Looking forward to any input as this looks like a good betting race, and that Quality Road is a bet against considering the extra weight and his history of physical and mental problems. Delightful Kiss draws outside and does not seem to have enough conditioning-I am throwing him out. Dry Martini used his last race simply as a prep for this-one mile was too short for him, yet he finished well and will definitely, in my opinion, this time finish ahead of Duke of Mischief, Kiss the Kid, and Mambo Meister, who finished 1-2-3 ahead of him. Past the Point ran lights out here last year and will hopefully press the pace with Quality Road, who got off with easy fractions last out. A fast first half can set it up for a closer like Dry Martini, who is in the best condition of his 7 year old life.
I will box DM with QR, and play a tri key DM-All-All
From what i can remember the track at Gulfstream on the 10th was drying out and very tiring.
I would tend to downplay any heroics by horses that closed that day.
The key question here is, and many of you may know where I am going with this, is how long has Marty Wolfson had \"You and I Forever.\" I may be wrong, but I don\'t think he had him before this year.
Can anyone confirm?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I am a Calder regular who has been dealing with the Wolfson factor for years and have an interest in this race as I own a piece of Mambo Meister.He has had YAIF for quite a while so I\'m hoping we have seen his best already.
if there is one thing i have learned wagering on horses is that when 3 and 4 year olds run against older horses the CLASS and experience of older horses becomes a dominant factor. with that being said i do not think QR and Dukee Boy will win. Kiss the Kid has some nice efforts and should save enough ground to have a magical trip set up with speed up front sooooooo KTK all the waaaaay!
I am on Kiss the Kid in the Donn as well if I get 8 to 1 or so.
2 points slower than QR\'s last but getting 1 pt worth of weight and should save ground all the way while others could lose quite a bit of ground with the short run to the first turn.
Likes a bit of moisture in the track as well.
thanks, Ray. I think MM has a big shot.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
according to these doubles it looks like QR is going to open up a 3/5 shot... ridiculous..
he\'s 1-9 currently...
hey cove we have 35-1 LOL i think i could afford $20 across the board lol maybe QR will take the 85ina50 route =D
sorry guys, there\'s a new RACEHORSE in town... new track record.
2nd off the layoff was great.. guess we will seeeeee
Wow, talk about Quality on the Road.
That\'s about as impressive a win as you will ever see.
Lays close to a 46 flat half mile and then still has enough to explode down the stretch and draw off from the closers.
Good Night Irene...
Can you imagine Rachel and he throwing down?
this gives more reason for oaklawn to make that $5 million race an invitational and have zenyatta in there with rachel and QR
That was his 2nd Track Record in only 9 starts. And these are not at odd distances like 4 and half or at Bush Tracks:Saratoga and now Gulfstream.
Maybe someone else knows but it seemed like both those records had benn around a while also
This horse need to stay and learn his manners and then the Sky Is The Limit
you were right, 2/5 was way too high
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Maybe someone else knows but it seemed like both
> those records had benn around a while also
While the previous Gulfstream 9F track record he broke today was only about a year old, he was the one that set it in the Fla Derby last year. Quite a feat to set and break your own track record at the same major track less than a year apart. This is some runner.
Bob
drbillym Wrote:
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> Looking forward to any input as this looks like a
> good betting race, and that Quality Road is a bet
> against considering the extra weight and his
> history of physical and mental problems.
> Delightful Kiss draws outside and does not seem to
> have enough conditioning-I am throwing him out.
> Dry Martini used his last race simply as a prep
> for this-one mile was too short for him, yet he
> finished well and will definitely, in my opinion,
> this time finish ahead of Duke of Mischief, Kiss
> the Kid, and Mambo Meister, who finished 1-2-3
> ahead of him. Past the Point ran lights out here
> last year and will hopefully press the pace with
> Quality Road, who got off with easy fractions last
> out. A fast first half can set it up for a closer
> like Dry Martini, who is in the best condition of
> his 7 year old life.
> I will box DM with QR, and play a tri key
> DM-All-All
Congrats on the Exacta call and Tri bet. DM really benefitted from the quick pace and rail trip, but he was a solid bet to include in the Exacta in any case. I had QR over DK and MM and reluctantly left out DM. I should have paid more attention to your post.
