Unrivaled Belle- Even though this horse has run over a synthetic track, the best form has come on dirt. We know that that doesn\'t transfer well. Improved since the first start? Obviously, but considering the rail has been brutal in races at 1 1/16 and longer from a win percentage, the low price, and the late ship, I\'ll try something else.
Dream Empress-Actually ran a competitive figure in her 2yo season. Unfortunately hasn\'t come close to that since. Add that together with McPeek\'s poor performance in Graded stakes races and the probable tough trip she\'s also a toss.
Striking Dancer-I look for this one to improve 2nd off layoff and after being terribly blocked in deep stretch in the last effort. She has good late speed but will she encounter traffic issues again from the 3 hole? Unfortunately with McPeek\'s poor performance in Stakes races the last 4 yrs. (6%) it\'s tough to see. A 30-1ml may be worth a play underneath.
Freedom Star- The good: Garcia is 10 for his last 37 with Baffert, the horse shows a decent figure and is lightly raced at 4. Additionally, while the recent efforts have been run on the front end the horse has shown the ability to rate. Street Cry offspring show 2 points of development from 3-4. IMO, the only way this horse wins is if Garcia can slow it down and beat Spirit Seeker to the 1st turn. That\'s a lot to ask of a rider that has a poor record with pace setters. The distance may be her biggest challenge. Her best figure was also run over the speed favoring cushion at Hollywood. Her only win at SA was over a small field of 4 rivals at the OC40 level.
Pretty Catherine-A lot to like here IMO. Rosario riding, Hollendorfer\'s barn has been good the last 90 days, and she should work out a good trip according to the race shapes. Very important in a large field. BTW, Rosario/Hollendorfer at 30-1ml. It has to be worth something.
Gripsholm Castle-In the last 5 years, Cecil in 1 for 8 with foreign shippers in graded stakes. Espinoza is a good route rider and 1st time lasix (Cecil 16%) is a plus. Dynaformer runners also seem to like the surface so the turf form should transfer. She\'s also been in CA for at least 7 weeks and should be adjusted. Her best numbers have also come 1st of the layoff and distance shouldn\'t be a problem. If she can match her turf top (52% chance on 90+ days off in a 48 horse sample) I think she has a chance.
Stardom Bound- All indications and......rumors are that she\'s working better than ever. It still took her 15 months to pair her 2yo top...but she did it in the last race after a bit of a slow start. Doesn\'t she always start slow??? Should be interesting to see how LePeroux positions her as she was wide(2w4w) the entire race on 1/17. We know she\'ll be coming on late and if she gets a rough trip the race is even more wide open. I also find it interesting that they have been working her regularly over the turf course. The SoCal homers will be all over this one and she\'ll be a short price and she deserves to be. It all depends on the trip and if she can get 1 1/8. I\'ll look elsewhere because of the inevitable low price.
Gumption-The race shapes have Gumption stalking the early pace with Pretty Katherine. This is obviously good in a large field. Mike Smith is 27% with Headley in their last 22 races so she should be in good position. While the odds are in her favor to match her recent top it\'s probably not fast enough because there are a number of others with better late kick, and she was beaten by 3 others in this field in her last race. Maybe underneath at 30-1ml.
Miss Silver Brook-The Canani barn is on fire this meet (34%) and 3 for the last 6 with GG(28% overall). Julio is also 28% with runners off of a win. She has shown minimal development so far but Cozzene\'s runners show 3pts. of development from 3-4. Cozzene also has an average winning distance of 8.1f. The Thoro-Pattern shows a 22% chance for a new top. She has a good record at SA. Her workout pattern shows that she may be more forwardly placed. If that\'s the case I think she may have a shot. A lot of good bold figures for the rider and the trainer. Might be worth a shot.
Spirit Seeker-Another one that shows excellent form.....on dirt. Anyone know why Hollendorfer swapped riders on his two entries?? Bejarano is good on the lead and she\'ll be forwardly placed with Freedom Star from the outside. Peace Rules runners show a poor synth figure average. She faded in both her recent efforts and the latest was against a few others in this field. This field is significantly more difficult than the OC25s at Calder. No thanks.
Floating Heart-Always slow out of the gate but one of the few in the field that we know won\'t have a problem with the distance. Will be running late and Pletcher\'s graded stakes record(the last 3yrs.) at Santa Anita is 7 wins in 41 starts (17%).
UB and SB clearly show the best figures and class in the field and it\'s not unreasonable to think either one can win. The bad post for UB and back form on dirt only and SB\'s probable wide trip has me trying to beat them. With that being said there is no other horse in the field that is a standout on figures or any other factor for that matter.
I\'ll mix together some combos with Gripsholm Castle, Miss Silver Brook, Pretty Katherine, and Floating Heart in an effort to find a price.
Good luck!
win, lose or draw, really thoughtful analysis, thanks so much for taking the time to post
im in $1200 to show on Floating Heart.. lets gun these suckas DOOOOOOOOOOOWN =D
Great job and congrats NYC! I keyed the 7 over everything and left the favorites off of everything. That was painful. Oh well, there\'s always next week.
Don\'t feel too bad. I had the 4 boxed with 6 horses (including that overrated good for nothing Stardom Bound). Coming up with the 7 was a great call. Wish I had done the same ($3700 mistake) but I couldn\'t make her for the life of me.
Better off with betting win/place. Exactas are a joke since you can\'t eliminate horses on this crap. I know the 7 ran second, but seeing that horse run that well defies all the handicapping principles I have learned over the last 40 years.
Anyway, great call Jack. Perhaps one day the both of us will learn how to bet. That\'s when they\'ll all run 3rd. I love/hate this game!!!
Good Luck,
Joe B.