I live in Hot Springs, Arkansas and consider myself extremely lucky to be at the Superbowl for fillies. The Hot Springs newspaper today announced that at 10:00 am Thursday morning that a major announcement will be made regarding an historic horse race. The Apple Blossom will most likely pitt Rachel vs. Zenyatta in early April I believe. The partys concerned at Oaklawn Park are \"sworn to secrecy\", but they claim this will be the biggest stakes race in the 106 year history of Oaklawn Park. Calvin Borel claims to have no inside info concerning the match-up. The announcement at the Post Parade Room is by invitation only. I wonder what it could be. Go Rachel.
e-mail me, I am there this wkend - lets compare notes...
There are rumors of a BIG Purse spike if Z shows, Rachels shows, and they both show. Oaklawn at least gets the PR of they tried to pull it off, off their back.
Zenyatta gets the benefit of saying we came east, raced on dirt and where was Rachel. The shoe was on the other foot most of last year.
This is 60 days away and Rachel will not be ready.
if it happens, and anyone wants to attend, I will have the boat ready on Lake Hamilton for a pre-day race cruise and happy to host all TG folks...especially those who don\'t acknowledge that the Derby winner may be on the grounds!
Seriously, it\'s great fun there...let me know. Good luck to all in between...
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> This is 60 days away and Rachel will not be ready.
A Zenyatta/Rachel Alexandra match-up could indeed be a \"race for the ages\" but
I\'m not sure the timing is right for Rachel. After her grueling Woodward win
last Sept, Jess Jackson took her out of training for a long rest and said that,
unlike her 2009 campaign when she peaked in early spring, plans to bring her
along more slowly in 2010 and have her peak for the next Breeder\'s Cup. As per
the plan, she just had her first light breeze.
Zenyatta, though officially retired after her Breeder\'s Cup Classic win, has
actually remained in training.
As Jackson wants Rachel to be at her peak when she meets Zenyatta, I\'m thinking
the early April date of the Apple Blossom would give Zenyatta the condition edge
and Jackson would not be tempted to run his filly against her rival then,
regardless of how much Oaklawn raises the purse.
Bob
Forget the figs, if they run at OP, AND there is some other speed in the race, I\'m picking \"Z\". She loves that track, and will blow by the field. Let\'s hope they both come in on top of their game.
I\'m willing to wager 2 things heavily.
1.not happening at oaklawn
2.if and when it does happen Z will blow by the field,just won\'t blow by Rachel
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55201/5-million-lure-to-get-rachel-zenyatta
if i was the owners of the horses i wouldnt care one bit at this point if my horse was in top shape or not. you train and try your hardest and whoever wins, wins. the biggest idea is that theres nothing stopping them from running against each other again sometime in the near future thereafter especially with bc day being out east at churchill. i dont get the big deal, it will happen sometime this year and most likely multiple times. to both owners, go to oaklawn, TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN!
A MONEY race. This is sick....
ronwar Wrote:
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> http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55
> 201/5-million-lure-to-get-rachel-zenyatta
Apparently both owners seem interested. However, Jackson wisely has left himself a very big option out when he says \"If she is in top form and it fits in our schedule, we will be there\". As suspected, Rachel\'s condition relative to Zenyatta\'s will be the deciding factor.
Bob
Just my opinion, but Cella and Racing missed the boat here.
The race should have been the Oaklawn Handicap, and the purse should have been
whatever it takes to make it the richest race in the US, higher than the BC
Classic.
The connections of both Zen and RA have already shown their willingness to take
on males, and their runners have fared quite nicely thank you.
I am probably in the minority, but the prospect of a virtual match race between
the two superstars, with a field of lightly weighted competition (probably so
lightly weighted that none of the better American riders can make the weight)
does not hold much intrigue for me.
richiebee Wrote:
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> Just my opinion, but Cella and Racing missed the
> boat here.
>
> The race should have been the Oaklawn Handicap,
> and the purse should have been
> whatever it takes to make it the richest race in
> the US, higher than the BC
> Classic.
>
> The connections of both Zen and RA have already
> shown their willingness to take
> on males, and their runners have fared quite
> nicely thank you.
>
> I am probably in the minority, but the prospect of
> a virtual match race between
> the two superstars, with a field of lightly
> weighted competition (probably so
> lightly weighted that none of the better American
> riders can make the weight)
> does not hold much intrigue for me.
I agree with Richiebee here. If this were an open handicap, it could be an extremely intriguing race....would be interesting to see the weight assignments for a race like that. 30 years ago and more, the DRF regularly prominently featured major handicap weight assignments and there was a ton of good discussion about the weights. I miss those days. For a period of time, NY used to have a rule that the highweight had to carry 126 or more and that also led to interesting assignments....nowadays, handicaps are barely even handicaps. I wonder why they cannot go back to requiring that highweights carry at least 126 lbs?