QR was too short a price to pay to win but too good to play against. The best bet was to play him over someone like DM, DK or MM. The Ex and Tri were pretty decent considering the short odds on the solid favorite.
Bob
what do u guys think he ran? an effortless negative 3 or so? todays effort reminded me of ghostzapper going 2 turns!
nyc1347 they are never effortless when they are this fast. Probably ran somewhere in the range of those last three digits of yours. Negative of course.
Bob you are correct. That GP record he set last year. I forgot but I would be curious to know how long that one had lasted. The record last year, Dunkirk was beaten only a length..ie-the track was really juiced up. Big Drama and This Ones for Phil ran 7 in 1:20 in the race before with heads bobbing on the line.
There was nobody bobbing any heads on the line yesterday. Maybe a few nodding heads....
Since all of the track records listed on the Gulfstream Park website are from 2005 or later, I\'m guessing they started fresh when the rebuilt track opened in 2005.
We make our own figs. For what it is worth, we have him going 2w,2-3W under 123 lbs, and our number would put him at a rough TG equivalent of -5.0. By our count, depending upon what you do with the day, you could make a case for adjusting that either up or down slightly, but there is no way he comes in at a negative 3. At least not by our count. Will be curious to see what Jerry does with the day.
I think JB could end up around neg 6 if he so chooses. The Beyer guys have QR at app TG neg-7,scale to scale.
When you look at the routes yestrday(cheaper horses of course) the fig is off the charts.I\'ll expect some creative license here.
Mike
That\'s exactly the tricky thing with this fig. You have to use the 1 turn races to get the varient and that is always a tricky thing. Sometimes you even find have to go back later and adjust after the fact. I think a -5 is about right, but you can make a case to go a little higher or lower depening upon how you view some of the earlier races, and where you put QR on the 2nd turn. In any case, it is a big number. Heck of a race, and the fig is backed up by what happened visually. No way it was effortless though. Big, big effort.
One thing I feel fairly confident saying is that the Quality Road that ran in the Donn would beat the best we saw of Rachel Alexandra last year. All things are never equal, but QR stalked the lead of Passing Point, easily put him away, and drew far off from a field of Grade 2 and Grade 3 colts like a legitimate elite Grade 1 horse should. When Rachel was pressed by Passing Point, she was almost life and death to hold off Bullsbay and Macho Again. Those two are not that much better than the colts that QR destroyed Saturday.
In fact, if I was the connections of Zenyatta, I\'d be calling for QR to be included in any match up of the leading horses. Zenyatta might not be able to catch QR if he can hold that form, but IMO it would make it better than even money she picks up RA for second.
There are a lot of bad assumptions in that analysis.
First what if Rachel doesnt go for the lead.
How slow could the pace be?
Even more significant is how big would this field be?
When Rachel ran in the Woodward there was decent sized field and they were avoiding traffic or gamesmanship?
How sound did Quality Road look before the BC Classic? Experts said during that week he looked VERY unhappy.
An effort like QR put forth on Sat beats EVERYBODY. I have yet to see him do it two times in row.
Rachel has........
Real nice set up for QR on Sat who ran his fastest race to date.Trying to guess how certain horses would do against each other is a great debate in a bar.
As of today, QR ran faster than any horse still in training. If TG/Rags agree with Beyer it will be one of the faster figs ever given.In a repeat of that last performance, Rachel would have little chance and Z would get embarrassed, all things equal.
Mike
Also, not so sure QR runs that fig anywhere but at GP.
Miff-- Rachel already ran a couple of neg 4 1/2s, and would get weight as a filly. And though it\'s not likely, what if she were to improve from 3 to 4 as much as QR did (assuming the figure is what you say, which looks about right)?
Pletcher is starting to get numbers again, regardless.
Joekay,
Valid point about QR at GP but the Met Mile should shed some light.Must remember that before this horse ever ran(trained by James Jerkens) Richard Migliore stated this would be a special horse.
Mike
JB,
As I said, if you gave QR neg 6-7, I believe the fig would be very accurate.Don\'t know how you will do it since the other mile and one eighth race was cheap claimers and a bottomed out field from a fast pace.GP did not have a glib surface on Sat in the 6 dirt races and if I had to guess, I would say you had to take off a little.
