rest of us some common courtesy and stop posting your dogmatic b.s. I thank you for some of your earlier input because it seemed to lead to a productive discussion about the importance of rebates in the information age.
Moving forward, I don\'t think many of us care about the view from your box at Santa Anita, although I am happy you have it and glad you enjoy it. Please continue to enjoy the game for your own reasons, but leave your ego at the door.
MJ
Thanks much for that! Always interesting. Personally, I could/would never structure a ticket like that - in my book you must have at least 1 single, preferably 2, and I usually won\'t spend over a couple hundred on a pick six; I don\'t believe the added cash enhances your chances much, and, in general, they are horrible bets, but we come from different schools of thought, I guess. But the gentleman had a very good opinion in the 7th and 8th races (those were bold/smart plays), and he was very lucky (as anyone would need to be to win 300+K) in the first leg - I think Tiz Argent is a nice animal and Solis was way too confident; I hate when jocks think maidens can easily cruise by horses; they\'re maidens, you know, they\'re not used to passing horses - Pincay was the best in a race like that - always ultra-aggressive. Using three horses in the last leg was too many, Champion Ride was as cold as a single gets, in my mind anyway - Conlon is lights out first time off the claim, especially with a decent horse - she knows her stuff.
Hey, God Bless him - that\'s a life changing score for almost anyone. I can see he\'s mostly going straight by the sheets, and I also believe if you do that in California, you\'ll eventually get creamed (even Thorographs, forget Ragozin\'s, you\'ll commit suicide in 3 months with those out there), but I\'ve found California numbers to be very questionable with the synthetic surfaces, and I always feel replays are essential out there. Has become way too much work for me these days. Andy Harrington hurts you a lot, too. I know he\'s right once in a while, but he will kill you eventually. I was a long time subscriber to his workout report - he doesn\'t really know what he\'s looking at, but to each his own. If I ever hit one, I\'ll post, but it\'s been a long pick six drought for me. I haven\'t hit a six-figure one since 2006!!! My investment that day was $256.00 which I went half on with my buddy. If I were that lucky fellow, I\'d take the cash and vacation in the South Pacific until the dirt track is re-installed at Santa Anita b/c, believe me, to win like that on that wacky surface is a complete miracle from heaven, and if you count on doing it again, you\'ll probably lose 600K chasing - sadly I speak from experience. Synthetics tracks s-u-c-k the life and bankroll out of you.
Dana,
Thank you for the reply. There are a couple of things here I feel I should respond to:
You wrote:
\"I can see he\'s mostly going straight by the sheets, and I also believe if you do that in California, you\'ll eventually get creamed (even Thorographs, forget Ragozin\'s, you\'ll commit suicide in 3 months with those out there), but I\'ve found California numbers to be very questionable with the synthetic surfaces,\"
My friend has been playing synthetics aggressively since shortly after they were installed: Woodbine, Keeneland, and SoCal, even travelling across the country to Del Mar every year to play every day of the meet. We are not talking about a small sample here. We are talking about years of daily play. He is a versatile handicapper, but TG is at the heart of his approach, and overall his results have been as good, if not better, on synthetic than on real dirt. And speaking only for myself, for what it\'s worth, I\'ve studied TG CA synthetic figures as closely as I\'m capable of studying anything, and I am convinced that the numbers are every bit as accurate and useful on synthetic as they are on real dirt. And why wouldn\'t they be? Synthetic surfaces have much in common with grass, and since the day I started using sheets, I was always struck by how many sheet players prefer grass to real dirt.
\"Andy Harrington hurts you a lot, too. I know he\'s right once in a while, but he will kill you eventually. I was a long time subscriber to his workout report - he doesn\'t really know what he\'s looking at, but to each his own.\"
Harrington will kill you from time to time if you grant him that power, and so will Bruno De Julio, and so will Turrell, and so will any other clocker, and so, of course, will refusing to use any clocker. Whatever one thinks of racetracks, they aren\'t wanting for ways to kill bettors. Again speaking only for myself, I\'ve read posts on this board that talk of \"those sharp-eyed CA clockers who never miss,\" or words to that effect, and I literally burst out laughing because the words are the kind of utter nonsense that could be written only by someone who knows nothing about CA clockers. However, my friend has been using Harrington daily for years, another huge sample, and overall he considers him a definite plus when his write-ups are kept in perspective and when the \"clocker variant\" has been applied to Bob Hess and certain other trainers--the guys who specialize in flummoxing clockers.
Hey, if he\'s that good on synthetics, God bless him, he deserves the success and the cash because not too many people I know do well on them.
Your words are wise; I mean, one thing I\'ll say about those workout reports is it must be tough to watch all those horses and sort them out; I wonder if they had the wrong horse sometimes; also the synthetics tracks sometimes change dramatically from morning till afternoon, so that could also account for errors in judgment, and I\'m not saying they didn\'t help me at times, they did. I liked when they\'d tell me simple stuff, like the horse was happy and healthy, I wasn\'t so impressed with fast times and whatnot. I base a lot on what I would call (for lack of a better phrase) a horses\' reservoir of \"chi\" - whether that is based innately on his bloodlines or of a more immediate concern, how\'s he\'s being trained and raced and what that\'s doing to his health and vitality, as evidenced through his kidney chi- something I\'ve applied from my study of Traditional Chinese Medicine, anyway I\'m going off on a tangent here.
You have the right approach, one I don\'t always employ - don\'t let the data rule you, you rule the data. That could be my biggest error at times, whether it\'s workouts, sheets or even my own eyes. I tend to be a bit inflexible and stubborn (in case anyone hasn\'t noticed!) from time to time. It may not be good to have too strong an opinion regarding a horse because he will often make a liar out of me.
I\'d be lying though if I said I wasn\'t looking forward to the \"new\" dirt surface this fall at Oak Tree. Hope it happens.