It looks to me like the Apple Blossom is not going to be the race because Rachel Alexandra will not be ready yet (and I do not think you can begrudge her connections who probably would have planned things differently if they knew back in November/December that Zenyatta was going to race this year).
Everybody seems to be very excited about Oaklawn as the venue. Both fillies/mares like the surface, it is unequivocally a traditional dirt surface, there is none of the detention barn issues that plague a race in NY, I could go on....my point is that it would be a shame if the match up cannot happen at Oaklawn because the meet ends before it can happen. My question is why cant Oaklawn get permission for one extra saturday of racing a little later in the year. If Monmouth can create a special race for Big Brown, why can\'t Oaklawn do the same for one of the most anticipating match ups of most of our lifetimes? Make it open to all comers, encourage Euros and southern hemisphere horse to give it a shot...make a world renown panel of handicappers responsible for making the weight assignments. This could be a real special event that puts horseracing back on the map. Maybe have it coincide with something like the Belmont....imagine a horse going for the triple crown followed 45 minutes later by the greatest handicap of all time! I am feeling euphoric just imaging it. Also, if both are still in form by breeders cup, imagine the sensation that the breeders cup rematch will feel like!!?! I haven\'t felt this much excitement since Ali-Frazier (although I confess I still cannot watch the Ali-Norton, Yankee Stadium fight without crying because of the greatness of it -- but same is true of Secretariat\'s Belmont).
maybe they should hold it in NY so none of us can watch it!! =D or why dont we switch the race to turf and run backwards.. this is out of control! my money would be on MOOOOOOOON TOWN though! =D
Is Rachel fan is already making excuses for her loss, before she even gets beat?
Listen folks, Stevie boy has somewhere between 18-23 medication violations. If a guy with that kind of needle can\'t get a horse ready in 10 weeks, that horse doesn\'t deserve to be called the best ever.
Rachel fan, settle down. The only time RA looked vulnerable last year was when she ran hard early against the boys. If they come up with a small field of f&m at OP, RA might very well dictate the early stages and hold off Zenyatta. And no, that will not give Z an excuse. The time for excuses is over.
Michael D. Wrote:
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> Is Rachel fan is already making excuses for her
> loss, before she even gets beat?
>
> Listen folks, Stevie boy has somewhere between
> 18-23 medication violations. If a guy with that
> kind of needle can\'t get a horse ready in 10
> weeks, that horse doesn\'t deserve to be called the
> best ever.
>
> Rachel fan, settle down. The only time RA looked
> vulnerable last year was when she ran hard early
> against the boys. If they come up with a small
> field of f&m at OP, RA might very well dictate the
> early stages and hold off Zenyatta. And no, that
> will not give Z an excuse. The time for excuses is
> over.
How strange to see someone discounting a horse\'s form cycle on this forum, and stranger still to expect an owner to do the same in facing his horse\'s greatest
rival.
I haven\'t seen anyone declare himself a Rachel or Zenyatta fan on this thread, though I have been speculating whether Jackson will change all his plans and concede the condition advantage to his rival in such a crucial match-up. I have not speculated on who would win such a race - another topic for another thread altogether - but whether this race will even occur at this particular date.
Bob
Guys,
Don\'t believe Assmussen/Jackson will put Rachel on the track vs Z in less than top shape.On conditioning, not all horses need one before putting forward their best effort.Don\'t know about Rachel but many are able to fire their best shot first out.Not saying,you would not want a great horse or any horse to come out first time running neg-3.
When and if this race happens and if both are at their tops,I think many will be a bit surprised at the outcome. Z needs to get faster or get \"help\" to beat the Rachel that ran last year,ALL THINGS EQUAL!Again, not biased but how do Z fans think she will make out in a two horse race?
Mike
If this happens,fine, but if we end up with Bayakoa/Go for Wand, this already dying sport may never recover...
Would Rachel be the first mare to not develop from 3 to 4 ??? Or even pair up? I think not. What do the sire #\'s indicate or is the sample quite small ?
A match in late spring,A re-match mid-late summer,and hopefully the rubber
comes at the BC Classic.I would think it prudent for both parties to allow
these gals to get 1 tuner under their belts before jumping into the frying pan.
Jackson and Co. couldn\'t have anticipated Z staying in the game and their long range plan to win the BC Classic(and HOTY again)probably won\'t be turned upside
down.Ideally both of them getting it on Derby day,then possibly the Whitney with
the added intrigue of the males and then culminating in the BC Classic.The excitement would be near incalculable to think of these two meeting at the Classic
with 1 victory each not to mention throw in the Euros et al.Imagine the possibilty
of having the Derby winner,BC Classic defending champ,The top older males from
any continent,and oh yeah The best horse on the Planet getting it on?Pardon my foolish outburst,but I think my nipples just got hard.
mjs
bobphilo Wrote:
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> Michael D. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Is Rachel fan is already making excuses for her
> > loss, before she even gets beat?