Assuming Rachel comes back as good or better( I believe great sound females get stronger/faster at 4 and 5) Saw her train the other day, looks more physically developed.
I don\'t believe the weight spot will be enough for Rachel to handle QR if he can repeat his last.I could see them running off from the field, but the great Rachel would need to improve a little to beat the horse that ran on Sat.
Rachels people would have to be nuts to tackle QR,imo!
Mike
Miff..
Howe did you think RA looked on the track the other day? From my TV view she looked a lot bigger and not quite as light on her feet as last year. If bigger is better for her she could be a lot better.
Martoon,
She is obviously carrying extra weight from not racing.I understand she was never totally let down.As I said,if she stays sound there is no telling where she may be at some point his year.Tough to figure theres a whole lot of developing for her going forward.
As a 3 yr old filly, she was in the freak class both figure wise and accomplishment wise.
Mike
>Pletcher is starting to get numbers again, regardless.
There is a lot of movement at his barn at Palm Meadows at all hours of the day and night. NOW I DID NOT say anybody was cheating just that there are people coming and going at all hours of the day and night. Maybe just working extra hard.
Is Albertrani serving days??
I\'ve been hanging around Thoro for a few years, on the sidelines for the most part, so forgive my question, but....how come we come up with a new superhorse about every six months?
Quality Road is a nice horse, but he\'s really only done the same thing, under similar conditions and distance, at the same track TWICE. This makes him the the new great?
Come on guys....let\'s see him carry his race somemwhere else. Let\'s see him carry some real weight. Let\'s see him change up distances. Let\'s see him beat more than a bunch of plugs.
For crying out loud.
Forgive me, but 123 (just after 126) is not real weight? I agree that GP is usually speed-favoring, but what chances has he had since returning to running condition? If he can stay healthy this year, he might be looking at HOY. Graded stakes winners by 12 3/4 is not just beating plugs.
I know there\'s often hyperpole in here, but some good handicappers thought some good horses could run him down. This is Quality Road, not Ersatz Lane.
I have really only gotten behind two horses consistently in here: Summer Bird and QR, and SB may have a huge year, too, once back to dirt where he belongs.
Leamas
alm Wrote:
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> I\'ve been hanging around Thoro for a few years, on
> the sidelines for the most part, so forgive my
> question, but....how come we come up with a new
> superhorse about every six months?
>
> Quality Road is a nice horse, but he\'s really only
> done the same thing, under similar conditions and
> distance, at the same track TWICE. This makes him
> the the new great?
>
> Come on guys....let\'s see him carry his race
> somemwhere else. Let\'s see him carry some real
> weight. Let\'s see him change up distances. Let\'s
> see him beat more than a bunch of plugs.
>
> For crying out loud.
I usually take your side here alm, but Zen, RA, and QR really are bigger, stronger, and faster than the average thoroughbred. Watching their races, and examining their size, scope, and genes, it is reasonable to conclude that they are running at extremely high levels, maybe as fast as any that have ever run. Not a sure bet by any means, but not unreasonable in my opinion.
Now, with QR, there is no doubt that he needs to take his \'A\' game outside of S Fla before he\'s even considered a great (and I\'m not sure he can do that at the routes), but there\'s nothing wrong with celebrating what the speed figure experts are calling an incredibly fast race.
Summer Bird, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, Blame (Yes he belongs in there), and whatever three year olds come out of the triple crown. This could be a really fun year if they don\'t duck each other throughout. Hopefully we get them all to the Breeders\' Cup..
Not the same distance, of course. But did set a track record at Saratoga, and by a fair bit.
As others have said, the Met will tell more.
Maybe you will all prove right about this horse, but let me leave one note: 123 pounds is nothing...I guess that I am getting old, but I remember when you had to carry 130 or more and win with some frequency at or close to that weight to be considered a great.
Dr. Fager...Forego...Kelso (although I don\'t put him up there with the others.)
They would all have dusted this character...and Rachel almost getting run down by Macho Again? They would have dusted her too. Maybe Zenyatta is a freak and would have stood a chance against them.