> >
> > Listen folks, Stevie boy has somewhere between
> > 18-23 medication violations. If a guy with that
> > kind of needle can\'t get a horse ready in 10
> > weeks, that horse doesn\'t deserve to be called
> the
> > best ever.
> >
> > Rachel fan, settle down. The only time RA
> looked
> > vulnerable last year was when she ran hard
> early
> > against the boys. If they come up with a small
> > field of f&m at OP, RA might very well dictate
> the
> > early stages and hold off Zenyatta. And no,
> that
> > will not give Z an excuse. The time for excuses
> is
> > over.
>
> How strange to see someone discounting a horse\'s
> form cycle on this forum, and stranger still to
> expect an owner to do the same in facing his
> horse\'s greatest
> rival.
RA will have been in training for nearly 2.5 months. If one wants to argue that she can\'t be in good form by the OP race, fine, but that\'s a strike against her ability (her greatness if you will). Rachel can\'t run in a prep on March 3, nearly two months after they started the discussions, then run fast a month later? Come on folks, this wasn\'t a 3 week notice and a race in January. It\'s two and a half months.
If I were to make a form cycle excuse, and I\'m not, I would argue that Rachel has a better shot of exploding in early April of her 4 yr old season after nearly two and a half months of training than Zenyatta does at age 6.
If they think there\'s a health risk, by all means, keep Rachel in the barn. If not, she needs to run.
>I haven\'t seen anyone declare himself a Rachel or
> Zenyatta fan on this thread, though I have been
> speculating whether Jackson will change all his
> plans and concede the condition advantage to his
> rival in such a crucial match-up. I have not
> speculated on who would win such a race - another
> topic for another thread altogether - but whether
> this race will even occur at this particular
> date.
>
> Bob
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> bobphilo Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Michael D. Wrote:
>>>
>
> RA will have been in training for nearly 2.5
> months. If one wants to argue that she can\'t be in
> good form by the OP race, fine, but that\'s a
> strike against her ability (her greatness if you
> will). Rachel can\'t run in a prep on March 3,
> nearly two months after they started the
> discussions, then run fast a month later? Come on
> folks, this wasn\'t a 3 week notice and a race in
> January. It\'s two and a half months.
>
> If I were to make a form cycle excuse, and I\'m
> not, I would argue that Rachel has a better shot
> of exploding in early April of her 4 yr old season
> after nearly two and a half months of training
> than Zenyatta does at age 6.
>
> If they think there\'s a health risk, by all means,
> keep Rachel in the barn. If not, she needs to run.
Once again, the purpose of my post was not to predict whether RA can beat Z on 60 days training, though I doubt she would be in her top form. I was talking about whether Jackson would want to face Z this early in her form cycle given his plans for her and whether we should seriously expect to see them meet in the Apple Blossom.
You are right when you say that she was able to reach top form by early Spring last year, but Jackson has specifically stated that he does NOT want her to peak that early this year but to peak by BC time. He also reiterated that while he was interested in Oaklawn\'s offer, he would only run if she was in top form and it did not conflict with her scheduled plans. Yes, Rachel does need to run, but why face her toughest rival first or second crack out of the box when the plan was to have her peak much later for the Breeder\'s Cup?
I can understand all the excitement of the 2 meeting early at Oaklawn, but given the timing and Jackson\'s plans this may turn out to be much ado about something that will not happen - at least not in April. Jackson may agree to run if Moss takes him up on the offer he made last year and make this part of a 3 race series with 1 or 2 rubber matches. Otherwise, I\'m not getting worked up over expecting to see the 2 great fillies/mares meet this early. I think Flighted Iron\'s post suggests a much more likely, and preferable scenario.
Bob
Anybody got any thoughts on the Donn?
Sample size is way too small.. How much more can she develop anyway? Ghostzapper is the fastest horse of all time going two turns at negative 6.5\'s! Development this year = more consistent top numbers (neg 3-4s)!
Thanks Bob.Minus the anatomy part naturally.
mjs
About the Donn and since you asked, I still think QR is going to have a great year and will win this race. I like DOM to run well here. He\'s young and could move up one more notch. MM is interesting, too. I wil probably play QR with those two for starters. I should watch replay, but don\'t thing QR was asked for all of it in last...
Leamas
Dr. Bill made a nice post in a different thread. I like QR to win and DOM and MM to fill in the exacta. If QR didn\'t use too much winning the last (and I don\'t think he did), I think he wins by a few lengths and continues a big 4-yr-old campaign.
Leamas